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MNF PICK

SD -4 CHI


General Consensus:


CHI 53%
SD 47%


Interior stats:


There's 10 people in the betting pool that select under 45% so far in the NFL this year, 7 of those (70%) have the CHI. There's 6 people in the betting pool that select 57.5% or better in the NFL this year so far, 5 of those have SD. There's 26 people in the betting pool that select under 45% in this type of game situation, 16 (61%) have CHI. There's 16 people in the betting pool that select 57.5% or better in this type of game situation, 11 of those (69%) have SD.


Conclusion: SD -4
 

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Where are you getting your consensus numbers from? I think the split is closer to 65/35 in favor of SD.
 

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TNF. Another week of NFL kicks off tonight with an intriguing matchup.


NYJ -2 BUF


General Consensus:


BUF 36%
NYJ 64%


Interior Stats:


There's 22 people in the betting pool that select under 50% in the NFL this year so far, 14 of them (63.6%) have NYJ. There's 15 people in this betting pool that select under 45% in their chosen team's game situation. 9 of them (60%) have NYJ.


One other key element to this game is that the spread moved off the key number of 3 even though every consensus everywhere has the NYJ as the predominant public favorite. When spreads move off of key numbers like that as to make all NYJ players to win the bet as long as NYJ win by 3, my gut tingles.


Conclusion: BUF +2 (I am buying the point to get +3).


Good Luck.
 

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29 - 19 coming in. Here are the games I like the best, anyone else who uses the tool may find other games to like as well, these are the ones that jumped out at me.



CAR -3.5 TEN


General Consensus:


CAR 62%
TEN 38%


Interior Stats:


Of the bettors who select under 45% in the NFL this year, 72% of them have CAR. Of the bettors who select 50 - 53% in the NFL this year, 70% of those have CAR. Of the bettors who select 57.5% or better in the NFL this year, 67% of them have TEN. The people who struggle in this type of game situation this season have CAR, the ones who excel in it are more heavily on TEN.


Conclusion: TEN +3.5
****************************************************************************************************

STL -7 CHI


General Consensus:


CHI 47%
STL 53%


Interior Stats:


54% of the NFL Students (under 45% win percentage) who picked this game have STL. 60% of the NFL Sharks (57.5% or better win percentage) have CHI. The game situation favors Chicago greatly as the ones who struggle with home/favs/7 - 9.5 have STL and the ones who excel in road/dog/7 - 9.5 have CHI.


Conclusion: CHI +7 (I am buying the hook here)

*********************************************************************************************************

NO -1 WASH


General Consensus:


NO 57%
WAS 43%


Interior Stats:


60% of the Students on this game have NO, 60% of the sharks on the game have WASH. The game situation stats are mixed, but 70% of the NFL Mid-Men (pick 50 - 53%) are on NO.


Conclusion: WASH +1

******************************************************************************************************

DEN -3.5 KC


General Consensus:


KC 47%
DEN 53%


Interior Stats:


70% of the NFL students on this game have DEN, 67% of the NFL sharks on this game have KC. The game situation stats are split down the middle at 50/50. Some other Vegas sharps I know also ran to bet KC early when the line was +6.


Conclusion: KC +3.5


Good Luck. I make be back later with a late game or too. Lets continue the profit.
 
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Please don't promote your site here in the Sub Forums.

We have a Site Promotions Forum for that.

Thanks & GL
 

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Won't happen again, and thanks, Betall

Adding two games at 4:


Oak - 3 Min


General Consensus:


Min 38%
Oak 62%


Interior Stats:


Of the people in the betting pool that select under 50% this year in the NFL, 67% of them have Oak. 80% of the Sharks in the betting pool have Min. The game situation stats on Min bettors is way better than the game situation stats of Oak bettors.


Conclusion : Min +3 (I am buying the hook)
**********************************************
SEA -3 ARI


General consensus:


ARI 42%
SEA 58%


Interior Stats:


Of the NFL Students who picked this game, 70% of them have ARI. 60% of the Sharks who picked the game have SEA. The game situation Sharks are 67% on SEA as well.


Conclusion : SEA -3 (I am buying 1/2 point here).


NBA coming soon.
 

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Worse case scenario will end the day 4 - 2, if Sea gets their head out of their ass maybe 5 - 1.
 

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I've never felt so disappointed with a 4 - 2 before. Eh, I'll get over it. Moves the record to 33 - 21 (61.1%). If you notice, in not one of any of my write-ups did I mention any game trends, injuries, team facts, head up records, weather, time zone changes, non of that. All of that is already in the calculation of the line. My information is detailed betting demographics on each game, with each opinion assessed and applied the proper weight. That's not in their calculation of the spread. My personal NFL picks I've made without using the betting demographics are 51%. That's a 10 point increase and a 20% change in results.
 

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33 - 21 comin
g in.


MNF


CIN -10 HOU


General Consensus:


HOU 51%
CIN 49%


Interior Stats:


65% of the NFL Students like HOU, 69% of the NFL middlemen like HOU, and 75% of the NFL sharks like CIN. The game situation stats are mixed.


Conclusion: CIN -10 (I am buying the half point here down to 9.5)
 

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TNF


33 - 22 coming in


JAX -3 TEN


General Consensus:


TEN 37%
JAX 63%


Interior Stats:


SPORT WINNING %


21 STUDENTS (under 45%): JAX 52% 11/10
16 WANNABES (45 - 49.9%): JAX 75% 12/4
13 MID-MEN (50 - 53.9%): JAX 69% 9/4
3 BALLERS (54 - 57.4%): JAX 66% 2/1
7 SHARKS (57.5% & UP): JAX 57% 4/3


GAME SITUATION WINNING %


31 STUDENTS: 64% JAX 20/11
5 WANNABES: 80% JAX 4/1
8 MID-MEN: 62% JAX 5/3
5 BALLERS: 100% JAX 5/0
13 SHARKS: 61% TEN 8/5


Looking over these betting demographics, I have to conclude that TEN +3 is the better play tonight based on the psychology of the average bettors. I am going to buy the half point cause I think the game will be that close.
 

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33 - 23 coming in


ATL -3.5 IND


General Consensus:


IND 42%
ATL 58%


Interior Stats:


66% of the NFL Students are on ATL, 61% of the NFL Middle-Men are on the Students, and 75% of the NFL sharks are on IND. Game Situation records favor Indy also.


Conclusion: INDY +3.5
*************************************************************************************************


DEN -2 CHI


General Consensus:


DEN 47%
CHI 53%


Interior Stats:


60% of the NFL Students have CHI, and 100% of the NFL Sharks have DEN.


Conclusion: Denver -2
****************************************************************************************************


DAL -2..5 MIA


General Consensus:


DAL 39%
MIA 61%


Interior Stats:


53% of the NFL Students are on DAL, 54% of the NFL Middle-Men are on DAL, and 67% of the NFL sharks are on MIA. Game Situation records favor MIA as well.


Conclusion: MIA +2.5 (buying up to 3)
***********************************************************************************************


MIN -1 GB


General Consensus:

GB 57%
MIN 43%


Interior Stats:


67% of the NFL Students are on GB, 67% of the NFL sharks are on MIN. The Game situation records heavily favor MIN as well.


Conclusion: MIN -1
*******************************************************************************************

NYJ -4 HOU


General Consensus:


NYJ 61%
HOU 39%


Interior Stats:


60% of the NFL Students are on NYJ, 66% of the NFL Middle-Men are on the NYJ, the sharks are split 50/50 but the game situation records favor HOU heavily.


Conclusion: HOU +4


Good Luck. If any of the late games shape up as a play I will be back.
 

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35 - 25 NFL record.


Looking at the demographics for tonight's game, there is evidence to take BUF. However, NE is one of those teams that you just can't bet against right now. Laying off tonight and looking forward to Thursday.
 

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35 - 25 coming in


DET -2.5 PHI


General Consensus:


PHI 40%
DET 60%


Interior Stats:


100% of the NFL Students have DET. 55% of the NFL Middle-Men have DET. The Game situation records are much stronger among the PHI opinions.


Conclusion: PHI +2.5 (I am buying up to 3)


GB -8.5 CHI


General Consensus:


CHI 36%
GB 64%


Interior Stats:


75% of the NFL Students have GB. 64% of the NFL Middle-Men have GB. 100% of the NFL Sharks have CHI. The Game Situation records are much stronger among the CHI opinions.


Conclusion: CHI +8.5
 

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36 - 26 coming in


HOU -3 NO


General Consensus:


NO 29%
HOU 71%


Interior Stats:


83% of NFL Students have HOU, 54% of NFL Middle-Men have HOU, the game situation records point toward NO.


Conclusion: NO +3 (I am buying the half point)
********************************************************************************************************

ATL -2 MIN


General Consensus:


Min 48%
ATL 52%


Interior Stats:


67% of NFL Students have MIN. 61% of NFL Middle-Men have MIN. 100% of NFL sharks have ATL. Game Situation records point toward ATL as well.


Conclusion: ATL -2
******************************************************************************************************

NYG -1 WAS


General Consensus:


NYG 60%
WAS 40%


Interior Stats:


67% of NFL Students have NYG. 71% of NFL Middle-Men have NYG. 100% of NFL Sharks have WAS.


Conclusion: WAS +1
****************************************************************************************************

JAX -5 SD


General Consensus:


SD 43%
JAX 57%

Interior Stats:


The Students are split 50/50, but the Sharks are 100% on JAX.


Conclusion: JAX -5
***************************************************************************************************

ARI -9 SF


General Consensus:


ARI 67%
SF 33%


Interior Stats:


83% of NFL Students have ARI. 57% of NFL Middle-Men have ARI. The Sharks are split, but the game situation records favor SF.


Conclusion: SF +9


Good Luck.
 

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If anybody is interested in a free contest starting week 13 check out my post in website promotions.
 

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Tonight is one of those NFL games where you ignore all stats and all handicapping info. GB has the revenge factor in their favor. GB is the team that is playing for something. GB has the better QB. Any consensus you check has the Public on GB, but for some reason the line is shrinking.
In this situation, you follow the money and the money is going on DET.

Conclusion: DET +2.5 (I am buying a point to 3.5)


Good Luck.
 

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Tonight is one of those NFL games where you ignore all stats and all handicapping info. GB has the revenge factor in their favor. GB is the team that is playing for something. GB has the better QB. Any consensus you check has the Public on GB, but for some reason the line is shrinking.
In this situation, you follow the money and the money is going on DET.

Conclusion: DET +2.5 (I am buying a point to 3.5)


Good Luck.

w-thumbs!^
 

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