Zogby Electoral College Map Update! Zogby Latest: Game On! McCain Surges to 226 Electoral College Votes, Obama Drops to 234 in New Tally
Polls in 11 battleground states show Obama retains narrow lead as 78 Electoral College votes still a toss-up
UTICA, New York—An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.
The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com.
In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.
See the Zogby map online to get Pollster John Zogby's state-by-state commentary on this latest polling.
In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two states—Pennsylvania and New Mexico – both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.
Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to have—at least for now—captured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCain’s gains total 54 Electoral College votes. Based on a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends, the Zogby map is also moving four other states – Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, and North Dakota from toss-ups into the McCain column.
All of McCain’s gains come from moving toss-up states into his column—no states moved directly from Obama to McCain.
In the race for the White House, the winner must capture states worth at least 270 Electoral College votes, a majority of the total of 538 votes available.
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—New Hampshire
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—New Mexico
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Nevada
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Ohio
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace - Pennsylvania
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Virginia
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Polls in 11 battleground states show Obama retains narrow lead as 78 Electoral College votes still a toss-up
UTICA, New York—An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.
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The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com.
In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.
See the Zogby map online to get Pollster John Zogby's state-by-state commentary on this latest polling.
In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two states—Pennsylvania and New Mexico – both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.
Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to have—at least for now—captured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCain’s gains total 54 Electoral College votes. Based on a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends, the Zogby map is also moving four other states – Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, and North Dakota from toss-ups into the McCain column.
All of McCain’s gains come from moving toss-up states into his column—no states moved directly from Obama to McCain.
In the race for the White House, the winner must capture states worth at least 270 Electoral College votes, a majority of the total of 538 votes available.
The Horserace Now in the Eleven Battleground States:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Colorado
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Florida
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Michigan
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Missouri
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
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[/SIZE]<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—North Carolina<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Colorado
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
47.5%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
45.5%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
7.0%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Florida
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
52.1
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
41.8
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
6.1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Michigan
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
43.3%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
49.0%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
7.7%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Missouri
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
48.5%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
42.4%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
9.1%
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
46.6%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
48.1%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
5.3%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—New Hampshire
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
49.1%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
42.8%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
8.1%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—New Mexico
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
44.1%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
45.6%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
10.3%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Nevada
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
50.1%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
42.5%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
7.4%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Ohio
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9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
49.8%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
43.9%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
6.3%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace - Pennsylvania
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
49.1%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
44.3%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
6.6%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Horserace—Virginia
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
9-9/12
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
50.3%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
43.8%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=217>Not Sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=78>
5.9%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The 11 interactive online surveys included samples of likely voters ranging in size from 433 respondents in New Hampshire, where the margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points, to Florida, where 995 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The surveys were conducted Sept. 9-12, 2008.
