My take on this game: UIC has the better talent and the best two players on the floor in Banks and Williams. Talent-wise, no question UIC is the better team. However, talent isn't nearly enough in college hoops and this UIC team is a prime example of that axiom. UIC was a much better team last year with Martell Bailey at the point. He got the ball to Williams and Banks in spots where they could score. He was a driver, penetrator and disher. He created opportunities on the offensive end. McGee isn't doing that. As a result, the Flames are using much more shot clock than they have in recent years and the quality of their shots is much poorer. Against teams that run a box and one style defense against them, the Flames have gotten little penetration and not nearly enough points in the paint. They are too talented inside to be a jump shooting team, but that's what they are on way too many possessions...and it starts with the point guard play. Look at their assist/to ratio....12 of each per game. While the ratio isn't negative, and they really don't turn the ball over much, 12 assists/game just won't get it done in college hoops (and they've gotten a remarkably poor 9 assists/game on the road due to their poor road shooting). Tonight, UIC might get extra shots because they will win the rebounding battle, but I don't see them getting great shots from inside or outside against a Loyola team that is (for the first time in years) beginning to emphasize defense. The Ramblers are holding opponents to a respectable 41% at home. And UIC, due to their offensive struggles, are shooting just 41% on the road. UIC is not getting it done on the defensive end either, allowing opponents to shoot 47% on the road and allowing over 40% from trey on the road. UIC also a bad free throw shooting team at 66%. So if you ask me whether I would want to take the more talented team...not in this case. To me, this is a poor shooting favorite that is struggling offensively and not playing great defense. Talent alone won't necessarily overcome that. Jimmy needs to get better PG play and better penetration. They haven't done it much yet.
As far as UIC's record goes....the loss to Milwaukee at home to me is the most telling. They matched up pretty evenly talent-wise, but couldn't make plays when they needed to. THey lived by the jump shot and they died by it. I throw out the loss to Parkside as one of those games where kids mail one in and show up for the game thinking all they have to do is show up. TOnight is the rivalry game, so focus won't be a problem. However, UIC's struggled against teams that focused on taking Banks out of the game......Bowling Green, DePaul and Detroit. I suspect Loyola will do the same and try to make the other four guys beat them with jump shots. That's not something UIC has been able to do very successfully against board teams with comparable talent.
I know a lot of guys automatically play the more talented team. Not me. To me, UIC's struggles make them an untouchable team right now. I have been a big backer of UIC in recent years. I won't be on them again this year until I see them getting the kind of offensive movement, penetration, assists and results that they had in those years. That doesn't mean I'll play Loyola....they haven't demonstrated enough to me to expect they can beat a more talented team in essentially a pick em game at home.
good luck