Need help with a math problem

[Iceman]

Okay I have a math problema and I was wondering if someone could help me with this.

Let's say the average NBA team scores/allows 92 points in a game.

Okay first you have Denver who averages 100 points a game for the season against the entire league and they are now playing Boston who allows 96 points on average a game against the enitre league. How many points should Denver score using the above inoformation. Now it cant be 98 points (the average between Denver scoring and Boston allowing) because Denver already averages 100 points in all of ther games and since Boston gives up more then the league average of 92 points (they give up 96 on average) then Denver should score more then 100 points, right? If I am doing this right then Denver should score 104 points againt Boston right? Am I right?


Okay if we agree on this lets use the same information but change one small thing. League average is 92 points a game, Denver still scores 100 points a game against the entire league, now what if Boston allows 90 points a game to the entire league? Is the answer Denver will score 98 points? You still dont split it down the middle even though 90% of the people would say Denver scores 100 points and Boston allows 90 points then 95 is what Denver should scrore.

Not sure what the correct terminiology is for this. I think I am doing it right. The second example seems like a no brainer and you average them out and get 95 but you cant do that in example 2 if you dont do that in example 1, correct?

What are the answers? Example 1 is 104 points for Denver and example 2 is 98 points for Denver? I think I am right. Math guys please help me out. Thanks.

 

[VegasDave31]

The best thing to do is add Denver's points per game + Boston's points per game given up and then subtract the league average in scoring.

So, if Team A scores 100 points a game and Team B gives up 92 points per game (league average), they have an average defense and its safe to say that Team A should score about 100.

Averaging does not work. Lets say Team A scores 100 points per game and Team B gives up 108 points per game. Adding 100 + 108 and dividing by 2 gives us 104 points. But will Team A really only score 4 more points than usual on such a lousy D?

If instead you add 100 + 108 = 208, -92 (league average) = 116, thats a much more accurate portrayal of what a great offense should do against such a bad defense.

 

[VegasDave31]

Also, consider just using a teams last 6 games or so for PPG and points against, and throw out the highest and lowest scores. This should give you a better indication of what they've been doing lately, and one uncharacteristically high or low scoring game won't mess up the average.

Hope this helps!

 

[goodcall]

I would do 100*96/92 for example 1

(avg pts scored * opp. avg pts allowed ) / league average

 

[winbet]

The equation your using is very basic and I personally would use it only in conjunction with other figures to get a true number. The Win/Loss ratio is a big factor and I also use the direct figures without the league average and then get an average of all 3. For Totals I would use your formula added to a bias for Under/over from the stats and personally an under/over percentage of 3pt'ers. :drink:

 

[winbet]

Ice,
Just a thought. It does matter what your trying to achieve, is it to find the real number so that you can see where the Books stand ( the reason I do this) or to cap a game. Capping a game is more individualistic as theirs no point in coming up with the same figure as the Books, hence why I use the 3pt average. :drink:

 

[Iceman]

Let me add this has nothing to do with NBA totals. I have been doing something already with NBA totals then involves points per posession an total possesion per game and have done great with it but this has nothing to with my question at all so please everyone disregard that part. I am just using that as my example. I was going to rushing yards per carry in NFL but thru something ot there that was basic and used the most basic numbers so I went with basketball scoring.

 

[Iceman]

The best thing to do is add Denver's points per game + Boston's points per game given up and then subtract the league average in scoring.

So, if Team A scores 100 points a game and Team B gives up 92 points per game (league average), they have an average defense and its safe to say that Team A should score about 100.

Averaging does not work. Lets say Team A scores 100 points per game and Team B gives up 108 points per game. Adding 100 + 108 and dividing by 2 gives us 104 points. But will Team A really only score 4 more points than usual on such a lousy D?

If instead you add 100 + 108 = 208, -92 (league average) = 116, thats a much more accurate portrayal of what a great offense should do against such a bad defense.

I think we are doing the same thing but you are not using the right numbers from example.

 

[winbet]

Let me add this has nothing to do with NBA totals. I am just using that as my example. I was going to rushing yards per carry in NFL.

As I said its an individual thing but I would consider Rushing YPC more as an advantage for the Home Team. Another problem is rushing Yards have stood up well over the last 15 Years but I'm finding they have less significance in the lasst Two Years. :drink:

 

[Scoops]

106 :toast:

 

[Iceman]

106 :toast:

Is this a guess? Show me how you are coming up with 106 please. Thanks.

 

[VegasDave31]

I think we are doing the same thing but you are not using the right numbers from example.

Okay first you have Denver who averages 100 points a game for the season against the entire league and they are now playing Boston who allows 96 points on average a game against the enitre league. How many points should Denver score using the above inoformation. Now it cant be 98 points (the average between Denver scoring and Boston allowing) because Denver already averages 100 points in all of ther games and since Boston gives up more then the league average of 92 points (they give up 96 on average) then Denver should score more then 100 points, right? If I am doing this right then Denver should score 112 points againt Boston right? Am I right?

100 + 96 = 196, 196 - 92 = 104 Denver scoring.

Denver tends to score 8 more points than the league average. Boston tends to give up 4 more points than the league average. So accounting for both of these means Denver should score 12 points more than the league average today, using my simple equation.

 

[Iceman]

I just double checked my problem and made a mistake. My answer would be 104 in the first example, is this right.

 

[Iceman]

Right that is what I got. I acciddently added 12 points (over the league norm) to denvers team total the first time, I meant to add it to the average of the league.

In the 2nd example then it would be what? 98 correct.?

 

[winbet]

I just double checked my problem and made a mistake. My answer would be 104 in the first example, is this right.

Yes, I fell for the same thing. :drink:

 

[VegasDave31]

Right that is what I got. I acciddently added 12 points (over the league norm) to denvers team total the first time, I meant to add it to the average of the league.

In the 2nd example then it would be what? 98 correct.?

Yes thats "correct"

Keep in mind this is a simple forumla that won't really work too practically but at least as a reference point I believe you are using the right formula.

 

[HarryCaray]

I would do 100*96/92 for example 1

Agreed. In this example, Boston gives up points at a ratio of (96/92), or 1.042 points per every point the league gives up on average. In other words they give up 104.3% of the league average.

If Denver scores 100 ppg against the league average (I am making the assumption that Denver has played exactly league "average" teams), they should score 104.3% of that, or about 104 points.

Same answer as the simple equation in this example, but I think it's a more accurate formula.