Net YPP Differential Picks

[dkuritz]

Something that I like to look at when handicapping the NFL is a teams yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play compared to their opponents combined defensive average allowed and their yards per rush allowed, yards per pass allowed, and yards per play allowed compared to their opponents combine offensive average. This analysis allows you to see how a team has performed based on the difficulty or lack thereof of their opponents, not just as a raw number. A very powerful tool that provides this data nicely is foxsheets. Here is a link to the foxsheet for tonight's game between the Texans and Colts http://foxsheets.statfoxsports.com/N...heet.aspx?r=at. So using the net YPP differential for the match ups this week, I formulated lines based on net YPP differential and compared them to the lines available on the market. Based on these stats, their is value in taking the following teams:

Ten +2.5/3
Wash +7.5
CHI +9
STL +9/9.5
Cin -2.5/3
Oak +4.5

Here's a link to the spreadsheet I made to formulate these picks:https://twitter.com/DKs_Picks/status/652141196127526913

I'll continue to track these picks and they should only get stronger as the year goes on and there is more data. BOL.

 

[Bad_Cat]

FYI if your using YPP you would be better off and more accurate if you used YPP margin, not just YPP.

 

[dkuritz]

FYI if your using YPP you would be better off and more accurate if you used YPP margin, not just YPP.

If you look at my spreadsheet, I use the team's YPP minus the average defensive YPP of their opponents and the defensive YPP minus the average YPP of their opponents and then add those together to get the teams net YPP differential.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Very interesting.......thanks for sharing & good luck with all your plays!

 

[Bad_Cat]

There is a website that does the work for you. GL

 

[dkuritz]

There is a website that does the work for you. GL

What website is that?

 

[dkuritz]

Hope you got Cincy at -2.5, but I'll count it as a push. Good first week for the net ypp differential picks. Could've easily been 6-0 as the rams and raiders had great opportunities to cover.

Week 5: 3-2
Overall: 3-2

 

[dkuritz]

Week 6:

NO +3.5
CLE +4
Buf +3.5
KC +4
Jax +2
SD +10

Link to this weeks spreadsheet...https://twitter.com/DKs_Picks/status/654076902756499456

 

[bobbyjones2]

Hope you got Cincy at -2.5, but I'll count it as a push. Good first week for the net ypp differential picks. Could've easily been 6-0 as the rams and raiders had great opportunities to cover.

Week 5: 3-2
Overall: 3-2

sweet jesus..how neither of those dogs covered has me scratching my head..3 missed field goals in gb..a pick 6 in both? jesus man..crazy....best of luck w your system philly

 

[dkuritz]

Week 6: 3-3
Overall: 6-5

 

[dkuritz]

Week 7 picks were posted on my twitter...Jax, NYJ, Det, TB, Dal, Phi, Ari. Here's the link to the spreadsheet: https://twitter.com/DKs_Picks/status/658323703323828224

 

[dkuritz]

Wk 7: 4-3
Overall: 10-8

 

[dkuritz]

WK 8: Det +5.5, Chi +1, TB +7.5, Pit Pk, Dal +6, Den +3