Nfl playoffs

[Chico1856]

Some weird ass line movement in this game, as we are looking at a five point swing here. Colts now 2.5 point pups at home against a team they beat a few weeks back on the road 23-7 (#5 scoring defense allowing 19.1ppg). Indianapolis has played a tougher schedule this year, going 4 and 2 against playoff teams, including wins AT San Fran 27-7 (#3 scoring defense allowing 17ppg), home against Seattle 34-28 (#1 scoring defense allowing 14.4 ppg) and at home against Denver 39-33 (22nd scoring defense 24.9ppg) Colt lost at San Diego 19-9 (#11 scoring D 21.8) and at Cincinnati 42-28 (Tied for #5 19.1ppg). Indianapolis was able to average over 26.6 points per game in those H2H battles, against some solid defenses, showing they are a team that can rise to the moment.
Kansas City went 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs, beating the Eagles in week 3, and since their bye week, over the last 7 weeks of the season went just 2-5 SU, allowing at least 27 points in five of those (giving up 10 to Washington in a blowout, and 23 to Indy in the loss at home a weeks ago).
Indy went 5-7 over the last 7 weeks, with their only losses to playoff teams, San Diego, and Cincinnati.

Looking for Colts to ride Luck into the next round of the playoffs, as he seems more comfortable playing without Reggie Wayne of late, with 8 TD's/1 INT over the last 4 weeks, and they are, IMO a more battle tested team.

COLTS ML +115

 

[Chico1856]

Lotta talk regarding the woes of the Saints on the road, and Brees not having a win on the road in the playoffs, but I will still take my chances on a Saints squad that has playoff experience at 2 of the most important positions, quarterback and Head Coach, against a team that has neither.
Philly defense has struggled this year, and survived largely by the takeaway, but may find that a bit more difficult as they play a team that was tied 4th in giving up the ball.
Saints should be able to keep the chains moving on offense against a an Eagles team that struggles to get off the field (24th in 3rd down %) and do enough up front to put pressure on Foles (Saints 4th in sacks) and force some mistakes.

Looking for the Saints to play loose tonight, while the Eagles play tight with the pressure of the situation.

Saints ML +135

 

[loomis41973]

gl today

 

[Chico1856]

San Diego is a tougher out here than one may think, going 5-2 against playoff teams this year, and they are getting a chance here to avenge one of those losses against the Bengals, who beat them in San Diego 17-10 in week 13.

The Bengals have dominated at home, going 8-0 SU and ATS, scoring 40+ in 4 of their last five home games, and should be able to move the ball and score against a Chargers defense that ranks poorly (27th in yards per rush, 20th in 3rd down %, 28th in Defensive Passer Rating).

One area where the Bengals have a nice edge headed into this game is in the Red Zone. Offensively Cincinnati ranks 2nd in the NFL in converting Red Zone chances into TDs 73.91% and will be going against a Chargers Defense that ranks 27th, allowing 62.22%(San Diego on offense ranks 25th at 50.85%, Bengals Defense 9th @ 50%).

A lot is being made of the Bengals futility in the postseason, and rightfully so, but today I am looking for Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton to get the monkey off their back, and move to the next round. A lot of points here to lay, however since 1980 the SU winner is 106-11-3 ATS

Will lay the points here with

Cincinnati -6.5

 

[pizza]

nice call

 

[Chico1856]

All the talk is about the cold here, and it should be one for the ages, with temps reaching well below freezing.

Biggest issue I could not overcome when looking at Green Bay, is who have they beaten?

49ers played a much tougher schedule, are playing solid football at the right time of the year, and have shown they can win on the road.

The NFL is a passing league, but this game looks like a throwback event, so even thou SF is banged up in the secondary, and has given up a lot of yards thru the air over the last few weeks to both Atlanta and Arizona, the cold weather today may help insulate them in that regard, as the ball will be much harder to catch in the icy conditions, and that same cold weather may limit what Eddie Lacy can do for Green Bay, as it has played a role in his asthma once already this year.

I feel like the team that can be more physical today, especially running/stopping the run will advance, and San Fran has a team that looks like they can play well in the conditions, with a tough D and solid run offense, and a mobile quarterback who is not unfamiliar with the cold, being from Wisconsin himself.

Will take my chances on

San Fransisco -3

 

[Chico1856]

NFL Playoffs 2-1-1 (+1.4)


Seems a lot of folks leaning on the Saints here, which makes me uneasy, I much prefer to back an unloved dog than one that garners more than 50% of public affection, but I am drinking the Sean Peyton Kool-Aid, and I believe the Saints will be able to rise up today for a chance to redeem themselves in Seattle, and avenge their Week 13 Whooping the Seahawks gave them, and their playoff loss here 2 years ago. In that game the Saints were forced into six 3 and outs, out of 10 drives.

I am looking for the New Orleans offense to make more plays against Seattle than they did in week 13, In that game the Saints were forced into six 3 and outs, out of 10 drives, not a typical day for the #3 ranked team in the league in 3rd down %. No doubt Seattle Defense is outstanding, but give a good offensive mind (with a top tier QB) a second chance in the same season, and I like my chances.

Saints defense pretty good themselves this year, ranking 3rd in total team yards allowed, tied for 4th in sacks per game (5th in Negative pass plays), and 9th in 3rd down %. One area where I need the Saints to excel today is the fat guys up front, Seattle OL is suspect, ranking 28th in allowing negative passing plays.

FWIW, The #1 seed in NFC is 1-6 ATS in this round, and have lost SU 4 of the last 6 times. I am betting the Saints to have more success the second time around, and stay within the number.

1* New Orleans +10
0.5* NO ML +360

 

[Chico1856]

Taking the Colts in the nite cap, in a game where both offenses should be able to have success, will back the team with the tougher schedule in a game that could go down to who has the ball last.


INDY +7.5

 

[Chico1856]

I just can not get behind Cam Newton in his first ever playoff start, against such an experienced, battle tested defense. These teams are very similar to each other, but 49ers have been tested all year playing in the leagues toughest division, and have the postseason pedigree needed to go into Carolina and walk off the field with the win.

San Francisco -1

 

[Chico1856]

All week I have been of the mindset of backing the Superchargers in the late game, in their 7 losses they have lost by an average of just 5.8 points per game. Its features 2 division opponents who know each other quite well, and have split their H2H this year, with each road team taking the SU win.

Now with kickoff quickly approaching, I have jumped the fence. I think Peyton jumps on this San Diego defense early, and forces the Chargers out of their ball control game plan, and gives Roger Goddell and the NFL exactly the match-up they want for the AFC Championship. Like last night game, I don't think Peyton leaves the backdoor open.

Denver Broncos -8

 

[Chico1856]

NFL Playoffs 4-4-1 (+0.7)


Denver -4.5
Seattle -3.5

 

[Chico1856]

NFL Playoffs 6-4-1 (+2.7)


Denver 1st Half -0.5
Denver -2 Game

 

[Chico1856]

0-2 to close out the year