New Betting Strategy

[kidman232]

basically oklahoma city is my favorite team when it comes to betting, they seem to get spanked in the first half and make nice runs in the 2nd half (to cover the halftime line). They rather seem to make the games respectable or even cover the game spread do to the late push. With that being said, i look to take the Rockets -5 first half tonight and then the okc 2nd half line if it plays into the above system.

 

[kidman232]

lets take a look at their games

game #1- down 15 @ half, lose by 11

game #2- down 1 @ half, lose by 12

game #3- down 1 @ half, win by 3

game #4- down 7 @ half, lose by 13

game #5- down 29 @ half, lose by 7

game #6- up 3 @ half, lose by 4

game #7- up 3 @ half, lose by 8

game #8- down 24 @ half, lose by 10

game #9- down 4 @ Half, lose by 25


so in the 9 games they have trailed at half 7 out of 9 games, and in the 2nd when staring down double digits they have outscored the opponents 3-0

 

[Shot_Selection]

<table width="100%" bgcolor="#cccccc" border="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="3"><center>[SIZE=-1]2008 [/SIZE]</center></td> <td colspan="5" bgcolor="#0000ff"><center>[SIZE=-1]Winning % by Quarter[/SIZE]</center></td> <td colspan="6" bgcolor="#000000"><center>[SIZE=-1]Net Points by Quarter[/SIZE]</center></td> <td colspan="1" bgcolor="#ffcc00"><center>[SIZE=-1]CBA[/SIZE]</center></td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#33cc33"> <td align="left">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td><center>[SIZE=-1]W%[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]1st[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]2nd[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]3rd[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]4th[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]OT[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]Game[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]1st[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]2nd[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]3rd[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]4th[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1]OT[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffcc00"><center>[SIZE=-1]Pts[/SIZE]</center></td></tr></tbody></table><table width="100%" bgcolor="#cccccc" border="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#f0f0df"><td align="left">[SIZE=-1]OKC
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1]0.111[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 25%[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 22%[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 44%[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 55%[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 0%[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] -8.8[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] -6.0[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] -5.1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] +1.4[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#99ff99">[SIZE=-1] +0.9[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] +0.0[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-1] 16.5[/SIZE]</td></tr></tbody></table>

Great observation Kidman. Here are the break down quarters of the OKC's Thunder. The lining might be off but still able to follow. I am going to follow you on this as they seem to put up more threes in the 2nd half or teams are blowing them out by so much that they stop caring.

 

[eoghater]

you guys can come up with whatever strategy you want, but please don't take my patented method capping nba sides.

 

[kidman232]

the first half line tonight is -5, but the game line has dropped from 9 to -8.5, waiting to see if the first half line will fall

 

[WorldNumberOne]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width="100%" bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD colSpan=3><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]2008 [/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD bgColor=#0000ff colSpan=5><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Winning % by Quarter[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD bgColor=#000000 colSpan=6><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Net Points by Quarter[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD bgColor=#ffcc00><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]CBA[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD align=left>

</TD><TD vAlign=top>

</TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]W%[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]1st[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]2nd[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]3rd[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]4th[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]OT[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Game[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]1st[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]2nd[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]3rd[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]4th[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]OT[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD><TD bgColor=#ffcc00><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]Pts[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 width="100%" bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=left>[SIZE=-1]OKC [/SIZE]

</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]0.111[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]25%[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]22%[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]44%[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]55%[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]0%[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]-8.8[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]-6.0[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]-5.1[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]+1.4[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#99ff99>[SIZE=-1]+0.9[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]+0.0[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]16.5[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Great observation Kidman. Here are the break down quarters of the OKC's Thunder. The lining might be off but still able to follow. I am going to follow you on this as they seem to put up more threes in the 2nd half or teams are blowing them out by so much that they stop caring.

where can i find that spreadsheet ? is their a site for it , or is it yours ?

 

[brewers7]

where can i find that spreadsheet ? is their a site for it , or is it yours ?

Looks like 82games.com, which is a must site for NBA handicappers, especially for injuries because you can see how valuable each player is to each team...

here is the SA link:

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809SAS.HTM

Look at how much they miss Parker...

 

[Shot_Selection]

82games.com

its a great site to compare statistical stats in order to help your decision, but I wouldn't make a a complete system out of it. It does help with matchups and seeing teams strengths and weaknesses

 

[Uno]

congrats on the first half! i would not have anything to do with the second half.

 

[Shot_Selection]

Thanks for the heads up Kidman, made some nice cash on it.

All honesty, that was luck and not to our statistical analysis. OKC came out firing hot and were around 65% in the first quarter. I do luck Houston to cover a 2nd half.

 

[kidman232]

first half play wins, id avoid the 2nd half myself

 

[kidman232]

if anything id do over 92 as okc tends to put up alot of points 2nd half, but only if ur really looking for action

 

[Uno]

kidman one way i might filter this is to only play OKC if they are down double digits or at least not covering.

 

[kidman232]

uno- i think betting against OK in the first half is a good bet, as for 2nd half, if they are down double digits, all take okc to cover 2nd half line (as long as its not ridic or any major injuries)

 

[kidman232]

tonights first half is a pick between okc and clippers. Clippers are a first half team that has trouble finishing, okc gets off to slow starts and finishes strong, think clippers pick for the first half is a good play

 

[kidman232]

easier read:

tonights play: Clippers first half pick

 

[kidman232]

tonights play was a loss, other interesting trend is, in the 3 times okc has been up at half, they have lost every game.