NFL Picks 2015

[jgm4661]

Did ok in 2014. Best Bets 19-8, overall 49-29

Home in caps. Have a spreadsheet that provides comparisons & predictions of who has an edge in run/pass, sacks etc comparing a team’s units vs. the opposition's in each game. Comparisons listed are for ex Team A run O vs. Team B run D.

No best bets until I see how these teams actually are. CHI +7 looks to be the best deal but they have a new coach and system. Only a few w any real value due to some injury concerns and uncertainty. Here are my thoughts for Week 1. Away til Sunday late so wont be able to respond to posts.

CHI + 7
gb missing Jordy Nelson and his 14 TDs. gb ordinary on the road only scoring 21 pts/g avg My line estimate is gb -1 so lots of value here. Both teams Os better than opposition Ds so CHI should be able to hang around. John Fox will bolster the D and rein in Cutler’s mistakes

SF +2.5
Key here is min injuries on the OL down starting RT and now C. min only avgd 19 ppg on the road last year. Another bizarre line. My estimate is SF -2.5 or the original posted line. SF edge in pass and rush d. Edge in QB play as well w Kapernik at home vs. 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr starter Bridgewater on the road.

I like BUF +2.5 too but just want to wait and see how Tyrod Taylor does first.

 

[jgm4661]

YTD 1-1

CHI is frustrating and had ample opportunities to cover w 4 tries from inside the GB 5 and no pts and then Cutler's untimely int. Still only missed by 1 pt. despite out gaining GB in yds. CHI will be better next game

BUF lean was confirmed for their home games at least.

 

[jgm4661]

Week 2

Home in caps. Comparisons listed are a team’s units vs. the opposition's in each game for ex Team A run O is vs. Team B run D.

Best Bets

CIN -3.5
CIN edge everywhere. Big edge in rush O. Geno Atkins is back to form and D should be one of the league’s best again. sd missing TE Gates (12 TDs in 2014)

Rest

sf +6
PIT missing scoring of suspended RB LeVeon Bell (11TDs) and WR Martavis Bryant (8 TDs) and their D is a work in progress especially the secondary. sf edge in rush and pass O so should be able to hang around

NYG -2
atl D is still in rebuild mode as they still have one of the worst secondaries in the league. Both O’s better than the Ds but NYG edge in rush O.

sea +3.5
sea better team. big edge in rush O Both Ds better than Os so will be low scoring. GB OT Bryan Bulaga out will hurt.

 

[jgm4661]

Scratch sf -6 Strong lean but coaching is still new and PIT tough at home even missing key players so will just watch for now.

 

[jgm4661]

Scratch sea. Lean but will just watch tonite.

 

[jgm4661]

Week 2 Best 1-0, All 1-1
YTD Best 1-0, All 2-2

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend!!!

 

[jgm4661]

Week 3

Home in caps. Comparisons listed are a team’s units vs. the opposition's in each game for ex Team A run O is vs. Team B run D.

Best Bets
DET +3

STL+1
If they can beat sea at home they can beat pit. Edge in rush and pass O and pass rush w Robert Quinn and Chris Long. pit’s secondary is avg at best and they are also avg on the road. Missing WR Martavis Bryant again

ind -3
Big edge in pass o, pass rush D. TEN down some key starters at CB, DT and now OG.

DET +3
det edge in pass O, rush D and teams are about = so should be a pick em DET tough at home w avg margin of victory ~ 9 pts last year

 

[jgm4661]

Adding

MIN -1.5
Edge in pass and rush D and big edge in rush O against one of the worst run Ds in the league. SD doesn’t travel very well losing by ~ 6 pts on the road last yr. Still missing TE Gates and his 5 pts/game and CB Brandon Flowers.

 

[jgm4661]

Scratch MIN afterall. SD more run focused this yr so maybe able to hang around despite missing Gates

 

[jgm4661]

Scratch DET. Not sure if Stafford is 100%.

 

[jgm4661]

0-2. STL couldn't put up > 9 pts at home against PIT w out Rothlisberger. Luck played awful even vs TEN

YTD Best 1-0
All 2-4

 

[jgm4661]

Week 4

Home in caps. Comparisons listed are a team’s units vs. the opposition's in each game for ex Team A run O is vs. Team B run D.

Best
SF + 7.5


SF +7.5
gb averaging only 21 pts/game on the road & missing some WRs this year. Both teams will be able to move the ball so SF can hang around

 

[jgm4661]

SF played awful. No pts on a few drives in the red zone and only needed 1 td to cover. Never again

Best 1-1 All 2-5

 

[jgm4661]

Week 7

DET +1
Edge everywhere. Get Ngata back. Last week their O woke up from their slump. DET has had a much harder schedule and are undervalued. min only scoring 19 ppg on the road. Again = teams so home side should be favored by hfa.

 

[jgm4661]

0-1, 2-6 YTD DET played great for 1Q then looked lost and played ok in Q4 but not enough. Too many weapons to score such few pts. after last week

 

[jgm4661]

bal +10

 

[jgm4661]

Ytd 3-6

 

[jgm4661]

Week 8

Home team in caps. Edge is team unit vs corresponding opposite unit of opponent ie Team rush O vs Opponent rush D.


ATL -7
Big edge in pass O vs TB allowing an opr of 110. and almost 30 ppg both near the league bottom. TB losing by 7 pts on avg while ATL winning at home by 11 so expect ATL by double digits. TB missing WR Vincent Jackson and his 7 TDs last year and starting TE Austin Seferian - Jenkins.


NO -3
nyg only getting 1.3 sacks .game near the bottom of the league. NO edge in pass and run O and has had much harder sch. Beat ATL and DAL at home by 3+. nyg missing starting CB Prince Amukamura & 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pass D already. Lost by 20 to ATL last time out

DEN +2.5
This is a mistake or gb is vastly overrated. gb avg on the road at 21 ppg in 2014. DEN edge in pass and run O vs a run D giving up 4.7 ypr. Also get Demarcus Ware back DEN covered 4 of 6 this year.

 

[jgm4661]

1-1 YTD 4-7 Matty Ice isn't 4 TO's never again. TB scored 17 pts off the turnovers.