Need ur help in finding a formula from therx

[Ramonskee]

There was a formula that i remember reading in a mega thread started by pops, tbone n that crew for 2nd half totals in basketball.

it was something about betting the 2nd half total after there was a lot of scoring in the first half. i forgot how it worked so unfortunately thats all i can give you right now.

does anyone know what im talking about? and if so, do you remember the formula? if so, please share! lol

 

[gabbana]

are you refering to this system ramon ?

1. use the score at half time and the original line to create a new game line.
2. take the difference between the new line and the original line.
3. Whenever you get +10 or more points of line "value" over the original line

here is an example of a game from last season:
Detroit vs Indiana the original total was 186.

There was 103 total points in the first half.
The second half total line was 95.

103 + 95 = a new game line of 198.
The original line was 186 so the difference:

198 - 186 = +12 line value points on the UNDER
186 - 198 = -12 line value points on the OVER

 

[gabbana]

not sure if you got the idea but that pretty much what i remember...

 

[tatehill2000]

gabanna what was your record with that system?? how many years did you use it? And did you do better with overs versus unders?

tater

 

[gabbana]

hey tate ..i only used this system one week last season and all went well but since i'm not from usa i couldnt stay late every night so i dropped it ..but i heard that its very good ..usually when i i find good systems i copy them.

 

[tatehill2000]

gabanna, lol, I am on the west caost (almost) and with my work, I dont get out until 8-8.30pac. pm lol so Im kindof in the same boat, I can only take advantage of that system once a week or less, because the occurrance probably doesnt happen often either?

thanks for posting it though,,,
tater

 

[gabbana]

i dont know how often occures depends on how much the teams are scoring.

gl on the season man.

 

[MonsterBuck]

Gab, are you going to post your pre-season picks? (In an other thread than the contest) I remember you did great in the regular season :toast:

 

[gabbana]

well man as i said for the constest its just a warmup i dont bet those game
but if its needed i will open a thread from tomorrow on for trracking purpose.

 

[brewers7]

Tate:

that formula (system) mentioned here shouldn't be hard to track in my database...I have 17 years worth of data and I honestly don't think it would take me very long at all to add that formula and come up with a W/L record for that 2H totals system and post it if you want the numbers...Let me know...

 

[tatehill2000]

thnks man, i sent u a pm
tater

 

[hardys4ever2000]

while were talking about systems before the season starts. i was thinking about last year and a system i remember hearing about/following revolving around taking

the winning % from the favored team
subtracing the winning % of the underdog team

then dividing that number by 20

then adding or subtracing the spread (i cant remember which)
then adding or subtracting 3 points for home or away

and...if the total was above 10 you bet on the favored team and if it was negative then you bet on the underdog spread to cover. and between 0 and 9.9 you didnt bet. Maybe im talking out of my ass but i thought i remember a system like this and it being pretty succesful. also i think there was a filter of waitng 20 games into the season and "x" amount of games after the all star break, i dont remember though. any help??

 

[tatehill2000]

Hardys, that thread is in my LARRYBIRD post,,, its called NBA THE MATH WAY,,

I know there are a few cats ont he boards that know larry, Im hopeing they will popin to reexplain the revised system ,,, it needed to be revised,,, I have the genisis of the original it has holes that were repaired,,,,

that system hit at a MID 65% rate I believe for the season,,,, very profitable,,

Im sure witha few hours of research I will find it inthe archives here,,,, I just wont have time till thursday to look for it,

good luck:toast:
tater

 

[brewers7]

Hardys, that thread is in my LARRYBIRD post,,, its called NBA THE MATH WAY,,

I know there are a few cats ont he boards that know larry, Im hopeing they will popin to reexplain the revised system ,,, it needed to be revised,,, I have the genisis of the original it has holes that were repaired,,,,

that system hit at a MID 65% rate I believe for the season,,,, very profitable,,

Im sure witha few hours of research I will find it inthe archives here,,,, I just wont have time till thursday to look for it,

good luck:toast:
tater

If you can find out what the formula is, let me know as it sounds like a formula I can plug into my MS-Excel NBA database and backtrack the results to the 1991-92 season...

I am punching the other formula now, Tater, and will let you know what I find...

 

[tatehill2000]

thanks brew,,,

I will look up the system on thurs if nooneelse does by then, the problem as i said, it had Holes and they were complex ones,,, I dont know if the math system is plugable,, lolol,,,

I jsut remember reading the 4th or 5th version of it as it was being tweeked, and I had to reread it 10 times slowly to wrap my brain around the angle:lol: It might of been that I had too many of these though:drink:

gl and thanks brew!! every year you lend a hand getting us on track for the NBA!! thanks

tater

 

[brewers7]

1. use the score at half time and the original line to create a new game line.
2. take the difference between the new line and the original line.
3. Whenever you get +10 or more points of line "value" over the original line

here is an example of a game from last season:
Detroit vs Indiana the original total was 186.

There was 103 total points in the first half.
The second half total line was 95.

103 + 95 = a new game line of 198.
The original line was 186 so the difference:

198 - 186 = +12 line value points on the UNDER
186 - 198 = -12 line value points on the OVER

Ok, so how I understand it is you take the:
------------------------------------------------------------
NEW TOTAL (1H total points scored + 2H total line) - Original game total

and if it is +10 or higher, you take the Under in the 2H

and if it is -10 or lower, you take the Over in the 2H
-------------------------------------------------------------
Surprising results, not what you'll want to see...

For all games from 1991-92 thru 2007-08

all games at +10 or higher at the half (which you take the Under):

1956 overs --- 49%
62 pushes ---- 1.6%
1974 unders -- 49.4%


all games at -10 or lower at the half (which you take the Over):

1830 overs --- 46.7%
79 pushes ---- 2%
2008 unders -- 51.3%

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe I could raise the number to 20 and crunch those?...

 

[hardys4ever2000]

yea try 15 and 20 see what kind of results you get maybe we'll find a "clinching" point.

 

[hardys4ever2000]

also i think i found that system me and tate were talkin about maybe you can try and punch it in, not sure how possible it is. but i can pm you the system and maybe we'll see good success with it.

 

[brewers7]

also i think i found that system me and tate were talkin about maybe you can try and punch it in, not sure how possible it is. but i can pm you the system and maybe we'll see good success with it.

I'll crunch a higher number tomorrow...

Here is a sample of one section of my database:

Database, Team Sample

Now if you look at the info contained there, you can see that each team's current record and winning percentage going into the game is available, so everything Tater and you mentioned in that formula I have, which means unless he adds something else I don't have, it can be crunched with my database fairly quickly...

The other section of the database is laid out like this:

Database, Regular Season Sample

 

[hardys4ever2000]

ok ill see how quickly i can figure some stuff out but prolly tomorrow haha im tired. also just so i know because i dont use a lot of tables and all this stuff what is C/NC? sorry for being so lingo illiterit or however its spelled