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BRIAN LENAORD PIGSKIN REPORT
NOV. 12-NOV17th NCAA DUKE TCU MIAMI FL. LOU. MONROE N.F.L GTS-EAGLES UNDER ARZ CINNY.
RED SHEET
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RED SHEET
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
MIAMI-FLORIDA 48 - Syracuse 7- (12:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 19, and is now minus 20. This is obviously no knee-jerk reaction to the 'Canes' upset loss to Tennessee, as that setback came on the heels of losing the previous week at VaTech. The fact is that this Miami outfit isn't up to normal standards, offensively. But Coker has made a change at QB, as Berlin's performances of late are no longer acceptable (14 interceptions ). Crudup has thrown a pair of INTs himself, but is clicking on 68% of his tosses, & can do much more with the ball. The 'Cuse took out their frustrations on lowly Temple last week, but have been bombed in their last 2 RGs (26 & 13 pt spread losses), and have been destroyed in their last 3 shots at the 'Canes: 26-0, 59-0, & 49-7. Miami takes out its anger in romper.
RATING: MIAMI-FLORIDA 89
Louisiana State 37 - ALABAMA 13- (7:45) -- Line opened at LSU minus 7, and is now minus 6½. The Tide nailed a much needed win last week, with the destruction of Mississippi St. However, the Bulldogs have long since thrown in the towel, & were one of the more non-competitive squads, even before Sherrill called it quits. Simply put, 'Bama's snapping of its 2-game slide was hardly unexpected. Result of that romp is a lower than expected line on this one. The Tigers of LSU hold down the #3 spot in the nation, behind mighty Oklahoma & USC, and certainly deserve that lofty ranking. No team has reached 20 pts vs the Bengals, & don't expect the Tide to change that impressive stat. 'Bama's overland game will be contained, & LSU will extract its pound of flesh for last yr'smbarrassment.
RATING: LOUISIANA STATE 89
Southern California 55 - ARIZONA 10- (7:00) -- Line opened at USC minus 29, and is still minus 29. A year ago, these Trojans, along with Oklahoma, posted some of the most impressive statistical routs in memory. As everyone knows, the Sooners have continued that awesometrend, with eye-popping performances the norm. The Trojans, altho ranking #2 in the land, hadn't been up to '02's stat column standards. Recently, however, Troy has displayed its ferocity. Leinart has actually made a few fans forget Palmer, and is on an impressive 16 TD, 1 INT run in his last 5 contests. 'Cats' upset of Wash last week, only serves to keep Trojans fully focused, and that's exactly what 'Zona doesn't need for this.
RATING: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 88
TULSA 41 - Louisiana Tech 31 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 1, and is now pick-em. One of the more unnoticedaccomplishments this collegiate football season, is the job that DaveKragthorpe has done with these Hurricanes. He inherited a squad which epitomized the word "disappointment". Tulsa posted 1-10 & 1-11 records in '01 & '02, with little hope for any meaningful change, despite returning 16 starters. But as of now, the 'Canes stand at 6-4 SU. Not only that, but are 6-2 SU since losing to powers Minnesota & Arkansas, with their only setbacks by 7 pts at Boise (15-pt cover), & by 7 pts vs Reno, in a 5 turnover effort. Tech rolled LY, but has allowed >33 pts in 5 of its last 6 outings, & pays the price.
RATING: TULSA 88
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 45 - Tulane 17- (3:00) -- Line opened at Southern Miss minus 18, and is now minus 17. The Wave is in off returning to the winners' circle for the first time since its rout of Army on Sept 20th. In that upset, Losman tossed for 3 TDs, with Jackson filling in nicely for the injured Moore, with 183 RYs on 26 carries. However, it hasn't been the Wave's offense which has failed, but its defense, which has been handled with relative ease. That unit ranks 114th in both scoring & total defense. The Eagle are just the opposite, ranking 13th in scoring "D", & more importantly, 7th against the pass. Won't completely contain Losman, but will certainly do enough, with Eagle's "O" doing the rest.
RATING: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 88
NEW ORLEANS 33 - Atlanta 13- (1:00) -- Line opened at New Orleans minus 8½, and is still minus 8½. This one bucks one of the most amazing stats in the history of the NFL, namely the Falcons mastery of the Saints, when in the role of road dogs. Atlanta has covered to the tune of 17-of-18 in that role. However, there is another trend that has gone generally unnoticed, & that is the fact that the outright winner of the last 71 games involving the Saints stands at an unbelievable 68-2-1 ATS, with the only misses coming by 2 & ½ pt (the latter coming this season, with the Saints' 6-pt SU loss, as 6½ pt dogs at Carolina). The Falcons, despite last week's glitch, are lost without Vick. Kittner was at the controls in upset of Giants, but did nothing special. Saints have too many weapons & are rested.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Missouri, Okla St, Memphis, Duke -- NFL: Titans, Bengals, Cowboys, Niners
WINNING POINTS
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WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
BEST BETS
**** Cincinnati over Kansas City by 10
*** New York Giants over *Philadelphia by 12
RECOMMENDATIONS
Baltimore over *Miami by 8
*Oakland over Minnesota by 6
SUMMARY OF NFL TOTALS
**UNDER: Baltimore at Miami– The Dolphins reached the halfway mark ranked second in stopping the run, while the Ravens should be able to contain Ricky Williams (barely averaging more than three yards per carry).
OVER: Houston at Buffalo – The Texans are surrendering an average of 30.6 points on the road, while their offense has become balanced with rookie running back Domanick Davis emerging as a star.
UNDER: San Diego at Denver – Doug Flutie could have trouble passing in Denver’s unpredictable weather, and Jake Plummer could be rusty if given the start.
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
BEST BETS
**** TULSA* over LOUISIANA TECH by 20
*** NEW MEXICO* over AIR FORCE by 20
RECOMMENDATIONS
Iowa* over Minnesota by 18
Clemson* over Duke by 3
Memphis over Louisville* by 4
L.S.U. over Alabama* by 19
ANALYSIS
****BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Kansas City by 10
The words playoff contender and Bengals aren’t usually muttered in the same breath let alone the same sentence. Marvin Lewis has helped changed that. Not only are the Bengals much improved, they’re different. Thanks to Lewis, the Bengals finally have a direction and sense of purpose that had been missing since the ‘80s. The Bengals are a dangerous home ‘dog here. They’ve lost four of their five games by a combined 19 points. Meanwhile the Chiefs have won only two road games the past four years by more than seven points. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of incentive up by four games in the AFC West, and with a home division game against Oakland on tap. The Chiefs are certainly good. No debate there. But do they deserve to be called great at this stage? Their defense makes plays, but doesn’t scare anyone. The Chiefs are an astounding plus 18 in turnover ratio thanks to a league-high 29takeaways. Their scoring average has been inflated by seven touchdowns scored by either special teams or the defense. Dante Hall has already returned four kicks for touchdowns, and set up other scores with long returns. The Bengals have built a 6-3 ATS mark despite minimal contributions from RB Corey Dillon, who has been slowed by a lingering groin injury. Rudi Johnson, though, has filled in well for Dillon, rushing for more than 100 yards two of the last three games. The Bengals should also get good crowd support, not always a given with this team, as the game is expected to be a sellout. The Chiefs feature one of the best running backs, Priest Holmes, and maybe the top tight end, Tony Gonzalez. But their wide receivers are mediocre. We look for Lewis, a defensive guru, to come up with a solid game plan to slow down the Chiefs. CINCINNATI 27-17.
***BEST BET
New York Giants over *Philadelphia by 12
It’s amazing the Eagles are above .500. They have numerous star players injured, including Pro Bowl safety Brian Dawkins, CB Bobby Taylor, defensive lineman Hollis Thomas and Pro Bowl guard Jermane Mayberry. QB Donovan McNabb is battling thumb, ankle and back injuries, and has been ineffective most of the season. Going into Monday night, the Eagles had not only been outscored by their foes, but were being out-gained by an average of 40 yards per game. When these same two teams met four weeks ago, the Giants did everything but win the game. They had 25 first downs to Philadelphia’s nine. They led in yardage, 339-134, and controlled the clock 35:42-24:18. But thanks to a late 76-yard punt returntouchdown by Brian Westbrook, the Eagles pulled it out, 14-10. The Eagles’ wide receivers are woeful, having caught just 59 passes for 687 yards and one TD through eight games, compared to the 87 receptions, 1,124 yards and nine TD’s they put up at this stage last year. Philly’s running game isn’t anything special either, and McNabb went into the Green Bay matchup with just one big game. And that was against Atlanta. The Giants have only allowed one 100-yard rusher their last 15 games. They have huge edges at running back and wide receiver. Because of the many injuries in the secondary, the normally blitzing Eagles have had to play more conservative on defense. So Giants QB Kerry Collins should have ample time to pick up Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard, along with dangerous Tiki Barber out of the backfield. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS when favored against the Giants. They also are off a short week of practice after playing on Monday. The Giants’ history under Jim Fassel is to play well whenever things look the bleakest for them. Things are plenty bleak now for them. NY GIANTS 26-14.
POINTWISEPOINTWISE
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POINTWISE COLLEGE & PRO. FOOTBALL PROPHECY
81% RUN LAST TWO WEEKS
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
1* MISSOURI over Texas A&M
1* OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas
2* TEXAS over Texas Tech
3* UCLA over Oregon
4* NEW MEXICO over Air Force
4* LSU over Alabama
5* MIAMI-FLORIDA over Syracuse
5* GEORGIA over Auburn
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
2* TENNESSEE over Jacksonville
3* CINCINNATI over Kansas City
4* CHICAGO over St Louis
4* OAKLAND over Minnesota
5* SAN FRANCISCO over Pittsburgh
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP RATED KEY SELECTIONS
MISSOURI 52 - Texas A&M 14 - (2:00) -- Tigers were killed by the TO at Colo, losing despite 27-19 FD & 447-276 yd edges. Look for Smith & Co to shake losing monkey here. Tigs covered last HG by 35, & Ags have allowed 58, 48, & 77 pts in last 3 RGs. Chalk on an 8-0 spread run in A&M games, by 32 ppg! 14 FDs. The host is king in Duck games, covering their last 2 HGs by 15.5 ppg, but losing last 2 RGs by 46½ & 30½ ATS. Uclans recall LY's heartbreak.
OKLAHOMA STATE 54 - Kansas 14 - (2:00) -- Similar setup to above game, in which offensive machine is in off pair of Embarrassments. 'Pokes have been outscored 107-25 last 2 wks, after a 7-game winning streak. Jays are without Whittemore, & have ceded 50, 42, & 45 pts in their last 3 RGs. It all adds up. Devils. Beavs have Oregon & USC up next, so can't afford any slippage here. Led Arizona, 52-7, prior to bye, & should be able to continue overhead assault.
TENNESSEE 33 - Jacksonville 13 - (1:00) -- Jags provided us with one of our few bright spots last Sunday, beating Indy in the final 1:08, with Taylor's 152 RYs leading the way. As we said a week ago, J'Ville's record hardly reflects its statistical showings. This is the 2nd straight revenger for the Jags, but calling for a repeat of their showing vs the Colts is simply asking too much. The Titans keep on winning. Now on 19-4 SU run & 17-6 ATS skein. They led Miami 31-0, & have allowed only 2 squads to reach 100 RYs. McNair ranks #1 in the NFL, & SU winner is 17-0 ATS in this series.
SPORTS REPORTERSPORTS REPORTER
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THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
SUPER BEST BET
*INDIANAPOLIS over N.Y. JETS by 21
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*BUFFALO over HOUSTON by 14
*CINCINNATI over KANSAS CITY by 2
*NEW ORLEANS over ATLANTA by 16
MINNESOTA over *OAKLAND by 14
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
BEST BETS
*IOWA over MINNESOTA by 18
LSU over *ALABAMA by 19
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
BOSTON COLLEGE over *RUTGERS by 14
*PENN STATE over INDIANA by 10
*AKRON over OHIO by 17
HOUSTON over *ARMY by 2
*MISSOURI over TEXAS A&M by 23
COLORADO over *IOWA STATE by 17
KANSAS STATE over *NEBRASKA by 8
SUMMARY OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
SUPER BEST BET
*INDIANAPOLIS over N.Y. JETS by 21
New York is in a letdown spot after playing the Giants and the hated Raiders into overtime the last two weeks, and getting a multi-revenge win at Oakland last Sunday. The Colts got snapped back to reality off a loss, and have been waiting for this rematch game for 10 months since the Jets blasted them out of last season’s playoffs in a 41-0 rout at the Meadowlands. When these teams last met, the Colts were a banged-up team playing without running back Edgerrin James among others, and their defense had not yet matured in its first year under Tony Dungy. New York was on a roll with Chad Pennington operating a faster, better Jets offense with speedy Laveranues Coles opening up both thepassing game and the running game thanks to his deep threat. Now, however, Pennington has no go-to guy with Wayne Crebet injured and Coles replaced by the mother of all stiffs, Curtis Conway. Expect a very different result this time around with Indy possessing the superior talent, as well as the all-important home-dome advantage. The Jets will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks, and will be playing a better team motivated by
playoff revenge. INDIANAPOLIS, 34-13.
BEST BET
*IOWA over MINNESOTA by 18
The Golden Gophers have picked themselves up after consecutive dispiriting losses at home to the Michigans, but let’s not forget that two of those “Ws” were against Illinois and Indiana, who were a combined 2-17 SU and 2-15 ATS before playing each other last weekend. The Gophers’ defense imploded (82 points) in those two losses as it did a year ago vs. the Hawkeyes when it allowed 365 yards on the ground (6.5 yards per carry) in a 45-21 loss in the Metrodome that featured six Minnesota turnovers. In Iowa’s three losses, to Ohio State and Michigan State and Purdue, the problem was the inability of the offense to penetrate three solid defenses. That won’t be the case here as the Gophers’ defense is not in that league. Iowa’s is (11th in total yards allowed) and is playing home,where the Hawkeyes are yielding just 8.3 PPG and are 6-0 ATS (16-3 the last three years), Iowa pounds the ball inside with Fred Russell and takes cares of business one week after Minnesota won its ninth game on the last play of the game, paraded around the Metrodome with an axe and who knows what else afterwards. If their injured QB with the hyphenated name is still hurting, then the Gophers become easier to defend. Iowa, 35-17.
BEST BET
LSU over *ALABAMA by 19
Attention spread-trend mavens: The road team has covered each of the last seven games in this SEC rivalry tilt and we’re going on record to say it’s going to eight in a row before this day’s done. Hey, it doesn’t hurt that the visiting LSU Tigers have a reallive shot to play for the national championship this year should a few things break their way in the next couple of weeks and the major reason why Nick Saban’s club now is getting mentioned as an elite college team is a defense that’s allowed a grand total of 76 points in an 8-1 SU start. In fact, LSU’s veteran stop unit has held its last three foes to single-digit scoring (including one shutout) and the offense is starting to perk up with QB Matt Mauck healthy and with a couple of classy freshmen really giving a major hand to the ground game. In this tilt in Tuscaloosa, expect LSU’s defense to hound ‘Bama QB Brodie Croyle from the get-go while slamming shut the running lanes of Shaud Williams who enters this game as the conference’s leading rusher. On the flip side, LSU’s attack has been known to bang out some long, time-consuming drives this year (see that 21-play touchdown march against South Carolina a few weeks ago) and the once-proud Crimson Tide defense has been battered up the gut by a fair share of teams in recent weeks. LSU, 38-19.
HARMOND COLLEGE REPORT..
Total games predicted, 1992-2002: 26,517
Total right: 19,823
Total wrong: 6,537
Ties: 157
Forecasting percentage: .752
Showdown of the Week
*Ohio State
24 Purdue
19
This game may be a replay of last season’s defensive struggle, a nail-biting 10-6 win by Ohio State on another late-in-the-game TD pass. The Buckeyes’ and Boilermakers’ defenses are ranked higher than their offenses, so this one, too, should be tight.
* - Home team
Week of Nov. 15
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
*Air Force 40 Army 7
*Akron 20 Ohio 10
*Arkansas 42 New Mexico State 7
Ball State 26 *Eastern Michigan 7
*Boise State 44 Texas-El Paso 9
Boston College 21 *Rutgers 13
*Bowling Green 33 Kent 13
*California 25 Washington 15
*Clemson 34 Duke 9
Colorado 21 *Iowa State 19
*Colorado State 30 San Diego State 7
Florida 23 *South Carolina 17
*Florida State 30 North Carolina State 8
*Fresno State 31 San Jose State 14
*Georgia 26 Auburn 20
*Georgia Tech 29 North Carolina 12
Hawaii 27 *Nevada 25
Houston 21 *Army 14
Idaho 19 *Louisiana-Monroe 14
*Iowa 22 Minnesota 16
Kansas State 21 *Nebraska 20
Kentucky 26 *Vanderbilt 13
L.S.U. 24 *Alabama 12
*Louisville 24 Memphis 16
*Maryland 20 Virginia 19
*Miami 37 Syracuse 13
*Miami (Ohio) 27 Marshall 7
Michigan 35 *Northwestern 12
Michigan State 24 *Wisconsin 20
*Middle Tennessee St. 27 Louisiana-Lafayette 10
*Missouri 28 Texas A&M 7
*New Mexico 23 Air Force 14
*North Texas 37 Arkansas State 6
Northern Illinois 21 *Toledo 16
*Notre Dame 28 Brigham Young 17
*Ohio State 24 Purdue 19
*Oklahoma 60 Baylor 6
*Oklahoma State 34 Kansas 8
*Oregon State 33 Stanford 16
*Penn State 30 Indiana 10
Rice 20 *Southern Methodist 17
Southern California 38 *Arizona 8
*Southern Mississippi 26 Tulane 6
*Tennessee 34 Mississippi State 7
*Texas 28 Texas Tech 14
*Texas Christian 19 Cincinnati 12
*Tulsa 17 Louisiana Tech 16
*U.C.L.A. 29 Oregon 20
*Utah 34 Wyoming 17
*Utah State 18 Troy State 14
Virginia Tech 33 *Temple 10
*Wake Forest 21 Connecticut 9
*Washington State 31 Arizona State 13
*West Virginia 27 Pittsburgh 19
*Western Michigan 20 Central Michigan
COLLEGE TREND REPORT
Sides based on games since 1995)
Sides: November 12, 2003
Marshall at Miami-Ohio
Take Marshall
Domination by Marshall (5-0, 100% )
Sides: November 15, 2003
Air Force at New Mexico
Take New Mexico
Domination at home by New Mexico (3-0, 100% )
Arizona State at Washington State
Take Washington State
Domination by favorite (6-0, 100% )
Domination by favorite at Washington State (3-0, 100% )
Auburn at Georgia
Take Auburn
Domination by underdog at Georgia (4-0, 100% )
Domination by visiting team (6-2, 75% )
Duke at Clemson
Take Clemson
Domination by home team (7-1, 88% )
Kansas at Oklahoma State
Take Oklahoma State
Domination by Oklahoma State (4-0, 100% )
Louisiana State at Alabama
Take Louisiana State
Domination by visiting team (7-0-1, 100% )
Domination on the road by Louisiana State (3-0-1, 100% )
Michigan at Northwestern
Take Northwestern
Domination at home by Northwestern (3-0, 100% )
Domination by underdog at Northwestern (3-0, 100% )
Minnesota at Iowa
Take Iowa
Domination at home by Iowa (4-0, 100% )
Domination by Iowa (7-1, 88% )
Domination by favorite (6-2, 75% )
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Take Georgia Tech
Domination by Georgia Tech (6-2, 75% )
Northern Illinois at Toledo
Take Toledo
Domination by Toledo (4-0-1, 100% )
Ohio at Akron
Take Akron
Domination by home team (5-1, 83% )
Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Take Pittsburgh
Domination by favorite (6-2, 75% )
Purdue at Ohio State
Take Ohio State
Domination at home by Ohio State (3-0, 100% )
Domination by favorite at Ohio State (3-0, 100% )
San Diego State at Colorado State
Take San Diego State
Domination by underdog at Colorado State (3-0, 100% )
Southern Cal at Arizona
Take Southern Cal
Domination by favorite at Arizona (3-0, 100% )
Stanford at Oregon State
Take Oregon State
Domination at home by Oregon State (3-0, 100% )
Syracuse at Miami-Florida
Take Miami-Florida
Domination by Miami-Florida (6-2, 75% )
Domination by favorite (7-1, 88% )
Domination by favorite at Miami-Florida (4-0, 100% )
Texas Tech at Texas
Take Texas
Domination by favorite at Texas (4-0, 100% )
Tulane at Southern Miss
Take Southern Miss
Domination at home by Southern Miss (4-0, 100% )
Domination by favorite at Southern Miss (4-0, 100% )
Domination by home team (7-1, 88% )