CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11 FRESNO STATE over *Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 34 - *Rutgers 28
10 SYRACUSE over *Northwestern
Late Score Forecast:
SYRACUSE 28- *Northwestern 27
10 *FLORIDA over Hawaii
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA 57 - Hawaii 10
10 MICHIGAN STATE over *California
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN STATE 30 - California 24
10 KENTUCKY over *Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 23
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11 FRESNO STATE over *Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 34 - *Rutgers 28
10 SYRACUSE over *Northwestern
Late Score Forecast:
SYRACUSE 28- *Northwestern 27
10 *FLORIDA over Hawaii
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA 57 - Hawaii 10
10 MICHIGAN STATE over *California
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN STATE 30 - California 24
10 KENTUCKY over *Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 23
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
TTHHEE MMAAXX
SELECTIONS: Aug. 28-Sept. 1, 2008
College Football
Friday, August 29, 2008
@Army (+7) over Temple Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare Temple has all the characteristics the average handicapper looks for in an improving team: the coach, Al Golden is in his third season. He has brought in another good recruiting class, ranked tops in the MAC by Scout.com. And all of the 2007 starters return on both sides of the ball except for one. While Temple won just 3 games in 2007, their power rating improved over 2006 by more than a touchdown per game. And the improvement would have been greater if QB Adam DiMichele had not missed the final 4 games with an injury. The Black Knights notched 3-9 marks each of the last two years against some decent opponents. The Black Knights have won just 21 games against 1-A opponents over the last 11 seasons. In a bid to play more winnable games the administration had their schedule softened, getting out of games against Georgia Tech, Boston College and Tulsa. The administrators did their job to help the team, and now head coach Stan Brock is making a big change on the field: bringing back the option-based attack. The service academies are a natural fit for the option. The players are smart and disciplined, but lacking in size and speed. The deception of a good option attack helps level the playing field. Navy has prospered in recent years with the option, and Fisher DeBerry built an impressive legacy at Air Force with the wishbone. Army's last great season came in 1996 when they went 10-2 with an option-oriented offense headed by QB Ronnie McAda. But the option was scrapped in 2000 and the Black Knights have been awful ever since. The option should also help out a miserable defense by shortening the number of possessions it must defend. Even with Temple's big improvement in 2007, when adjusted for schedule the Black Knights were about two points per game better than the Owls. Assuming another big step up for Temple in 2008 one could justify making them a small favorite at Army. But not a touchdown favorite. And Army should improve as well in its return to the option. Army won their 2007 meeting 37-21 on this same field. That triggers a 69-39 ATS dominance-based system featuring games between two poor teams. I prefer the sizeable dog in what should be a low scoring game; the last 7 Temple games have gone under. Temple by only 1
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Utah (+3½) over @Michigan
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Michigan’s offensive is in a state of flux as Rich Rodriguez takes over. The transition to a spread offense is often difficult, and that’ll be the case at Michigan this year. For an example, look at West Virginia when Rodriguez implemented his offensive system. WVU was a bowl team with 14 returning starters but the offensive adjustment was so difficult they scored 20 or less in 8 of those 11 games. Obviously there is a higher talent level in Ann Arbor than in Morgantown, but there will still be a significant learning curve. Not only did the offense lose #1 NFL draft pick Jake Long, QB Chad Henne, gutsy RB Mike Hart, and WR's Manningham and Arrington (all drafted, by the way), but many of the guys who were supposed to take their place are gone to, with multiple offensive line defections and backup QB Mallett gone to Arkansas. The starting quarterback may be a young former walk-on and the offensive line will be inexperienced guys who were not recruited to be zone blockers. There are talented running backs in Ann Arbor (both vets and freshmen) but the Utes will be able to key on them, and there’s a chance that holes will be rare. It might be a tough start to the campaign for the Michigan offense. The D looks in better shape, but does have new schemes to deal with. They’ve struggled with spread offenses in the past (App State, Oregon, Florida all hung big numbers last season), though practicing against that style of play will help.
Utah was the most injured team in college football last September but when they started to get healthy the result was 7 straight wins down the stretch before a loss at archrival BYU. They’ve got 14 starters back and none of the departees was even deemed worthy of draft consideration by the NFL. They’ve got all their RB’s back, 13 of their 17 TD receptions, and should be a team that clicks early. Utah’s Brian Johnson was an outstanding young QB a couple of years ago, suffered an injury in 2006, played hurt much of last year, protecting a bum shoulder. Truly healthy for the first time in a couple of years, we’ll see the kind of talent he exhibited much earlier in his career. The bowls often speak to motivation as much as anything else, but the Mountain West was 4-1 in bowl play last year, with the only loss being Air Force blowing their lead against Cal when their QB was hurt. That’s a moderately good sign when we’re looking at intersectional play. Utah’s stable coaching staff and veteran, talented team are well equipped for battle against a Wolverine program in transition. Utes by 3.
Memphis (+9) over @Mississippi
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Separated by just 85 miles, these two schools have built-up somewhat of a rivalry. They usually open their seasons against each other with Ole Miss getting the best of Memphis. The Tigers rarely win, but they often keep the score very close. The last five meetings have all been decided by 10 points or less, and that puts this spread right in that range. And there are plenty of reasons to expect another close game with the winning margin being slim.
Memphis basically returns their key components from 2007, and last year’s team rebounded nicely from a dismal 2006 campaign (2-10) to win 7 games and get to a bowl. There’s no shortage of confidence heading into this year off that success, so the Tigers should be able to put together another solid year. Memphis runs a timing offense by getting to the line and then looking to the sideline for a play. This method lets them dictate tempo while not allowing the opposing defense to make substitutions and alignment changes. And in the first game of the year with conditioning not up to par, especially in the heat of the South, the Tigers rate an edge over the Rebels. Now you can argue that timing offenses are not in rhythm in early season play, which is definitely true, but we’re not laying points here so it’s less of a factor.
Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC, winning just 3 of their last 24 league games. So a change was needed in Oxford, and in steps former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt. He replaces Ed Orgeron, who despite recruiting excellent talent, could not get his kids to play. Nutt steps into a pretty good situation, and he’ll have the Rebels much improved right away. But he still has huge expectations, and that pressure is a lot to overcome out of the gate. The Rebels offense isn’t exactly potent either. Over their last 40 games, they’ve scored more than 28 points exactly once. And over that same span, Ole Miss has been favored by this many points one time in a game they won 13-7. Defensively, the Rebels will be without their best player, Greg Hardy, who is out for 2 months with a stress fracture in his right foot. Like I said earlier, Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss winning games this year. But this is a steep price considering the new coaching philosophies, the familiarity of the teams, and the unfamiliar role of the favorite. Mississippi by only 3.
@Wyoming (-10) over Ohio
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Last season Wyoming went to Athens and pulled on out of the fire with a late TD in a 34-33 win. But the Cowboys dominated that game much more than the score indicated, as they had a 28-13 first down advantage, and a 441-292 total yardage edge. Despite their 33 points the Bobcats scored only a single offensive TD in their losing effort, with the other scores being a kickoff return, an INT return, and five field goals. 7 Wyomng turnovers kept the Bobcats in that game, and it is valuable to know the level of dominance on the field that the Cowboys enjoyed.
Wyoming’s Karsten Sween tossed four interceptions in that game. Sween enters his junior season with a season and a half of starting experience under his belt, but is being pressed for the job by junior college transfer Dax Crum, who is performing better
4
in preseason practice. The two running backs that gashed Ohio U for 267 yards rushing on
5.7 yards per rush last year return, as do the entire offensive line that they ran behind. There’s little reason to expect that the Cowboys won’t again enjoy dominance on the line of scrimmage. Ohio closed the season strong offensively, scoring between 37 and 48 points in five of their last six games, yet their last four games saw yardage totals of only 430, 404, 359, and 199, as they enjoyed a 9-2 turnover edge in those contests. But much of the production behind that scoring have departed the scene for coach Frank Solich. All time leading Ohio rusher (1400+ yards last year) Kalvin McRae is gone (cut by Kansas City after a quick spring mini-camp look) as is 7.6 yards per pass attempt QB Brad Bower.
Wyoming tends to start strong and finish poorly, and are 17-11-1 against the spread under Joe Glenn in the first half of seasons. Both of these teams are making some changes to their offense, incorporating more spread offense, with the Ohio changes being more of a makeover of their offense (and thus, more likely to have a learning curve). When you look at how Wyoming dominated Ohio U on the line of scrimmage last year and see which people are back from that game, an impressive Cowboy performance seems likely against an Ohio club that has no way to replicate the 7,165 foot altitude of Laramie in practice. Wyoming by 17.
Illinois (+9) over Missouri
@St. Louis, MO
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
For the first time in a long while (possibly ever?), this year’s battle for “Bragging Rights” will be more highly anticipated on the gridiron than on the hardwood. This game is played at the true neutral site of St. Louis, and was an underrated rivalry to begin with. When you add the (suddenly high) expectations of two Top 20 teams that played on New Year’s Day this past season to the equation, it makes for one heck of an opening week matchup. The Tigers of Missouri have won 3 straight in this series, but only last year’s 40-34 barnburner was played by anyone currently on the rosters of either team.
Missouri comes into the season ranked a lofty #6 off of their best season ever. They destroyed a disinterested, interim coach-led Arkansas squad 38-7 in last year’s Cotton Bowl. Their rise to the top of the Big 12 North has been slow yet steady under Gary Pinkel, and they return a good chunk of talent from last year’s 12-win group. Chase Daniel is a Heisman candidate at QB, and WR Jeremy Maclin, who set the NCAA record for all-purpose yards by a freshman, is a threat running, receiving, and returning. The defense returns 7 starters and K Jeff Wolfert is one of the nation’s best.
There are plenty of subplots in this game. Illini QB Juice Williams, the heart and soul of the team, was knocked out of last year’s game by a late hit, and Zook, a very good motivator will remind his kids of that. Also, MU despite being #1 in the nation before their Big 12 championship loss to Oklahoma was left out of BCS play, while Illinois played USC in the Rose Bowl. However, neither team should need any more motivation here. I’m backing the Illini because they have just as much talent as Missouri from top to bottom. There are under-the-radar losses for Mizzou such as do-it-all RB Temple, 2 NFL draft choices at receiver, a 3-year starter at left tackle, and the Big 12 linemen of the year at center. Those are some key holes to fill, and I can’t fathom a 4+ point line increase from last year’s close affair. I also like Ron Zook’s teams when installed as a big underdog. The Illini beat Ohio St. in Columbus last season (+15) and also Michigan St. the previous season as a 26 point ‘dog. His tenures at both Gainesville and Champaign have been highlighted by other outright upsets and near misses as a sizable underdog. Finally, off of some unfamiliar success last season, I will be picking spots fading both of these teams when laying lumber this season. At this price, and taking into account where both teams are currently ranked, I’ll take the “hunter” over the “hunted” every time. Mizzou by only 3
USC (-19½) over @Virginia
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
An argument can be made that Southern Cal was the best team in college football last year. And that same argument can be made heading into 2008 with the Trojans not the preseason # 1 as they begin behind Georgia and Ohio St. Not sure why though as all three teams ended up at 11-2. Georgia slugged through the regular season and then had slugged through the regular season and then had the easiest opponent (Hawaii) in the BCS bowl games and routed the Bows 41-10. There was no shame in Ohio St losing to LSU in the championship game, but there was plenty of it after losing to Illinois at home as a 15-point favorite. The same Illinois team that Southern Cal whipped 49-17 as a 14-point favorite in the Rose Bowl. All that happened last year allows USC to enter 2008 with a chip on its shoulder, and they’ll look to make a
statement right away. On paper, this game is an utter mismatch. Head coach Pete Carroll usually has his team revved-up from the get-go anyway, but more so this year for the reasons mentioned above. Over the last five years, the Trojans have won their opener by a combined score of 198-54 which breaks down to 33.6-10.8 per game with an average winning margin of 22.6 points per game. And those weren’t against nobodies, rather the likes of Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. Their defense allowed 17 points or less in those games, and it should be the case again here facing a very weak Virginia offense. The Trojans have way too much speed and talent for a Virginia team who overachieved in 2007.
The Cavaliers won six games by 5 points or less which included two wins by 2 points and three wins by a single point. Virginia came out of nowhere winning 9 games after going just 5-7 in 2006. Their offense wasn’t any good and hasn’t been over the last two years scoring less than 24 points in 19 of 25 games over that time. And things are not looking any better heading into 2008. The Cavs have a lot of question marks on both lines and at the quarterback position where a starter has yet to be named. Their defense was very good last year, but they have to fall back after losing Chris Long to the NFL. The one caveat to this play is the fact that head coach Al Groh is 13-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his seven years in Charlottesville. But that alone will not prevent a blowout here. USC by 24.
LA-Lafayette (+10½) over @Southern Miss
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Sometimes it pays to look at clubs that are way out of the national spotlight, and these two teams certainly qualify. Southern Miss bizarrely fired Jeff Bower after last season. Bower had spent 29 years in Hattiesburg as a player and coach, and had led the Golden Eagles to 14 straight winning seasons. USM will never be a national power yet Bower has given his entire career to this program. New coach Larry Fedora probably sees this job as a stepping-stone to a BCS job. Fedora is an offensive guy (Oklahoma State offensive coordinator) and is installing his new system with an inexperienced quarterback (Austin Davis appears to be outperforming the more talented Martevious Young in camp). Damion Fletcher went for nearly 1600 yards on nearly 5.5 yards per carry, but Conference USA run defenses were unbelievably bad last season while defenses will be able to key on the productive junior until some solid QB play emerges.
A rash of injuries left ULL very inexperienced last season but they picked things up toward the end of the year. QB Mike Desormeaux (great name for a Ragin’ Cajun QB) is a legit dual threat, running for over 1200 yards at better than 6.1 yards per attempt (a huge number for a quarterback) and has shown signs of improving his accuracy, which he needs to do after completing 55% passes with 10 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. Defensively, their depth at the linebacker position has really stood out in preseason practices, and that’s a good thing because the line doesn’t look too strong. But we expect Southern Miss’ offense to take some time to get going this season, and the Golden Eagles might not be the squad to take advantage of ULL’s weaknesses.
ULL’s hard-earned experience will help them this fall and they have a proven quarterback, which USM obviously lacks as they install a new offense. Southern Miss is the more talented bunch, but not by such a margin that a double digit spread is justified. The Golden Eagles will take a while to adjust to their new offense this season, and the Cajun’s can rage enough to stay under this big number. USM by only 4
is there a tout out there NOT ON UL-L?
TTHHEE MMAAXX
SELECTIONS: Aug. 28-Sept. 1, 2008
College Football
Friday, August 29, 2008
@Army (+7) over Temple Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare Temple has all the characteristics the average handicapper looks for in an improving team: the coach, Al Golden is in his third season. He has brought in another good recruiting class, ranked tops in the MAC by Scout.com. And all of the 2007 starters return on both sides of the ball except for one. While Temple won just 3 games in 2007, their power rating improved over 2006 by more than a touchdown per game. And the improvement would have been greater if QB Adam DiMichele had not missed the final 4 games with an injury. The Black Knights notched 3-9 marks each of the last two years against some decent opponents. The Black Knights have won just 21 games against 1-A opponents over the last 11 seasons. In a bid to play more winnable games the administration had their schedule softened, getting out of games against Georgia Tech, Boston College and Tulsa. The administrators did their job to help the team, and now head coach Stan Brock is making a big change on the field: bringing back the option-based attack. The service academies are a natural fit for the option. The players are smart and disciplined, but lacking in size and speed. The deception of a good option attack helps level the playing field. Navy has prospered in recent years with the option, and Fisher DeBerry built an impressive legacy at Air Force with the wishbone. Army's last great season came in 1996 when they went 10-2 with an option-oriented offense headed by QB Ronnie McAda. But the option was scrapped in 2000 and the Black Knights have been awful ever since. The option should also help out a miserable defense by shortening the number of possessions it must defend. Even with Temple's big improvement in 2007, when adjusted for schedule the Black Knights were about two points per game better than the Owls. Assuming another big step up for Temple in 2008 one could justify making them a small favorite at Army. But not a touchdown favorite. And Army should improve as well in its return to the option. Army won their 2007 meeting 37-21 on this same field. That triggers a 69-39 ATS dominance-based system featuring games between two poor teams. I prefer the sizeable dog in what should be a low scoring game; the last 7 Temple games have gone under. Temple by only 1
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Utah (+3½) over @Michigan
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Michigan’s offensive is in a state of flux as Rich Rodriguez takes over. The transition to a spread offense is often difficult, and that’ll be the case at Michigan this year. For an example, look at West Virginia when Rodriguez implemented his offensive system. WVU was a bowl team with 14 returning starters but the offensive adjustment was so difficult they scored 20 or less in 8 of those 11 games. Obviously there is a higher talent level in Ann Arbor than in Morgantown, but there will still be a significant learning curve. Not only did the offense lose #1 NFL draft pick Jake Long, QB Chad Henne, gutsy RB Mike Hart, and WR's Manningham and Arrington (all drafted, by the way), but many of the guys who were supposed to take their place are gone to, with multiple offensive line defections and backup QB Mallett gone to Arkansas. The starting quarterback may be a young former walk-on and the offensive line will be inexperienced guys who were not recruited to be zone blockers. There are talented running backs in Ann Arbor (both vets and freshmen) but the Utes will be able to key on them, and there’s a chance that holes will be rare. It might be a tough start to the campaign for the Michigan offense. The D looks in better shape, but does have new schemes to deal with. They’ve struggled with spread offenses in the past (App State, Oregon, Florida all hung big numbers last season), though practicing against that style of play will help.
Utah was the most injured team in college football last September but when they started to get healthy the result was 7 straight wins down the stretch before a loss at archrival BYU. They’ve got 14 starters back and none of the departees was even deemed worthy of draft consideration by the NFL. They’ve got all their RB’s back, 13 of their 17 TD receptions, and should be a team that clicks early. Utah’s Brian Johnson was an outstanding young QB a couple of years ago, suffered an injury in 2006, played hurt much of last year, protecting a bum shoulder. Truly healthy for the first time in a couple of years, we’ll see the kind of talent he exhibited much earlier in his career. The bowls often speak to motivation as much as anything else, but the Mountain West was 4-1 in bowl play last year, with the only loss being Air Force blowing their lead against Cal when their QB was hurt. That’s a moderately good sign when we’re looking at intersectional play. Utah’s stable coaching staff and veteran, talented team are well equipped for battle against a Wolverine program in transition. Utes by 3.
Memphis (+9) over @Mississippi
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Separated by just 85 miles, these two schools have built-up somewhat of a rivalry. They usually open their seasons against each other with Ole Miss getting the best of Memphis. The Tigers rarely win, but they often keep the score very close. The last five meetings have all been decided by 10 points or less, and that puts this spread right in that range. And there are plenty of reasons to expect another close game with the winning margin being slim.
Memphis basically returns their key components from 2007, and last year’s team rebounded nicely from a dismal 2006 campaign (2-10) to win 7 games and get to a bowl. There’s no shortage of confidence heading into this year off that success, so the Tigers should be able to put together another solid year. Memphis runs a timing offense by getting to the line and then looking to the sideline for a play. This method lets them dictate tempo while not allowing the opposing defense to make substitutions and alignment changes. And in the first game of the year with conditioning not up to par, especially in the heat of the South, the Tigers rate an edge over the Rebels. Now you can argue that timing offenses are not in rhythm in early season play, which is definitely true, but we’re not laying points here so it’s less of a factor.
Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC, winning just 3 of their last 24 league games. So a change was needed in Oxford, and in steps former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt. He replaces Ed Orgeron, who despite recruiting excellent talent, could not get his kids to play. Nutt steps into a pretty good situation, and he’ll have the Rebels much improved right away. But he still has huge expectations, and that pressure is a lot to overcome out of the gate. The Rebels offense isn’t exactly potent either. Over their last 40 games, they’ve scored more than 28 points exactly once. And over that same span, Ole Miss has been favored by this many points one time in a game they won 13-7. Defensively, the Rebels will be without their best player, Greg Hardy, who is out for 2 months with a stress fracture in his right foot. Like I said earlier, Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss winning games this year. But this is a steep price considering the new coaching philosophies, the familiarity of the teams, and the unfamiliar role of the favorite. Mississippi by only 3.
@Wyoming (-10) over Ohio
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Last season Wyoming went to Athens and pulled on out of the fire with a late TD in a 34-33 win. But the Cowboys dominated that game much more than the score indicated, as they had a 28-13 first down advantage, and a 441-292 total yardage edge. Despite their 33 points the Bobcats scored only a single offensive TD in their losing effort, with the other scores being a kickoff return, an INT return, and five field goals. 7 Wyomng turnovers kept the Bobcats in that game, and it is valuable to know the level of dominance on the field that the Cowboys enjoyed.
Wyoming’s Karsten Sween tossed four interceptions in that game. Sween enters his junior season with a season and a half of starting experience under his belt, but is being pressed for the job by junior college transfer Dax Crum, who is performing better
4
in preseason practice. The two running backs that gashed Ohio U for 267 yards rushing on
5.7 yards per rush last year return, as do the entire offensive line that they ran behind. There’s little reason to expect that the Cowboys won’t again enjoy dominance on the line of scrimmage. Ohio closed the season strong offensively, scoring between 37 and 48 points in five of their last six games, yet their last four games saw yardage totals of only 430, 404, 359, and 199, as they enjoyed a 9-2 turnover edge in those contests. But much of the production behind that scoring have departed the scene for coach Frank Solich. All time leading Ohio rusher (1400+ yards last year) Kalvin McRae is gone (cut by Kansas City after a quick spring mini-camp look) as is 7.6 yards per pass attempt QB Brad Bower.
Wyoming tends to start strong and finish poorly, and are 17-11-1 against the spread under Joe Glenn in the first half of seasons. Both of these teams are making some changes to their offense, incorporating more spread offense, with the Ohio changes being more of a makeover of their offense (and thus, more likely to have a learning curve). When you look at how Wyoming dominated Ohio U on the line of scrimmage last year and see which people are back from that game, an impressive Cowboy performance seems likely against an Ohio club that has no way to replicate the 7,165 foot altitude of Laramie in practice. Wyoming by 17.
Illinois (+9) over Missouri
@St. Louis, MO
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
For the first time in a long while (possibly ever?), this year’s battle for “Bragging Rights” will be more highly anticipated on the gridiron than on the hardwood. This game is played at the true neutral site of St. Louis, and was an underrated rivalry to begin with. When you add the (suddenly high) expectations of two Top 20 teams that played on New Year’s Day this past season to the equation, it makes for one heck of an opening week matchup. The Tigers of Missouri have won 3 straight in this series, but only last year’s 40-34 barnburner was played by anyone currently on the rosters of either team.
Missouri comes into the season ranked a lofty #6 off of their best season ever. They destroyed a disinterested, interim coach-led Arkansas squad 38-7 in last year’s Cotton Bowl. Their rise to the top of the Big 12 North has been slow yet steady under Gary Pinkel, and they return a good chunk of talent from last year’s 12-win group. Chase Daniel is a Heisman candidate at QB, and WR Jeremy Maclin, who set the NCAA record for all-purpose yards by a freshman, is a threat running, receiving, and returning. The defense returns 7 starters and K Jeff Wolfert is one of the nation’s best.
There are plenty of subplots in this game. Illini QB Juice Williams, the heart and soul of the team, was knocked out of last year’s game by a late hit, and Zook, a very good motivator will remind his kids of that. Also, MU despite being #1 in the nation before their Big 12 championship loss to Oklahoma was left out of BCS play, while Illinois played USC in the Rose Bowl. However, neither team should need any more motivation here. I’m backing the Illini because they have just as much talent as Missouri from top to bottom. There are under-the-radar losses for Mizzou such as do-it-all RB Temple, 2 NFL draft choices at receiver, a 3-year starter at left tackle, and the Big 12 linemen of the year at center. Those are some key holes to fill, and I can’t fathom a 4+ point line increase from last year’s close affair. I also like Ron Zook’s teams when installed as a big underdog. The Illini beat Ohio St. in Columbus last season (+15) and also Michigan St. the previous season as a 26 point ‘dog. His tenures at both Gainesville and Champaign have been highlighted by other outright upsets and near misses as a sizable underdog. Finally, off of some unfamiliar success last season, I will be picking spots fading both of these teams when laying lumber this season. At this price, and taking into account where both teams are currently ranked, I’ll take the “hunter” over the “hunted” every time. Mizzou by only 3
USC (-19½) over @Virginia
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
An argument can be made that Southern Cal was the best team in college football last year. And that same argument can be made heading into 2008 with the Trojans not the preseason # 1 as they begin behind Georgia and Ohio St. Not sure why though as all three teams ended up at 11-2. Georgia slugged through the regular season and then had slugged through the regular season and then had the easiest opponent (Hawaii) in the BCS bowl games and routed the Bows 41-10. There was no shame in Ohio St losing to LSU in the championship game, but there was plenty of it after losing to Illinois at home as a 15-point favorite. The same Illinois team that Southern Cal whipped 49-17 as a 14-point favorite in the Rose Bowl. All that happened last year allows USC to enter 2008 with a chip on its shoulder, and they’ll look to make a
statement right away. On paper, this game is an utter mismatch. Head coach Pete Carroll usually has his team revved-up from the get-go anyway, but more so this year for the reasons mentioned above. Over the last five years, the Trojans have won their opener by a combined score of 198-54 which breaks down to 33.6-10.8 per game with an average winning margin of 22.6 points per game. And those weren’t against nobodies, rather the likes of Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. Their defense allowed 17 points or less in those games, and it should be the case again here facing a very weak Virginia offense. The Trojans have way too much speed and talent for a Virginia team who overachieved in 2007.
The Cavaliers won six games by 5 points or less which included two wins by 2 points and three wins by a single point. Virginia came out of nowhere winning 9 games after going just 5-7 in 2006. Their offense wasn’t any good and hasn’t been over the last two years scoring less than 24 points in 19 of 25 games over that time. And things are not looking any better heading into 2008. The Cavs have a lot of question marks on both lines and at the quarterback position where a starter has yet to be named. Their defense was very good last year, but they have to fall back after losing Chris Long to the NFL. The one caveat to this play is the fact that head coach Al Groh is 13-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his seven years in Charlottesville. But that alone will not prevent a blowout here. USC by 24.
LA-Lafayette (+10½) over @Southern Miss
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Sometimes it pays to look at clubs that are way out of the national spotlight, and these two teams certainly qualify. Southern Miss bizarrely fired Jeff Bower after last season. Bower had spent 29 years in Hattiesburg as a player and coach, and had led the Golden Eagles to 14 straight winning seasons. USM will never be a national power yet Bower has given his entire career to this program. New coach Larry Fedora probably sees this job as a stepping-stone to a BCS job. Fedora is an offensive guy (Oklahoma State offensive coordinator) and is installing his new system with an inexperienced quarterback (Austin Davis appears to be outperforming the more talented Martevious Young in camp). Damion Fletcher went for nearly 1600 yards on nearly 5.5 yards per carry, but Conference USA run defenses were unbelievably bad last season while defenses will be able to key on the productive junior until some solid QB play emerges.
A rash of injuries left ULL very inexperienced last season but they picked things up toward the end of the year. QB Mike Desormeaux (great name for a Ragin’ Cajun QB) is a legit dual threat, running for over 1200 yards at better than 6.1 yards per attempt (a huge number for a quarterback) and has shown signs of improving his accuracy, which he needs to do after completing 55% passes with 10 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. Defensively, their depth at the linebacker position has really stood out in preseason practices, and that’s a good thing because the line doesn’t look too strong. But we expect Southern Miss’ offense to take some time to get going this season, and the Golden Eagles might not be the squad to take advantage of ULL’s weaknesses.
ULL’s hard-earned experience will help them this fall and they have a proven quarterback, which USM obviously lacks as they install a new offense. Southern Miss is the more talented bunch, but not by such a margin that a double digit spread is justified. The Golden Eagles will take a while to adjust to their new offense this season, and the Cajun’s can rage enough to stay under this big number. USM by only 4
is there a tout out there NOT ON UL-L?
