never too early for some Phil Steele returning starters.

[rivercitybirdie]

http://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JAN15/DBJan23.html

it is from January but the general numbers should be right............ does this still work well? I think so, but the lines certainly take it into some account (grammar?)

by conference (high/low):


AAC – Temple 19, UCF 7

ACC – NC 17, BC/Louisville 9
Big 10 – Michigan 17, Rutgers/Maryland 10
Big 12 – Baylor/TT 17, Kansas 8
CUSA – Charlotte 19, UTSA 5
MAC – Umass 19, Buffalo 11

MWC – Boise 16, Wyoming 10
Pac 12 – UCLA 18, Wash 10
SEC – Tenn/Vandy 18, MSU 9
Sunbelt – App. State 20, SAlabama 5

 

[CoachCB]

South Alabama picked up 3 or 4 starters from a decent UAB team.

 

[cloverleaf]

Vanderbilt could have 25 starters returning and it wouldn't matter....

...the Doars are that bad.

Big year for the North Carolina coaching staff....they have underachieved!

 

[BigdaddyQH]

There have been many changes since those numbers came out. I would like to see a more up to date version.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

South Alabama picked up 3 or 4 starters from a decent UAB team.

thx. that's good info I didn't know..

 

[rivercitybirdie]

There have been many changes since those numbers came out. I would like to see a more up to date version.

I agree...it's fairly soft number anyway (cutoffs as to definition of LY starter)... and of course as alluded to, transfers and JC can often be very good starters.

 

[cloverleaf]

Betting on teams with high number of returning starters will have you guessing on finding winners each week.

I suggest going the other way...teams with the least number of starters.

There's gold in them there hills........................

 

[GoSooners]

Betting on teams with high number of returning starters will have you guessing on finding winners each week.

I suggest going the other way...teams with the least number of starters.

There's gold in them there hills........................

Arizona for one..

 

[cloverleaf]

Sooners, I like you love to play with numbers hoping for a "Saturday Edge" once the season starts. Hell, I have so many files going so far this year I'm confusing myself....It will all sort out later.

For example: During the 2110-2013 seasons, team's who had 5,6 or 7 returning starters were 27-44 or 38% ATS. You can't find teams with 18-22 starters who give a gaming man those same results.

Past history doesn't guarantee a firm result on this season...but I ain't turning a blind eye.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

my own FWIW recollections is that "high returning starters" (and general phil steele "returning X analysis") has been pistol-hot at least two of the last six or seven seasons. and i never remember it doing really badly (individual teams have for sure). lots of years it's 50%+/- a few points, as might be expected.

it seems like there's so much focus on it now that i would think it would almost always be 50%+/-.....

i do think that further analysis often helps..... i think big difference between UMass/Tulane/NMS or Alabama/LSU/OHS having 7 starters vs. 18 starts back. and then everyone else in-between is semi-situational.

i have new theory i'm looking at that this "returning starter" info is +EV but that people stick with way too long.

 

[CoachCB]

thx. that's good info I didn't know..

A total of 9 UAB players transferred to South Alabama. They all participated in spring. Not sure how many are starters though.

UAB's leading tackler, LB Jake Ganus (6'2 225lb senior) is at UGA. He's #2 on the depth chart.

 

[cloverleaf]

Coach, linebacker Jake Ganus had a great spring with the Bulldogs. All the defensive coaches were impressed with his play and expect him to be a big contributor this season.

South Alabama needed all the new players they could get for this season. The rooster needs talent all over the field. Like you, I don't have any idea how any of the UAB transfers fit in with the program.

 

[rolltide]

A total of 9 UAB players transferred to South Alabama. They all participated in spring. Not sure how many are starters though.
.

Probably the most important "transfer" was the offensive coordinator, Vincent, and that started this migration. 10 guys in total but several were Vincent recruits so should not be considered as important additions until they actually take a snap in college.


Cody Clements QB - was blazer starter...up and down year but totally gets Vincent's offense. Tremendous long-ball thrower but not the greatest accuracy. Still completed 2/3 of his throws year 1 in this offense so should be ready for a big jump at SoBama
Kalen Jackson LB - backup LB on UAB. not used much
John Robinson LB - backup LB on UAB. not used much
DJ Vinson RB - jordan howard was UAB's #1 RB but Vinson was #2 and played a ton. Only 1 game last year where he didn't get 10+ carries. Played WR quite a bit as well...whether RB or WR he should be a decent player for SoBama
Josh Magee WR - played a lot on 3rd down..small guy used a lot in final part of season so should either start or be 3rd/4th WR for SoBama
Evan Orth QB - redshirted last year.
Gerald Everett TE - UAB play a lot in 2 TE offense so Everett played a ton even though Backman was the key pass catcher...Backman was drafted by GB btw. Everett should be one of best TE in conference
Kyle Sappington - transferred from USA to UAB and now back to USA. Played in every game last year...key special teams guy so will probably be the same at USA.
Cameron Blankenship - starting OG ... played probably 30 games for UAB. can play OT if needed. could be all-conference OG
Lee Dufour C - came in for Brian O'Leary last year when he got injured vs La Tech so has two starts as a true frosh. Unless they have an incumbent starting center Dufour should be the man.


essentially USA inherited a top OC, starting QB, starting RB, two starting OL, some depth at LB, and a likely starting WR.

UAB sort of fucked them though on the schedule. They already had UAB on the schedule to play after the trip to Lincoln and struggled to find a new opponent. Now they have to go from Lincoln to San Diego and then NC State the following week....pretty brutal stretch