College YTD: 65-47
NFL YTD: 19-12
Chalk Plays of the Week: 9-1 ATS
1. Marshall +8 over ECU - I think these two teams are about equal, and i'm taking the points. I was really impressed with marshall when they played Houston last week.
2. Ohio State -10.5 over NW - Ohio state is rested, Northwestern has no homefield edge, Northwestern is banged up and Ohio State has owned the Wildcats. Last year it was 58-7 in Columbus. Northwestern just matches up very poorly with Ohio State. Ohio State will move the ball on these clowns. Northwestern will get blown off the ball and will struggle to move the ball with a makeshift offense against a defensive juggernaut.
3. Iowa state +9.5 over Colorado - The way Colorado is playing right now, i would not trust them to even win the game, much less cover a big line. They should have beaten A&M last week, but this team is just not very sound at all.
4. Notre Dame +3.5 over BC - BC has been showing it's true colors recently. This team is much weaker than last year's squad as expected. ND is obviously a lot better this year and this is a winnable game for them.
5. Cal +22.5 over SC - Think the final will be something like USC 31-14. Cal is a competent football team. SC lines are always inflated, but you have to pick your spots against them. Against weak teams, oddsmakers can't make the lines high enough in their games. That gives the decent teams good line value against the Trojans.
6. Baylor +28 over Texas - I expect a letdown from Texas here. They can finally relax after going through the gauntlet. Baylor has been surprisingly much better this year in the Big 12.
7. West Virginia -6.5 over Cincy - West Virginia looks to have the best D in the conference right now. I don't like Cincy's offense to do a whole lot here, and WVU will eventually break the Cats D. West Virginia was favored by 5 at Cincy last year, so it appears that WVU has picked up line value from last year's contest even though both teams have dropped off pretty much equally from last season.
8. A&M/Oklahoma over 69 - No one has stopped OU yet. A&M won't either.
9. Texas Tech -3 over Okie State *(chalk play of the day) - Tech won't let down here. Okie State is highly rated, the Red Raiders are playing with revenge from last year and this is a prime time game in the hornet's nest that is Lubbock, Texas. It should be a good game, but i like Tech to prevail here. Tech was favored by 6 at Okie State last year, so the Red Raiders have picked up some decent line value since these teams last met. Oddsmakers have more than compensated for Okie State's rise to power. I don't feel the Cowboys are an underrated team any longer.
10. ULL/Utep over 73.5 - This will be a scoring feast in perfect weather. Neither defense will get much done here.
11. UVA/Wake under 40 - Neither team can score, and both teams play tough D. This could be real low scoring. My database is calling for a 14-10 UVA win. I think the database thinks too highly of UVA, but i trust the score for sure.
12. So Miss -3 over UCF - UCF is terrible. Southern Miss is averaging 40 ppg in conference play. I love betting against teams that can't move the ball. Southern Miss finally exploded last week and it was a long time coming. Golden Eagles are putting up 516 yards of offense in conference play.
Good luck!<!-- / message -->
NFL YTD: 19-12
Chalk Plays of the Week: 9-1 ATS
1. Marshall +8 over ECU - I think these two teams are about equal, and i'm taking the points. I was really impressed with marshall when they played Houston last week.
2. Ohio State -10.5 over NW - Ohio state is rested, Northwestern has no homefield edge, Northwestern is banged up and Ohio State has owned the Wildcats. Last year it was 58-7 in Columbus. Northwestern just matches up very poorly with Ohio State. Ohio State will move the ball on these clowns. Northwestern will get blown off the ball and will struggle to move the ball with a makeshift offense against a defensive juggernaut.
3. Iowa state +9.5 over Colorado - The way Colorado is playing right now, i would not trust them to even win the game, much less cover a big line. They should have beaten A&M last week, but this team is just not very sound at all.
4. Notre Dame +3.5 over BC - BC has been showing it's true colors recently. This team is much weaker than last year's squad as expected. ND is obviously a lot better this year and this is a winnable game for them.
5. Cal +22.5 over SC - Think the final will be something like USC 31-14. Cal is a competent football team. SC lines are always inflated, but you have to pick your spots against them. Against weak teams, oddsmakers can't make the lines high enough in their games. That gives the decent teams good line value against the Trojans.
6. Baylor +28 over Texas - I expect a letdown from Texas here. They can finally relax after going through the gauntlet. Baylor has been surprisingly much better this year in the Big 12.
7. West Virginia -6.5 over Cincy - West Virginia looks to have the best D in the conference right now. I don't like Cincy's offense to do a whole lot here, and WVU will eventually break the Cats D. West Virginia was favored by 5 at Cincy last year, so it appears that WVU has picked up line value from last year's contest even though both teams have dropped off pretty much equally from last season.
8. A&M/Oklahoma over 69 - No one has stopped OU yet. A&M won't either.
9. Texas Tech -3 over Okie State *(chalk play of the day) - Tech won't let down here. Okie State is highly rated, the Red Raiders are playing with revenge from last year and this is a prime time game in the hornet's nest that is Lubbock, Texas. It should be a good game, but i like Tech to prevail here. Tech was favored by 6 at Okie State last year, so the Red Raiders have picked up some decent line value since these teams last met. Oddsmakers have more than compensated for Okie State's rise to power. I don't feel the Cowboys are an underrated team any longer.
10. ULL/Utep over 73.5 - This will be a scoring feast in perfect weather. Neither defense will get much done here.
11. UVA/Wake under 40 - Neither team can score, and both teams play tough D. This could be real low scoring. My database is calling for a 14-10 UVA win. I think the database thinks too highly of UVA, but i trust the score for sure.
12. So Miss -3 over UCF - UCF is terrible. Southern Miss is averaging 40 ppg in conference play. I love betting against teams that can't move the ball. Southern Miss finally exploded last week and it was a long time coming. Golden Eagles are putting up 516 yards of offense in conference play.
Good luck!<!-- / message -->
