Nevada vs Fresno State 10/23/2021

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Nevada winning 49% of simulations, and Fresno State 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Nevada commits fewer turnovers in 31% of simulations and they go on to win 60% when they take care of the ball. Fresno State wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Carson Strong is averaging 265 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. Jake Haener is averaging 277 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is FREST -4 --- Over/Under line is 60.5
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