NEWPORT Final 4 Report

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NEWPORT

NEWPORT

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Well, what a great tourney!!!!

These are my four selections for the FINAL 4

I will admit I am biased in some of my thinking, and for that I respect much disagreement in my selections. Of course I will be rooting hard for LOUISVILLE to win two more games. I will tell you 4 reasons why I think they win the National Title.

1. Athleticism

2. Defense Style

3. Rick Pitino

4. The 3 Ball kick out

The one thing that has been prevalent about the Cardinals is that their rotated 8 players are MEN. This team I believe is in the best shape of all 4, with Illinois a close second. I still think Roy Williams creates a hidden pressure for his team, and will not be surprised if the Izzo out coaches Roy, and has his team disciplined enough to beat NC. I will say I do not like the fact the Carolina has not really blown a team out yet, and possibly Mich St is that team. So I am saying laying 5 with Carolina does also deserve some merit. It is a very lovely number, especially if Mich State has problems scoring. St Louis being the location, can someone help me with other teams that have played on this court this year. I would like to research the scoring in this location. I think Louisville will pressure Illinois more than any team has thus far this year, and I like them to actually dominate this game.

Louisville against Carolina would be the Dream Matchup. And I anticipate a line of Carolina -3 to 5 as well. Again if this mathcup occurs, then you have the Roy Williams big game pressure where he has lost before. One thing will be very clear if Louisville meets Carolina, their will not be a favorite who has more heart and desire to win. Both teams will have equaling levels of emotion and struggles they have worked through to get to this point.

Louisville players have been coached in a NBA style. Meaning RISK/REWARD. But I will say, all teams in this tourney can hit the 3 Ball. But I like the way Louisville is doing with more of a deeper penetration by Garcia and O'Bannon, and then kicking it out. Also take notice Palacio has now gotten into the 3 Ball act as well. Their defense is pressured for turnovers, but they themselves turn the ball over at times. I think overall they win and Go to the Title Game

My Selections

Louisville Money Line +130 and Over 146

I have a lean on the Mich St Under 157 right now, and will reserve my game selection for later in the week. I will also say that Under first half in this MSU/NC game will be a play for me. I also think the best value in this game will be a 2nd half play.

gl NEWPORT
 
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Dubpoet

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One Rimm in with Wash ML!!!!!!!!!!
 

SHACK

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I teased Lville to 9. Hope it comes in, they are playing some terrific ball. Would of beat West Virginia by 15 if West Virginia had just shot 40% from 3 point land. Best of luck to you Newport.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

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None of the teams have played in that dome this year. You are correct that Louisville has played in St Louis, but don't forget Illinois has played in St Louis too(Backyard Brawl vs Missouri). Not sure of the distance between St Louis and Louisville, but Champaign is about 2 hours away. There were over 30,000 Illini fans there yesterday for the practices.

I love the over in the NC-MSU game. MSU can only win by speeding the game up. UNC guards do not impress me and if Felton gets in foul trouble, they are in trouble. Davis needs a 20-10 game for the Spartans to have a chance.
 
NEWPORT

NEWPORT

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Fairwarning


I agree DAVIS is the KEY to a win for MSU. Total up to 158, I just think it is high. I actually might go against both total line moves

Over Louisville 145

and Under NC first Half 75......I will tell you that the pressure on the 2nd game becomes immense when one team has already celebrated their victory and another knows they are done. I think it makes for a tight first half. I also like MSU to try and get a half court first half, with trying to put NC into foul trouble.

I know NC looks like the play at -5, and very well could be. I think I hedge both sides in parlays today. I need to some NBA winners to add to the mix.

gl NEWPORT
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

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Newport - respect your opinion. Living in Mich (and I am far from being a MSU fan), the only low scoring games they have played was when they let the other team do it. I do not see UNC slowing it down at all, and MSU has a spotty at best half-court game. They even pushed up the tempo vs Illinois. The only chance is controlling the boards and run. Also what works for the over is UNC plays little defense, and MSU being a top-5 FT shooting team. I'm not big on overs in a dome, but neither team will run the shotclock down.

Played these at Olympic:

Mich St over 76.5
Louisville over 71.5
 

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