First of all, last night was a losing night for me at 1-4. The thing that gets me the most is, the leads that were blown at home by Michigan and Iowa St. That is scary. Michigan just plain quit. Iowa St played like pussies. They were down 6 with about 7 secs to go and don't even shoot a 3. They take a layup and stand there as the clock runs out. Christ sake, you at least attempt a 3 and if you make it call a time out and try and get a 5 call or a turnover. THEY QUIT AND COACH QUIT! Sorry had to get that off my mind.
Point I'm trying to make is this is the time of year where strange things happen so please bet reasonably.
#529 Notre Dame +6 -110
Notre Dame at 15-6 (6-3) and 8-10-1 ats scoring 78.9 ppg giving up 69.4 ppg for a diff of 9.5
Miami at 16-4 (5-3) and 11-7-1 ats scoring 78.8 ppg giving up 66.0 ppg for a diff of 12.8
Line is close at 6-7 points. I would have liked to have gotten the opening line of +7. The season stats are all close except for one that it is very important. Miami shoots 76.2% from the ft line.
Miami: FTA: 471 FTM: 359 They score 18 points a game from the line. Their opponents average 353 attempts per game. They make more than their opponent shoots on the average.
At least ND shoots 72.3% from the line and has FTA: 400
Miami has been a tough home team and are 8-2-1 ats at home. (very nice)
ND are 4-3 ats on the road. (mediocre)
Why Notre Dame?
For me it was a easy choice. I'll take a team that is 2nd in the nation in offense and is 4-1 including two straight wins in the series with an average score of 78.2 to 68.6 in favor of ND. It's not like this ND team is bad to be getting spotted all of these points. Jackson came back last game and his injury is supposedly fine. They have been very competitive on the road, except for the game without Jackson at Cuse, lost by 15.
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Notre Dame
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Notre Dame (This is the highest spread that Miami has been fav over ND)
It's all about the points. These two teams both have 3 conf losses already. One would expect both of them to be ready.
#539 Evansville +1 1/2
Evansville at 18-5 (7-3) and 9-8-1 ats scroing 77.6 ppg giving up 67.4 ppg for a diff of 10.3
N. Iowa at 12-11 (4-6) and 10-12 ats scoring 69.9 ppg giving up 65.8 ppg for a diff of 4.1
Trap me. I have the Aces fav in this game at -2. I will take the 4 point swing with them getting the +1 1/2 and run with it.
Be very careful as N. Iowa is a tricky team to bet on or against. They have beaten NC by 4 and Iowa St by 2. They had a lsoiing streak I conf 4 straight and 5 out of 6 before winning their last two games in conf. They lead the MVC in made 3 pointers (198). They have two players who can be lights out in Bohannon (67) and Jesperson (56). If they are on it's usually lights out for their opponents.
Northern Iowa is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home, (but have lost 2 out of their last 3 at home in conf) so they are vulnerable
Northern Iowa is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Evansville (have owned them at home) the last 4 at N Iowa have been split at 2-2.
Why Evansville?
I know it's hard to base games on stats alone and you must try to find edges or reasons to play a game outside of the box. This one is outside of the box for me. I'm usually a home team player and N Iowa certainly fits the credentials for a play on them. Being a ISU season ticket holder I've gotten the chance to see both of these teams play. I've seen this particular Evansville team play twice live and two more times on the tubes. I really just feel like the Aces are the better team. They can put that last home game (sell out) in which Wichita St spanked them at home, and hopefully get back to business. They have the top scorer (Ballantine most points) 21.2 ppg for the last 4 years and the top rebounder (Mockevicius) 16.7 ppg and 14.1 rebs a game. They are surrounded by a cast tha has played together the past 4 years. All of this I feel gives the Aces a edge in this game.
Understand, N. Iowa could blow them out at home if those 3 point shooters aren't covered and Evansville not hitting. It's hoops, it's gambling, I want Aces in this game.
#543 Oklahoma St +6 1/2 -110
Okl St at 11-10 (2-6) and 11-7-1 ats scoring 71.0 ppg giving up 66.8 ppg for a diff of 4.2
Texas T at 12-8 (2-6) and 9-8 ats scoring 73.3 ppg giving up 69.5 ppg for a diff of 3.9
Diff of 2 for Okl St, yet getting +6 to 7 points. I'll bite on this one two in this crazy world of college hoops. All stats are very close between these two teams and I see no significant injuries for either one. Okl St coming off a nice W at Auburn. I know Auburn was missing a key player, but still a nice W (11) on the road. Texas T have lost 3 straight and are 1-7 their last 8 games.
Texas Tech is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma State (like it)
Texas Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State (like it)
TT won last year at home by a point and hit a last shot 3 to win the game.
I'm thinking it might be another close game as both teams stand 2-6 in conf play and know that this is a winnable game for them. The young players for Okl St have really come around. Even though a couple of them are freshman, they are playing like soph's now. Their PG Evans is going to be a good one. He already is a good one.
For what's it worth, TT has Texas on deck at Texas on Sat. Just hoping Okl St can keep it close to the vest.
#549 Illinois St +1 -110
Illinois St at 12-11 (6-4) and 9-12 ats scoring 66.8 ppg giving up 67.7 ppg for a diff of -0.9
Loyola C at 10-12 (3-7) and 7-14 ats scoring 64.1 ppg for a diff of 65.1 ppg for a diff of -1.1
Now that's a pretty close diff between the two teams and LC not getting a lot of respect for being at home. It scare me now that I think about. Play is in though so reasons are a coming.
LC are 7-14 ats and a ugly 4-9 ats at home. They have definitely underachieved so far this season. For a team that returned 4 starters and won the CBI tournament last year, they haven't been doing so hot. They had a nice W in double overtime last game at home over ISU. They were on fire. James had career high 28 points, 14 rebs, he was superman. His uncles were also the refs in this game, all 3 of them, had to be, ISU never had a chance with the blow your whistle every time you touch someone. Sorry, didn't mean to get off topic as I did win the over that game 104-96. The other ISU is coming off a loss in OT at Missouri St. a game in which they literally choked off.
Loyola of Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Illinois State (like it)
I like the way ISU plays and their 6-4 conf record could easily be 8-2 with a few breaks. They pound the boards and they will have to in this game. I will tell you this, that LC team will not back down or quit. I saw them down DD's in the Evansville game and press and foul all the way to the final buzzer. This may be a game hat I wish I hadn't played and may be looking for an escape route at half time.
These next 3 games I'm going with the chalk board and the chalk.
#556 Kansas -12 -110
Kansas St at 13-8 (2-6) and 12-5-1 ats scoring 72.5 ppg giving up 66.8 ppg for a diff of 5.7
Kansas at 17-4 (5-3) and 11-8 ats scoring 84.0 ppg giving up 70.0 ppg for a diff of 14.1
Line is right. I just wish I would have had a chance to get it at the open of 10. I see Kansas is a mere 5-3 in conf play and KS not getting it done in conf at 2-6. Kansas (Allen fieldhouse 16,300) is one of the toughest venues to play at. I personally label them as -5 at home. Kansas should have the extra adrenalin rolling now coming off the win over Kentucky. Even though they are 5-3 in conf play, they are only 1 game out of first. Kansas has the edge in all shooting stats, and the edge on the boards, home court, and in my honest opinion are going blow them out of the gym. KS have been a covering team going 12-5-1 ats and 5-1-1 away ats.
That's not against Kansas though!
Kansas State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas. Margins of 11, 26, 16, 21, and 18 on the last 5 at Kansas.
Will take my chances and (pick my) spot the dd points in a conf game. NICE PUN
#558 Wichita St -15 -115
S. Illinois at 18-5 (7-3) and 12-9 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 69.3 ppg for a diff of 7.1
Wichita St at 16-5 (10-0) and 12-7 ats scoring 74.7 ppg giving up 61.7 ppg for a diff of 13.0
Kind of high isn't it? I see it opened at 14 but I never saw that with my book. I would reckon a smart bettor, (not me), would be jumping on S. Ill and the generous points on a team that is 18-5 and in 2nd place at 7-3 in conf. I'll bet those same bettors jumped on them at home getting +8 in a game where Wichita won 83-58 and were up by as many as 33 points in the game in front of a sold out house. Just ask Evansville how that panned out last Sunday. I'm ot going to let S. Illinois 7-2 ats away stop me. If they cover they cover.
Wichita State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Southern Illinois (be aware)
Wichita St coming off a 13 point w at Evansville.
Fred VanVleet is definitely one of the best around the past 4 years. He gets no attention. At Evansville he put up 32 points. Without him in the lineup the Shockers were not the same team. Without him in the line up the other players got very valuable experience. Now that he's been back, WS just crunching everyone and taking no prisoners. The bench is tough. The def is relentless. Then you have the 4 year starter shooting guard Baker at 6'4. The best guard combination (underated anyway) the past 4 years in the country. (my opinion)
Wichita St 10-0 in conf: margins of victory: 13, 26, 34, 19, 20, 16, 25, 3, 25, 20 (yes, I will give the 15 and take my chances)
Wichita St forces 16 turnover game. (23.9% turnovers a game that is) means almost a 1/4 of the game the other team doesn't even get a shot off.
Wichita St only averages 10 turnover a game
Last game at S. Ill Wichita St forced 17 turnovers and were up by as many as 33 points.
Let down maybe: Why would you let down at home against the #2 team in conf play?
SIDE NOTE: With a win tonight by Wichita St, coach Greg Marshall will become the winningest coach at Wichita St passing up Gene Smithson.
#561 Arizona -11 -110
Arizona at 17-5 (5-4) and 12-10 ats scoring 81.5 ppg giving up 67.6 ppg for a diff of 14.0
Wash St at 9-12 (1-8) and 9-11 ats scoring 74.5 ppg giving up 76.0 ppg for a diff of -1.5
Line is real close. Not close enough in my opinion though. Zona at 5-4 iin conf play> wow They better start getting their shit together and what better team than Wash St to start with.
Every stat to Zona.
Zona offense heading into the month of January averaged 75.1 ppg and was ranked #164.
Zona offense heading into Feb now averages 81.5 ppg and ranked #24.
Most of it because of Tarczewski: 11.6 ppg, 8.4 rebs, 60% fg, and 80.9% ft. he has woken up and is healthy now.
Zona beat Wash St back on Jan 16, by a score of 90-66. I really don't expect wash St to revenge that loss, although the spread won't be that high. The last time Wash St beat Zona was back in 2010.
Arizona is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Washington State (not much mercy)
Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Washington State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Zona is 9-1 straight up and 9-1 ats last 10 in this series with a average score of 75.3 to 61.5. (On Zona here)
good luck everyone
