NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

NCAAF systems really kick in weeks 3+ but a few that popped up for week 1 so far. I won't be able to post these early week ones as I am doing MLB but I can give you a pretty good idea of parameters and recent winning %

1) First is to back DD favs (10.5-21) in first 3 weeks of year that won at least 4 of final 5 games in previous season and 80%+ the season before that. So we're looking for favs of 10.5-21, ended last year great, and had a huge 2011. week one it is PLAY ON south carolina (watch line though) and PLAY ON florida state. historically 75% (USCe was in same spot week 1 last year vs UNC, FSU was in same spot week 1 vs Pitt)

2) Second one is backing favs week 1-3 in that same spread range, 10.5-21, that return at least 5 defensive starters and beat teams by at least 7ppg last year while winning final 3 or more games of season. against PLAY ON south carolina (watch line) and PLAY ON florida state. historically 72% (USCe was in this spot game 1 vs UNC last year)

3) Third one is playing against small road favorite of 3.5-10 that closed out regular season with 3+ straight wins but lost bowl game and playing winning team from last year (with a few other conditions in there). historically 73% ... this would be PLAY ON Western Kentucky

4) a week 1-3 first half play is playing home teams vs 1H line that won at least 5 straight to end last season and won at least 80% of their games the previous year. Again, USCe was in this spot last year and covered and are in it again in 2014. I believe USCe and FSU are the only two teams to end 2013 with 5+ wins and also win 80%+ in 2012 so this would be a play on 1H South Carolina vs aTm, ECU, and UGA and FSU in 1H vs Citadel. 73% winner historically

.... just stuff to use with your regular capping. might have some more up later this week but heading to ATL so won't have a lot of computer time WED-SUN

 

[rolltide]

one that has no active games for week 1 is to play on small dogs, 3.5-10, in first 3 weeks if they have at least 6 more returning starters than opponent. you can pull the games down each week using this query... week<=3 and season=2014 and D and 3<line<10.5
- i can't find any of the week 1 dogs that have that big of a disparity in returning starters. michigan is a possibility for week 2 but i'll have to dive into ND's returning starters post-suspensions. #'s i have are pre-suspensions. If someone has actual returning starters, MICH vs ND, for 2014 please post

 

[MackDonald]

Good "stuff" Tide......Although I've never subscribed to "systems" over the years per-say when sports betting, early season college football does offer some well-documented evidence that the first three-weeks does gives the bettor some improved odds over the odds-makers....i.e. (some of the "patterns" you mentioned
in your post. They too, (the bookmakers) are trying to sort things out during the early weeks of the new season.

Thank you this insight and, best of luck this year.

 

[rolltide]

oppose game 1 home favs of 8 or more in a non-conference game if they have a conference game on deck

game number = 1 and not C and HF and P:W and n:C and line <= -8
SU: 68-8-0 (17.11, 89.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 26-50-0 (-3.14, 34.2%) avg line: -20.2 +6: 39-33-4 (54.2%) -6: 17-57-2 (23.0%) +10: 50-24-2 (67.6%) -10: 10-64-2 (13.5%) O/U: 7-7-0 (1.18, 50.0%) avg total: 51.0 +6: 4-10-0 (28.6%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 4-10-0 (28.6%) -10: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.2 197.4 27.1 17.3 229.5 1.2 10.5 10.1 7.6 5.7 31.8 Opp 33.3 104.3 33.0 18.8 187.7 1.5 2.3 5.8 4.2 4.0 14.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Aug 30, 2014 Saturday 1 2014 USC FRES home -21.5 58.0 Aug 28, 2014 Thursday 1 2014 VAN TEM home -13.5 51.0

 

[alkimyst]

Great stuff. Love your baseball info.

Best of luck.

 

[bobbyjones2]

Makes me more confident in my temple play.

Thanks for posting sir.

 

[2boocooinnevada]

Glad to see your still on here rolltide. I used to post some college basketball on pops69 thread. Got some great stuff from both of you looks like he last posted in February hope he is doing well. Best of luck

 

[pghpounder]

Rolltide, Kind of an off topic question but why do you abbreviate S. Carolina as USCe? Just asking for my own education. Is that just your way of differentiating from USC aka South California?
Sorry for off topic question I was just curious.
Thanks for your hard work and sharing

 

[HottyToddy]

USCe= USC East

 

[pghpounder]

USCe= USC East

Ok...that makes complete sense. As much college football I watch and as much as I follow I had no idea. Like the saying goes. We learn something new everyday.

Thank you HottyToddy!! &#55357;&#56397;&#55357;&#56397;

 

[rolltide]

several sharp "game one" betting tactics to put in your toolbox...

1) teams that lost SU as big favs in their bowl games always come out strong in game 1 of following season if they're HC is intact. this weekend looking for Bama, the Dawgs, and Baylor to roll although Baylor been bet up so much you can't possibly think to keep chasing that number
2) new HC that are laying DD in week 1 make for terrible big favorites. give some thought to opposing teams like vandy, u dub, and USCw. two of them coincide with a system above...
3) bad teams with a new HC are about the worst thing you can bet in week 1. there's a reason they were terrible LY and with new coach and systems it's not possible to just turn it around overnight. my old school has swapped from being dog to fav but I can't bet against them as a bunch of us are getting together here in ATL before the tide game to watch them play troy. teams like uab, umass, wake, and a few others should be avoided. last year, bad teams with a new HC covered 33% of their initial games. 7 teams fit the mold in 2014


note...line drop in USCe...

 

[HottyToddy]

No problem pgh... I didn't have a clue for a while myself bud

 

[Steiner69eR]

^^Thanks Roll. Can't believe it's here already! Glad to catch your insight this morning before this gets bumped to page 3 after the circus comes to town with 100* GOY predictions.

 

[dg84]

Just curious what the parameters are to identify a "bad" team? Would it be 4-8, 3-9 or just a team with a losing record that switched coaches? Not trying to be difficult, but the word bad is somewhat subjective. Thanks & GL this year!

 

[HottyToddy]

RT hope all is well buddy. Good luck!

 

[rolltide]

Just curious what the parameters are to identify a "bad" team? Would it be 4-8, 3-9 or just a team with a losing record that switched coaches? Not trying to be difficult, but the word bad is somewhat subjective. Thanks & GL this year!

4 or less wins is the parameter

 

[GoSooners]

Not a system, but here are a few first week factoids I pulled from my website you may find interesting:






[h=1] College Football 2014 Week 1 Factoids [/h]Posted by Josh Doust on Aug 19, 2014 in Betting on College Football, Betting Resources | 0 comments

Below are some college football week 1 factoids. All factoids go back the past 9 seasons unless otherwise noted. I only show wins and losses and remove ties and unlined games where records are shown. If you want to see another stat/record, leave a comment with what you want to see. As long as I can get what you request from my database, I’ll continue to add to the list below. Enjoy.

1. Favorites have gone 260-250 ATS.
2. Home teams have gone 239-242 ATS.
3. Teams that win the turnover battle are 238-114 ATS (67.61%).
4. Nick Saban (Alabama) is 6-0 ATS since 2008.
5. Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) is 6-2 ATS.
6. Rick StockStill (MTSU) is 1-7 ATS.
7. Texas Tech is the only team to average over 400 yards passing (402.9 yds/game).
8. Texas and Nebraska have scored the most offensive touchdowns with 53 and 50, respectively.
9. Clemson has scored the most special teams’ touchdowns with 5.
10. East Carolina and Arkansas State have each went 7-1 ATS
11. Wake Forest is 1-8 ATS.
12. Wake Forest has held the ball longer than any other team averaging 33 minutes and 10 seconds per game.
13. Tailing line moves of 2 points or more is 65-57 ATS (53.28%).
14. Underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 68-61 ATS (52.71%).
15. Underdogs of 7.5-14 points have gone 37-47 ATS (44.05%).
16. Florida State and Colorado State have sacked QBs 33 times each.
17. Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio) have each thrown 16 interceptions #MACtion.
18. Ball State has only had 2 interceptions thrown #MACtion.
19. Arizona State’s average margin of victory is 38.75.
20. Arizona State’s average margin of cover is 15.10.
21. LSU games have went over the total 7 out of 7 lined games.
22. Games with totals of 45 or fewer points have went over 69 times vs 55 unders (55.65%).
23. Games with totals of 65 or more points have went over 18 times vs 14 unders (56.25%).
24. Games with totals between 45 and 65 have went under 356 times vs 306 overs (53.78%).
25. 9 games have been decided ATS in the final minute of play.
26. 72 games have been decided ATS in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter.
27. The lowest scoring game was on 9/4/2010 when Kansas lost to North Dakota State 6-3.
28. The highest scoring game was last season’s game between Indiana and Indiana State who combined to score 108 points.
29. Oklahoma State is the only team to score 80 or more (84 on 9/1/2012).
30. Of the games FBS underdogs have covered the spread, 39.67% have won straight up as well.

 

[sendacash]

Just curious what the parameters are to identify a "bad" team? Would it be 4-8, 3-9 or just a team with a losing record that switched coaches? Not trying to be difficult, but the word bad is somewhat subjective. Thanks & GL this year!

Think "Purdue" bad last from year or "Colorado" bad from the year before.

 

[rolltide]

one that has no active games for week 1 is to play on small dogs, 3.5-10, in first 3 weeks if they have at least 6 more returning starters than opponent. you can pull the games down each week using this query... week<=3 and season=2014 and D and 3<line<10.5
- i can't find any of the week 1 dogs that have that big of a disparity in returning starters. michigan is a possibility for week 2 but i'll have to dive into ND's returning starters post-suspensions. #'s i have are pre-suspensions. If someone has actual returning starters, MICH vs ND, for 2014 please post

I have Michigan at 15 returning starters and had Notre Dame with 11 but that included Russell, Daniels, and Williams who are suspended which would leave UM with a 7 returning starter differential...add in Golson and that becomes 6 so it is right at the number needed to qualify for this perfect trend. i'm inclined to pass

 

[rolltide]

3) bad teams with a new HC are about the worst thing you can bet in week 1. there's a reason they were terrible LY and with new coach and systems it's not possible to just turn it around overnight. my old school has swapped from being dog to fav but I can't bet against them as a bunch of us are getting together here in ATL before the tide game to watch them play troy. teams like uab, umass, wake, and a few others should be avoided. last year, bad teams with a new HC covered 33% of their initial games. 7 teams fit the mold in 2014

only 2 of the 6 bad teams with a new coach covered last week, my UAB Blazers and miami oh. Others were duds... Uconn, Wake, UMASS, and one other i'm forgetting. Army is the last team to qualify.... they're laying points to Buffalo.

luckily i was with a UAB group so didnt oppose them