Will the Bears trade the No. 1 NFL draft pick? Three potential offers
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 pick for the 2023 NFL draft after a 3-14 season. But with their quarterback situation seemingly set with Justin Fields and a plethora of other needs, there will be a lot of talk about the Bears trying to move down the draft board and trade the top pick to a quarterback-needy franchise before they are on the clock in April.
The top selection has been dealt 12 times since 1967, most recently in 2016, when the Rams jumped up to pick quarterback Jared Goff. Teams making calls to Chicago general manager Ryan Poles will also be looking to slide into the No. 1 spot to take a quarterback. As many as seven teams currently holding a top-10 selection could be looking for a new signal-caller, and four quarterbacks in this 2023 class are currently projected to be early first-round selections. Will a team fall in love with one of them as its QB of the future and deal valuable assets to ensure he lands on its roster? We took a closer look at the situation.
NFL draft analyst Matt Miller canvased more than a half-dozen scouts, coaches and executives from around the NFL to come up with three sensible offers for the top pick -- though no personnel affiliated with the involved teams weighed in. Bears reporter Courtney Cronin weighed in on each from Chicago's perspective and broke down the cases for and against Chicago trading out of the slot. What could the Bears really get in return from a team wanting to pick first?
Chicago's case for trading the pick
Poles holds the keys to one of the most pivotal offseasons in Bears history, and he could not have scripted a better scenario for his second draft running the show. At least four teams holding a top-10 pick definitely need a quarterback -- Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers -- and Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle could join them if they opt for a change under center. One of those clubs might be willing to depart with assets to skip the line and take the draft board guesswork out of the picture. And unlike 2022, there are multiple passers who have a chance to go No. 1 overall this year, including Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Kentucky's Will Levis.
That means Poles might have the opportunity to trade the No. 1 pick, still land a franchise-caliber player at a position of need and bring in more picks down the board and/or in future classes. That's a win.
This would be a different decision if Fields hadn't taken the next step this past season, but he appears to be their franchise quarterback after a sophomore breakout. Poles reaffirmed his commitment to Fields last month and said he would have to be "blown away" to pivot course and draft a QB to replace the second-year starter. Fields is far from a finished product, but unless Poles believes he can find a major upgrade, the Bears' best course of action is to build the roster around their current signal-caller.
Fields saw his Total QBR jump more than 20 points from 2021 to 2022 (54.0). And despite missing two games, he finished with 1,143 rushing yards, the second-most in the league. But there's plenty of room for improvement, and Poles may be able to accelerate that process by increasing his draft capital through a trade.
Chicago has holes to fill at nearly every position on both sides of the ball, which could be addressed with added draft picks. The passing offense ranked 32nd in the NFL with just 130.5 yards per game. No other team had fewer receptions from the wide receiver position group (121), and Chicago allowed the league's fourth-most sacks with 58. Defensively, only the Lions allowed more yards per play than the Bears' 6.1, and Chicago gave up a league-high 27.2 points per game.
It should be a busy offseason for the Bears, who also lead the league in salary cap space. If Chicago is able to make a trade but remain in the top few picks, there's a good chance it can still land Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter or Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who would each immediately help improve on a league-low 20 sacks in 2022. In that scenario, Chicago would add an elite prospect and then have a third season to evaluate Fields. -- Cronin
Potential offers that make sense
Indianapolis Colts
The offer: No. 4 overall, a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounderThis is the trade scenario I laid out in my recent two-round mock draft following conversations at the Senior Bowl with various front-office personnel. The overwhelming feedback was that the Bears won't get a king's ransom for the No. 1 pick but that Indianapolis had the best situation in terms of draft capital and trading the pick out of the NFC.
It's not a huge return, but it keeps the Bears in contention to draft one of the top two defenders in the class, Carter and Anderson. And that is arguably the most important scenario for Poles and coach Matt Eberflus in a draft class that does not have a consensus top-five player at left tackle or wide receiver. Given the high number of needs on the Bears' roster -- one pro scout estimates there could be nearly 20 starter spots that need upgrading -- getting the extra three choices is big. But staying in range for Carter or Anderson is why this package is intriguing. -- Miller
Bears' angle: Eberflus deemed the 3-technique/interior defensive line position "the engine that makes everything go" on the Chicago roster, and drafting Carter at No. 4 would instantly shore up the NFL's worst pass rush and help slow opponents' run games.
And as things stand, Chicago has a 53-pick gap between No. 1 and its next pick in the draft at No. 54, acquired from the Ravens in the Roquan Smith deadline trade. Poles showed patience in staying put in the first three rounds last year, but that's a long time to wait with this many needs. The early second-round pick here (35th overall) allows the Bears to get back into the early part of Round 2 after they parted ways with their own second-round selection when trading for Chase Claypool in November. -- Cronin
Houston Texans
The offer: No. 2 overall, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounderIf this trade looks familiar to Bears' fans, it's because it mirrors the deal the team made in 2017 to slide up a spot to draft Mitch Trubisky at No. 2 overall. A personnel director expressed to me at the Senior Bowl that because there is no sure-thing quarterback at the top of this draft, the Bears won't be able to ask for "an Eli Manning-like" trade.
Like the Colts' suggested offer, this package keeps the Bears in the running for either Anderson or Carter. But this one is particularly interesting because Chicago could actually be in a position to trade back again. While this doesn't happen often in the NFL draft, it's common in the NBA lottery. The Bears slide back to No. 2 overall and then immediately put that pick up for trade to another quarterback-hungry franchise. Sometimes trades in the NFL aren't just about the picks you get in that year or future years but also how many extra picks you can turn those selections into once the dust settles. -- Miller
Bears' angle: Poles was aggressive in April 2022, pulling off four trades on Day 3 that yielded five additional players. And yes, a trade back to No. 2 could end up presenting another opportunity for Chicago to move back again in the first round and still stay within the top 10. Flipping picks for additional draft capital would allow Poles to address more needs with immediate impact players and longer-term projects. The GM and his staff have already shown a keen eye for finding Day 3 talent: Five of Chicago's rookies taken in Rounds 4 to 7 played in at least 15 games in 2022. -- Cronin
Carolina Panthers
The offer: No. 9 overall, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2024 third-rounderThis is the most lucrative trade for the Bears in terms of draft capital received, but it also puts the team way out of position to land the top defenders in the class. At No. 9, the Bears could instead be looking at pass-rushers Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Myles Murphy (Clemson), and there's no guarantee even those two are still on the board.
One former NFL general manager told me, "Anytime you trade back that far, you can't be certain who will still be on the board. So you have to be really comfortable with the draft class as a whole and with your roster having enough needs that you can still get an impact player out of the first round. The Bears fit that model well with the needs they have."
It's a risk, but the payoff might be the best for the future of the team. The future first- and third-rounders would give Chicago a chance to attack a 2024 class that, from an early perspective, looks stronger overall. -- Miller
Bears' angle: No. 9 could also be the sweet spot to add offensive line help. Would Northwestern's Peter Skoronski, Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. or Georgia's Broderick Jones be available and make sense? Chicago could add one of them and move Braxton Jones to right tackle next season.
And since we're talking about Carolina, I'll take this trade scenario one step further. The Panthers have a lot of young talent that could fit nicely to the nucleus in Chicago. If the Panthers packaged an immediate impact player into a deal, the Bears might consider a trade that yields less picks. -- Cronin
Chicago's case for keeping the pick
Staying at No. 1 would not necessarily be an indictment of how the Bears feel about Fields' potential. If a team in search of a quarterback believes the 23-year-old could be its answer and is willing to part ways with ample draft capital or quality players in the process, Poles would be hard pressed to turn that down, especially if trading Fields yields multiple first-round picks.Fields was drafted 11th overall in 2021 before Poles and Eberflus arrived. Every general manager wants the opportunity to pick a quarterback he or she believes can lead the team to a championship, unless they believe that quarterback is already on the roster. Poles could select Young, Stroud or Levis and then have five years of that rookie contract to build a contender. But he must be confident that moving away from Fields means there's a true franchise quarterback available in the class. Few GMs have the chance to see multiple quarterback projects through. In 2017, former Bears GM Ryan Pace traded up one spot to No. 2 to draft Trubisky, whom Chicago moved on from after four seasons before drafting Fields. Pace was fired following a 6-11 season in 2021.
There is one more scenario here, too: The Bears can move forward with Fields and still hang onto the No. 1 pick. Maybe they won't like any of the trade offers they receive. It takes two teams to make a trade, and there's no guarantee that another franchise is willing to lose valuable assets to make it happen. It's conceivable to believe that Chicago would just draft Carter or Anderson first overall -- and since those two are right at the top of most draft boards, this would be far from an overdraft. -- Cronin
