ND2000's Plays of Week 1

[nd2000]

****Chalk Play of the Week***

Wanted to get this out there immediately as line is going up. I'm taking Nebraska -21 over FAU in a blowout. There are many reasons why i like this play.

1. The mismatch at the line of scrimmage is immense on both sides of the ball. FAU may have the worst front seven on defense in the entire Sun Belt, while Nebraska will have top tier line play on both sides of the ball this year in the Big 12. The Huskers will push these guys around all game long.

2. Howard Schnellenberger has a history of mailing in these types of games that he knows his team cannot win in order to save his team for conference play. I don't expect FAU's best game here by any stretch of the imagination.

3. Last year FAU went to Texas for the first game of the year, and the mismatch in the trenches was a complete joke, and that was a much better FAU team on paper. Even though Nebraska has inexperience at the QB position, it will not matter in this contest.

4. All Nebraska has on deck is a home date with Arkansas State, so i see no reason why they would be looking past this contest.

Should be a complete blowout. Still working on my underdog pick of the week. Right now, looking at possibly Miami, FL +5, but not certain yet.

 

[Proman]

A few things to consider: Last Year FAU was blown out by Texas in the opener. Set the tone for a slow start. Howard should have the troops motivated to avoid what happened last season. FAU QB Smith is capable of a garbage TD late against Nebraska reserves. Also, not the best chalk situation with a new QB starting his first game and laying 3 touchdowns.

 

[nd2000]

Proman,

You present some legitimate points, and i considered those prior to posting. If you are not familiar with my posts though, I would like to tell you that i almost never pick obvious favorites for my chalk play of the week. It is always a favorite that has plenty of doubt surrounding the potential to cover. But, that's how i get line value.

The differential in offensive/defensive line talent in this ballgame is more deserving of a game in the -35 to -40 range, so we are easily compensated for having to gamble a little bit with the unknown at QB for Nebraska.

As far as Schnellenberger is concerned, i cannot ignore his history of mailing these games in despite the fact that i'm sure that he would want to get his team off to a good start. Once he sees how bad his team gets dominated in the trenches, he'll call off the dogs. A late garbage TD is always a possibility, but keep in mind that FAU's starters may not be in the game in the second half much when Howard raises the white flag.

 

[sdf]

> 3. Last year FAU went to Texas for the first game of the year, and the mismatch in the trenches was a complete joke, and that was a much better FAU team on paper. Even though Nebraska has inexperience at the QB position, it will not matter in this contest.


so Nebraska = Texas?

 

[nd2000]

> 3. Last year FAU went to Texas for the first game of the year, and the mismatch in the trenches was a complete joke, and that was a much better FAU team on paper. Even though Nebraska has inexperience at the QB position, it will not matter in this contest.


so Nebraska = Texas?

Not at all, but the mismatch in the trenches will be similar, trust me.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

This is a good situation for Nebraska, as they are 4-0 in home openers ATS, however Florida Atlantic is 2-2 as away dogs in their openers, so the alleged history of mailing the first game of the season simply does not hold water. This should be an easy cover for Nebraska, but so should have San Jose State been last year. Let's see where the line goes on this one. It is down to 20 1/2 at many books. You also may want to watch out for a back door cover. Nebraska is thin, especially along the defensive front line and at LB, so the starters will be yanked out of there as soon as the game gets out of hand.

 

[SoonerBS]

It would definitely help Nebraska's chances if Smellyburger would start talking amck like he did in the preseason last year about Texas. That went over real well in the Texas lockeroom and I'm sure it would do the same in Nebraska's.

 

[Proman]

Proman,

You present some legitimate points, and i considered those prior to posting. If you are not familiar with my posts though, I would like to tell you that i almost never pick obvious favorites for my chalk play of the week. It is always a favorite that has plenty of doubt surrounding the potential to cover. But, that's how i get line value.

The differential in offensive/defensive line talent in this ballgame is more deserving of a game in the -35 to -40 range, so we are easily compensated for having to gamble a little bit with the unknown at QB for Nebraska.

As far as Schnellenberger is concerned, i cannot ignore his history of mailing these games in despite the fact that i'm sure that he would want to get his team off to a good start. Once he sees how bad his team gets dominated in the trenches, he'll call off the dogs. A late garbage TD is always a possibility, but keep in mind that FAU's starters may not be in the game in the second half much when Howard raises the white flag.

ND,

Appreciate your take. This board is all about sharing opinions. I am leaning to FAU. Will wait to see if the line jumps. I am always a little nervous when I select a vastly inferior team in just about all situations. I have experienced that betting the "Feeble" is normally a dicey situation.

 

[GoSooners]

At -21 or less I believe that Nebraska is definitely the right side here. FAU had one of the worst rushing defenses in the country last season. And now return only 3 starters from that defense. Which is usually a double whammy against you in college football. FAU has never had success playing BCS conference teams on the road. Especially the ones coming off a winning season. FAU is 1-11-1 ATS in the last 5 years in true road games against BCS conference teams! Nebraska will run all day and night on this team. Rusty Smith will never see the field. Howard Smellyburger= Paycheck Whore

 

[nd2000]

FAU is 1-11-1 ATS in the last 5 years in true road games against BCS conference teams!

This stat does not surprise me in the least, and is all the proof you need to realize that Schnelly is mailing it in. FAU always seems to play below Vegas expectations in these ball games.

 

[jimmymo]

I would like to tell you that i almost never pick obvious favorites for my chalk play of the week. It is always a favorite that has plenty of doubt surrounding the potential to cover. But, that's how i get line value.

Ahh, the fraud that is Rusty Smith....this one I like very much...GL this year ND.

 

[nd2000]

Ahh, the fraud that is Rusty Smith....this one I like very much...GL this year ND.

Thanks, U2....

 

[nd2000]

***Underdog Play of the Week***

Ohio +4 over UCONN - I like UCONN to win this game straight up.

 

[nd2000]

UTEP -8 over Buffalo - I like UTEP here. Better QB, better at the line of scrimmage, and homefield edge. Not the chalk play of the week, but a good play nonetheless.....

 

[nd2000]

Ohio +4 over UCONN - I like UCONN to win this game straight up.

Oooops...i meant to say Ohio should win this game straight up. Sorry, was typing too fast...

 

[doogieboy]

I recall your chalk POW LY were really solid. Are as confident in your UD POW. I haven;t looked into that game yet.
GL

 

[truguru]

Ohio +4 over UCONN - I like UCONN to win this game straight up.

agree with this remark bingo!

 

[gynecologist]

GL bud.

 

[nd2000]

I recall your chalk POW LY were really solid. Are as confident in your UD POW. I haven;t looked into that game yet.
GL

Yes, i am a very disciplined bettor. I don't bet on that many games, so the ones i do pull the trigger on i have a lot of confidence in...

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL nd2000...