Side opinions went 3-1 last week but unfortunately I was pretty conservative and only played one total as a best bet, which lost, and left the four side opinions on the table. The seasonal record is now 58-46 56% +17.90%. Last year at this time, I was coming off an 0-4 wildcard weekend, which dropped my record to 59-47 (eerily similar to this year) but bounced back to finish the rest of the playoffs 6-2 so hopefully there is more of that in the cards these next three weeks.
I do have another 4% play this weekend. This is only the second 4% play of the year. The first game was the over in the Minn/SD game, winning rather easily 42-28, going over the total of 44.5 That game was nearly over at halftime. I don't expect this game to be that easy but the situation, teams involved and the line allow us to have a decent chance at this total, even if the game doesn't go our way. Play it accordingly, nothing more and nothing less. It's just one game that stands a good chance of winning but is not a lock. There are no such things.
All side opinions went 3-1 last week and are now 137-112-9 55% over the first eighteen weeks of the season.
Last week I talked about how important it was to only look at the home teams because they had won at least three out of the four games SU for 10 consecutive years in a row. They did it again last week and that makes 11 straight years of winning at least three of four or better. I also talked about the three teams laying three or less points (or dogs) and if we knew they stood a good chance of winning straight up, they would probably also cover the spread. Those three went 2-1 SU and ATS. Keep this in mind for next year.
On to the divisional playoff round or round two if you will. Home teams continue to dominate in this round as well, but against the spread, it's important to know where to look to try and find winners. Over the last 20 years, there have only been three out of the twenty years where the home teams have failed to win more than two of the games straight up. In 17 of those 20 seasons, the home team has won three or more of the home games straight up and only one time in the last thirteen years (1995), which is important because the playoff format changed in 1990 and all home teams were coming off a bye week and facing teams not off a bye week. In the three years where they have failed, they have gone 2-2 SU. So, over the last 20 years, home teams have never failed to win at least half of these games, or two games.
Over those twenty seasons, home teams have been under .500 ATS only four times. Seven times they have gone 2-2 ATS and nine times they have been over .500 ATS. So, 45% of the time you would have won money betting all home teams, 35% of the time you would have gone .500 (lost juice) and 20% of the time you would have lost money. That's enough to probably keep you off the visitor but let's break it down a little more.
Over the last twenty seasons, home teams are now 46-31-3 ats 59.7%. If our home team has more wins than their opponent, they are 42-27-2 60.9% (4-4-1 if not). That would apply to all four teams this year. Ironically enough, if our home team has allowed 20 or less points over their last two games combined, that is a negative. Home teams who have allowed more than 20 points over their last two games are 35-13-1 72.9% (7-14-1 if not (11-18-2 from the 46-31-3)). That would rule out NE this week and leave KC, St. Louis and Philadelphia. By the way, teams allowing 20 or less points over the last two games went 0-3 last week - playing against Green Bay, Dallas and Baltimore. One last caveat to all of this is if the road team is over .500 ATS, then the home team is 25-4-1 86.2% (10-9-1 if not (21-27-2 from the 46-31-3)). That rules out the Rams and leaves us with just Kansas City and Philadelphia for this week. Add in the fact that those 25-4-1 teams are now 20-0-1 since 1987.
To sum it up, home teams are still the way to go in this round. That can change for the next round but this round should still represent the home teams in your arsenal. And, then being able to do a little more research shows us which home teams perform the best. Good luck this weekend.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
ST LOUIS -7.5 Carolina 44.5
With an understanding the great equalizer here is the dome the Rams play in, this Rams team is vastly overrated. I truly believe this is the last game they will win this year, if they win this game. I don't see anyway they can go to Philadelphia and win and a situation that has won 72% of every Conference Championship game over the last 33 years (46-18-2) will play against the Rams next weekend if they host GB. Again, the home field has greatly helped the Rams this year and that can't be overlooked but either can the stats from this Rams team. I've heard all week about how good the Rams are, especially at home, and they are 4-0 SU in the playoffs at home since 1999 (just 2-2 ats). But, let's take a look at some of the numbers from past Rams teams and this year's version. In 1999, the Rams were averaging 33 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game (+9 points) and they were allowing 15 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game (+4 points). In 2001, they were averaging 31 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game (+9 points) and allowing 17 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game (+3 points). This year they are still solid, averaging 28 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game (+6 points) and allowing 20 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game (+1 point). But, the big difference comes in yards per play and this 2003 version of the Rams isn't even close to those teams. In 1999, the Rams averaged 6.4 yards per play against teams allowing 5.2 yards per play (+1.2 yppl) and allowed just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (+0.3 yppl). In 2001, they averaged 6.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl (+0.3 yppl) and allowed 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (+0.3 yppl). This year, their offense is average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl (0.0 yppl) and the defense is below average, allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (-0.2 yppl). It's also interesting to note the Rams are allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per rush this year to teams averaging just 4.3 ypr (-0.5 ypr), while in 1999, they allowed just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr (+0.5 ypr) and in 2001 they allowed just 3.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr (+0.2 ypr). This is not the same Rams team. In 1999, I played the Rams very large over the Vikings in this same game and leaned towards them over TB, only to see them not cover. In 2001, I played the Rams over my Packers and played Philadelphia in the Conference Championship game, both winners. Since week nine of this year I am 7-2 betting on or against or leaning on or against the Rams. So, this certainly isn't a bias towards the Rams and I would like to think I have a pretty good handle on this team.
Some will point out that since Marshall Faulk has come back the numbers are better but that's not true either. Their rushing numbers have improved from averaging 3.3 ypr to 3.8 ypr with Faulk. But, their yards per play have dropped from averaging 5.9 yppl without Faulk to just 4.8 yppl with Faulk. Part of that is probably the competition and part of that might be because they are running the ball more with Faulk and giving up on the bigger pass plays.
I'm not crazy enough to suggest a best bet on Carolina here, knowing the strength of the home teams in this round but I'm also not crazy enough to place a bet on a team laying this many points, when they average just 3.6 ypr and allow 4.8 ypr. Those are not numbers of a winning team, come playoff time.
I am leaning to Carolina because the Rams are just an average team laying a lot of points, Carolina is actually the better team in this game and Carolina is the type of team that gives the Rams trouble. Carolina averages 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, while the Rams are allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. So, Carolina's offense is better than the Rams defense, from a yards per play angle. On offense, the Rams are just average, gaining 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl and Carolina is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. Again, Carolina's defense is better than the Rams offense.
My question for Rams bettors would be who has St. Louis beaten at home this year that is comparable to this Carolina team? They struggled to beat SF by three, defeated Arizona and Atlanta, which don't count. They did beat GB but I think GB is a much better team now than then. They got killed by Baltimore but managed to win that game by forcing seven turnovers. The Rams gained only 121 total yards in that game at 2.4 yppl. They sacked Baltimore seven times. I doubt they will do that here against a Carolina team that has only been sacked 26 times all year. Baltimore has been sacked 41 times this year. They beat bad defensive teams Minnesota and Cincinnati and won by five over a good Seattle team, who is actually slightly better than average on defense. Meanwhile, for Carolina they have been a road dog four times and gone 3-1 ats, while losing their only game ats by four points and are 4-1 ats overall as a dog. Most important for Carolina is they went to Indianapolis to play a similar but much better Colts team as 4.5 point dogs and won that game 23-20 in OT. The Colts defense is very similar to the Rams. They both have excellent outside rushers in Little and Freeney, both allow 0.5 ypr more than their opponents average (4.5-4.0 and 4.8-4.3). Both play average pass defense. But, on offense, there is no comparison. Indy's offense is head and shoulders above the Rams offense. It's not even close.
Again, the Rams have had plenty of trouble against teams who can rush the passer. I went back and looked at the teams the Rams have played at home since 1999 that can put pressure on the quarterback. This year Carolina averages 2.4 sacks per game against teams allowing 2.0 sacks per game. So, Carolina is above average in sacking the quarterback. I went back and looked at all teams that were above average sacking the quarterback, above average in allowing yards per play and above average in allowing points per game. The Rams have played 11 teams at home since 1999 that fit that criteria and they are 8-3 SU but just 3-7-1 ats and have only won three of those 11 games by more than seven points. And one win was this year against Baltimore, which I consider to be a fraud win.
My final numbers show the Rams should be favored by seven points (using a power rating number) and by seven points using a home/away scoring formula. Those numbers were achieved by allowing the Rams extra points for home field advantage in the playoffs.
The only point I'm trying to get across here is the public tends to get all caught up in the home field advantage of these teams but this is not a good match-up for the Rams in this game. If Carolina can keep the turnover margin to -1 or better, I think they cover this game. People tend to think Carolina is just a running team and if the Rams take away the run, Carolina won't be able to move the ball. That's simply not true. This team only ran the ball 52% of the time so they certainly don't have a problem throwing the ball and they averaged 6.3 yps against teams allowing just 6.1 yps this season. That's just as good as the Rams, who averaged 6.2 yps against 6.0 yps this season. Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad are excellent receivers who will get open down field. On the road this year, Carolina has faced similar pass defenses in Indy and New Orleans and a better pass defense in Dallas. They averaged 6.6 yps, 5.2 yps and 6.5 yps against those three teams. Against similar poor rush defenses, like Indy, NO and Houston, they averaged 4.6 ypr, 5.7 ypr and 5.0 ypr. And, they even averaged 4.3 ypr at Tampa Bay. There is no reason to think Carolina can't move the ball against this Rams defense. I think the general perception is Carolina is only a running team and the Rams offense is much better than it really is. If I'm right that Carolina can throw the ball and the Rams offense is just average, Carolina will cover, if not win this game SU. If I'm wrong, it won't be close. That's why they play the games. The Rams do qualify in a situation that plays on home teams when the total is 42 or higher. That situation is 41-12-2 after going 1-1 last week with Indy and Green Bay, but again, I simply don't like this match-up.
One last note to this game. The Rams average 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a difference of zero. Their defense allows 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a difference of -0.2 yppl. Add the two together (0.00 + -0.02) and you get -0.2 yppl. Since 1983, in this round, there have been 29 teams that have played with a negative balance, from a yards per play perspective. Two of those teams played against each other. Of those 29 teams, only eight won their game straight up. And 12 of those teams were home teams and 11 were home favorites. Those home favorites went 2-8-1 ats, winning only three of those 12 games by more than seven points. ST LOUIS 24 CAROLINA 23
NEW ENGLAND -6 Tennessee 35
It looks like it's going to be awful cold in Foxboro come Saturday night, with temperatures possibly at zero. That's going to make it tough to move the ball in those temperatures. As for this game NE qualifies in a 45-17-1 situation that is based on their great ATS record this season but that situation is only 8-7-1 if the play on team allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. For whatever reason, coming off of two great defensive efforts, is a negative in the playoffs, especially in the first two rounds. That pointspread situation is 26-12-1 in the first two rounds but just 3-7-1 if our play on team has allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. Maybe it's because these teams get overvalued although the line rarely matters as teams in this round have covered the spread over 82% of the time if they win SU and over 75% of the time when winning SU as a favorite. Maybe these teams take things for granted because they think they are better than what they really are after a couple of good defensive efforts. Maybe they beat some inferior teams and are now playing much better teams or maybe their opponent gets even more focused realizing they are in for a dog fight. Whatever the reason, these teams don't perform well and teams allowing 20 or less in their last two games went 0-3 last weekend. As for this game, I just don't see how Tennessee is going to be able to move the ball consistently against this Patriots defense. I had NE in their first meeting this year that NE won 38-30. To be honest, they were a bit lucky to win that game but they have continued to get better each week. NE has won every home game this year by six or more points so this number could be a key number. The NE offense isn't anything special, gaining just 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl but their offense is better than Tennessee's defense, which is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And the NE defense is better than the Tennessee offense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl against the Tennessee offense averaging 5.5 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl. My final numbers suggest NE by six and five points so the line is pretty close to the numbers. I just think NE is the better team, is healthier and better rested for this game. If it weren't for the 20 or less points situation going against NE in this game, I would be on them in a best bet. NEW ENGLAND 22 TENNESSEE 13
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 Green Bay 41.5
If there is one game this week where the situations clearly lie with one team, it is this game. And they clearly lie with Philadelphia in this game. With that said, and admitting I bleed Green & Gold, I believe this game is a bad match-up for Philadelphia. Philadelphia qualifies in the 25-4-1 situation listed above, which is now 20-0-1 since 1987. If this total is at 42 or higher, they would also qualify in a situation that is 41-12-1, which is based on higher totals favoring the home team in the playoffs. It will be up to you, the reader, to determine if my lean towards GB is either the Green & Gold goggles I wear or actually a fair analysis of this game. Philly also qualifies in an against the spread situation, which is 45-17-1. That situation is based on Philly's excellent spread record this year and those teams seem to perform very well in the playoffs.
But, Philly, like St. Louis, isn't the better team in this game. Green Bay continues to play outstanding football, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl while the Philadelphia defense is allowing 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl, which indicates the Green Bay offense is better than the Philadelphia defense. Philly's offense is averaging 5.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and goes against a Green Bay defense, which is allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, which makes the Philly offense better than the Philly defense. Brian Westbrook won't play in this game, which could hurt their offensive production.
I mentioned last week that the Packers defense has really stepped it up against the run ever since they signed Grady Jackson and the fact the Packers had played much better defense as of late but against some poor offensive teams. Last week, Seattle moved the ball well against the Green Bay defense, but a closer look shows they actually did a very good job. They allowed Seattle to gain 340 yards (Seattle averages 352 yards per game), 5.0 yppl (Seattle averages 5.5 yppl), only 2.3 ypr (Seattle averages 4.4 ypr) and 6.2 yps (Seattle averages 6.4 yps). On offense, the Packers had their rushing game shutdown last week, gaining just 78 yards at 2.4 ypr but they showed they can throw the ball, passing for 319 yards at 8.4 yps. The Green Bay offense is very solid right now and they should see some success against a Philadelphia rush defense that is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. GB ran for 241 yards at 6.5 ypr. Philly's rush defense had allowed 100 yards or more rushing in 11 straight games prior to their shutout of a Washington team that appeared to have quit. Even if Philadelphia looks to stop the run like most teams have as of late, GB will be able to throw the ball with their better than average passing game.
I use a formula that seems to rate teams pretty accurately. GB has averaged 28 points per game this year against teams allowing just 23 points per game for a total of +5 points better and their defense allows just 19 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game for a total of +3 points better. If you add those two numbers together, GB adds up to +9 (6 + 3). For Philadelphia, they have averaged 23 points per game against teams allowing 20 points per game for a total of +3 and their defense has allowed 18 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game for a total of +1. That adds up to +4 points better than average. From this we can see GB is the better team with a +9 versus a +4 for Philadelphia. You may or may not agree with this methodology but I can tell you that looking back over the last 20 seasons, there have only been five times when a team has had a rating of eight or higher and been an underdog against a team with a lower rating. All five of those teams were on the road and they went 4-1 ats. The most recent example of this was in 2001 when Philly went to Chicago as a three point dog and won the game 33-19. Green Bay is simply the better team in this game and the match-up favors them as well. My ratings favor Philly by only 3.5 points and my scoring formula only favors Philly by one point. This line, for whatever reason, is greatly exaggerated. Even though the situations clearly line up with Philly in this game, I'm not biting. Perhaps it's because I bleed Green & Gold but I went against the Packers when they played in St. Louis in 2001 in this round but that was a much different situation.
The play I like the best in this game is the over. I really think this game is a slam dunk to go over the total. The last time the Packers averaged this many points per game was in 1996 when they won the SB. I'm not anointing them the SB winner but back in 1996 I knew their offense was good for 30 points per game and that is the same thing this year. They have now scored 31 or more points in five straight games. This game is on the road and they may not get their 30+ points, but they will get their 24-27 points in this game. Barring a barrage of turnovers, that is a given. Philadelphia, somehow, someway, manages to get their points and they have scored at least 24 points in every home game this year since their third home game, when they began to turn around their season. Against good defenses like Dallas and Miami (road game), they managed to score 36 and 34 points so they can certainly get their points against better than average defenses. In eight games against better than average offenses, GB has allowed an average of 24 points this year and 27 points per game against the three better than average offenses they played on the road. Philly played SF two games ago at home and lost that game 28-31. The SF defense is average, which is probably somewhat close to the Packers when you consider how they play against the better offenses in the league. The SF offense is balanced and similar to GB but not as good as GB. In that game, SF was without Terrell Owens for most of the game but they still allowed SF to gain 414 yards at 5.6 yppl, including 206 yards rushing. It should be pointed out in that game that two of the three Philadelphia touchdowns came on drives of 40 yards or shorter while all three of SF touchdowns came on drives of 57 yards or more. All three of these teams, SF, GB and Philly, run the same offense and are very familiar with each other. The first game between GB and Philly only saw 31 points being scored but the weather was very poor and GB ran the ball nearly 60% of that game, partly because of the weather and because of Favre's thumb. Brett Favre is the kind of quarterback that won't quit and his team is good for at least one late score if they are getting beat badly. If GB is winning, Philadelphia, at home, is good for some late points as well. So, I don't see how these teams won't be able to score late in the game if we need a score to help push this game over the total, unless the game is very close, but I can't see either team not getting to 20 points in this game. The average points scored in a NFL game are 42 points so we are asking two better than average offenses to go against two average defenses and score a normal amount of points in a NFL game. Lastly, GB has now played seven games on the road in the playoffs during the Favre era, where they have been installed as underdogs. All seven of those games have seen at least 44 total points scored and the Packers have allowed at least 24 or more points in six of those seven, including at least 17 points in every game. Final numbers, using three different formula's predict about 47, 53 and 49 points being scored in this game. PHILADELPHIA 30 GREEN BAY 27
KANSAS CITY -3 Indianapolis 50.5
Indy sure looked like a different team last week against Denver, winning easily 41-10. But, I think it will get much more difficult for them this week in Kansas City. Checking the write-up above for this round, you can see KC qualifies in the 25-4-1 situation, which is now 20-0-1 since 1987. These offenses are very similar, but the KC offense is a little better than the Indy offense. KC averaged 5.9 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl this year, while the Indy offense averaged 5.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl. The KC offense was a little better balanced as well, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr (which is just average) and 7.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Indy averaged just 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr (which is below average) and 7.1 yps against 5.9 yps (which is solid but slightly behind KC). On defense, both teams allowed 21 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game but the KC defense allowed a lot more yards per game than Indy. KC allowed 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl, while Indy allowed just 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The Chiefs are allowing just 4.5 ypr, 5.1 yps and 4.9 yps at home. They haven't played an offense the likes of Indy at home but they do play much better defense at home. Playing in a dome like Indy does will also hurt their chances this weekend. Dome teams, when playing on the road outdoors are just 11-26-1 ats since 1970 when getting 10 or less points (or favored). This is also Kansas City's first playoff game since 1997. Teams playing their first playoff home game in at least five years (when not facing a team who is in their first playoff game in at least three years) are now 23-5-0. And teams playing their first playoff game in at least three years (home/away) are now 29-7 if their opponent isn't in the same situation. Seattle covered with that last week. My final numbers favor KC by 8.5 points and by six points. They also suggest about 48 points being scored. When the total is set at 42 or higher, the home teams tend to cover, going 41-12-1 when laying less than 10 points, after winning with Indy last week and losing with GB. Value and the situations clearly lie with KC in this game. KANSAS CITY 34 INDIANAPOLIS 21
BEST BETS
YTD 58-46-5 +17.90%
4% GREEN BAY/PHILADELPHIA OVER 41.5
3% KANSAS CITY -3
I do have another 4% play this weekend. This is only the second 4% play of the year. The first game was the over in the Minn/SD game, winning rather easily 42-28, going over the total of 44.5 That game was nearly over at halftime. I don't expect this game to be that easy but the situation, teams involved and the line allow us to have a decent chance at this total, even if the game doesn't go our way. Play it accordingly, nothing more and nothing less. It's just one game that stands a good chance of winning but is not a lock. There are no such things.
All side opinions went 3-1 last week and are now 137-112-9 55% over the first eighteen weeks of the season.
Last week I talked about how important it was to only look at the home teams because they had won at least three out of the four games SU for 10 consecutive years in a row. They did it again last week and that makes 11 straight years of winning at least three of four or better. I also talked about the three teams laying three or less points (or dogs) and if we knew they stood a good chance of winning straight up, they would probably also cover the spread. Those three went 2-1 SU and ATS. Keep this in mind for next year.
On to the divisional playoff round or round two if you will. Home teams continue to dominate in this round as well, but against the spread, it's important to know where to look to try and find winners. Over the last 20 years, there have only been three out of the twenty years where the home teams have failed to win more than two of the games straight up. In 17 of those 20 seasons, the home team has won three or more of the home games straight up and only one time in the last thirteen years (1995), which is important because the playoff format changed in 1990 and all home teams were coming off a bye week and facing teams not off a bye week. In the three years where they have failed, they have gone 2-2 SU. So, over the last 20 years, home teams have never failed to win at least half of these games, or two games.
Over those twenty seasons, home teams have been under .500 ATS only four times. Seven times they have gone 2-2 ATS and nine times they have been over .500 ATS. So, 45% of the time you would have won money betting all home teams, 35% of the time you would have gone .500 (lost juice) and 20% of the time you would have lost money. That's enough to probably keep you off the visitor but let's break it down a little more.
Over the last twenty seasons, home teams are now 46-31-3 ats 59.7%. If our home team has more wins than their opponent, they are 42-27-2 60.9% (4-4-1 if not). That would apply to all four teams this year. Ironically enough, if our home team has allowed 20 or less points over their last two games combined, that is a negative. Home teams who have allowed more than 20 points over their last two games are 35-13-1 72.9% (7-14-1 if not (11-18-2 from the 46-31-3)). That would rule out NE this week and leave KC, St. Louis and Philadelphia. By the way, teams allowing 20 or less points over the last two games went 0-3 last week - playing against Green Bay, Dallas and Baltimore. One last caveat to all of this is if the road team is over .500 ATS, then the home team is 25-4-1 86.2% (10-9-1 if not (21-27-2 from the 46-31-3)). That rules out the Rams and leaves us with just Kansas City and Philadelphia for this week. Add in the fact that those 25-4-1 teams are now 20-0-1 since 1987.
To sum it up, home teams are still the way to go in this round. That can change for the next round but this round should still represent the home teams in your arsenal. And, then being able to do a little more research shows us which home teams perform the best. Good luck this weekend.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
ST LOUIS -7.5 Carolina 44.5
With an understanding the great equalizer here is the dome the Rams play in, this Rams team is vastly overrated. I truly believe this is the last game they will win this year, if they win this game. I don't see anyway they can go to Philadelphia and win and a situation that has won 72% of every Conference Championship game over the last 33 years (46-18-2) will play against the Rams next weekend if they host GB. Again, the home field has greatly helped the Rams this year and that can't be overlooked but either can the stats from this Rams team. I've heard all week about how good the Rams are, especially at home, and they are 4-0 SU in the playoffs at home since 1999 (just 2-2 ats). But, let's take a look at some of the numbers from past Rams teams and this year's version. In 1999, the Rams were averaging 33 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game (+9 points) and they were allowing 15 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game (+4 points). In 2001, they were averaging 31 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game (+9 points) and allowing 17 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game (+3 points). This year they are still solid, averaging 28 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game (+6 points) and allowing 20 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game (+1 point). But, the big difference comes in yards per play and this 2003 version of the Rams isn't even close to those teams. In 1999, the Rams averaged 6.4 yards per play against teams allowing 5.2 yards per play (+1.2 yppl) and allowed just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (+0.3 yppl). In 2001, they averaged 6.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl (+0.3 yppl) and allowed 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (+0.3 yppl). This year, their offense is average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl (0.0 yppl) and the defense is below average, allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl (-0.2 yppl). It's also interesting to note the Rams are allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per rush this year to teams averaging just 4.3 ypr (-0.5 ypr), while in 1999, they allowed just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr (+0.5 ypr) and in 2001 they allowed just 3.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr (+0.2 ypr). This is not the same Rams team. In 1999, I played the Rams very large over the Vikings in this same game and leaned towards them over TB, only to see them not cover. In 2001, I played the Rams over my Packers and played Philadelphia in the Conference Championship game, both winners. Since week nine of this year I am 7-2 betting on or against or leaning on or against the Rams. So, this certainly isn't a bias towards the Rams and I would like to think I have a pretty good handle on this team.
Some will point out that since Marshall Faulk has come back the numbers are better but that's not true either. Their rushing numbers have improved from averaging 3.3 ypr to 3.8 ypr with Faulk. But, their yards per play have dropped from averaging 5.9 yppl without Faulk to just 4.8 yppl with Faulk. Part of that is probably the competition and part of that might be because they are running the ball more with Faulk and giving up on the bigger pass plays.
I'm not crazy enough to suggest a best bet on Carolina here, knowing the strength of the home teams in this round but I'm also not crazy enough to place a bet on a team laying this many points, when they average just 3.6 ypr and allow 4.8 ypr. Those are not numbers of a winning team, come playoff time.
I am leaning to Carolina because the Rams are just an average team laying a lot of points, Carolina is actually the better team in this game and Carolina is the type of team that gives the Rams trouble. Carolina averages 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, while the Rams are allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. So, Carolina's offense is better than the Rams defense, from a yards per play angle. On offense, the Rams are just average, gaining 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl and Carolina is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. Again, Carolina's defense is better than the Rams offense.
My question for Rams bettors would be who has St. Louis beaten at home this year that is comparable to this Carolina team? They struggled to beat SF by three, defeated Arizona and Atlanta, which don't count. They did beat GB but I think GB is a much better team now than then. They got killed by Baltimore but managed to win that game by forcing seven turnovers. The Rams gained only 121 total yards in that game at 2.4 yppl. They sacked Baltimore seven times. I doubt they will do that here against a Carolina team that has only been sacked 26 times all year. Baltimore has been sacked 41 times this year. They beat bad defensive teams Minnesota and Cincinnati and won by five over a good Seattle team, who is actually slightly better than average on defense. Meanwhile, for Carolina they have been a road dog four times and gone 3-1 ats, while losing their only game ats by four points and are 4-1 ats overall as a dog. Most important for Carolina is they went to Indianapolis to play a similar but much better Colts team as 4.5 point dogs and won that game 23-20 in OT. The Colts defense is very similar to the Rams. They both have excellent outside rushers in Little and Freeney, both allow 0.5 ypr more than their opponents average (4.5-4.0 and 4.8-4.3). Both play average pass defense. But, on offense, there is no comparison. Indy's offense is head and shoulders above the Rams offense. It's not even close.
Again, the Rams have had plenty of trouble against teams who can rush the passer. I went back and looked at the teams the Rams have played at home since 1999 that can put pressure on the quarterback. This year Carolina averages 2.4 sacks per game against teams allowing 2.0 sacks per game. So, Carolina is above average in sacking the quarterback. I went back and looked at all teams that were above average sacking the quarterback, above average in allowing yards per play and above average in allowing points per game. The Rams have played 11 teams at home since 1999 that fit that criteria and they are 8-3 SU but just 3-7-1 ats and have only won three of those 11 games by more than seven points. And one win was this year against Baltimore, which I consider to be a fraud win.
My final numbers show the Rams should be favored by seven points (using a power rating number) and by seven points using a home/away scoring formula. Those numbers were achieved by allowing the Rams extra points for home field advantage in the playoffs.
The only point I'm trying to get across here is the public tends to get all caught up in the home field advantage of these teams but this is not a good match-up for the Rams in this game. If Carolina can keep the turnover margin to -1 or better, I think they cover this game. People tend to think Carolina is just a running team and if the Rams take away the run, Carolina won't be able to move the ball. That's simply not true. This team only ran the ball 52% of the time so they certainly don't have a problem throwing the ball and they averaged 6.3 yps against teams allowing just 6.1 yps this season. That's just as good as the Rams, who averaged 6.2 yps against 6.0 yps this season. Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad are excellent receivers who will get open down field. On the road this year, Carolina has faced similar pass defenses in Indy and New Orleans and a better pass defense in Dallas. They averaged 6.6 yps, 5.2 yps and 6.5 yps against those three teams. Against similar poor rush defenses, like Indy, NO and Houston, they averaged 4.6 ypr, 5.7 ypr and 5.0 ypr. And, they even averaged 4.3 ypr at Tampa Bay. There is no reason to think Carolina can't move the ball against this Rams defense. I think the general perception is Carolina is only a running team and the Rams offense is much better than it really is. If I'm right that Carolina can throw the ball and the Rams offense is just average, Carolina will cover, if not win this game SU. If I'm wrong, it won't be close. That's why they play the games. The Rams do qualify in a situation that plays on home teams when the total is 42 or higher. That situation is 41-12-2 after going 1-1 last week with Indy and Green Bay, but again, I simply don't like this match-up.
One last note to this game. The Rams average 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a difference of zero. Their defense allows 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a difference of -0.2 yppl. Add the two together (0.00 + -0.02) and you get -0.2 yppl. Since 1983, in this round, there have been 29 teams that have played with a negative balance, from a yards per play perspective. Two of those teams played against each other. Of those 29 teams, only eight won their game straight up. And 12 of those teams were home teams and 11 were home favorites. Those home favorites went 2-8-1 ats, winning only three of those 12 games by more than seven points. ST LOUIS 24 CAROLINA 23
NEW ENGLAND -6 Tennessee 35
It looks like it's going to be awful cold in Foxboro come Saturday night, with temperatures possibly at zero. That's going to make it tough to move the ball in those temperatures. As for this game NE qualifies in a 45-17-1 situation that is based on their great ATS record this season but that situation is only 8-7-1 if the play on team allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. For whatever reason, coming off of two great defensive efforts, is a negative in the playoffs, especially in the first two rounds. That pointspread situation is 26-12-1 in the first two rounds but just 3-7-1 if our play on team has allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. Maybe it's because these teams get overvalued although the line rarely matters as teams in this round have covered the spread over 82% of the time if they win SU and over 75% of the time when winning SU as a favorite. Maybe these teams take things for granted because they think they are better than what they really are after a couple of good defensive efforts. Maybe they beat some inferior teams and are now playing much better teams or maybe their opponent gets even more focused realizing they are in for a dog fight. Whatever the reason, these teams don't perform well and teams allowing 20 or less in their last two games went 0-3 last weekend. As for this game, I just don't see how Tennessee is going to be able to move the ball consistently against this Patriots defense. I had NE in their first meeting this year that NE won 38-30. To be honest, they were a bit lucky to win that game but they have continued to get better each week. NE has won every home game this year by six or more points so this number could be a key number. The NE offense isn't anything special, gaining just 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl but their offense is better than Tennessee's defense, which is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And the NE defense is better than the Tennessee offense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl against the Tennessee offense averaging 5.5 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl. My final numbers suggest NE by six and five points so the line is pretty close to the numbers. I just think NE is the better team, is healthier and better rested for this game. If it weren't for the 20 or less points situation going against NE in this game, I would be on them in a best bet. NEW ENGLAND 22 TENNESSEE 13
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 Green Bay 41.5
If there is one game this week where the situations clearly lie with one team, it is this game. And they clearly lie with Philadelphia in this game. With that said, and admitting I bleed Green & Gold, I believe this game is a bad match-up for Philadelphia. Philadelphia qualifies in the 25-4-1 situation listed above, which is now 20-0-1 since 1987. If this total is at 42 or higher, they would also qualify in a situation that is 41-12-1, which is based on higher totals favoring the home team in the playoffs. It will be up to you, the reader, to determine if my lean towards GB is either the Green & Gold goggles I wear or actually a fair analysis of this game. Philly also qualifies in an against the spread situation, which is 45-17-1. That situation is based on Philly's excellent spread record this year and those teams seem to perform very well in the playoffs.
But, Philly, like St. Louis, isn't the better team in this game. Green Bay continues to play outstanding football, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl while the Philadelphia defense is allowing 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl, which indicates the Green Bay offense is better than the Philadelphia defense. Philly's offense is averaging 5.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and goes against a Green Bay defense, which is allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, which makes the Philly offense better than the Philly defense. Brian Westbrook won't play in this game, which could hurt their offensive production.
I mentioned last week that the Packers defense has really stepped it up against the run ever since they signed Grady Jackson and the fact the Packers had played much better defense as of late but against some poor offensive teams. Last week, Seattle moved the ball well against the Green Bay defense, but a closer look shows they actually did a very good job. They allowed Seattle to gain 340 yards (Seattle averages 352 yards per game), 5.0 yppl (Seattle averages 5.5 yppl), only 2.3 ypr (Seattle averages 4.4 ypr) and 6.2 yps (Seattle averages 6.4 yps). On offense, the Packers had their rushing game shutdown last week, gaining just 78 yards at 2.4 ypr but they showed they can throw the ball, passing for 319 yards at 8.4 yps. The Green Bay offense is very solid right now and they should see some success against a Philadelphia rush defense that is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. GB ran for 241 yards at 6.5 ypr. Philly's rush defense had allowed 100 yards or more rushing in 11 straight games prior to their shutout of a Washington team that appeared to have quit. Even if Philadelphia looks to stop the run like most teams have as of late, GB will be able to throw the ball with their better than average passing game.
I use a formula that seems to rate teams pretty accurately. GB has averaged 28 points per game this year against teams allowing just 23 points per game for a total of +5 points better and their defense allows just 19 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game for a total of +3 points better. If you add those two numbers together, GB adds up to +9 (6 + 3). For Philadelphia, they have averaged 23 points per game against teams allowing 20 points per game for a total of +3 and their defense has allowed 18 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game for a total of +1. That adds up to +4 points better than average. From this we can see GB is the better team with a +9 versus a +4 for Philadelphia. You may or may not agree with this methodology but I can tell you that looking back over the last 20 seasons, there have only been five times when a team has had a rating of eight or higher and been an underdog against a team with a lower rating. All five of those teams were on the road and they went 4-1 ats. The most recent example of this was in 2001 when Philly went to Chicago as a three point dog and won the game 33-19. Green Bay is simply the better team in this game and the match-up favors them as well. My ratings favor Philly by only 3.5 points and my scoring formula only favors Philly by one point. This line, for whatever reason, is greatly exaggerated. Even though the situations clearly line up with Philly in this game, I'm not biting. Perhaps it's because I bleed Green & Gold but I went against the Packers when they played in St. Louis in 2001 in this round but that was a much different situation.
The play I like the best in this game is the over. I really think this game is a slam dunk to go over the total. The last time the Packers averaged this many points per game was in 1996 when they won the SB. I'm not anointing them the SB winner but back in 1996 I knew their offense was good for 30 points per game and that is the same thing this year. They have now scored 31 or more points in five straight games. This game is on the road and they may not get their 30+ points, but they will get their 24-27 points in this game. Barring a barrage of turnovers, that is a given. Philadelphia, somehow, someway, manages to get their points and they have scored at least 24 points in every home game this year since their third home game, when they began to turn around their season. Against good defenses like Dallas and Miami (road game), they managed to score 36 and 34 points so they can certainly get their points against better than average defenses. In eight games against better than average offenses, GB has allowed an average of 24 points this year and 27 points per game against the three better than average offenses they played on the road. Philly played SF two games ago at home and lost that game 28-31. The SF defense is average, which is probably somewhat close to the Packers when you consider how they play against the better offenses in the league. The SF offense is balanced and similar to GB but not as good as GB. In that game, SF was without Terrell Owens for most of the game but they still allowed SF to gain 414 yards at 5.6 yppl, including 206 yards rushing. It should be pointed out in that game that two of the three Philadelphia touchdowns came on drives of 40 yards or shorter while all three of SF touchdowns came on drives of 57 yards or more. All three of these teams, SF, GB and Philly, run the same offense and are very familiar with each other. The first game between GB and Philly only saw 31 points being scored but the weather was very poor and GB ran the ball nearly 60% of that game, partly because of the weather and because of Favre's thumb. Brett Favre is the kind of quarterback that won't quit and his team is good for at least one late score if they are getting beat badly. If GB is winning, Philadelphia, at home, is good for some late points as well. So, I don't see how these teams won't be able to score late in the game if we need a score to help push this game over the total, unless the game is very close, but I can't see either team not getting to 20 points in this game. The average points scored in a NFL game are 42 points so we are asking two better than average offenses to go against two average defenses and score a normal amount of points in a NFL game. Lastly, GB has now played seven games on the road in the playoffs during the Favre era, where they have been installed as underdogs. All seven of those games have seen at least 44 total points scored and the Packers have allowed at least 24 or more points in six of those seven, including at least 17 points in every game. Final numbers, using three different formula's predict about 47, 53 and 49 points being scored in this game. PHILADELPHIA 30 GREEN BAY 27
KANSAS CITY -3 Indianapolis 50.5
Indy sure looked like a different team last week against Denver, winning easily 41-10. But, I think it will get much more difficult for them this week in Kansas City. Checking the write-up above for this round, you can see KC qualifies in the 25-4-1 situation, which is now 20-0-1 since 1987. These offenses are very similar, but the KC offense is a little better than the Indy offense. KC averaged 5.9 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl this year, while the Indy offense averaged 5.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl. The KC offense was a little better balanced as well, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr (which is just average) and 7.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Indy averaged just 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr (which is below average) and 7.1 yps against 5.9 yps (which is solid but slightly behind KC). On defense, both teams allowed 21 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game but the KC defense allowed a lot more yards per game than Indy. KC allowed 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl, while Indy allowed just 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The Chiefs are allowing just 4.5 ypr, 5.1 yps and 4.9 yps at home. They haven't played an offense the likes of Indy at home but they do play much better defense at home. Playing in a dome like Indy does will also hurt their chances this weekend. Dome teams, when playing on the road outdoors are just 11-26-1 ats since 1970 when getting 10 or less points (or favored). This is also Kansas City's first playoff game since 1997. Teams playing their first playoff home game in at least five years (when not facing a team who is in their first playoff game in at least three years) are now 23-5-0. And teams playing their first playoff game in at least three years (home/away) are now 29-7 if their opponent isn't in the same situation. Seattle covered with that last week. My final numbers favor KC by 8.5 points and by six points. They also suggest about 48 points being scored. When the total is set at 42 or higher, the home teams tend to cover, going 41-12-1 when laying less than 10 points, after winning with Indy last week and losing with GB. Value and the situations clearly lie with KC in this game. KANSAS CITY 34 INDIANAPOLIS 21
BEST BETS
YTD 58-46-5 +17.90%
4% GREEN BAY/PHILADELPHIA OVER 41.5
3% KANSAS CITY -3
