NEW NFL THEORY PLAY

dawgpound · Jul 8, 2004

Played this last couple of years with almost 100% success. Take the home dawg when.......

The visitor is coming from different time zone

AND

The visitor plays home games on different type of turf.

Hint.. Hint... 49's to start off the year

wannawin · Jul 9, 2004

about how many plays are there per season?

dawgpound · Jul 9, 2004

Average is about 1.5 games per week.

bblight · Jul 9, 2004

Just bringing this up for consideration; A key Atlanta trend is their 9-4-2 record on road grass.

Good luck!

dawgpound · Jul 10, 2004

If someone knows how or has the time.....they should look at the win loss record for this play.....You'll be amazed!

wannawin · Jul 10, 2004

While it'll take serious homework to get exact, I looked in a round about way and see 60% with only a few plays per year.

I'll dig deeper when I get some time to make sure I'm doing it right.

BigLou+ · Jul 10, 2004

In 2003, home dogs vs. teams from different time zones who play on a different surface went 9-6 SU & 11-3-1 ATS.

Big Lou

dawgpound · Jul 10, 2004

Big Lou.....do you mind sharing where you were able to find past lines and finals....11-3-1 is very nice value in this business...I would like to get the numbers for the last five years to really get a better understanding of that value.

Thanks

captain#5 · Jul 10, 2004

Thanks Lou(d) for the stats.

BigLou+ · Jul 11, 2004

GO DAWGS,

I will run the numbers for you in the next day or so.

Big Lou

BigLou+ · Jul 12, 2004

Went back and rechecked my figures. Here are the numbers since the 2000 season.

2000: 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS.
2001: 9-17 SU & 16-10 ATS.
2002: 11-11 SU & 15-7 ATS.
2003: 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS.

Overall past four seasons:

36-43 SU & 50-28-1 ATS. Not quite 100% Dawg but solid nonetheless.

Big Lou

BigLou+ · Jul 12, 2004

Updated numbers:

1997: 8-12 SU & 11-9 ATS.
1998: 8-11 SU & 11-5-3 ATS.
1999: 8-5 SU & 10-3 ATS.
2000: 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS.
2001: 9-17 SU & 16-10 ATS.
2002: 11-11 SU & 15-7 ATS.
2003: 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS.

Overall past seven seasons:

60-71 SU & 82-45-4 ATS.

Big Lou

dawgpound · Jul 12, 2004

Lou,
Thanks for your research. I hope I have managed to contribute a new angle that will benefit someone around here. I know that I have benefited from you guys advice before. The season is right around the corner......
Good Luck to you all!

GO DAWGS!

KMAN · Jul 14, 2004

GO DAWGS - Sounds like a good system to keep in mind this season. Good Luck.

KMAN

Moon88 · Jul 15, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
Updated numbers:

1997: 8-12 SU & 11-9 ATS.
1998: 8-11 SU & 11-5-3 ATS.
1999: 8-5 SU & 10-3 ATS.
2000: 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS.
2001: 9-17 SU & 16-10 ATS.
2002: 11-11 SU & 15-7 ATS.
2003: 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS.

Overall past seven seasons:

60-71 SU & 82-45-4 ATS.

Big Lou<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Lou are the results including visiting teams that play home games on different type of turf? THANKS

BigLou+ · Jul 15, 2004

Moon88,

These numbers are based on home dogs on grass vs. artificial surface road favorites or artificial home dogs vs. grass road favorites, with all road favorites coming from a different time zone.

Big Lou

Moon88 · Jul 15, 2004

Thanks Lou

BigLou+ · Jul 15, 2004

No problemo.

RobFunk · Aug 1, 2004

this is really great stuff. . thanks guys.. .makes sense. dif time zone, and field doesnt remind them of home. lots of adjusting to have to do in less than 1 week's time. I wonder if there is some other aspect about the home team that might increase the win % some more without losing too many total plays played?!