~NFL Predictions & ~Analysis Ratings & ~Statistics And Power Ratings~ Bets~ Week # 7

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~San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots~

Jerry Nyles NFL Analyst & Capper Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH]


I can’t envision a Bill Belichick-coached team dropping back-to-back losses at Gillette Stadium, especially when they’re coming off a loss like they had against the Broncos. Newton and company have been the talk of the sports media world all week, and they’ll show up with a strong response on Sunday against the injury-riddled 49ers. I am not going to suddenly forget what San Francisco looked like for multiple weeks just because it had one good game. Garoppolo is probably going to be limited by New England’s defense here, because the coaching staff is so familiar with him.

Patriots defense has shown what it can do in the last two games, allowing just 44 points in total. They impressively stifled the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, and never gave up a touchdown to Drew Lock, despite numerous advantageous field positions for the Broncos. Offensively the 49ers have somewhat limped to an average of 20.33 points in the last three weeks and does not possess the threat to run wild on the Patriots defense. Look for this to be a hard run-game type matchup as both teams look to dominate the clock against defenses which can be prone to being attacked on the ground at times.

The 49ers have only covered once in their last five games against the Patriots.I imagine the public is going to be heavy on San Francisco 49ers, however, I’m not going to get too caught up on last week’s results, especially when it comes to the Patriots as they really didn’t get too much practice prior to their Denver game due to COVID-19. San Francisco has their offensive weapons back, however, going on the road against a New England defense is also a challenge and as I expect the Patriots offense to look better against what is a banged up 49ers defense Belichick hopes to get more from star slot receiver Julian Edelman this week after a knee injury has limited him to a total of seven catches in the past three games.Edelman has practiced this week, which is more than the 49ers' top running back, Raheem Mostert, can say. He likely will be out with a sprained ankle sustained in the Rams game. It may not all be sugar and rainbows in Foxborough, but I do trust Newton behind center of a makeshift offensive front more than I trust Garoppolo.You can rest assured Belichick will have a strong defensive game plan put into place for his former pupil.

*****My Bet Patriots -2 [Buying The Hook ] 3X [ $200 Units ] & Patriots Money Line -$145 [3X] $200 [Units ]



~Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions~

NFL Analyst & Capper Joel Limintti NFL Capper,Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH]

I do not see why this line is close to a pick'em.his game will be a showdown between Stafford and Ryan who have been compared to each other many times throughout their careers. Ryan took the last matchup back in 2017 and will take this matchup again. While they are 1-5, the Falcons offense can be dangerous but it’s the defense that’s been bringing them down. While the Lions won’t have much of an issue when they have the ball, it’s how they’ve been utilizing their offensive weapons that will make it easier for the Falcons to defend.

Detroit struggles against teams that are able to put up points, which is the epitome of what Atlanta does every game. The Falcons have a renewed sense of optimism after making a coaching change and it showed last week. Ryan, Jones and Gurley should have a field day against this Lions’ defense and Atlanta’s defense is going to be able to slow down Stafford and company. Its hard to trust Atlanta playing anywhere but the Georgia Dome nowadays, and even that venue has not guaranteed a victory for the team lately. Both teams will be heading into their bye weeks after this game, and the Falcons are way more desperate in this spot compared to the Lions, who are not a great road team either and have to be content with where they stand right now. Detroit has been one of the worst teams to bet on over the last year, going 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games.

The hot seat news will be back in Detroit after this one. This a high total, but it’s not going to matter, this game is going to go well over the posted total. Both the Lions and Falcons are going to go over 30 points, and if you can buy up this number, this is going to be a perfect chance for that. Their offense has some of the most talented skill players in the league and they produce more than enough to win games. However, their defense is a serious liability, and the Lions have scored in the top-15 of teams this season. If they want to win this game, they will either have to go up a lot on offense or try to contain the Lions’ passing game. Matthew Stafford has had a statistically below average year this season for the Lions. He is in the bottom of the league in passing percentage with 60.76% of completed passes and ranks below average in yards, touchdowns, and QBR.

The return of Kenny Golladay proved helpful as he put up over 100 yards after missing two weeks due to injury. But Marvin Jones Jr. has been extremely quiet, and the Lions have relied on T.J Hockenson and their running backs to do a lot of the work in the passing game. Thankfully for the Lions, the Falcons have one of the worst secondaries and overall defenses in the NFL, so they should be able to capitalize on offense. Power Rating B&Rs Expert Consensus Power Rating Falcons 18.2 To Detroit 19.1= +1 Detroit.. Jeff Sagarin Rating is + 1 1/2 Detroit about the same !!!
In my option a highest-confidence play in this game with both teams loaded on the offensive side of the ball and prone to defensive lapses. There’ll be plenty of big plays in this game and those will help get both teams a few more possessions.


**** My Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Falcons +5 Over 48 Points Total [3X [ $200 Units ]



Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Exclusive Rating By Bobby Lancer DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Rating ~[Cleveland OH]

I expecting to see Le’Veon Bell play in some capacity against the Broncos. The former Steelers and Jets running back is eligible for the first time to suit up for the Chiefs. It likely won’t be a significant role in the first game — but the veteran should be able to see the field this week. I’d expect a package or two with Bell involved — perhaps getting him involved some on third down in pass protection. Edwards-Helaire has primarily taken the early-down work, but Darrel Williams snaps are available. The difference from last week to this could be turnovers, as Denver is unlikely to repeat the success of forcing three takeaways against a Kansas City offense that only has four giveaways on the season. Denver's offense has one of the highest turnover rates in the NFL at two per game, and a weather forecast that calls for sub-20 degree temperatures, up to five inches of snow, and some wind isn't going to help Lock remedy that.

KC Line Moved From _10 To -9 1/2 and now -7 1/2 could possible move -7 by game time?.. Money Line around town is -$340. The Weather Channel is expecting “Snow showers early will become steadier snow in the afternoon. Much colder. ... Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.”The National Weather Service said snow will begin in the early morning hours on Sunday: The Broncos are also giving up sacks on 8.29 percent of dropbacks, with the loss of Risner causing a further concern there.

Supposedly bad weather could limit some of Kansas City's explosiveness on offensive, but Mahomes and company have been just fine in the snow before, including a 30-point showing last year against Denver last December. The Chiefs have also shown an ability to be an ultra-efficient rushing offense this year, and adding Bell to the mix certainly won't make things worse. Denver's defense could play extremely well in this game and still easily lose by 10+ points, as Lock is going to have a lot of trouble getting anything going.

My Bet Kansas City Money Line At a great price at -$340 X 6[ $200 Units][off of a press win last sunday

My Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Kansas City - 1/2 & Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions Over 48 Points Total [3X [ $200 Units ]


PS:::: You can't win? if you don't press once in while [ Picking your spot on a press is very important complete analysis is must !!! . I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction,with the same assumption of each about its probability to win. Remember,my method is not risking adverser [risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs], and considerable risk is assumed when you choose my method of predictions & Bet. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise. There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure.



**** Handicapping information taken from Internet Sports Media. Bleacher Report, Inc.,USA Today Sports Media Group, Pro Football Weekly's & NFL Weather.com, Football Stats and History, and other sources connected with NFL Sports. DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive Ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators with Intelligent analysis by many different handicappers connected with DVAXN Gr oup 25 of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~
 

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Great stuff Harry. Like KC and NE, both look solid.

BOL, my friend!

Bellichek is something like 12-3 ats, against qb's that at one point were on his team. KC is starting to look like one of those teams that hammers it some weeks and coasts others. But too much talent and with 1 loss already, I'll bet Andy has them ready. Goal being the one bye.
 

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Ok Harry, I am all in with you this week. First time following along.

Thanks for sharing
 
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Denver's offense has one of the highest turnover rates in the NFL at two per game

Great stuff Harry. Like KC and NE, both look solid.

BOL, my friend!

Bellichek is something like 12-3 ats, against qb's that at one point were on his team. KC is starting to look like one of those teams that hammers it some weeks and coasts others. But too much talent and with 1 loss already, I'll bet Andy has them ready. Goal being the one bye.
Denver's offense has one of the highest turnover rates in the NFL at two per game, and a weather forecast that calls for sub-20 degree temperatures, up to five inches of snow, and some wind isn't going to help Lock remedy that. If they plan to run the ball like they did last week then it will be strength vs. strength as the Broncos are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry against the run. uscmd the Broncos defense, without Von Miller, also ranks 6th in overall defensive DVOA.Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense ranks on the bottom half in stopping the run at 4.7 yards per carry. uscmd If Denver can put together a run-heavy attack between Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay, they could hang with the Chiefs in this type of snow game.
 

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Mr. HTH, as you always say: "Let's Just Win" !! Looks like another sold card for you. See you at the window.
 

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Denver had high hopes this season and they were hurt because of QB Lock going down. Make no mistake about it, he is back and Denver really shut down the Pats to only 14 first downs at NE LW.
In addition, Belechik used Edelman 2 times as QB with trick plays and the Pats still couldn't win.
KC is vastly talented, but often plays at the level of its competition and today is one of those days when they may get beat SU again. The fact that the line dropped from 9.5 to 7 is unusual because it usually holds up or increases. A drop down is an indicator that the Chiefs may find out they aren't all that great today, even with Bell in the backfield.. FWIW.

Like Dog +7... GL on the teaser..
 
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**** Handicapping information taken from DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH]

The Kansas City Chiefs have already won three times on the road in posting a 5-1 record this season. They are on the road again in Denver to take on the Broncos. Going back to last season the Chiefs have won five straight road games. The offense is led by Patrick Mahomes with 1,699 passing yards, to go with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Mahomes has thrown two or more touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games. His two main targets, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 854 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As a team, the Chiefs rush for 140.3 yards a game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing for 505 yards and one touchdown. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 21.2 points a game.
The Seahawks are undefeated, and they come into Arizona as a significant favorite. This is a familiar spot for these NFC West rivals, and more often than not it hasn't worked out well for the Seahawks. Arizona has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the those games. The Seahawks 5-0 record doesn't seem as impressive when you realize that the only team they have beat that doesn't have a losing record is the Miami Dolphins. Arizona's defense was a problem for the Cowboys on Monday night, and they should make life tough on Wilson and the Seattle offense here at home. The Seahawks still rank dead last in total defense allowing over 470 yards per game. With the league's worst defense and not a single win against a team with a winning record, Seattle has no business being a favorite on the road here.
The Chargers and Jaguars both come in with just one win on the season, but these are two completely different teams. The Chargers have been a hard luck team as their four losses have come by an average of 4.5 ppg including two games that went into overtime and those losses came by teams that are a combined 15-8, all of which are .500 or better. Los Angeles has the No. 9 ranked offense in the league, and it squares off against a Jaguars defense that is ranked No. 29 overall and the way Chargers quarterback Justin Hebert has been playing, he has a chance for another monster game. The Jaguars have lost five straight games and three of the last four have come by 18, 16 and 18 points. Jacksonville cannot run the ball so the Chargers will make Gardner Minshew beat them and since that has not happened yet, it will not happen here either. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games.
The Panthers played a sloppy game last week, losing at home to Chicago. Then again, the Bears defense makes many of their opponents look sloppy, holding opposing QB’s to a 73.5 QB rating. The Saints, on the other hand, have allowed opposing QB’s to notch a 108.2 QB rating against them so far; a big part of the reason why they haven’t covered a single pointspread since their Week 1 win over Tampa Bay – when your defense is giving up 30 points per game, laying more than a touchdown becomes problematic!
It’s surely worth noting that the dog is 10-2 ATS in the last dozen meetings between these two teams, and Carolina is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 tries at the Superdome including a spread covering three point loss on this field last year. And with Saints top WR Michael Thomas forced to miss practice again on Thursday with a ‘just suffered’ hamstring injury, the pointspread here looks a good notch or two inflated for me !!!!!!

**** Handicapping information taken from DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Rating ~[Cleveland OH]cheersgif
 
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over 48 not looking good. why they don’t get rid if old ryan guy. don’t understand
 

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