Need a little help regarding hedging this Crazy bet

[crazy]

Here it goes, I have 375 ridding on Vancouver to win the cup. This payout is for 9375

should I hedge this play by playing on chicago for the series? And how much if so....

Here is another piece of the puzzle, Lets not forget that vancouver may end up playing detroit next round and hedgin it will probably be pricy, so I can't hedge too much on this chicago series. atleast that is my delema


I also have 2 other plays that pay 2000 each which are Washington and Carolina. I consider them a little insurence for the time being and will not hedge them.

This is a Crazy problem and not really sure which way I should go!

looking forward to your opinions :toast:

 

[PassTheBuck]

I'm in a some-what similar situation as you. I have Vancouver at +1600 to win the West for a hefty wager. Personally, I am going to let it ride through the 2nd round, which may end up biting me in the ass. I will absolutely hedge should they advance to the Conference Finals. I think both Detroit and Anaheim are more than capable of handing out a beating to the Canucks.

 

[X-Files]

There are various ways to hedge, but this is one way:

Make a $300 bet on Chicago @ +125 to win the series.
That will cover your initial bet in case the Black Hawks
win, so you wouldn't lose the $375.

If the Canucks advance and face Detroit, the Red Wings
might be -200, no more than -250, unless Luongo is out
with a season ending injury or something. You could hedge
this series again in a similar manner as with Chicago.

Then, if the Canucks make it to the final, the worst case
scenario is they'd meet Boston, who'd be maybe -170.
With one last hedge here on Boston, and with Vancouver
winning the Stanley Cup, you'd be well ahead, a few
thousand i guess.

Though in this last series i might want to make it so
that half or even all the winnings ended up on Boston.

 

[crazyivan]

If you can't afford to lose $375, you shouldn't have made this futures bet with the intention of hedging imo.

I have Canucks +3300 and Capitals +2300 and I'm riding both from December.

 

[TheRocker]

If you can't afford to lose $375, you shouldn't have made this futures bet with the intention of hedging imo.

I have Canucks +3300 and Capitals +2300 and I'm riding both from December.

I agree. Don't hedge, at least not yet.

 

[crazyivan]

Also, the best time to hedge is in the finals, if your team gets there. But you should treat all future bets as separate, you are risking very little to win alot more.
If anything I'm betting some on Canucks and Capitals series this round at affordable prices of -130 and -110

 

[NASDAQREDLINE]

I agree. Don't hedge, at least not yet.

I second that. Don't hedge in this round.

 

[crazy]

Its' not a question of not affording my wager. i placed it at the begining of the season and put aside a little every week in case it they did not make the playoffs.

every year i'm in similar situation and end up with Zero to show for it. thats why I asked for an opinion


Nasdaq and the rest thanks for the replies

I will wait it out, sounds like the best plan.

 

[X-Files]

Even if Chicago wins the first three games, or goes up 3-1 or 3-2
in games in the series, it is still possible to hedge, such as by
betting on the Hawks in individual games. Hopefully, though, the
Canucks will sweep it, or at least win fairly comfortably.

 

[crazy]

Even if Chicago wins the first three games, or goes up 3-1 or 3-2
in games in the series, it is still possible to hedge, such as by
betting on the Hawks in individual games. Hopefully, though, the
Canucks will sweep it, or at least win fairly comfortably.

good advice, I will keep that in mind

thanks

 

[HawkN-Flight]

Here,s an option or angle. Ill give you the example.

If you are pretty confident the wings take out the ducks. Bet a 1000 on the Wings to win the western conference.Current odds are
Wings even to win the west
Boston +130 to win the east

Now you need to get Van to win . Should the Hawks win game a game 3 start hedging to get even on your original bet.

If the Wings win and Van wins which is perfect . Then , If the wings beat the canucks you,ll be up a 1000. If Van wins , your in the finals and it only cost you a 1000 to get in. If you bet the wings to win the west, you save half the price, should you try to hedge against detroit at -200 odds.
Now if Wings win and Hawks win. Then you have the option of sticking with your series bet of 1000 or bet 500 on Chi +200 to win the series to break even. You can also bet the Hawks for 750 and guarantee a payoff of ...a Det win, you profit 250 or a Hawks win +500.
The Key is that Det must win against the Ducks!

Now after saying all that. I notice that some books don,t carry odds to win the west and eastern championships. I play at Pinnacle and they didn,t put odds out on this. Is it just pure coincidience that Pinnacle didn,t put lines out on this ? I ,m thinking not. Pinny does not want action on Det to win the west , they want the hedging money going against Det. Smart huh ?

Anyhow, just a thought. GL.

 

[crazy]

HawkN thanks for the input, I don't have those lines available, but I do have Detroit to win the cup at plus 200

Which may work just as well as your example by putting quite a bit that way.

Shit have to really think quickly now for I'm sure they will take these lines down the minute the first game starts.

gives me 2 hours...I hate rushing!!

 

[megold]

Ther's no right or wrong answer on this question. It depends on what level of risk you're comfortable with and how confident you are that the Nucks will beat the Hawks.
If the risk doesn't bother you then sit tight. If however you are not feeling confident that Van. will beat Chicago, then by all means bet a hedge.
Remember it's important to your psyche not to be kicking yourself later because you failed to hedge a bet you weren't entirely sure of. There's nothing to be ashamed of in protecting your bankroll. You have enough profit built into the original wager to get back your initial wager if Van doesn't advance.

 

[crazy]

I'm over thinking myself, and really starting to get confused.

megold yup, I'm not worried about losing my initial investment,just trying to maximize my return so I will just stick to what I had decided previously and let it ride for now


thank-you allmates for your contributions