NFL SKELETON SYSTEM
This is the offensive/defensive production analysis I mentioned in my Week 11 thread. I'm going to start a separate accounting thread for this very experiment. This is what I believe to be a unique form of analysis for the NFL that I came up with in Week 1 of this 2014 season while I was watching a replay of the Tennessee-Kansas City game.
The concept is to find a way to go through the play by play of each possession in a game and eliminate the "fluff" that ends up skewing the final score of a game. The end result is hopefully a stripped-down, more accurate view of the true production of each team on offense and defense.
My calculations are converted into a "true" point spread for each game that I can compare to the actual line to find hidden value. I actually have seven different calculations going into this work that produces four separate point spreads. I'll also be tracking another variation of those four point spreads to end up with eight overall. Confused yet?
I'll be tracking all eight variations of this work right here on my blog and also a couple internet forums in hopes this stuff pans out and becomes useful to many people and possibly in many ways. This is all uncharted territory as far as the results it produces.
"Skeleton System" is a fitting name because the essence of the work is to uncover the bare bones of a team's performance.
It took me all season to go through the thousands of drive charts for the first ten weeks, while still keeping up with my normal handicapping schedule. I finally finished this past week and just tonight ran the numbers for Week 11 which concluded hours ago with the Monday nighter. In the coming weeks I'll be going back to the prior weeks and running the numbers to get all the 2014 results as I find the time.
In the matchups below, I show each game for Week 11, the four different lines that the work produced (L1,L2,L3,L4), the actual closing line (act) based on 5dimes and my situational angles (sit) that I feel identify some of the most important NFL situations out there. These situations have been a big part of my past handicapping results and they have proven their merit as you can see from my posted forum record over the years. I rank the sits 1, 2 or 3 with 1 being minor, 2 being strong and 3 being very strong. I also included a temporary 1.5 category for fairly strong.
WEEK 11 matchups
My goal is to compare the difference of each produced line versus the actual line and also whether or not it agreed or opposed any situational angles and how strong those angles were. The results from Week 11 are below. Yes, there's going to be a lot of results. All records are against the actual closing line at 5Dimes.
L1 - all with edge: 11-3.......with line diff of 5.0+: 4-0
L1 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 4-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-0.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L2 - all with edge: 9-5.......with line diff of 3.5+: 5-1
L2 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
L3 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 6.2+: 3-0
L3 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
L4 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 2.5+: 7-5
L4 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-0.......0: 3-1.......-1: 2-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 0-0
A second, and slight, variation of everything (not pictured in the matchups).
L1 - all with edge: 10-4.......with line diff of 3.0+: 6-1
L1 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 3-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-1.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L2 - all with edge: 10-4.......with line diff of 4.0+: 4-0
L2 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L3 - all with edge: 9-5.......with line diff of 5.3+: 4-0
L3 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L4 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 2.4+: 7-3
L4 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
Keep in mind none of these results are backfitted. I am discovering the value of the system as I go through each week (and it could turn out to be a colossal waste of time). Right off the bat from Week 11 are encouraging signs. All eight variations had positive records if you played every single game on the card with the first L1 leading the way at a robust 11-3 ats. If the line produced is five or more points better than the actual line, the record was 4-0 ats. With an agreement from the situational angles, it went 7-1 ats.
Before this weekend's games I'll post all the fresh data on my regular weekly post as well as separately here to keep this project together. I'm also going to try to go back and run the numbers for Week 10 also. Hopefully each week I can get a prior week done until I catch up to date.
This is the offensive/defensive production analysis I mentioned in my Week 11 thread. I'm going to start a separate accounting thread for this very experiment. This is what I believe to be a unique form of analysis for the NFL that I came up with in Week 1 of this 2014 season while I was watching a replay of the Tennessee-Kansas City game.
The concept is to find a way to go through the play by play of each possession in a game and eliminate the "fluff" that ends up skewing the final score of a game. The end result is hopefully a stripped-down, more accurate view of the true production of each team on offense and defense.
My calculations are converted into a "true" point spread for each game that I can compare to the actual line to find hidden value. I actually have seven different calculations going into this work that produces four separate point spreads. I'll also be tracking another variation of those four point spreads to end up with eight overall. Confused yet?
I'll be tracking all eight variations of this work right here on my blog and also a couple internet forums in hopes this stuff pans out and becomes useful to many people and possibly in many ways. This is all uncharted territory as far as the results it produces.
"Skeleton System" is a fitting name because the essence of the work is to uncover the bare bones of a team's performance.
It took me all season to go through the thousands of drive charts for the first ten weeks, while still keeping up with my normal handicapping schedule. I finally finished this past week and just tonight ran the numbers for Week 11 which concluded hours ago with the Monday nighter. In the coming weeks I'll be going back to the prior weeks and running the numbers to get all the 2014 results as I find the time.
In the matchups below, I show each game for Week 11, the four different lines that the work produced (L1,L2,L3,L4), the actual closing line (act) based on 5dimes and my situational angles (sit) that I feel identify some of the most important NFL situations out there. These situations have been a big part of my past handicapping results and they have proven their merit as you can see from my posted forum record over the years. I rank the sits 1, 2 or 3 with 1 being minor, 2 being strong and 3 being very strong. I also included a temporary 1.5 category for fairly strong.
WEEK 11 matchups
| sit | act | L1 | L2 | L3 | L4 | |||
| 1 | Buffalo | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 10.1 | ||
| Miami | -4.0 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -6.1 | -10.1 | |||
| 1 | Houston | 4.0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | ||
| Cleveland | -4.0 | -3.6 | -5.2 | -3.7 | -7.0 | |||
| Minnesota | 2.5 | -0.6 | -4.5 | -3.3 | -11.0 | |||
| Chicago | -2.5 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 11.0 | |||
| Philadelphia | 4.5 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 12.6 | |||
| Green Bay | -4.5 | -2.5 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -12.6 | |||
| Seattle | -1.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 5.4 | |||
| Kansas City | 1.0 | -9.0 | -5.9 | -11.6 | -5.4 | |||
| Atlanta | -2.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 0.3 | |||
| 1 | Carolina | 2.5 | -4.2 | -1.8 | -5.1 | -0.3 | ||
| 2 | Cincinnati | 9.0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 15.9 | ||
| New Orleans | -9.0 | -8.7 | -10.4 | -12.5 | -15.9 | |||
| 2 | Tampa Bay | 7.0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.8 | ||
| Washington | -7.0 | -6.2 | -6.8 | -6.5 | -7.8 | |||
| Denver | -8.0 | -5.9 | -10.3 | -11.9 | -20.8 | |||
| 1 | St. Louis | 8.0 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 20.8 | ||
| San Francisco | -3.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -4.1 | |||
| 1 | NY Giants | 3.5 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.1 | ||
| Detroit | -1.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | |||
| Arizona | 1.0 | -4.5 | -3.6 | -5.2 | -3.3 | |||
| New England | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | |||
| 1.5 | Indianapolis | -3.0 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 0.1 | -0.5 | ||
| 2 | Oakland | 10.0 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 4.7 | -4.6 | ||
| San Diego | -10.0 | -4.9 | -0.2 | -4.7 | 4.6 | |||
| Pittsburgh | -7.0 | -4.5 | -6.0 | -10.1 | -13.0 | |||
| 1 | Tennessee | 7.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 13.0 |
My goal is to compare the difference of each produced line versus the actual line and also whether or not it agreed or opposed any situational angles and how strong those angles were. The results from Week 11 are below. Yes, there's going to be a lot of results. All records are against the actual closing line at 5Dimes.
L1 - all with edge: 11-3.......with line diff of 5.0+: 4-0
L1 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 4-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-0.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L2 - all with edge: 9-5.......with line diff of 3.5+: 5-1
L2 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
L3 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 6.2+: 3-0
L3 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
L4 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 2.5+: 7-5
L4 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-0.......0: 3-1.......-1: 2-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 0-0
A second, and slight, variation of everything (not pictured in the matchups).
L1 - all with edge: 10-4.......with line diff of 3.0+: 6-1
L1 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 3-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-1.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L2 - all with edge: 10-4.......with line diff of 4.0+: 4-0
L2 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L3 - all with edge: 9-5.......with line diff of 5.3+: 4-0
L3 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-1.......0: 2-2.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0
L4 - all with edge: 8-6.......with line diff of 2.4+: 7-3
L4 - with sit categories.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-1.......0: 3-1.......-1: 1-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0
Keep in mind none of these results are backfitted. I am discovering the value of the system as I go through each week (and it could turn out to be a colossal waste of time). Right off the bat from Week 11 are encouraging signs. All eight variations had positive records if you played every single game on the card with the first L1 leading the way at a robust 11-3 ats. If the line produced is five or more points better than the actual line, the record was 4-0 ats. With an agreement from the situational angles, it went 7-1 ats.
Before this weekend's games I'll post all the fresh data on my regular weekly post as well as separately here to keep this project together. I'm also going to try to go back and run the numbers for Week 10 also. Hopefully each week I can get a prior week done until I catch up to date.
I also show my situational analysis (sit) graded 0 for none, 1 for minor, 2 for strong and 3 for very strong. I also have a temporary category at 1.5 for semi-strong which may end up a 1 or a 2 down the road.
