Nd2000-week 3

[nd2000]

CHALK POW YTD: 1-1
UNDERDOG POW YTD: 0-2

***CHALK PLAY OF THE WEEK***

Oklahoma State -32 over Rice

This game just reeks of a final in the neighborhood of 63-10. Rice has been pounded by both UAB and Texas Tech, both teams which are weaker than Okie State. I expect Gundy to run up the score here to somewhat atone for last week's disaster.

 

[bellyputter]

If the Ok St coaches had their way, Robinson would only play the first half. Their depth needs snaps sooner than later because of early season casualties. This game could get sloppy in the fourth quarter. Ok St is basically getting ready for Tex A&M on Oct. 10. Don't ever confuse Gundy with Leach as far as running up the score. Good Luck

 

[Cheez]

I believe Gundy will run up the score so they can get some more points in the ranking after losing last week. They have to impress the voters this week.

 

[nd2000]

***Underdog Play of the Week***

Marshall +3 over Bowling green

I have a feeling that Vegas doesn't think a whole heck of a lot of Bowling Green. In week one, they made them 7 point home dogs to a Sun Belt squad. In week two, they made them three touchdown dogs to a rebuilding Mizzou team in an letdown spot. Now they go on the road as a favorite to face a team that i had slightly ahead of BG at the end of last season. Bowling Green reeks of a team that will be a money burner as road chalk. I'm taking the points here. Marshall will be focused. They need a win with their coach on a hot seat.<!-- / message -->

 

[nd2000]

Other plays:

Louisville +14 over Kentucky.

This is too high. In week one, UK was favored over Miami, OH by the exact same margin. But, Miami, OH is the very worst team in the FBS this year. Louisville is roughly 20 points stronger than them. Louisville underachieved last season and I expect them to be stronger this season. Kentucky has very mediocre personnel and when you start asking them to blow teams out, it will get very difficult for them to cover games.

 

[nd2000]

Eastern Michigan +24.5 over Michigan

I don't see Michigan coming to play their best game here after the euphoria of upsetting ND last week. A hangover is highly possible with a team this young who is not used to success. Eastern Michigan has their best offense in years, and the UM defense is average for the Big Ten. I think EMU can score enough to slide under the number in what assuredly will not be the Wolverines A game by any stretch of the imagination. Even if EMU gives up 40, they can cover with a mere 17 points. This is another case in point where you are asking for trouble if you expect a middle of the pack BCS team to start covering huge spreads against teams that are capable of scoring.

 

[nd2000]

Nevada -3 over Colorado State

I still feel that Colorado State has one of the worst front sevens in all of the FBS despite beating Colorado (win does not look very good now after watching Toledo hammer the Buffs). They have no chance to stop the pistol offense of Nevada. I like Nevada by double digits here.<!-- / message -->

 

[nd2000]

Oklahoma -16 over Tulsa

Oklahoma annhilates out of conference competition in Norman. This will be no different. Tulsa simply does not have the manpower to avoid getting dominated in this ball game.
<!-- / message -->

 

[nd2000]

Kent State +3 over Iowa State

I was puzzled to see a lot of love last week for iowa state at home against iowa. Iowa State has horrible personnel and is in the midst of adjusting to new schemes on both sides of the ball. They are a mess right now. Kent State is not any good either, but neither was Toledo, and they blasted a weak Big 12 team as a home dog last week. I think it will happen again. I like the Flashes straight up here.

 

[nd2000]

Army -7.5 over Ball State

Until further notice, Ball State is a perma-fade (ie. a team that sucks and vegas is slow to catch up to how bad they really are). They were manhandled by lowly North Texas at home. To make matters worse, they were whipped by FBS New Hampshire last week at home. They gained only 127 yards in the entire game. How pathetic. On top of it all, i think Army is underrated this year. So far, they have outgained foes 347-231 on the season (EMU & Duke). Both these teams are better than Ball State. I like the Cadets by two touchdowns at home.

 

[nd2000]

Notre Dame -10 over Michigan State

I have a feeling that good old Sparty might be much weaker this year than most anticipated. Last week's loss at home vs. CMU was quite an eye opener. Not only did they lose the game, they were outgained by over 100 yards to a team that was just coming off a beatdown at the hands of a mid level pac-10 in Arizona. Both Floyd and Armando Allen are expected to play. Notre Dame's defense is highly suspect, but against a traditional type offense like Michigan State, they will fair much better, especially since Sparty doesn't have many playmakers to hurt them.<!-- / message -->

 

[nd2000]

Washington +20.5 over Southern Cal

There are a lot of things going against Southern Cal here. They are coming off a big national TV game vs. OSU and freshman Barkley is hurting. Also, Washington is obviously the most improved team in the country and Sarkisian will have his troops geeked for this contest against his old team. Southern Cal, as good as they are, often fails to cover huge spreads in conference road games. I think the trend continues here.

That's all and good luck to everyone this weekend. Lord knows i could use some.<!-- / message -->

 

[AlwaysKeen]

nd2000,

even without Bradford and Grisham you really think OU can "destroy" Tulsa?...hmmm, I just don't see it like that...GL this week...

 

[GoSooners]

nd...I'm thinking the same way as you with Louisville, Marshall, Nevada and UW...I actually like the under in the Tulsa/OU game more than a side. I think OU's defense shuts Tulsa down.

 

[nd2000]

nd2000,

even without Bradford and Grisham you really think OU can "destroy" Tulsa?...hmmm, I just don't see it like that...GL this week...

Yes i do. First, OU has one of the best defenses in the entire country. And second, I had Tulsa listed as a fade coming into this season. I did not feel they would be anywhere near as good as last season. They have started off by playing arguably two of the worst teams in all of the FBS in Tulane and New Mexico, so it looks like they have not missed a beat. The Tulane game sticks out to me. They did not beat Tulane as convicingly as the final score indicated. I just feel that Tulsa is the fade here.

Another thing came to mind when i looked at this game. Two seasons ago, OU went to Tulsa and was laying 24 points or so. Many people thought that Tulsa was great value getting so many points with their offense and playing at home. OU won by 40. The difference in personnel at the line of scrimmage was simply laughable. It was a complete manhandling. While the players are mostly different faces now, the quality of athletes certainly are not. I would argue that OU has a better defense than that team, and i don't think that Tulsa's team this year is much stronger than their '07 squad. This game screams 49-17 to me. Just my two cents.

Best of luck to you this weekend sir. I like reading your posts. They are very well thought out all the time.

 

[gynecologist]

Is Oklahoma's offense good enough to be giving 16 though?? Thats my question..

 

[nd2000]

Is Oklahoma's offense good enough to be giving 16 though?? Thats my question..

I think they can get 42 points in this game. OU still has sick running backs and an offensive line more than capable of pushing Tulsa around. Plus, i can see the OU defense wreaking a lot of havoc and forcing turnovers.

 

[nd2000]

Purdue -13 over Northern Illinois

I like what i have seen from Purdue so far this season. They have a suprising amount of speed on offense. Purdue is definitely an underrated team right now and in the category of a "play on" team. Purdue's defense should be better than they have shown so far and they should be able to have a good day against a stagnant/weak Northern Illinois offense. I like the Boilers by 20+ despite the lookahead factor to next week when ND comes to town.

 

[nd2000]

Was on the fence about this play earlier, but line movement and the U's play tonight closed the deal:

Florida State+8 over BYU

Watching the U dismantle GT tonight was quite impressive. Miami, FL is for real. Now, i do realize that GT is overrated, as i explained in my Clemson pick last week, but still, you can tell that Miami is a strong team. Florida State went toe to toe with them in week one. I would basically throw out that performance last week vs. Jacksonville State. There was zero motivation there after the painful loss to the U in week one. I really like the overall speed of FSU, and i'm not sold on BYU being a legit top 10 team just yet. After all, they were 22 point underdogs to OU in week one, so i have a feeling that Vegas oddsmakers are not completely in love with their personnel. Would FSU been that big of a dog to OU in week one?? I kinda doubt it, probably more like +17. Think there is a lot of line value here on Florida State as people have suddenly fallen in love with BYU and driven the line a full 7 points higher than the preseason line of BYU -1 for this game.

 

[gynecologist]

Good line man