I like ECU in tonight's game. Stats are all pointing to Houston, and my original number had Houston by about 12. When line opened at 4 and then was pushed down pretty heavily, I had to go with the flow and take ECU +2. I look for both teams to establish a running game and try to work the pass from that. Home dog in a national tv game has value most of the time.
Once this line dropped below 3, Houston had no value to me. This is a PK game in all reality. 0-4 team is the way to go in a spot like this.
Last week Nebraska was a big road favorite and the line was jumping up from the open. The public followed the line and created a nightmare for the books. This week I don't see the same thing happening. Public likes Houston, but the line is dropping towards ECU and more people are jumping on Cougar High. Vegas will take the cash this time (a very classic set-up). Good luck to you.