NCAA (Week 3)

[United]

1 unit: 1-5 -4.40
2 unit: 4-2 +3.60

overall: 5-7 -.80


Just played these. Will give thoughts and reasons as the week beats on.

#104 Cincy +8 -105 (1)
#118 Louisville +2 -110 (1)
#140 Georgia T -6 -110 (1)
#158 Texas T -10 1/2 -110 (1)
#191 Ohio St -3 -105 (1)

#148 Virginia T -5 1/2 -110 (2)
#170 BYU +3 -110 (2)
#186 Notre Dame under 52 1/2 -110 (2)

good luck everyone

 

[xxthevillexx]

long time no see United hope all is good, and BOL

 

[Swalker]

Love the ville United!

 

[StevieRay]

Good luck this week coach. Hope all is well

 

[indiana]

United............appreciate the early thought's..........BOL with all your action this week..........indy

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck United!

 

[KingEleven]

Bol u!

 

[JABATHAHUT]

GL United

 

[United]

Houston @ Cincy +8 (1)

Both teams stand at 2-0 and 1-1 ats after two weeks into the season. No doubt the Houston win over Oklahoma (38-20) was big. They followed it up with a 42-0 w over Lamar. (didn't even know they had a football team). This will be Houston's first road game. Cincy won at Purdue 38-20 last week and beat Tenn Martin 28-7 in week one. So they haven't really been tested, although Purdue at home is really never easy. You can just ask some of the big 10 teams about going there to play.

All stats aside for this one. I like Cincy. especially at home with more than a td spot vs a team that they have had very good success against in the series.

in the last 10 games in this series: Cincy are 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 ats with a average score advantage 34.9 to 28.1 (+7), Either way you take this, main point I'm betting is that it's too many points imo to give and take a chance on.

Houston is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati (like it)
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati (Cincy has proven very tough in this series)
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati (I believe Cincy is home and a 8 point dog thanks to Houston W over Oklahoma)
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati (I'll take my chances with the 2 score spot)

I may lose and Houston could put it to them as that's the way games play out sometimes, but I feel like past % are definitely on my side and it's not like this Cincy program sucks.

good luck

 

[United]

Florida St @ Louisville +2 (1)

Both teams stand a 2-0 and Louis is 2-0 ats and Fl St 1-1 ats after two weeks into the season. Florida St two wins at home over Mississippi 45-34 and Charleston S 52-8. Louis opened up pounding Charlotte 70-14 and at Cuse 62-28. It's fair to say they both played a cupcake and boosted offensive stats. It looks like both teams can move the ball.

comparisons:

Florida St are 27th in total offense at 509 a game.
Louis are 1st in total offense at 754 a game.

FS are 78th in rushing yards at 165 a game.
Louis are 3rd in rushing yards at 343 a game.

FS are 15th in passing offense at 344 a game.
Louis are 5th in passing offense at 411 a game.

Both teams giving up 21 ppg on D, Louisville D are 3rd in the red zone while Florida St are 93rd.
Louisville D leads in every stat in the smart chart and are tied with the 21 ppg.

I really like how hyped up Florida St are and are a fav. I think they should be a 3 point dog on the road in this game. This is Petrino's 3rd year back at Louisville and he is known for offense and the 9 returning starters are pretty dam good. QB Jackson can both pass and run and when opponents try to stop on or the other they get burned.

Florida St frosh qb Francois is a good one. I was impressed by his demeanor and the way he led Florida St back on offense on the half of the Mississippi game. This will be an even bigger test on the road in a hostile environment. Louis will get their points and where Mississippi was stopped by Florida St in the 2nd half I don't think Louis will be stopped.

I could be wrong and Florida St could take them down. I just like the home team in this kind of game and especially when they are labeled the dog.


Vandy @ Georgia T -6 (1)

Vandy at 1-1 and 1-1 ats. GT at 2-0 and 0-1 ats. Both teams imo are going to struggle this year. Vanderbilt is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road. Even though GT offense has definitely slowed down from seasons past, I still think Vandy will struggle to stop the run game. In the meantime the GT defense has really shown up to play in their first two games of the year only giving up 12 ppg. Vandy D not far behind at 18 ppg. A GT win would match their total wins from last years dismal 3-9 record. If they don't get it in this game it may be awhile before they do. So taking another home team with a very reasonable spread and counting on them to take care of business at home. And of course with Coach Johnson on my side I expect 4th down conversions. (rush with his calls)

LA T @ Texas T -10 1/2 (1)

Both teams at 1-1 and 1-1 ats. I like to look closely at teams that have come off a tough loss on the road and who are at home the next game. Especially teams like Texas Tech who can light it up. They are scoring 62 ppg. They have the #2 ranked total offense so far at 685 ypg. And they have they the #1 ranked passing offense averaging 585 ypg. Malhomes has already thrown 9 td passes. LT will give them a game. After all they gave Ark a game only losing by a point at Arky. I just like this team at home in this game and know they will score plenty of points. 10 out of their last 11 home games have gone over the total. Might be worth a play in itself.

Ohio St -3 @ Oklahoma (1)

Ohio St at 2-0 and 2-0 ats.
Oklahoma at 1-1 and 0-2 ats.

Ohio St has started the season on fire. They thumped Bowling Green 77-10 and Tulsa 46-3. They were 12-1 last year. Yet they only returned 3 starters on offense and 3 on def and look at what they are doing to teams so far this season. Urban Meyer feels the pressure of (Harbaugh) and the Michigan team. It's a competition once again in the big 10 between the big 2. And I'm sure that the old timers remember how the rose bowl almost always came down to the Michigan Ohio St game all the time. Harbaugh is proving a point and is on a mission. Players will want to come to Michigan and play football once again. Urban is not stupid. He knows this and now more than ever wants to crunch teams and get back into the championship. What does all of this have to do with the Oklahoma game? Not a dam thing! Oklahoma is at home where they should never be a dog if their program is to be a top notch program year in and out. Yet they are a dog. They did give up 33 points to Houston and 17 to ULM. That does not bold well when the team they play next is trying to keep up with the Jones (Michigan) Ohio State scoring 62.5 ppg and only giving up 6.5 ppg Oklahoma scoring 41 ppg and giving up 25 ppg.

Ohio State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games (I'll give the 3)

I'm not going to look any farther into this game as I truly feel like Ohio St is the better team. I'm only betting a (1) because Oklahoma will give it all they got and if they can give a stellar effort they could pull it off. We see it happen numerous times every year. They are called upsets or great games.


The rest later as I need a break from typing.

 

[MGMan]

Hey good luck United, let's have a good long season of filling the bankroll.

 

[Stickee]

Good luck U!

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight

 

[United]

#104 Cincy +8 -105 (1)
#118 Louisville +2 -110 (1)
#140 Georgia T -6 -110 (1)
#158 Texas T -10 1/2 -110 (1)
#191 Ohio St -3 -105 (1)

#148 Virginia T -5 1/2 -110 (2)
#170 BYU +3 -110 (2)
#186 Notre Dame under 52 1/2 -110 (2)

add:

2nd half: Houston -5 1/2 -110 (1)

 

[United]

BC @ VT -5 1/2 (2)

Both teams at 1-1 and BC 2-0 ats and VT 0-2 ats. BC was 3-9 last year and 0-7 in conf play. They are only scoring 20 ppg and I just can't see how they hang around and cover this on the road. VT could easily be 2-0 but sort of blew it with that one point loss against Tenn. They return a bunch of starters on offense and hopefully they can score enough points against the stingy BC Def that have only given up 12 ppg.

Boston College is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games (they finally got a W last week against Mass)
Virginia Tech is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Boston College (just feel this BC team will not be able to score enough on the road and can see VT forcing a really big TO in this game)

New coach Fuente will be all fired up in his first big home game against a conf opponent. I think VT will get at least a 10 point win.


UCLA @ BYU +3 (2)

Both teams at 1-1 while UCLA 0-2 ats and BYU 2-0 ats. UCLA lost on the road to A & M 31-24 and beat UNLV 42-21. I'm not really sure how good they can be. They sjust haven't impressed me so far this young season. They are giving up quite a few points at 26 per game. This BYU team won at Zona by 2 and lost at Utah by 1. The coach went for two at the end. Like it or not, (I didn't) he gets really fired yp on the sidelines and the players seem to feed off his enthusiasm. BYU is physical and their QB Hill has been around an eternity. He can pass and run and not afraid of contact. BYU lost this game last year at UCLA 24-23. I don't see them losing this game at home. It's their opener. It will be nuts. BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home. UCLA is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games and it always seems like their lines are inflated. I have this game lined at BYU -4. BYU it is for me.


Mich St @ Notre Dame under 52 1/2 (2)

Mich ST scoring 28 ppg and giving up 13 ppg.
ND scoring 43 ppg and giving up 30 ppg.

Mich St offense has always ate up a lot of clock on drives. They averaged 29.8 ppg last year. They lost QB Connor Cook and 3 offensive linemen along with their two best wr. Points should be harder to come by this year. Notre Dame D has been just awful and has been one of the major focuses for the Irish in practice this week. I really do loo for them to step it up. The Irish offense has been tough at 43 ppg and that's where I'm hoping the Mich St D can slow them down some.

Mich ST Def held team 83 yards below their team average last season.

Mich St held Bama, Oregon, Ohio St, Michigan and Iowa to 95.4 ypg average. Those 5 teams combined averaged 221.4 ypg.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Michigan State's last 9 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame (Road)

Notre Dame is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Michigan State (what does this have to do with the under?) Simply means the Irish have struggled scoring points in this series at home.

 

[United]

#104 Cincy +8 -105 (1) L
#118 Louisville +2 -110 (1)
#140 Georgia T -6 -110 (1)
#158 Texas T -10 1/2 -110 (1)
#191 Ohio St -3 -105 (1)

#148 Virginia T -5 1/2 -110 (2)
#170 BYU +3 -110 (2)
#186 Notre Dame under 52 1/2 -110 (2)

add:

2nd half: Houston -5 1/2 -110 (1) W

add:

SDS -11 -110 (2) one of the best rb's in foots and a down year for NI
Wash St -27 (2) will get ugly as WS will score often
Stanford +8 1/2 (1) I'll take the 2 score spot in this rivalry game.

 

[Swalker]

Love those adds United, will be tailing...good luck tomorrow!

 

[r.a.]

#104 Cincy +8 -105 (1) L
#118 Louisville +2 -110 (1)
#140 Georgia T -6 -110 (1)
#158 Texas T -10 1/2 -110 (1)
#191 Ohio St -3 -105 (1)

#148 Virginia T -5 1/2 -110 (2)
#170 BYU +3 -110 (2)
#186 Notre Dame under 52 1/2 -110 (2)

add:

2nd half: Houston -5 1/2 -110 (1) W

add:

SDS -11 -110 (2) one of the best rb's in foots and a down year for NI
Wash St -27 (2) will get ugly as WS will score often
Stanford +8 1/2 (1) I'll take the 2 score spot in this rivalry game.

Think you meant Stanford -8 1/2 ... bol this week.

 

[indiana]

United.............good looking card buddy............BOL with your Sat. action..........indy

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today my friend