#724 Auburn +7 -110 (1)
LSU at 13-8 (6-2) and 6-13 ats scoring 81.0 ppg giving up 75.7 ppg for a diff of 5.3
Auburn at 9-11 (3-5) and 8-11 ats scoring 74.5 ppg giving up 78.1 ppg for a diff of -3.6
Diff suggests 8, I have Auburn worth 3 at home, line could be around 5. I'm going to take the extra points in this one or a few reasons.
LSU 6-13 ats and 1-7 ats away from home (this game is away from home)
Auburn is 8-11 ats and 7-3 ats at home (like it)
Auburn coming off a 73-64 loss at home to Okl St. Auburn shot 27% abd went 0-12 from 3 pt land in the 2nd half.
Coach pearl suspended star player Cinmeon Bowers for one game for violation of team rules. There went 28.2 minutes, 10.7 ppg and 9.1 rebs.
With 4 other players already out for the season with injuries, no wonder Auburn is 8-11 this year. Because of injuries other players got their shot this season and they are improving.
One thin about Auburn and coach Pearl, they will play hard and he will have them convinced that they can win this game.
Last year Auburn won two out oif 3 in this series, splitting home wins and then Auburn beat them in the conf tournament. I know that was last year, and last years gone. Sounds like yesterday, and yesterdays gone.
LSU is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road (always tough to win on the road in conf, and the +7 is a nice spot for a desperate team at home.
Auburn is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home (they have a shot at it, or at least keeping it close)
Auburn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LSU
LSU are 6-4 SU last 10 in the series, but 2-8 ats, with the average score 67 to 67.7. (worth a play for me)
LSU has the potential and of course have Simmons and some decent players around him to really be a good team. They are ties for 2nd with a couple of other teams trailing A & M. From what I've seen of them, they get lazy and let teams catch up or hang around. Now they could very well blow out Auburn or at least cover this game, but I just don't see it happening since it hasn't happened many times in 21 games already.
Auburn at home have beaten Tenn 83-77, Kentucky 75-70, and Bama 83-77, allwere dogs except Tenn was close to a pick.
#714 Ball St/Bowling Green over 133 -110 (1)
Ball St at 13-8 and 6-9 ats scoring 70.0 ppg giving up 65.8 ppg for a diff of 4.2
BG at 13-8 and 9-8 ats scoring 73.3 ppg giving up 70.4 ppg for a diff of 2.9
I was originally going to play BG in this game mainly because Ball St is something was like 4-21 on the road, but obviously changed my mind. When looking at this game between the two teams I decided to make a play on the over. I'm not even close to the total people on the rx, but I do look at them sometimes. I'm getting a total for this game at 139-140, so of course I'm taking a shot at it at 133.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ball State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Bowling Green. (one more would be nice)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 6 games (perhaps they are catching on to x BG star player and now 1st year coach (Huger) he was a star under coach Jim Larranga in the early 90's, Anyway he wants to push the ball up court to get easy baskets or to draw fouls, and in nothing there then set up. It appears that his young squad are getting better at doing this since scoring has picked up.
Last year two games scores were 75-88 and 79-65. Ball St returned 4 starters from that team last year that averaged 65.2 ppg and now this year are scoring at 70 ppg and shooting 37.5% from 3 pt land.
BG returned 3 starters from that team last year that averaged 66.5 ppg and now scoring 73.3 ppg shooting 37.8 from 3 pt land.
I don't know, going to go for the over and see if I can get lucky.
#746 N. Illinois -3 -110 (1)
Buff at 12-9 (5-3) and 9-8-2 ats scoring 75.7 ppg giving up 73.8 ppg for a diff of 2.0
N.Ill at 16-5 (5-3) and 10-6 ats scoring 74.3 ppg giving up 64.4 ppg for a diff of 9.9
At first I thought the line was a mistake. I mean do the math the diff of 8, I give N.Ill a extra 3 at home, this line could be 10 or 11 point spread. I have been riding N. Illinois when they are at home this season. They are a remarkable 13-0 at home this year , and 15 straight if you dip back into last year. (nice streak to ride)
NI are 12th in the nation in def fg% at 3.4% and 3rd in scoring def at 64.4 ppg.
Stats are very close in all areas as the teams look pretty evenly matched up when you compare those.
If anyone is going to bust this streak of the Huskies, it would be Buff. Buff have won 10 straight in this series and 14 out of the last 15 games in this series.
Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NI are 0-10 SU last 10 inthis series and 3-7 ats lst 10.
So the current home streak of 13-0, 15-0 into last year, or the BUFF dominant streak of 10 straight in this series and 14 out of the last 15 games.
Normally I would lay off a game with two strong opposite streaks or trend going on, but decided that this group of N. Ill players are actively involved in this winning streak, while Buff lost their coach and a whole lot from last years team, so I will play the strong home trend that N.I has going on.
#756 Iowa St -4 1/2 -110 (1)
W.V at 17-4 (6-2) 11-7 ats scoring 81.1 ppg giving up 64.7 ppg for a diff of 16.3
Iowa St at 16-5 (5-3) and 10-7-1 ats scoring 83.3 ppg giving up 73.5 ppg for a diff of 9.8
Diff of 6, Iowa St worth 4-5 at home for me. Game could be at -1 or -2. Perhaps wanting WV action. How many are really believers in this WV team. I would not bet against them at home that's for sure, but on the road in a place like Hilton (14,384) a student section that fires this home team up, hell yes.
Both teams coming off losses on the road. WV got hammered at Florida as a 1 1/2 point dog. Iowa St was in the game at A & M and led for a long time before going down by a score of 72-62. Now I had A & M that game and feel very fortunate to get the cover as the final score (10) was not indicative of how close that game was played.
Anyway, Iowa St back in their real comfort zone, and WV on the road again. Lately you never know what WV team your going to get. I got a feeling they are going to be a very hungry WV team and that coach Huggins has probably rad them their rights. I will be in trouble if the refs aren't calling shit in this game. I've never seen a team like WV that gets away with more fouls just because the refs could call a foul almost every time so they just stop calling them unless it's so obvious they have no choice.
Iowa St have won 32 out of 34 home games. (tough)
Iowa St have won 12 straight home games after a loss (they are coming off a loss)
Iowa St have already beaten 3 teams that have been ranked at the #1 spot at sometime this season. Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, (very impressive)
Iowas St have 5 players who average DD's, and one of the best players in the country (imo) in Niang.
Iowa St leads series 5-1 and are 3-0 at home where they have won the 3 home games by a average of 13 ppg. (like it)
I'm not selling WV short with that def and press of theirs and I've seen them catch fire from the perimeter before. If they do then so be it.
#758 Michigan -2 1/2 -110 (2)
IU at 18-4 (8-1) and 11-11 ats scoring 85.2 ppg giving up 68.6 ppg for a diff of 16.7
Mich at 17-5 (7-2) and 11-9 ats scoring 77.4 ppg giving up 64.4 ppg for a diff of 13.0
Even though the diff and giving Mich a extra 4 at home suggests a pick it for this game. I still think the line should be -5 to 6. Indiana is playing great and their my home state and all that other stuff, but the realization here is they are on the road in a tough venue against a very tough team and are only getting two points! Hey, you know as well as I do that IU runs up the score in non conf games against weak teams at home. That is why their diff of 16.7 is so misleading in the big 10 games.
If you follow the big 10 closely, Indy (7-1) conf record, have played almost all of the bottom tier teams so far in conf. They beat Minny 2x, Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Ohio St and Wiscy at home for their 7 w's. Don't get me wrong, Wiscy and Ohio St are improving (but not the same powerhouses of the past) and lost at Wiscy. I'm just saying well IU has the great record and all, I expect the boat to really start hitting some shaky water.
IU at 85.2 ppg for 7th in the nation, and shooting 43.2 for 3rd best in 3 pt %
IU (biased) have the top point guard in the country. Ferrell scoring 17.5 ppg, 5.7 assists, and hitting 47% from 3 pt land.
Mich with 4 straight games of fta of 20+ going 78-97 (80.4%) and shooting 74.5% on the year.
Mich can keep up with IU as Mich is actually hitting 10.6 3's a game, tops in the big 10 and 6th in the nation.
Robinson is 5thn in the nation at 49.7% form 3 pt land (incredible shooting)
Walton shooting 83% from the ft line.
Indiana has done well ats in this series, as they are 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Michigan (don't like it, but IU was getting a lot of points in most of those games) not so many this time.
Well to be honest with you on this game, IU is very capable of catching fire and winning this game. Considering the magnitude of the game, atmosphere, talent on both teams, and what's at stake, and especially the way things have been going with home teams taking down teams ranked ahead of them, I'm on the home team.
I hope ISU is blowing Drake out so I can leave early enough to catch this game. If I don't behave at the ISU game she has threatened to move. She doesn't care if I bet. She just keeps reminding me that I'm not a coach anymore and to stop conversing (letting them know when they missed a call) with the refs.
good luck everyone
