CFB YTD: 85-61
NFL YTD: 29-21
CFB Chalk Play of the Week: 11-2 ATS
Mediocre week last week. Went 5-5. Bright spot was that the big chalk play of the week hit again w/ USF covering against UCONN. On to the games:
1. Texas -34.5 - Obvious mismatch. Line is high for a reason. Would be my chalk play of the week if spread was a little lower. I am looking for a 45-60 point Texas win here, minimum.
2. Pitt +3.5 - Backyard brawl. Going with the home dog here. These teams look about even to me and Pitt has at least a 50/50 chance of winning this game on their home turf.
3. ***Chalk play of the week: ECU -5 over UTEP - The kneejerk reaction is to take the hot underdog scoring buckets of points. Resist it. The UTEP D is a serious problem here, giving up over 500 yards/game in conference play. ECU, who normally struggles to score, will have no problems putting up points on the Miners. ECU D is one of the best Ds in the conference, and I think they can slow down UTEP attack. ECU has big edge at line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
4. Houston -3 over Rice - Battle for the city of Houston. Big game for both teams. Houston offense is en fuego, putting up nearly 600 yards/game in conference play. Rice D is really soft and won't slow Houston down at all. Houston D is solid and will get a few stops against potent Rice offense to open up a little gap here.
5. Notre Dame +32 over USC - ND won't keep this close, but i think they are slightly underrated. ND's record would be better if they learned how to close out games, and an 8-3 ND team would not be anywhere near this big of a dog in this spot. ND has outgained opponents by over 50 yards/game on the season and they are getting almost five touchdowns. I realize SC is strong, but come on.
6. Clemson -1 over South Carolina - Carolina offense is a disgrace. Clemson has played well on defense this year for the most part, and I think they will really shut Gamecock attack down at home just like they did last year in Columbia.
7. Oregon State -3 over Oregon - Teams about even on offense, but Beavers play much better D and they are at home here. Two big edges for Beavers in this ball game. Plenty of motivation too in rivalry game with Rose Bowl hanging in the balance.
8. Kansas +16 over Mizzou - Mizzou defense has not impressed me enough this year to lay this much wood on a neutral field against a Jayhawk team that can score some points.
9. Oklahoma -7 over Okie State - My initial reaction was to take the home dog when the line first came out. Then i dug a little deeper. The Pokes' two toughest opponents this year were Texas and Texas Tech. At Texas, Okie State surrendered 504 yards of offense to Texas. At Texas Tech, Okie State surrendered 629 yards. Granted, both those games were on the road, but still, the Pokes have demonstrated no ability to slow down a high powered offense. Now comes the most talented offense in the entire country. I have a lot of confidence that Okie State will score here, but i have no confidence that their defense, specifically their DL, will get anything done. I look for a spirited effort out of the Pokes to start the game, but eventually the more talented team will take control and pull away. I am laying the wood with the Sooners and i really think the battle in the trenches is a big mismatch in favor of Bob Stoops' men.
10. Florida State +16.5 over Florida - After everything we have seen from Florida, there is no way in the world that Florida is still an underrated football team. The line has become so inflated in their games that now they have to cover three scores on the road, against a big time rival who has a decent talent level. How in the world is that value??? Seminoles are the clear play here.
11. Syracuse +22 over Cincy - Cincy is valuable team as small chalk or as a dog. Not as a 22-point favorite though. The team simply is not that talented. They were really jacked up for Pitt and Cincy is on a mission to go to the BCS. I think Cincy lets down a little here as they really built that Pitt game up as THE game they needed to win to get to the BCS. Cincy in cruise control now and while they will win the game, i doubt they cover the huge spread. Their is no incentive whatsover for them to run up the score either. All they need is to simply win the game to get into the BCS.
12. Arkansas +4.5 - LSU has the look of a team that has mailed it in. That is the main reason i am playing this game. LSU is definitely the more talented team, but after the miserable egg they laid in Baton Rouge last week, it will be very hard for them to bounce back and get excited to play a lesser Arkansas squad on the road.
NFL YTD: 29-21
CFB Chalk Play of the Week: 11-2 ATS
Mediocre week last week. Went 5-5. Bright spot was that the big chalk play of the week hit again w/ USF covering against UCONN. On to the games:
1. Texas -34.5 - Obvious mismatch. Line is high for a reason. Would be my chalk play of the week if spread was a little lower. I am looking for a 45-60 point Texas win here, minimum.
2. Pitt +3.5 - Backyard brawl. Going with the home dog here. These teams look about even to me and Pitt has at least a 50/50 chance of winning this game on their home turf.
3. ***Chalk play of the week: ECU -5 over UTEP - The kneejerk reaction is to take the hot underdog scoring buckets of points. Resist it. The UTEP D is a serious problem here, giving up over 500 yards/game in conference play. ECU, who normally struggles to score, will have no problems putting up points on the Miners. ECU D is one of the best Ds in the conference, and I think they can slow down UTEP attack. ECU has big edge at line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
4. Houston -3 over Rice - Battle for the city of Houston. Big game for both teams. Houston offense is en fuego, putting up nearly 600 yards/game in conference play. Rice D is really soft and won't slow Houston down at all. Houston D is solid and will get a few stops against potent Rice offense to open up a little gap here.
5. Notre Dame +32 over USC - ND won't keep this close, but i think they are slightly underrated. ND's record would be better if they learned how to close out games, and an 8-3 ND team would not be anywhere near this big of a dog in this spot. ND has outgained opponents by over 50 yards/game on the season and they are getting almost five touchdowns. I realize SC is strong, but come on.
6. Clemson -1 over South Carolina - Carolina offense is a disgrace. Clemson has played well on defense this year for the most part, and I think they will really shut Gamecock attack down at home just like they did last year in Columbia.
7. Oregon State -3 over Oregon - Teams about even on offense, but Beavers play much better D and they are at home here. Two big edges for Beavers in this ball game. Plenty of motivation too in rivalry game with Rose Bowl hanging in the balance.
8. Kansas +16 over Mizzou - Mizzou defense has not impressed me enough this year to lay this much wood on a neutral field against a Jayhawk team that can score some points.
9. Oklahoma -7 over Okie State - My initial reaction was to take the home dog when the line first came out. Then i dug a little deeper. The Pokes' two toughest opponents this year were Texas and Texas Tech. At Texas, Okie State surrendered 504 yards of offense to Texas. At Texas Tech, Okie State surrendered 629 yards. Granted, both those games were on the road, but still, the Pokes have demonstrated no ability to slow down a high powered offense. Now comes the most talented offense in the entire country. I have a lot of confidence that Okie State will score here, but i have no confidence that their defense, specifically their DL, will get anything done. I look for a spirited effort out of the Pokes to start the game, but eventually the more talented team will take control and pull away. I am laying the wood with the Sooners and i really think the battle in the trenches is a big mismatch in favor of Bob Stoops' men.
10. Florida State +16.5 over Florida - After everything we have seen from Florida, there is no way in the world that Florida is still an underrated football team. The line has become so inflated in their games that now they have to cover three scores on the road, against a big time rival who has a decent talent level. How in the world is that value??? Seminoles are the clear play here.
11. Syracuse +22 over Cincy - Cincy is valuable team as small chalk or as a dog. Not as a 22-point favorite though. The team simply is not that talented. They were really jacked up for Pitt and Cincy is on a mission to go to the BCS. I think Cincy lets down a little here as they really built that Pitt game up as THE game they needed to win to get to the BCS. Cincy in cruise control now and while they will win the game, i doubt they cover the huge spread. Their is no incentive whatsover for them to run up the score either. All they need is to simply win the game to get into the BCS.
12. Arkansas +4.5 - LSU has the look of a team that has mailed it in. That is the main reason i am playing this game. LSU is definitely the more talented team, but after the miserable egg they laid in Baton Rouge last week, it will be very hard for them to bounce back and get excited to play a lesser Arkansas squad on the road.
