New Polls Show Bush Fading

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Latest Bush vs Kerry poll - Bush fading
(AP)

Several recent polls show that Bush's lead in the election race has narrowed dramatically and that the election is now too close to call

George W. Bush's approval rating, in a poll amongst Uncommitted Voters, fell from 56 percent to 44 percent.

Voters who haven't decided on who to support in November, are perhaps the key to victory for Bush or Kerry. The "bounce" that Bush received after the convention, at least as far as these voters are concerned, seems to have evaporated already.

However, Bush is still attracting stronger ratings on his "war on terror" and of registered voters recently polled, 54 percent said the president would do a better job than Kerry at fighting terrorism, compared to 36 percent for Kerry.

In the latest poll from Newsweek, Bush's lead over Kerry had reduced to just six percentage points. But in a Time magazine poll they had the president leading by 11 points.

Most of the polls show such large differences that this "science" should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. Clearly some of the polls are not even close to being accurate and we can only guess which ones are nearest to the truth.

However, the one thing that does seem to be consistent is the support that Bush has on the handling of the "war on terror" and despite less than successful policies at home and a record deficit, potential voters seem to consider this the deciding factor in selecting a president. Without the terrorist "threat", which the Bush campaign are making a priority, Kerry would have all but won the election by now.

As we have seen in other countries and with other politicians, a war and a few terrorists (plus a sprinkling of patriotism) is often enough to swing things their way, no matter how bad the rest of their work is. We have seen this in Britain and we are seeing it in Russia now. Without the tragedy of 9/11, Bush would have been looking at the "situations vacant" pages long ago!
 
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6 points is HUGE at this time ,I think 11% were undecided thats HUGE also
 

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Bush wins easy by 8% and 75+ electorial college votes, it's over. Without the liberal media machine Bush would win by 15%. The CBS types have ruined any chance that a last minute fradulent story could actually make it close. No one will trust the left wing media in late October. With all the internet sites now I doubt any of the big liberal stations will try a fraud story now, there's too many eyes on them now. In 2008 the liberals are in big trouble as they can no longer stop the free flow of information, liberalism may be dead in America.:drink:
 

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I personally think election day is going to be very interesting.I expect a long night.
 

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EverFresh said:
Latest Bush vs Kerry poll - Bush fading
(AP)

Several recent polls show that Bush's lead in the election race has narrowed dramatically and that the election is now too close to call

George W. Bush's approval rating, in a poll amongst Uncommitted Voters, fell from 56 percent to 44 percent.

Voters who haven't decided on who to support in November, are perhaps the key to victory for Bush or Kerry. The "bounce" that Bush received after the convention, at least as far as these voters are concerned, seems to have evaporated already.

However, Bush is still attracting stronger ratings on his "war on terror" and of registered voters recently polled, 54 percent said the president would do a better job than Kerry at fighting terrorism, compared to 36 percent for Kerry.

In the latest poll from Newsweek, Bush's lead over Kerry had reduced to just six percentage points. But in a Time magazine poll they had the president leading by 11 points.

Most of the polls show such large differences that this "science" should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. Clearly some of the polls are not even close to being accurate and we can only guess which ones are nearest to the truth.

However, the one thing that does seem to be consistent is the support that Bush has on the handling of the "war on terror" and despite less than successful policies at home and a record deficit, potential voters seem to consider this the deciding factor in selecting a president. Without the terrorist "threat", which the Bush campaign are making a priority, Kerry would have all but won the election by now.

As we have seen in other countries and with other politicians, a war and a few terrorists (plus a sprinkling of patriotism) is often enough to swing things their way, no matter how bad the rest of their work is. We have seen this in Britain and we are seeing it in Russia now. Without the tragedy of 9/11, Bush would have been looking at the "situations vacant" pages long ago!
WOW! A DEAD HEAT! Back up the truck, sell the farm, (insert your own metaphor here), put it all on Kerry at +200. Oh, wait a minute, you don't think Kerry will win, never mind!
 

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Bill I actually see some value with Kerry +200.Don't really think he is gonna win at this point but at that price....... Where do you see that #?
 

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the debates will be the show boat lay up over the goal post en route to the blow out win
 

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Judge Wapner said:
Bill I actually see some value with Kerry +200.Don't really think he is gonna win at this point but at that price....... Where do you see that #?
Pinny has Kerry +194 right now, max$5000, enjoy!
 

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Judge, if you want more than 5K, Carib has Kerry +195. Personally, I maxed out on Bush at about even money, then bought back some Kerry at +150 (BIG MISTAKE on my part, should have waited to close that scalp, oh well).
 

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Judge, puting ideology aside for a minute (afterall, this is a gambling site), if you haven't pulled the trigger on Kerry, you can now get him at +214. But an even better bet is to take John Thune-101 (Pinny) over Tom Dashel to win the senate seat in S. Dakota. IMO, Kerry will be something like +250 after the debates, but the Thune money is going to put that one out of reach pretty soon!
Judge Wapner said:
Bill,thanks for info.Put it this way my man,ain't betting the rent money on it.
 

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JP,lol. What I expect is for line to drop closer to election and then I wiil just take the middle.Who knows?
 

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Several recent polls show that Bush's lead in the election race has narrowed dramatically and that the election is now too close to call

Was CBS the source of this article?

Bush is not fading in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

This link tracks multiple polls, all of which show Bush maintaining a healthy 5-6% lead.
 

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Bush's Polls Are Much Worse than the Media Pretends
Steve Cobble


The Conventional Wisdom for the past couple of weeks is that Resident-Select Bush has gotten a bump in the polls, and the media sent him off on his "working vacation" with lots of puff pieces

As always with the Shrub, however, there were some interesting, and largely overlooked items in those polls.

For instance, the same 7/30 ABC/Washington Post poll that gave Bush a 59% job approval rating, also showed him with a 38% disapproval rating--a 15% gain in disapproval since his 55-23% ratings in late February. 37% answered no to the question of whether Bush told the truth during his campaign about the programs and policies he would follow after becoming president.

Even more interesting, the ABC/Post poll asked those who had voted last November who they would vote for today (among the same candidates). Despite all the hoopla, and all the puff pieces, Bush was below 50% (still!), and barely ahead of Gore. Bush--48%; Gore--46%; Nader--2%; Buchanan--0%.

These numbers were basically confirmed by a new Bloomberg poll that had Bush slightly ahead of Gore, 46-43%. (Maybe Gore's "silent strategy" is not as foolish as all the pundits claim...)

Then there is the 7/29 Zogby poll, which the White House hated because it showed Bush with a net negative job approval rating! (And here it might be appropriate to remind everyone that the Zogby poll was one of the few to predict Bush losing on election day.)

Zogby found 17% of likely voters giving Bush an "excellent" job rating, with another 30% rating it "good", for a total positive of 47%. On the other hand, Zogby found that 34% of likely voters gave Bush only a "fair" job approval rating, while another 17% gave him a "poor" rating, for a total negative rating of 51%.

The partisan breakdown of positive/negative job approval ratings shows deep splits: Republicans back Bush by 80-17%, but Independents give him a net negative of 10% (44-54%), and Democrats flunk him 20-79%. Men pass Bush (barely) by 51-47%, while women fail him by 45-55%. Whites also barely pass him, by 51-45%, while African Americans flunk Bush by a resounding 15-85%.

USA Today/CNN/Gallup ran a poll earlier in July that gave Bush a 57-35% job approval rating. What was not reported, however, were the answers they got to a couple of questions they asked, which readers of www.democrats.com will find interesting:
  • 48% of the respondents agreed that Bush had won "fair and square"; but 50% (fully half) did not! 33% of those polled felt that Bush had won "on a technicality", and 17% (1 out of every 6 Americans) were willing to tell pollsters that they believe that Bush "stole the election"!
  • 73% told the pollsters that they accept Bush as a legitimate president; 15% said that they do not accept him as legitimate, but might in the future; meanwhile, 11% responded that they will never accept Bush as legitimate!

A 7/28 Harris poll found that the Republican Congress has dropped 7% since May. The Harris poll also had horrible numbers for Dick Cheney (and here I should note that other polls do not seem to have uncovered the same free-fall), a drop of 10% in positive approval, and a gain of 14% in negatives, in one month.

The Harris numbers were that 4% gave Cheney an "excellent" rating, with another 35% rating him "good", for only a 39% positive rating. Meanwhile, 39% rated Cheney "only fair", and 12% rated him "poor", for a negative rating of 51%--for a net negative score of -12%.

The Democracy Corps poll of Carville/Greenberg/Shrum published an analysis by Karl Agne of the ABC/Post poll, concluding that "Bush is seen as not only out of step with the majority of Americans but aligned with those whose interests are contrary to those of most Americans."

Democracy Corps cites the following evidence from the ABC/Post poll (and remember, that was a poll that gave Bush one of his highest recent ratings):
  • 54% say he does not "understand the problems of people like you."
  • 53% say he is "not concentrating on things that are important to you personally."
  • by 52-38%, Americans said Democrats in Congress are more open to the ideas of moderates than Bush is.
  • more than 3/4 of Americans (76%) believe wealthy people have too much influence on the Bush White House, 2/3 (67%) say large corporations have too much influence, and 64% say oil and gas companies have too much influence.

Finally, here's a footnote from the Democracy Corps analysis that readers of www.democrats.com will identify with: "Due to consistently one-sided deviation from all other publicly released non-partisan polls, we have dropped all 2001 FOX News polls from our trend analysis."
 

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If you really believe that drivel, put your money where your mouth is and load up on Kerry at +200. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, just more "whistling past the graveyard" babbling from the Libs!
 

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Bill,took the +217.If debates go Bush's way am probably screwed.Still thinking the line drops as we get closer.And if it does I'll take the middle. In this case I agree,has nothing to do with idealogy,just looking to make a little cash.
 

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But The Liberals Will Keep Trying Stupid Tactics Like Those Forged Guard Documents. Weak Stuff.
 

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