Auburn @ Vandy -5
Auburn at 10-3 and 7-4 ats scoring 80.4 ppg giving up 73.9 ppg for a diff of 6.5
Vandy at 7-6 and 5-6 ats scoring 72.9 ppg giving up 70.0 ppg for a diff of 2.9
Diff of 3.6 in fav of Aub, Vandy worth 5 on that home court, Vandy could be -2 or 3, but yet a line of -5.
After further investigation I understand why it's at -5.
Auburn is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road (different team on the road)
Auburn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt (good)
Auburn is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
(better)
Best: check this out
Auburn 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ats last 10 in this series with average score 58.5 ppg
Vanderbilt 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ats last 10 in this series scoring at 73.3 ppg
Vandy margins of 29 and 18 last year. 12 and 8 year before. 7 -12 year before that.
So if Tenn gets it done then so be it.
Vandy shooting ft's at 78.7 % and that is big.
Aub hitting ft's at 69.2% and lower than that on the road.
Penn St @ Michigan over 142 1/2
Penn St at 9-6 and 7-5 ats scoring 74.3 ppg giving up 70.3 ppg for a diff of 4.1
Mich at 10-4 and 4-7 ats scoring 75.2 ppg giving up 62 .6 ppg for a diff of 12.6
Scores between both teams average to 141.2 so total line is pretty much on spot.
Penn St shooting 41.4% fg and 77.6% ft and 34.7 form 3 pt land
Mich shooting 46.9% fg and 79.6% ft and 37.5% from 3 pt land.
Tells me a lot of ft's should be made with the clock stopped and that helps the over.
Mich has attempted 365 3's and hit 137 for a average make of 9.8 a game.
Penn has attempted 314 and hit 109 for a average of 7.3 a game.
Penn St coach loves the transition and likes to speed up the game. Michigan has players out there who can hit big shot and their offense gets them a lot of 3's.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Michigan (like it)
fav trend of the game: the over is 9-1 last 10 in this series
Louisville @ Notre Dame +2 1/2
Louis at 12-2 and 9-3 ats scoring 76.1 ppg giving up 60.4 ppg for a diff of 15.7
Notre Dame at 12-2 and 4-3-1 ats scoring 83.2 ppg giving up 66.2 ppg for a diff of 17.0
Diff of 1.3 in fav of ND, ND worth 5 at home, ND should be the fav by at least 5-7 points from the numbers. Ok, so their dogs at home. Should be even more fuel to the fire at home.
I like the Irish at home for so many reasons that I don't know where to start.
They have 4 starters averaging DD's.
Colson at 16.6 ppg and 10.5 rebs shooting 49.7% fg and a amazing 90.9% ft for a post
Beachem at 14.9 ppg and 80% ft line and 35% from 3 pt alnd
Vasturia at 14.4 ppg and 92.7% from the ft line and 43% from 3 pt land
Farrell at 13.4 ppg and 93.3% from the ft line.
Who you going to foul? Such a advantage when you entire team shoots well from behind the arc and nails the ft's at a sizzling 84.1 as a team. And at crunch time that ball is going to be in one of those 4 players hands.
And did I mention that they only turn it over on a average of 9 a game.
Louis turning it over at 12 a game.
Obviously Louis has a nice team and a awesome starting 5 themselves.
They just don't shoot the ball like the Irish do.
Louis at 69% form the ft line and 33.1% from 3 pt land.
Louis is 9-3 ats (8-1 at home) (1-2 away), this will be a tough road game for them.
Louisville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame
ND won both meetings last year by 5 and 12 points so they will compete in this game. They would have to completely fall apart.
ND losses at Nova by (8) if you watched that game ND blew it in the 2nd half, fouls at the end as the gaem was really closer than the final score, and then they lost on a neutral to OPrdue by 5 after leading most of the game. (melt down)
Louis losses at Baylor (3) and at home to Virginia by 8.
This should be one heck of a game.
WV @ Pitt under 126 1/2
Virginia at 11-2 and 8-4 ats scoring 68.2 ppg giving up 48.6 ppg for a diff of 19.6
Pitt at 11-3 and 4-8-2 ats scoring 81.9 ppg giving up 75.8 ppg for a diff of 6.1
6 points is a lot to give a home team in conf play especially when that home team is scoring 81.9 ppg. Their must be reasons why the large spot. Which team is going to control the tempo. A high scoring Pitt team at 81.9 or a def team like Virginia 48.6.
The math says:
Virginia games average 116.8
Pitt games 157.7
combined: 137.2
yet total line set at 126 1/2 (10 point under the combined average) One would think jump on the over with that 10 point margin.
Pitt hasn't seen a defense like this yet. They have played high scoring teams on their schedule. So far with the exception of Duquense Pitt games were against teams that both score and give up a lot of points.
favorite trend: check the scores,total line, and the under is 4-0
2016 Virginia 64 Pitt 50 133 U
2015 Pitt 49 Virginia 61 120 U
2014 Pitt 48 Virginia 51 120 U
2014 Virginia 48 Pitt 45 123 U
Virginia not only plays great D, but they eat a lot of clock with a patient offense.
Virigina has held 3 teams in the 30's.
Held explosive Iowa to 41
A & M to 39
Provo to 52
Louisville 53
Cal 52
Pitt ? I hope will be added to this list
IPFW @ Omaha over 176 1/2
IU-FW at 11-4 and 5-5 ats scoring 89.8 giving up 76.5 ppg for a diff of 13.3
NEBOM at 7-8 and 4-9 ats scoring 80.7 ppg giving up 83.9 ppg for a diff -3.2
Numbers come to 165.4 for the two teams and line at 176 1/2 for game.
Once again it would be easy to take the under (it might very well come under) but I just can't envision it happening.
IU-FW are 7-3 on the O/U and 4-1 away on the O/U
NEBOM are 8-5 on the over under and 3-0 at home on the O/U
Both teams can shoot the hoop:
IUFW shooting 52.6% fg and 74.7% ft and 43.1 from 3 pt land making 10.5 a game
Omaha shooting 43.6%fg and 73.8% ft and 35% from 3 pt land making 8.1 a game.
Both really good from the line and not to shabby on the 3's. They like to run and both teams turn it over at 14 and 15 to's respectively a game.
Both teams have veteran coaches who like to play fast.
fav stat: last 6 games in this series have gone over the total
184 line was 170
207 line was 162
191 line was 157
168 line was 161
165 line was 148
174 line was 146
So I understand why they keep setting the total higher between these two teams
Good luck everyone and things will turn around
