NFL Preseason-Week 3

[ESQAJM]

Well, week 2 was a lot better than week 1. But I am still -5.5 units for the season. Only 2 weeks to make it up.My system seems to be heavy on OVERS this week (See Pops69 post for a good explanation why)

I’m not going to bother with the lower rated games, except Dallas/Houston. I have the side (Dallas) and the total (UNDER) because both plays bordered on 3*. To be conservative I’ve listed them as 2*.

Based on Pops69 theory all of the OVER bets should be placed immediately. Also I like to place my bets early in the week as soon as the lines come out as I find whenever there is a line move, 80% of the time it moves against me.

I have a lot of teasers this week as the total lines are high for preseason and I want to reduce the numbers.

My picks for week 3 are:

San Diego........O43...............3*
KC ................ O44 ..............3*
Denver ...........O42.5.............3*
Dallas ........... U38 ................2*
Dallas .............- 4.5 .............2*
6 point teaser:

Dallas ........... U 44
Dallas .............+1.5 .............2*


San Diego........O 37
KC ................ O 38..............3*

KC ................ O 38
Denver ...........O 36.5............3*

San Diego........O 37
Denver ...........O 36.5............3*
10 point teaser:

Denver .......... O 32,5
KC ................ O 34
San Diego ...... O 33 ..............3*
RESULTS TO DATE

1/2*.................1-0
1*....................1-1
2*....................3-5
3*....................4-4
4*....................1-1
Good Luck

ESQAJM

 

[hansenbros.]

ajm

strong comeback my friend -- was with you on the boys on monday -- BIG! keep up the good work!


gl

 

[ESQAJM]

Hey Hansen, your post made my day. To bad a play like Dallas Mon nite only comes up once every 3 years. Are you warming up for the real games?
ESQAJM

 

[bblight]

The problem with placing bets early on a preseason game is that many coaching decisions that would impact the outcome of a game aren't made until late in the week.

Letting starters play for an extra quarter while the other team plays third stringers can affect a side play, or focusing on a defense that played sub-parr the week before can impact a side play ior a total.

With line changes being so volatile, I understand the need to take advantage when the opportunity is there, but I personnally feel that any advantage is offset by last minute coaching decisions.

Good oluck I hope you kick the mans a$$.

 

[ESQAJM]

BB: My system takes the coaches last minute decisions into consideration even before the decisions are made. That's why I made the statement that "80% of the time the line moves against me"
ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

nice work guy. in the past years i have not bet on week #3 in PS, as it was the week in which the line maker start hitting the mark.

so far this week, no o/u line and gone down, and most have gone up, with a few up very much.

the one thing that you should keep an eye on is the fact that last week was the only time in the past few years that we had more overs than unders 9-7. and also in prev years, the odds makers would adjust the opening line based on avg scoring patterns. but this year for week #3 they kept it the same as week #2 at 37.6 when the avg score for week #2 was 41, and it appears that the moves will still continue to the up side.

other that already betting the steelers over, i'm not sure if i plan to make anyother week #3 bets. but if they continue to go much higher i'm going to take a good hard look at the unders around game time, as this could be a week where the betters get their heads cut off.

glta

 

[ESQAJM]

Pops: You are right. Besides my Dallas play, the 3 games I'm betting on have very high totals for preseason. That makes me nervous. But the trends are very strong for a high scoring game in all three.

To counter this most of my money will be on teasers which brings down the total to a reasonable number.

Im surprised to hear you say that you don't like betting in week 3, as this is probably the best week for me.

I seem to remember that you live in Henderson, Nv. I spend 2 weeks there every year at the end of Feb. Maybe we can get together to discuss handicapping?
ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

anytime esqajm (what do those letters stand for?) I live on the otherside of LV. had a condo in henderson when my son when to college at unlv almost 15 years ago. just move from Queensridge, next to the suncoast, but now live north of the sante fe station station off the 95 fwy. i suncoast treated me great, and i hated the sfs when i first moved because of the bet limits, but now they take very good care of me.

as for week #3 on nfl ps, it falls so close to the cfb, and that keeps me very busy in my pow thread. i normally dont bet any sides, and usually o/u, and w3 has been a week where the lines usually catch up to the teams.

but i'm all caught up so i'll be looking at a few good coaching trends that i like to follow on the o/u

gl

 

[ESQAJM]

Pops: My 3 OVER games are all coaching trends. I'm curious to see if you come up with the same ones.

ESQAJM are my initials and the fact that I'm a lawyer.

I will definitely contact you around Feb 15th so we could set up a meet.

ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

sd, kc & denv?

Viks did have 2 home games go under last year, and chgs 1 under vs pack in the rain this year that did go under, but all the rest did go over easy but lines were in the high 30's although most of the totals were in the 50. i wouldnt play that game on the under 4 sure, line hasnt moved much at 43-, but i just dont like playing numbers ov 35's and 42's

i'll take a look at the other too, playing some xbox now to relax

 

[ESQAJM]

Pops: You hit the nail on the head when you said the totals were in the high 30's last year. That's why I'm nervous about betting the totals straight up and am relying heavily on the 6 point teasers and my heaviest bet which will be the 10 point teaser.

Also your database is not as extensive as mine as I go back many years for historical information.

ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

teaser

the teasers is a good idea. i wish i had updated my data bases vs keeping the old sheet. maybe one of these days i'll put them on the computer.

i know that you know that both of kc home games went under last year, as well as their one home game this year, but with dick v and his old team, and MM it sure could go much higher.

gl, and we'll see how this week plays out

 

[ACE-ACE]

HOW TO BET PRESEASON FOOTBALL IN THE 3TH WEEK

Game Three--This is usually a team's main dress rehearsal for opening day. Starters play one-half to three-quarters of the game, backups most of the rest of the way; reserves see action depending mostly on the situation.


ESQAJM ....YOU GOT THE RIGHT WAY OF THINKING ABOUT IT,,,MORE SCORING IN THE 3TH WEEK

BUT, I LIKE ONE UNDER (NYJ GAME VS NYG ) COULD BE A BIG BET<!-- / message -->

 

[ESQAJM]

Ace: I was thinking about betting UNDER also for that game especially with Manning out. The Giant back up QB's are not good enough to move the ball against the Jet defense and the Jet defense will have a field day against the Giant's porous offensive line. This favors the UNDER.

I grabbed -6 when the news first came out that Manning wasn't playing and I think it will go to -7. I like that bet. If you look at last week's stats you would think the Giants lost by 3 TD's instead of winning the game. Carolina outplayed them in all categories, but had 6 TO's (I think it was 6) and lost 27-21. What bothers me is that the Jets may score 30 points alone and make it easy for the game to go OVER.

On the other side of the coin is that since Edwards started coaching the Jets (2001) 35 points is the highest total scored in this game. The average total scored is 30 points.

If you really like the UNDER I'll throw a little money on it but I think the better play is the Jets.

These are my own personal handicapping choices and not my preseason system.

ESQAJM

 

[ACE-ACE]

The Jets Giving 6 1/2 Now And It Could Be A Td Before Game Time...if You Like The Under In This Gameto Be 30 Points In The Game
The Score Would Have To Be 17-10....20-10......23-7 .....i See It More Like 20-10...that Give You A Value Of +4.... I Like My Value To Be More Than +6 For Me To Bet It
What Do You See The Score At?

 

[SportsCapperIsland]

BOL ESQAJM<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_2128109", true); </SCRIPT> :toast:

 

[ESQAJM]

Ace: I can't see the Jets scoring less than 21. Possibly 24, 28, 30 or 31.
Pennington looked very sharp last week against Minn and Fiedler his backup looked very good also. The Giants are not going to stop them. Carolina walked all over the Giant defense last week and the Jets have a better offense than Carolina. But I don't think the Giants will score more than 10.

One other thing you have going for the UNDER is that there is a revenge factor in this game. During preseason scrimmage between these 2 teams, the Jets roughed up the Giants to such a point where several fist fights started. The Jets were blitzing them in a preseason scrimmage which is a no-no. The Gants will be out for revenge.

ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

week #3 unders

nice work guy. in the past years i have not bet on week #3 in PS, as it was the week in which the line maker start hitting the mark.

so far this week, no o/u line and gone down, and most have gone up, with a few up very much.

the one thing that you should keep an eye on is the fact that last week was the only time in the past few years that we had more overs than unders 9-7. and also in prev years, the odds makers would adjust the opening line based on avg scoring patterns. but this year for week #3 they kept it the same as week #2 at 37.6 when the avg score for week #2 was 41, and it appears that the moves will still continue to the up side.

other that already betting the steelers over, i'm not sure if i plan to make anyother week #3 bets. but if they continue to go much higher i'm going to take a good hard look at the unders around game time, as this could be a week where the betters get their heads cut off.

glta

right on, but i still had the stinking steelers on my only over for the night. looks like we are going to see reverse correcting for tonights game, which could present us with some good over opportunities, although a couple of the games are still sky high (chief's and broncos)

 

[ESQAJM]

Last week wasn’t bad, but not great. I ended up +3 for the week. Previous to that I was -5.5* so that leaves me -2.5* for the first 3 weeks of exhibition season.

You never stop learning in sports betting. Pops 69 warned me that the O/U lines were extremely high last week for preseason and that he wouldn’t touch the Overs. I did listen to him in my personal betting as I bet less on the single games and more on the teasers.On the board I rated them all equal (teasers and straight bets)

The 3 games I picked for Over on the board were between 42.5 and 44 (and all of them went higher as it got closer to game time.) I took a quick look back at the past 2 years for week 3 of the postseason and I didn’t see any O/U higher than 40. That should have told me I was forcing my picks. Although my system projected 48 points and higher for all 3 games I should have lightened up on my ratings for the single bets. Lost 2 out of 3 for the single Over bets. I came out even on the teasers because of the added points. LESSON LEARNED: Don’t bet Over 40 in preseason. Use teasers exclusively to bring the numbers down.

RESULTS TO DATE:

1/2*..................... 1-0

1*........................ 1-1

2*........................ 6-5

3*........................ 7-8

4*........................ 1-1

Next week (week 4) everyone says is unpredictable. I have usually won my most money this week as my system really works well the 4th week. Except last year when I ended up -2 for the week because I went too heavy on one game. I’m waiting for the lines to come out with one caveat. I will not bet Over on any line above 40.

ESQAJM

 

[pops69]

esq: i'm updating all the stats now, still need a few true opening lines (missing bills and rams) but just by eye it looks like about a 5-6 point avg down on the open vs last week.

also nothing in the previou data would indicate an over 44 on the lions rams game tonight so i dont know why it's still being bet up, as any of their previous ov were on a line of 37-39

so if you post a week #4 i posts my findings and stats there

gl