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Maddux Future NFL picks

20* Kansas City under 8.5 wins

20* Carolina under 8.5 wins

10* Seattle under 11

Week 1
10* Tampa bay +1.5

 

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Steve Fezzik


3* NFL Season Win Carolina UNDER 8.5 -150 also say taking UNDER 8 +100 or +105 is basically same price



2* Week 1 NFL Tampa Bay +1.5

3* Under 43.5 in Baltimore/Cincy Week 1

 

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UNLV Over 4.5 +125 (Bonus Play)

 

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Nfl Future - Carolina Panthers Under 8 1/2 (-180) Season Wins $1000

 

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INDY UNDER reg season wins

 

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BALT UNDER reg season wins

 

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Maddux

Monday September 8th

(10*) Giants/Detroit over 46

 

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Friday Aug 29th

[151] UTSA +12.5

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 wins

 

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Prediction Machine

best bet Bears UNDER 8.5

 

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College football Betting 101: Importance of capping QB changes
By JASON LOGAN

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are beginning to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

In order to help you focus your energy on the most important components of college football capping this summer, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

Part I on this Betting 101 series focuses on handicapping teams with new starting quarterbacks – the most important position on the field when it comes to covering the spread and deciding the Over/Under.

Capping college QBs

Swapping out quarterbacks can be the beginning of a long, long season for some teams. Or it can signal the start of something big, like with Florida State and then-freshman Jameis Winston last season.

No one expected the Seminoles’ new QB, taking over for long-time passer and first-round NFL draft pick E.J. Manuel, to lead FSU to the national title as well as become just the second freshman to win the Heisman Trophy. But, here we are, with Winston and Florida State set as a 3/1 favorite to win a second straight NCAA championship.

Much like starting pitchers in baseball, no player in football can make or break your bets like the quarterback, which is why many sharps start their college football prep with those teams undergoing a changing of the guard under center.

There are a few different situations teams can find themselves in when ushering in a fresh-faced No. 1: Standout freshman, promoted backup, transfers, and a bare cupboard.

“Like the NFL, a QB change from one season to the next can be a significant one,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Is it a freshman taking control of the team for the first time, or is it a transfer?

“However, unlike the NFL, a lot of the time a college team won't see a big dropoff in production due to the overall ‘system’. My advice is to look at each quarterback change on its own, and not generalize.”

Here’s an example of some teams going through these new QB situations and how bettors should treat them during the early schedule:

Standout freshmen

Top-tier programs recruit the biggest and best from the high school ranks, and following in the footsteps of Winston at FSU and Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M – two freshman Heisman winners – is LSU’s redshirt freshman QB Brandon Harris.

Louisiana State is replacing Zach Mettenberger, who threw for over 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2013. Those are some big shoes to fill, but Harris looks to be the favorite to win the starting job. Reports from Tigers camp have done nothing but praise the dual-threat QB, who could take college’s toughest conference by storm – much like the way Manziel did in the Aggies' first year in the SEC.

Looking at LSU’s national title odds (20/1) and odds to win the SEC title (6/1), the expectations aren’t as high for the Tigers as they are for other SEC rivals, like Alabama, Georgia or even Auburn. That could open the door for some early value, especially if the market reacts negatively when Harris is named starter.

Promoted backups

Staying within the SEC, the Georgia Bulldogs bid farewell to four-year starter Aaron Murray last season – but not the way they wanted to. Murray suffered a torn ACL in November, just one of the numerous injuries UGA dealt with in 2013.

However, Murray’s injury opened the door for his would-be replacement to get some SEC experience before officially taking over in 2014. Hutson Mason started the final two games of the season, passing for a combined 619 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

Mason enters this season with a loaded roster behind him, including weapons like WR and Star Wars nerd Chris Conley and RB Todd Gurley. The expectations are high for the Bulldogs, but Mason isn’t your usual promoted backup and should adjust to the No. 1 spot quickly.

Transfers

Cam Newton, who played junior college ball at Blinn College after a brief stint at Florida, transferred to Auburn for the 2010 season and had one of the greatest single seasons in college football history.

Newton earned the Heisman en route to a national title for the Tigers and was selected as the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft. Now, Newton is the extreme case when it comes to transfers. But we’ve also seen graduate QBs – not needing to sit out a year - make an instant impact at their new school, like Russell Wilson’s move from North Carolina State to Wisconsin for the 2011 season.

This year, Alabama is hoping for some transfer magic with former Florida State QB Jacob Coker taking over the Tide for graduated A.J. McCarron, who not only piloted Bama to two national championships, but brought sideline eye candy to every game thanks to girlfriend Katherine Webb.

Who knows if Coker can compete on McCarron's level when it comes to gal pals but he has quite the buzz growing in Tuscaloosa and tops ESPN’s list of the Top 50 Breakout Player in college football this season. He has more than enough help with Alabama surrounding the 6-foot-5, 230-pound prospect with the best talent in the country.

However, the Crimson Tide are among the most popular teams in college football and garner similar support at the sportsbook, which can inflate Alabama’s lines. Those spreads may be a little too much for Coker as he adjusts to his new targets and life in the SEC.

Bare cupboards

Sometimes a star quarterback’s departure leaves a massive crater in the depth chart that can’t be filled overnight. This happens more often to smaller schools than power-conference members due to recruiting prowess.

Often times, the team’s offense and entire identity are built around those arms, who usually stay for three, four and five years at these outlining schools. Once they go, programs are forced to start from scratch or rebuild their entire playbook. And if there is no proven QB to take over the No. 1 spot, this transition can be devastating.

Central Florida finds itself in this situation with star quarterback and Heisman finalist Blake Bortles jumping to the pros with no reliable replacement for the Knights. Head coach George O'Leary hasn’t shown his hand as to who will be his Week 1 starter, with sophomore Justin Holman as the only QB with any regular season snaps on his resume.

Northern Illinois is another team absorbing a big loss at quarterback with option God Jordan Lynch burning up his eligibility. That leaves second-year head coach Rod Carey with four choices at QB – freshman Landon Root, junior Matt McIntosh, and sophomores Anthony Maddie and Drew Hare.

As the old football adage goes, “If you have three starting QBs you don’t have any,” and NIU’s running game is a bit banged up entering 2014. So whichever passer makes the grade, they could start the season with the bulk of offense on their inexperienced shoulders.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football Betting 101: Importance of capping coaching changes
By JASON LOGAN

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are beginning to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

In order to help you focus your energy on the most important components of college football capping this summer, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

Part II on this Betting 101 series focuses on handicapping teams undergoing coaching changes, whether that be head coaches or coordinators, and how they will adjust to new schemes and systems in the early NCAAF schedule:

Capping coaching changes

There are 20 teams with new head coaches heading into the 2014 college football season. That number seems pretty tame compared to the 31 new coaches who took the sidelines last season. Needless to say, coaches are on a shorter leash than ever when it comes to producing winning results in the FBS ranks.

“Coaching changes happen all the time in College Football,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Sometimes a head coach will get wooed by a bigger school, other times it's in hopes of re-energizing a struggling program. Make sure to know exactly what the situation is when it comes to a team with a new coach, over or under-reacting to these types of scenarios is something that a lot of novice bettors tend to do.”

We take a look at three ways in which coaching changes can impact your college football bets in the early stages of the NCAAF season, which programs fall into those categories, and how you should treat those transitions when it comes to making your plays every Saturday.

Head coaching changes

As mentioned above, there are 20 FBS programs wiping the slate clean with a new head coach this season. Some schools are hoping these new leaders can return them to glory while others are scrambling to find a new coach after having theirs poached by a bigger program.

One of the highest-profile coaching changes is in the Pac-12, where former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian was lured away by the sun, surf and surplus of talent at Southern California, where he was an assistant for many years.

Sarkisian is installing his breakneck offense, which helped Washington rank 13th in total yards (499.3) in 2013, but this time he has USC’s thoroughbred horses running the system, which should produce some huge offensive numbers in Southern Cal. But don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains with Sarkisian’s new system, offering value to go against USC’s big spreads and lofty totals.

While coaching swaps like Sarkisian’s are heavily publicized and monitored by the media – giving bettors excellent insight to every practice and scrimmage this offseason – the lesser-known coaching changes in the smaller conferences are tougher to tangle with.

Craig Bohl is taking over in Wyoming for Dave Christensen, who was fired after going just 27-35 in five seasons for the Cowboys.

It’s a drastic change of pace for Wyoming, which ran the spread under Christensen and is now going with a smash-mouth running style that helped lead Bohl to three-straight FCS national titles at North Dakota State. And the defense is changing over as well, tossing the old 3-4 scheme and going with a 4-3 Tampa-2 playbook.

Smaller programs, like Wyoming, don’t have the recruiting prowess of schools like USC, so the pickings can be slim when it comes to proper personnel to run a new system. It may take a year or even two before a new coach gets his own recruits in place.

New coordinators

Speaking of Wyoming, former head coach Dave Christensen was scooped up by Utah just days after being fired and given the offensive coordinators gig in Salt Lake City.

Christensen is using his spread-option offense to breathe life into the Utes offense, which averaged only 396.7 yards per game (77th) in 2013 – certainly not enough to get by in the high-scoring Pac-12. He’s worked his magic with quarterbacks at Wyoming and Missouri and is hoping to sharpen 6-foot-7 QB Travis Wilson.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has been with the program for a long time – started as a defensive line coach in 1994 – so it will be interesting to see how wide open he allows Christensen to run the offense this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia added a national championship-caliber coordinator in former Florida State DC Jeremy Pruitt. He just came off a campaign in which the Seminoles' stop unit limited opponents to 12.1 points per games – tops in the land.

However, that doesn’t mean Pruitt can work that same magic at UGA. The Bulldogs ranked 10th in scoring defense in the SEC – arguably a more talented conference than the ACC. Pruitt had to prepare for the likes of Syracuse, Wake Forest and North Carolina State last season, but now takes a step up with some dynamic and deep SEC scoring attacks on the slate.

“I pay extra attention to teams that are introducing new offensive or defensive schemes,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “I look closely at how healthy and experienced teams are along the offensive and defensive lines. Even if I’m not making any future wagers, I look at teams Over/Under projections, as it’s helpful in gauging expectations.”

Coaches on the hot seat

While this may not be an official coaching change, there are plenty of guys wearing the headsets that will likely be headset-less next fall - if they don’t turn their programs around pronto.

“Coaches that need statement wins to make fans forget about last year: This can be coaches taking over new programs and had disappointing results last year or coaches that are on the hot seat,” says Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports.

Heading into the 2014 campaign, Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema is looking for a quick turnaround after going 0-8 in SEC play last season. According to Doc’s Sports, bettors should look for the Razorbacks to run up the score versus weaker foes Nicholls State and Northern Illinois in order to appease the fanbase.

As for coaches on the hot seat, time is ticking on names like Charlie Weis (Kansas), Will Muschamp (Florida), and Bo Pelini (Nebraska), who have all failed to meet the lofty expectations when taking over at the respective schools. Could that fire ignite an extra effort in the early going or will these coaches burn up and be fired by the time winter sets in?

 

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College football Betting 101: Capping starters, schedules, and close shaves
By JASON LOGAN

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are beginning to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

In order to help you focus your energy on the most important components of college football capping this summer, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

We looked at capping quarterback changes in Part I, capping coaching changes in Part II, and now focus on three important factors – returning starters, schedule, and close wins/losses – in Part III.

Returning starters

Experience is worth its weight in gold when it comes to cashing in your college football bets, so digging into which programs bring back the most returning starters can help you get a solid start to the season. However, just because a team has 70 percent of their starting offense back from last year doesn’t mean they’re instantly a contender.

“It’s important to know what each team returns in net starters, but it’s even more important to know the exact positions those starters are returning to,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “For example, a team could return seven starters on offense, but if the four non-returning players were three linemen and a quarterback, then that is a big negative despite the high number of returning starters.”

Bettors should also be careful when capping returning starters with poor teams. A program like Iowa State is bringing back nine starters on offense, but that group also ranked 97th in total yardage so expecting a big turnaround from that lack of production is unreasonably optimistic.

Schedule

Many teams like to ease into the season with a softer schedule, like a man slowly making his way into cold water. And some dive head first with a high-profile showdown in Week 1.

Bettors can find plenty of lookahead and letdown spots in the early going. Teams tuning up with FCS opponents can often lookahead to the FBS clash in the coming week or try to rest some of their starters if they get up, opening you up for a backdoor cover when the second and third stringers take the field.

Teams opening the slate with a big-game bang can often find themselves in letdown mode the following week, especially if their national title hopes were dosed in Week 1. All it takes is one big loss and programs can instantly be out of the playoff picture. That disappointment off a loss or a false sense of over-achievement off a win can lead plenty of teams into a letdown the following week.

“I think it's important to get a good feel for the schedules, and generating an idea or opinion of how a particular team's season is likely to ebb and flow,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “Just how important is an early season step-up game? Are there spots in September where a team could be prone to looking ahead? You don't need to have a definitive answer to those questions now, but giving them consideration at this time of year can help you in the long run.”

Another key for capping schedules, especially when talking about teams in the major conferences, is strength of the conference calendar. Often times programs can avoid playing the elite members of their conference, much like Georgia dodging SEC bullets Alabama and LSU this season, and build an unblemished record against weaker opponents.

“With conferences getting bigger and bigger each year, it's important to note which opponents a team will avoid in the upcoming season,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “This can be really huge in conferences like the SEC where the bottom teams in both divisions are significantly weaker than the top. If a team from the East Division can avoid, say both Alabama and LSU on its schedule, it has a much better chance of finishing on top.”

Close wins/losses

A team’s overall record isn’t always an honest assessment of their talent level. Some teams that scratched and clawed for a .500 mark could have easily been two or three wins better if not for some heartbreaking losses.

The same goes for the flipside of that argument. Often times teams can be overrated based on their win/loss count, with a closer look revealing some close calls and lucky bounces. Finding and addressing these programs is a great way to spot hidden value early in the season, when many of the odds are based on last year’s accomplishments.

“Last year’s results can help determine what type of season a team will have this year,” says Merril. “For example, if a team had a lot of close wins - I use seven points or less - or a lot of close losses - seven points or less - then I dig into them a bit deeper because often times the good or bad fortunes reverse the next season. The close winners often fail ATS while the close losers often thrive ATS.”

One example given by Covers Expert Will Rogers is Northwestern, which stumbled to the bottom of the Big Ten West with a 5-7 record in 2013. However, looking closer at the Wildcats’ wins and losses and bettors discover than NU suffered two overtime losses and two more defeats by three points. Picking up victories in those close contests would have boosted Northwestern to 9-3 and second place in the Big Ten West.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC South NFL betting preview: Texans are elephant in the room
By STEVE MERRIL



The Indianapolis Colts are overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South crown this season, however the elephant in the room is the Houston Texans. After a dreadful 2013, can Houston get back into playoff contention and give the Colts some competition in the league’s weakest division?


Covers Experts Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to wager on the AFC South and gives season win total picks for each team heading into the 2014 NFL campaign:


Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -150
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Colts: It was another good year for the Colts in 2013 as they went 11-5 SU and won a playoff game. Indianapolis is lucky to be playing in such a weak division and they’ve taken full advantage of that. The Colts beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos last year, so they can also beat good teams. Andrew Luck will be a good NFL quarterback for years to come, so Indianapolis deserves to be favored in this division.

Why not bet the Colts: Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.


Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Texans: Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.

Why not bet the Texans: They went just 2-14 SU in 2013 with an embarrassing minus-152 point differential. The Texans still need to get production out of their starting quarterback, but O’Brien has been successful with lesser names because of his schemes. However, quarterback play is still a major question mark for Houston heading into this season. The Texans play five of their first eight games on the road, so they’ll be challenged right from the get-go.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Titans: The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.


Why not bet the Titans: There’s a transition going on with the Titans. They have a new coaching staff with head coach Ken Whisenhunt and they don’t have RB Chris Johnson anymore (Jets). Whisenhunt has done good things with offenses, but he always had a veteran quarterback to work with (Rivers in San Diego last year). Jake Locker played hurt last season, but he was serviceable. Overall, the Titans will be a middle of the road team in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,800
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Jaguars: If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.


Why not bet the Jaguars: Despite the good finish, Jacksonville was horrendous early in 2013. The Jaguars were 0-8 SU over their first eight games while losing by 22.3 points per game. Jacksonville took QB Blake Bortles with the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, but insiders say Chad Henne will start under center. The quarterback situation is a major concern for Jacksonville once again and the position will likely hamper the Jaguars in 2014.


Season win total pick: Over 4.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 college football betting preview: Sooners class of the conference
By STEVE MERRIL

The Big 12 appears to be Oklahoma’s to lose – according to the futures odds. But don’t tell that to the Sooners’ Texas rivals in Waco and Austin.


Covers Expert Steve Merril breaks down the Big 12, the best way to bet its members, and gives season win total picks for the upcoming 2014 college football schedule:


Oklahoma Sooners (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -200
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Sooners: The overwhelming favorites to win the conference are also legitimate National Championship contenders. Oklahoma gets all of its toughest games at home this season, and have the best defense in the Big 12 - one of the best stop units in all of college football.

Why not bet the Sooners: Despite Trevor Knight’s breakout performance in the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, the Sooners need to get consistent play from the quarterback position. Knight needs to stay healthy (knee). Keep in mind he’s also inexperienced with just five collegiate starts. Oklahoma will likely be favored in every game this season.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

Baylor Bears (2013: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Bears: Baylor’s offense is dynamic and virtually unstoppable. Quarterback Bryce Petty returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s nation-leading offense that averaged 52.4 points and 618.8 yards per game. Baylor head coach Art Briles has led the Bears to a 30-10 record over the last three seasons.

Why not bet the Bears: Defense. Baylor’s stop unit improved significantly last season, allowing just 23.5 points and 360 yards per game. The Bears gave up 37.2 points and 502 yards per game the season before. They return just four defensive starters this season, so they will certainly regress from their 2013 numbers.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Texas Longhorns (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +550
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Longhorns: The Mack Brown era is over as Charlie Strong comes over from Louisville. Texas was stale under Brown and the coaching change is definitely a positive. With 15 returning starters, Strong has the pieces to make Texas relevant again this season. The Longhorns’ defense will keep them competitive in every game.

Why not bet the Longhorns: The quarterback position is a major concern. Texas has rotated quarterbacks in and out over the past few seasons and the offense was never able to get into a rhythm and be consistent. Quarterback David Ash must stay healthy for Texas to win but as of right now, his injury concerns make the Longhorns a wild card.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Kansas State Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Kansas State has a lot of momentum after winning six of its last seven games to closeout 2013. The Wildcats will have a potent offense with QB Jake Waters and all of the playmakers returning. Bill Snyder rarely gets out-coached and with lesser expectations this season, Kansas State will surprise.

Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats return just five starters on defense and they play a tough schedule in 2014. Kansas State will play five Big 12 road games, including trips to Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor. It also hosts Auburn in mid-September. The defense must replace standouts Ty Zimmerman and Blake Slaughter.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Oklahoma State Cowboys (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Oklahoma State has been consistent under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won eight or more games in six consecutive seasons. The quarterback position is finally stable with J.W. Walsh, and aside from their season opener versus Florida State, the Cowboys’ schedule is manageable until November when they close with the Top 4 choices in the Big 12.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The team returns just eight total starters and its road schedule is brutal in conference play. Trips to TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially late in the season when injuries and fatigue take their toll.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


TCU Horned Frogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1200
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU’s defense returns nine starters from a unit that was one of the best in the Big 12 last season. The Horned Frogs will be even better this season with experience, especially since their best players return. Despite eight losses in 2013, TCU was competitive in six of those games while losing by 10 points or less.

Why not bet the Horned Frogs: TCU’s offense is undergoing changes. The Horned Frogs will have a new system under co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. They want to speed things up with an up-tempo attack, but implementing new systems takes time. TCU’s season hinges on its offense.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Texas Tech Red Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2800
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Red Raiders: Kliff Kingsbury’s first season as head coach was successful. Texas Tech won eight games, including a win over Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl. The Red Raiders should build off that success, especially their offense which returns nine starters.

Why not bet the Red Raiders: Texas Tech closed the 2013 regular season by losing five straight games. The defense allowed 38 points or more in every one of those games. The defensive line is inexperienced with JuCo transfers and the overall youth on defense will limit Texas Tech’s season.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5


West Virginia Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Mountaineers: Dana Holgorsen’s offensive system has proven to work, but last season was a disaster (26.3 ppg). Things should be much improved in Morgantown in 2014. Quarterback Clint Trickett returns along with plenty of skill players, so the offense should put up better numbers this season.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: West Virginia plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and it’s going to be extremely difficult for WVU to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers open with Alabama in Atlanta and then face Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Kansas State over a 10-week stretch.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Iowa State Cyclones (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State has a lot of positives working in its favor. Expectations are extremely low in Ames, so the Cyclones may catch some teams by surprise. The offense is in “remodeling mode” according to new coordinator Mark Mangino. Iowa State has 15 returning starters and its toughest games are at home. Five of its nine losses last season came by eight points or less.

Why not bet the Cyclones: The Cyclones have leveled off under head coach Paul Rhoads. In his first four years, they averaged six wins per season. They bottomed out at 3-9 in 2013. The talent is thin at Iowa State and its conference record will be poor once again.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5


Kansas Jayhawks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +15000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Jayhawks: Kansas returns 17 starters this season - the most in the Charlie Weis era. After winning just one game in his first year, Weis was able to get three wins out of the Jayhawks last season. Another step forward isn’t out of the question, especially with an experienced team.

Why not bet the Jayhawks: The Jayhawks have been embarrassingly bad on offense the last two years. They averaged just 18.3 points per game in 2012 and 15.3 points per game in 2013. The Big 12 has some strong defensive teams and unless Kansas’ offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish in the cellar once again in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fezzik

8/28

UL Monroe +3
Mississippi vs. Boise under 56

8/30

UCF pk

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC East NFL betting preview: New England's division to lose
By SEAN MURPHY

The AFC East is likely the Patriots to lose again this year, but they could get a serious push from at least two of their three division rivals.

Covers Expert Sean Murphy breaks down the best ways to wager on the AFC East and gives a season win total pick for each of its members heading into the new NFL campaign:

New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: 1-3
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Patriots: Injuries played a major role in the offense’s hiccups a year ago, but all indications are that Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson will be at full speed to open the new campaign. The defense should be better with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, adding to an already underrated core. And of course the Pats are still led by a guy by the name of Tom Brady.

Why not bet the Patriots: Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5

Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Bills: Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.

Why not bet the Bills: Is E.J. Manuel the right quarterback to lead the offense? He showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season, but when he went down to injury, Thaddeus Lewis didn’t represent a major drop-off. The running game needs to be more consistent, but C.J. Spiller has yet to prove that he can take a pounding for 16 games. The margin for error is slim and we’ll see if the Bills respond favorably to the pressure.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: 5-1
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Dolphins: Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.

Why not bet the Dolphins: Fixing the offensive line will be easier said than done. That unit will likely remain a work in progress when the games start to count. Ryan Tannehill has a lot of upside but he’s by no means an elite quarterback at this stage of his career. Unless the ground game can take off, Tannehill will continue to be placed in tough situations on a regular basis.

Season win total pick: Over

New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Jets: A little quarterback competition never hurt anyone, and the Jets offense should benefit from the battle between Geno Smith and Michael Vick. New York had an offense-heavy draft, picking guys that can step in and perform right away. The addition of Eric Decker gives it a legitimate red zone target while Chris Johnson joins the backfield. The defense should be formidable up front.

Why not bet the Jets: The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.

Season win total pick: Under 7