[h=1]New England is new No. 1 in Vegas Rankings[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- After the first week of the NFL season, the New England Patriotshave taken over the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
It's almost by default, as our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers -- Erin Rynning, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- previously had the Seattle Seahawks as the top-rated team, but they lost 34-31 to the St. Louis Rams in overtime, and the other top teams also lost (Indianapolis Coltsand Philadelphia Eagles) or barely covered in their Week 1 victories (Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos).
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about 4 points).
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
After the rankings, we'll list any potential plays we see in Week 2.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the Thursday night betting preview and my Tuley's Take column on Friday.)
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[h=2]NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]1. New England Patriots (Power rating: 27)
New England was favored by 7 over Pittsburgh and won 28-21, but the defending champs were in control the whole game and looked like they were going to cover until the Steelers snuck in the back door, so they only earned an half-point increase from our panel. Still, that was enough to take over the top spot.
Previous rating: 26.5
2. (tie) Seattle Seahawks (26)
The Seahawks continue to have problems on the road, especially in St. Louis, as they lost there for the second straight year. Our panel dropped them a full point.
Previous rating: 27
2. (tie) Green Bay Packers (26)
Green Bay was favored by 6.5 to 7 points and won by 8, so the Packers pretty much did what was expected and we kept their power rating the same. James Jones filled the role of Jordy Nelson very well.
Previous rating: 26
2. (tie) Denver Broncos (26)
The preseason predictions that the Broncos would actually be stronger on defense and that the offense would be more run-oriented seemed to be proved true in the opener. The Broncos didn't score an offensive touchdown, and the defense shut down Baltimore and got the go-ahead pick-six from Aqib Talib. Still, Denver was favored by 4.5 points and won by 6, so we kept its rating the same.
Previous rating: 26
5. Dallas Cowboys (24.5)
The Cowboys pulled out an improbable comeback on Sunday night thanks to the Giants' clock mismanagement, but they still never came close to covering the 7-point spread and our panel downgraded them a full point for a subpar performance.
Previous rating: 23.5
6. (tie) Indianapolis Colts (24)
The Colts were on the road, but plenty of road favorites did just fine in Week 1, so we downgraded them by a full point for their 27-14 loss at Buffalo. They were outplayed on both sides of the ball.
Previous rating: 25
6. (tie) Philadelphia Eagles (24)
As poorly as the offense played in the first half, the Eagles almost beat the Falcons on Monday night. However, they still wouldn't have covered as 3-point road faves if Cody Parkey had made his FG attempt (and there's no guarantee their defense would have stopped Atlanta from a winning drive anyway).
Previous rating: 23
8. Miami Dolphins (23.5)
Our panel was split on what to do with the Dolphins. They did end up covering as 4-point favorites at Washington, but they had a hard time putting away the lowly Redskins, so we ended up keeping Miami's rating the same.
Previous rating: 23.5
9. (tie) Buffalo Bills (22.5)
The Bills had one of the most impressive Week 1 performances, as the defense shut down the (supposedly) powerful Colts offense and the offense showed a balanced attack. That earned them a full-point increase.
Previous rating: 21.5
9. (tie) Cincinnati Bengals (22.5)
The Bengals dominated from start to finish in their 33-13 win at Oakland, but it was only the Raiders and Derek Carr was knocked out of the game early. For now, we kept their rating the same.
Previous rating: 22.5
9. (tie) Kansas City Chiefs (22.5)
The Chiefs took over early at Houston, with the defense picking off Brian Hoyerand Alex Smith hitting TE Travis Kelce for two TDs, but they let the Texans stick around. Our panel ended up upgrading them half a point, but we didn't want to overdo it.
Previous rating: 22
9. (tie) Baltimore Ravens (22.5)
The Ravens had every opportunity to pull off the upset in Denver. The defense looked good, but Baltimore got bad news when Terrell Suggs was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. That, along with the offense not scoring a TD, has us dropping the Ravens a full point.
Previous rating: 23.5
13. (tie) Detroit Lions (22)
The Lions jumped out to a 21-10 halftime lead at San Diego and looked like they were on the way to an upset, but everything changed in the second half. They not only didn't win, but also didn't cover as a 3.5-point road dog in a 33-28 loss. We dropped them half a point.
Previous rating: 21.5
13. (tie) Arizona Cardinals (22)
The Cardinals' defense held the Saints in check for the most part, and the offense looked potent again with Carson Palmer at the controls, so we upgraded them by half a point. There's some concern now that RB Andre Ellington's is out with a PCL injury, but the Cards should be able to replace him with a combination ofChris Johnson and David Johnson, who scored a TD in his rookie debut.
Previous rating: 21.5
15. (tie) Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5)
While the Pittsburgh pass defense was lacking, it was facing New England and, in the end, the Steelers were 7-point road underdogs and pushed 28-21 in the season opener, so we kept their rating the same. DeAngelo Williams filled in just fine for suspended Le'Veon Bell, and Ben Roethlisberger looks like he'll put up big numbers.
Previous rating: 21.5
15. (tie) St. Louis Rams (21.5)
The Rams almost blew out the Seahawks, and then they almost blew the game. They pulled the biggest upset of Week 1, but it was an uneven performance, so we only increased their power rating half a point (we've seen them pull upsets like this before only to play down to lesser competition).
Previous rating: 21
17. Atlanta Falcons (21)
We knew Matt Ryan and Julio Jones would be productive, but the defense was the big surprise. It seemed to wear down in the second half, but the team did enough to hold off the Eagles and earned a full point increase from our panel.
Previous rating: 20
18. (tie) New Orleans Saints (20.5)
The Saints stuck around against the Cardinals, but for the most part they were outplayed and ended up losing 31-19 as 2.5-point road underdogs, so we downgraded them a full point.
Previous rating: 21.5
18. (tie) San Diego Chargers (20.5)
San Diego started slow but rallied to win and cover as 3.5-point home faves over Detroit. Melvin Gordon looks like the real deal, and Philip Rivers was unstoppable once he got going.
Previous rating: 20
20. Houston Texans (20)
The Texans were mostly outplayed by the Chiefs, though they did rally to only lose 27-20, but we downgraded them 1.5 points as they already have a QB controversy with Brian Hoyer struggling in his Houston debut and Ryan Mallettleading the comeback.
Previous rating: 21.5
21. Minnesota Vikings (19.5)
After an offseason of incredible hype, the Vikings put up a stinker in their season opener on Monday night in San Francisco. Teddy Bridgewater missed several open receivers and Adrian Peterson never got going. We dropped them a full point.
Previous rating: 20.5
22. (tie) Carolina Panthers (19)
The Panthers beat the Jaguars 20-9, but it wasn't that dominating of a performance. A bad pick-six by Blake Bortles helped them pull away, but they could be without linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion).
Previous rating: 19
22. (tie) New York Giants (19)
It remains to be seen how the Giants react to their colossal collapse on Sunday night in Dallas. They should have won, and they still ended up covering as 7-point dogs, but our panel ended up downgrading them half a point.
Previous rating: 19.5
22. (tie) New York Jets (19)
The Jets beat down the Browns 31-10 as 3.5-point home favorites. A result like that would usually have a team moving up in the rankings, but it was against the Browns and Johnny Manziel after Josh McCown left with a concussion. We're keeping their rating the same until we see more.
Previous rating: 19
22. (tie) San Francisco 49ers (19)
For a team that a lot of people left for dead, the 49ers looked surprisingly good on Monday night in shutting down the Minnesota offense and riding RB Carlos Hyde to a 20-3 victory as 2.5-point home dogs to earn a 1-point increase in their power rating.
Previous rating: 18
26. Chicago Bears (16.5)
The Bears had their chances to at least cover in their 31-23 loss to the Packers as 6.5-point home dogs, but an interception by Jay Cutler sealed their fate.
Previous rating: 17
27. (tie) Oakland Raiders (16)
Our panel was split on what to do with the Raiders' power rating. Their 33-13 loss to the Bengals would usually downgrade a team, but Oakland at least got good some news: QB Derek Carr's hand injury is just a bruise and he could be back this week.
Previous rating: 16
27. (tie) Washington Redskins (16)
The Redskins lost 17-10 and failed to cover as 4-point home underdogs, but they were more competitive than expected. The defense held its own against Miami. The offense showed signs of life, but it will miss DeSean Jackson.
Previous rating: 16
29. (tie) Cleveland Browns (15.5)
McCown left the Browns 31-10 loss to the New York Jets with a concussion, but it was the rest of the offense that looked woozy with Manziel at the helm. Manziel threw his first career TD, but otherwise looked lost out there. We downgraded them a full point.
Previous rating: 16.5
29. (tie) Tennessee Titans (15.5)
It's hard not to overreact to Marcus Mariota's debut, as he was accurate with his throws (and his reads) in leading the Titans to a 42-14 rout of the Buccaneers. The defense even looked better. Even though the win was against the Bucs, we upgraded the Titans by 1.5 points.
Previous rating: 14
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (15)
The Jaguars lost, as expected, 20-9, to Carolina as 3-point home dogs, but they were competitive until Bortles threw a bad pick-six in the second half.
Previous rating: 15
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13)
Jameis Winston threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass and it hardly ever got better for the offense -- and the defense didn't look very good, either -- as the Bucs were routed 42-14 by the Titans. It's hard to imagine the Bucs being any worse than last year, but we downgraded them by 1.5 points.
Previous rating: 14.5
[h=2]Week 2 value plays[/h]Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
Vegas consensus line: Chiefs -3
Vegas Ranks: Broncos -3.5 (26-22.5)
Our panel's raw numbers have the Broncos as 3.5 points better than the Chiefs. Even if giving KC a field goal or 3.5 points for home field, that puts the line at around pick-'em, so we see value in Denver getting a field goal.
The play: Broncos +3.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Vegas consensus line: Cardinals -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Cardinals -6 (22.5-16.5)
We have the Cardinals as six points better than the Bears, and even with Chicago's home-field advantage, this line should still be over a field goal. There appears to be value laying less than 3 with Arizona.
The play: Cardinals -2.5 (some books are at 2).
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ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- After the first week of the NFL season, the New England Patriotshave taken over the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
It's almost by default, as our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers -- Erin Rynning, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- previously had the Seattle Seahawks as the top-rated team, but they lost 34-31 to the St. Louis Rams in overtime, and the other top teams also lost (Indianapolis Coltsand Philadelphia Eagles) or barely covered in their Week 1 victories (Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos).
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about 4 points).
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
After the rankings, we'll list any potential plays we see in Week 2.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the Thursday night betting preview and my Tuley's Take column on Friday.)
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[h=2]NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]1. New England Patriots (Power rating: 27)
New England was favored by 7 over Pittsburgh and won 28-21, but the defending champs were in control the whole game and looked like they were going to cover until the Steelers snuck in the back door, so they only earned an half-point increase from our panel. Still, that was enough to take over the top spot.
Previous rating: 26.5
2. (tie) Seattle Seahawks (26)
The Seahawks continue to have problems on the road, especially in St. Louis, as they lost there for the second straight year. Our panel dropped them a full point.
Previous rating: 27
2. (tie) Green Bay Packers (26)
Green Bay was favored by 6.5 to 7 points and won by 8, so the Packers pretty much did what was expected and we kept their power rating the same. James Jones filled the role of Jordy Nelson very well.
Previous rating: 26
2. (tie) Denver Broncos (26)
The preseason predictions that the Broncos would actually be stronger on defense and that the offense would be more run-oriented seemed to be proved true in the opener. The Broncos didn't score an offensive touchdown, and the defense shut down Baltimore and got the go-ahead pick-six from Aqib Talib. Still, Denver was favored by 4.5 points and won by 6, so we kept its rating the same.
Previous rating: 26
5. Dallas Cowboys (24.5)
The Cowboys pulled out an improbable comeback on Sunday night thanks to the Giants' clock mismanagement, but they still never came close to covering the 7-point spread and our panel downgraded them a full point for a subpar performance.
Previous rating: 23.5
6. (tie) Indianapolis Colts (24)
The Colts were on the road, but plenty of road favorites did just fine in Week 1, so we downgraded them by a full point for their 27-14 loss at Buffalo. They were outplayed on both sides of the ball.
Previous rating: 25
6. (tie) Philadelphia Eagles (24)
As poorly as the offense played in the first half, the Eagles almost beat the Falcons on Monday night. However, they still wouldn't have covered as 3-point road faves if Cody Parkey had made his FG attempt (and there's no guarantee their defense would have stopped Atlanta from a winning drive anyway).
Previous rating: 23
8. Miami Dolphins (23.5)
Our panel was split on what to do with the Dolphins. They did end up covering as 4-point favorites at Washington, but they had a hard time putting away the lowly Redskins, so we ended up keeping Miami's rating the same.
Previous rating: 23.5
9. (tie) Buffalo Bills (22.5)
The Bills had one of the most impressive Week 1 performances, as the defense shut down the (supposedly) powerful Colts offense and the offense showed a balanced attack. That earned them a full-point increase.
Previous rating: 21.5
9. (tie) Cincinnati Bengals (22.5)
The Bengals dominated from start to finish in their 33-13 win at Oakland, but it was only the Raiders and Derek Carr was knocked out of the game early. For now, we kept their rating the same.
Previous rating: 22.5
9. (tie) Kansas City Chiefs (22.5)
The Chiefs took over early at Houston, with the defense picking off Brian Hoyerand Alex Smith hitting TE Travis Kelce for two TDs, but they let the Texans stick around. Our panel ended up upgrading them half a point, but we didn't want to overdo it.
Previous rating: 22
9. (tie) Baltimore Ravens (22.5)
The Ravens had every opportunity to pull off the upset in Denver. The defense looked good, but Baltimore got bad news when Terrell Suggs was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. That, along with the offense not scoring a TD, has us dropping the Ravens a full point.
Previous rating: 23.5
13. (tie) Detroit Lions (22)
The Lions jumped out to a 21-10 halftime lead at San Diego and looked like they were on the way to an upset, but everything changed in the second half. They not only didn't win, but also didn't cover as a 3.5-point road dog in a 33-28 loss. We dropped them half a point.
Previous rating: 21.5
13. (tie) Arizona Cardinals (22)
The Cardinals' defense held the Saints in check for the most part, and the offense looked potent again with Carson Palmer at the controls, so we upgraded them by half a point. There's some concern now that RB Andre Ellington's is out with a PCL injury, but the Cards should be able to replace him with a combination ofChris Johnson and David Johnson, who scored a TD in his rookie debut.
Previous rating: 21.5
15. (tie) Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5)
While the Pittsburgh pass defense was lacking, it was facing New England and, in the end, the Steelers were 7-point road underdogs and pushed 28-21 in the season opener, so we kept their rating the same. DeAngelo Williams filled in just fine for suspended Le'Veon Bell, and Ben Roethlisberger looks like he'll put up big numbers.
Previous rating: 21.5
15. (tie) St. Louis Rams (21.5)
The Rams almost blew out the Seahawks, and then they almost blew the game. They pulled the biggest upset of Week 1, but it was an uneven performance, so we only increased their power rating half a point (we've seen them pull upsets like this before only to play down to lesser competition).
Previous rating: 21
17. Atlanta Falcons (21)
We knew Matt Ryan and Julio Jones would be productive, but the defense was the big surprise. It seemed to wear down in the second half, but the team did enough to hold off the Eagles and earned a full point increase from our panel.
Previous rating: 20
18. (tie) New Orleans Saints (20.5)
The Saints stuck around against the Cardinals, but for the most part they were outplayed and ended up losing 31-19 as 2.5-point road underdogs, so we downgraded them a full point.
Previous rating: 21.5
18. (tie) San Diego Chargers (20.5)
San Diego started slow but rallied to win and cover as 3.5-point home faves over Detroit. Melvin Gordon looks like the real deal, and Philip Rivers was unstoppable once he got going.
Previous rating: 20
20. Houston Texans (20)
The Texans were mostly outplayed by the Chiefs, though they did rally to only lose 27-20, but we downgraded them 1.5 points as they already have a QB controversy with Brian Hoyer struggling in his Houston debut and Ryan Mallettleading the comeback.
Previous rating: 21.5
21. Minnesota Vikings (19.5)
After an offseason of incredible hype, the Vikings put up a stinker in their season opener on Monday night in San Francisco. Teddy Bridgewater missed several open receivers and Adrian Peterson never got going. We dropped them a full point.
Previous rating: 20.5
22. (tie) Carolina Panthers (19)
The Panthers beat the Jaguars 20-9, but it wasn't that dominating of a performance. A bad pick-six by Blake Bortles helped them pull away, but they could be without linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion).
Previous rating: 19
22. (tie) New York Giants (19)
It remains to be seen how the Giants react to their colossal collapse on Sunday night in Dallas. They should have won, and they still ended up covering as 7-point dogs, but our panel ended up downgrading them half a point.
Previous rating: 19.5
22. (tie) New York Jets (19)
The Jets beat down the Browns 31-10 as 3.5-point home favorites. A result like that would usually have a team moving up in the rankings, but it was against the Browns and Johnny Manziel after Josh McCown left with a concussion. We're keeping their rating the same until we see more.
Previous rating: 19
22. (tie) San Francisco 49ers (19)
For a team that a lot of people left for dead, the 49ers looked surprisingly good on Monday night in shutting down the Minnesota offense and riding RB Carlos Hyde to a 20-3 victory as 2.5-point home dogs to earn a 1-point increase in their power rating.
Previous rating: 18
26. Chicago Bears (16.5)
The Bears had their chances to at least cover in their 31-23 loss to the Packers as 6.5-point home dogs, but an interception by Jay Cutler sealed their fate.
Previous rating: 17
27. (tie) Oakland Raiders (16)
Our panel was split on what to do with the Raiders' power rating. Their 33-13 loss to the Bengals would usually downgrade a team, but Oakland at least got good some news: QB Derek Carr's hand injury is just a bruise and he could be back this week.
Previous rating: 16
27. (tie) Washington Redskins (16)
The Redskins lost 17-10 and failed to cover as 4-point home underdogs, but they were more competitive than expected. The defense held its own against Miami. The offense showed signs of life, but it will miss DeSean Jackson.
Previous rating: 16
29. (tie) Cleveland Browns (15.5)
McCown left the Browns 31-10 loss to the New York Jets with a concussion, but it was the rest of the offense that looked woozy with Manziel at the helm. Manziel threw his first career TD, but otherwise looked lost out there. We downgraded them a full point.
Previous rating: 16.5
29. (tie) Tennessee Titans (15.5)
It's hard not to overreact to Marcus Mariota's debut, as he was accurate with his throws (and his reads) in leading the Titans to a 42-14 rout of the Buccaneers. The defense even looked better. Even though the win was against the Bucs, we upgraded the Titans by 1.5 points.
Previous rating: 14
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (15)
The Jaguars lost, as expected, 20-9, to Carolina as 3-point home dogs, but they were competitive until Bortles threw a bad pick-six in the second half.
Previous rating: 15
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13)
Jameis Winston threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass and it hardly ever got better for the offense -- and the defense didn't look very good, either -- as the Bucs were routed 42-14 by the Titans. It's hard to imagine the Bucs being any worse than last year, but we downgraded them by 1.5 points.
Previous rating: 14.5
[h=2]Week 2 value plays[/h]Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
Vegas consensus line: Chiefs -3
Vegas Ranks: Broncos -3.5 (26-22.5)
Our panel's raw numbers have the Broncos as 3.5 points better than the Chiefs. Even if giving KC a field goal or 3.5 points for home field, that puts the line at around pick-'em, so we see value in Denver getting a field goal.
The play: Broncos +3.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Vegas consensus line: Cardinals -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Cardinals -6 (22.5-16.5)
We have the Cardinals as six points better than the Bears, and even with Chicago's home-field advantage, this line should still be over a field goal. There appears to be value laying less than 3 with Arizona.
The play: Cardinals -2.5 (some books are at 2).
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RANK | TEAM | SEPT. 8 | SEPT. 15 | SB 50 ODDS |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | New England Patriots | 26.5 | 27 | 6-1 |
T-2 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 | 26 | 6-1 |
T-2 | Green Bay Packers | 26 | 26 | 7-2 |
T-2 | Denver Broncos | 26 | 26 | 12-1 |
5 | Dallas Cowboys | 24.5 | 24.5 | 18-1 |
T-6 | Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 24 | 12-1 |
T-6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 24 | 12-1 |
8 | Miami Dolphins | 23.5 | 23.5 | 18-1 |
T-9 | Buffalo Bills | 21.5 | 22.5 | 30-1 |
T-9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22.5 | 22.5 | 25-1 |
T-9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 22 | 22.5 | 20-1 |
T-9 | Baltimore Ravens | 23.5 | 22.5 | 25-1 |
T-13 | Detroit Lions | 22 | 22 | 50-1 |
T-13 | Arizona Cardinals | 21.5 | 22 | 25-1 |
T-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 21.5 | 21.5 | 25-1 |
T-15 | St. Louis Rams | 21 | 21.5 | 40-1 |
17 | Atlanta Falcons | 20 | 21 | 25-1 |
T-18 | New Orleans Saints | 21.5 | 20.5 | 40-1 |
T-18 | San Diego Chargers | 20 | 20.5 | 25-1 |
20 | Houston Texans | 21.5 | 20 | 60-1 |
21 | Minnesota Vikings | 20.5 | 19.5 | 40-1 |
T-22 | Carolina Panthers | 19 | 19 | 30-1 |
T-22 | New York Giants | 19.5 | 19 | 100-1 |
T-22 | New York Jets | 19 | 19 | 60-1 |
T-22 | San Francisco 49ers | 18 | 19 | 50-1 |
26 | Chicago Bears | 17 | 16.5 | 100-1 |
T-27 | Oakland Raiders | 16 | 16 | 300-1 |
T-27 | Washington Redskins | 16 | 16 | 300-1 |
T-29 | Cleveland Browns | 16.5 | 15.5 | 300-1 |
T-29 | Tennessee Titans | 14 | 15.5 | 80-1 |
31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 15 | 500-1 |
32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14.5 | 13 | 300-1 |
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |