here ya go guys hope i helped
Marc Lawrence Pros..
5* best bet
5 BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over Oakland by 17
Oakland's new long passing game (new? Al Davis has been
doing that for four decades) won't go over so well against
the best secondary in football so the Raiders will have to
find another way to move the ball. They probably won't.
Philadelphia has bagged the cash five straight years in Game
3 of the season and are currently riding a 10-2-1 ATS skein
in games off double-digit wins. Look for more of the same
against the overrated Raidahs, especially considering Andy
Reid is an eye-popping 23-4 SU & 21-6 ATS off a win against
an opponent off a loss, including 21-2 SU & 20-3 ATS as a
dog or favorite of less than nine points!
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4* best bet
MIAMI over Carolina by 10
We spoke earlier of a Miami hangover that affects the Jets.
Miami does not get Jet lag. The Dolphins do rather well
after playing the Airplanes (6-2 ATS last eight) and about
the same in September home games. Emotional hammer
sides with the Fish as teams who upset the defending Super
Bowl champions and then take to the road are a measly 14-
28-1 ATS, including 5-23-1 ATS when taking on a .400 or
better foe. Miami fits the bill. We like this home Dogphin.
4 BEST BET
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3* best bet
3 BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Tampa Bay by 7
On paper it appears Green Bay's defense could suffer against
Tampa's emerging offense. The Bucs, mostly thanks to
Carnell Williams, have become a two-dimensional team with
a legitimate opportunity to win every game. They haven't
done well on the road between home games (seven straight
ATS losses) and Brett Favre is pissed. The line on this game
at the beginning of the season would have been reversed.
With the Packers 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home when
taking points (including 4-0 SU & ATS when playing off a
loss), we'll back the better QB here today.
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this weeks best bet
3* best bets,,,colorado,,packers,,steelers over
4* best bets...penn state,,dolphins,,jets under
5* best bets..vir tech,,eagles..vikes over
Marc Lawrence
5 BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over Georgia Tech by 24
5 COLLEGE GAME
OF THE MONTH!!
Documented 42-18 since 1990
Saturday.
Early results indicate that this will determine the ACC
Coastal division titleist. Both teams have played very well
so far this year and appear to be the cream of the ACC
crop. Still, this is an unplayable game from our perspective.
Georgia Tech is a dynamite road dog while Virginia Tech is
nearly unbeatable at home. Marcus Vick and Reggie Ball
(check status) are two of the ACC’s best QB’s. We do know
that home teams off BB shutout wins are 22-3-1 SU and
14-61 ATS. And now you do, too.
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4* best bet
4 BEST BET
Penn State over NORTHWESTERN by 10
The Lions are finding their offensive rhythm against lesser
competition and, to be honest, this Northwestern defense
isn’t much better than the teams Penn State has been
playing. The Penn State double revenge, a huge edge in
defensive ability, and a fair number put us on Joe Pa and
the white shirts today. An interesting sidebar: the Lions have
been held to 7 points in each of the last two meetings in
this series. In the previous three they scored 49, 38 and 41.
Against this defenseless sieve, we see the latter happening
here today. PSU improves to 13-1 ATS in SU road revenge wins.
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3* best bet
3 BEST BET
MIAMI FL over Colorado by 3
Simply put, these are not the vintage Canes we’ve come to
know over the years. After having been outgained, 378-
347 by Clemson in last week's triple OT win, Miami has now
been outyarded in eight of its last fourteen games since
last season. It’s no wonder Coker is popping Propecia in
record levels. Colorado has been camped at home since the
season began. They're also off a shutout win and have the
benefit of a week of rest to prepare. Underdogs in this role,
in Games 2-6, are 16-6 ATS. Miami is too undisciplined for
our tastes. Besides, Buffs have score 20 or more points in 18
of their last 23 games. UM is 0-7 ATS at home when they
surrender 20 or more. We're runnin' with the Herd here.
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upset gow
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
OREGON ST over Arizona St by 6
Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by
Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. They
are a one-dimensional team for sure but they are playing in
a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten. With
good reason. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home
games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven
straight wins. As ugly as this Beaver is, dive in and enjoy the
fun. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge.
USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.
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ALABAMA over Arkansas by 13
Alabama’s defense should eat up a team that cannot run the
football and Arkansas certainly fits that description. The problem
is that the Tide has already failed in both opportunities as a home
favorite this season and is just 2-8 ATS in that role in its last ten
tries. However, before you get too excited about this underHog,
remember that Vanderbilt had lost 16 conference road games in
a row before going to Fayetteville and upsetting Arkansas. This
just in: the last 11 teams who allowed 70 or more points in their
previous game are 9-2 ATS when taking on a foe off a win. With
Bama off last week's South Carolina revenge win, and having
Florida up next, the points become the play here today,
Florida over KENTUCKY by 21
Kentucky is gutty, if nothing else, and the talent is starting to
catch up to the courage. No, the Cats aren’t at Florida’s level yet,
but if the Gators think they are going into Commonwealth
Stadium for a walk-through win, we suggest they call the
Louisville Cardinals before they put on the pads. You couldn’t
blame Florida for being a bit overconfident. The Gators have
beaten the Cats 18 times in a row. They'll win here, too, but
getting the number may be another matter.
NC STATE over N Carolina by 14
NC State is an enigma for statisticians. The Wolfpack has beaten
every one of its last 13 foes in yardage but is just 6-7 on the
scoreboard. The Wolves have had trouble covering, too. They’ve
made the money just four times in their last 17 ACC games.
Revenge will make the difference today. NC State laid 10.5 at
Carolina last season and lost the whole game. Watch the Wolfpack
defense throttle the Tar Heels and roll to a comfortable win.
Notre Dame over WASHINGTON by 10
Last year, in the midst of one of Notre Dame’s worst seasons,
Washington came trotting into South Bend full of confidence.
Sixty minutes later, the Huskies were heading back to Seattle
with a 38-3 butt whipping that put the program in the tank for
the rest of the season. In fact, UW hasn’t beaten a major college
opponent since then. There’s no doubt that Tyrone Willingham
would love to stick it to the school that fired him
FREE PICK PHONE!
3 BEST BET
MIAMI FL over Colorado by 3
Simply put, these are not the vintage Canes we’ve come to
know over the years. After having been outgained, 378-
347 by Clemson in last week's triple OT win, Miami has now
been outyarded in eight of its last fourteen games since
last season. It’s no wonder Coker is popping Propecia in
record levels. Colorado has been camped at home since the
season began. They're also off a shutout win and have the
benefit of a week of rest to prepare. Underdogs in this role,
in Games 2-6, are 16-6 ATS. Miami is too undisciplined for
our tastes. Besides, Buffs have score 20 or more points in 18
of their last 23 games. UM is 0-7 ATS at home when they
surrender 20 or more. We're runnin' with the Herd here.
Marshall over C FLORIDA by 1
Marshall has enjoyed a ton of success in the last decade but there
is one area in which it has failed miserably. When they go on the
road into revenge, the Herd is a pitiful 6-19 ATS despite winning
18 of those 25 games on the field. Still, Central Florida isn’t exactly
a winner, owning a 17-game losing streak going into last week’s
game against South Florida. The numbers are all wrong for a
serious play here. Let’s move on.
Southern Cal over OREGON by 10
This week’s Awesome Angle says it all and don’t think for a
minute that Oregon doesn’t have the talent to make it work.
The Ducks have impressive numbers (9-2 ATS last 11) when getting
points and are extremely tough to beat on the Duck Pond ( 53-6
SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more
points). Sure, Southern Cal has been the nation’s dominant
football team over the last two plus years but even the best have
their off days. We’re counting on one of those coming here.
MISSISSIPPI over Wyoming by 3
Wyoming, off a gut wrenching last minute win over bitter rival
Air Force, travels to the deep south to face an Ole Miss team
who is still stinging from the rude reception it received in Laramie
last season. The Rebels went to the Laramie plateau and were
ambushed by the altitude and the Cowboys. The feeling here is
the Cowboys are a better team this season while the Rebels
aren't. With that, we'll leave Ole Miss alone here today.
N Illinois over AKRON by 10
Everyone in the MAC world thought that the Zips would be
impotent without the best QB in school history and all the
accompanying skill people. It’s not turning out that way. Akron
is very competitive with Luke Getsy at the controls and will be
no easy pickings in league play. Northern Illinois has the talent
to win the MAC West and the Huskies are good enough to win
this. It just won’t be easy.
HOUSTON over S Mississippi by 6
What a gutty effort the Houston team gave in El Paso last Friday.
Standing toe-to-toe with the team favored to win the conference,
the Cougars gave UTEP everything it wanted and played right
until the final second of overtime. Southern Miss better bring its
“A” game to Reliant Stadium or the Golden Eagles will be looking
square into the eyes of another road loss. Wait a minute!
Southern Miss doesn’t have an “A” game. Not this year.
Memphis over TULSA by 1
The Tigers could still be upset over losing at home to Mississippi
but they should be able to win this. DeAngelo Williams is better
than anything Tulsa can dress and the Memphis defense appears
to be better than the preseason gurus expected. Still, bad numbers
abound for the Tigers, actually for both teams, and we want a
few more edges before we lay points on the road with this lot.
LSU over Tennessee by 7
Can Tennessee can get up after playing its biggest rival the week
before? There isn’t a tougher pair of games on anyone’s schedule
this season than Tennessee’s trips to Florida and LSU on consecutive
weekends. Remembering that the Vols are 1-40-1 ATS in their last
42 SU losses keeps us off the Orange. Knowing that LSU is 2-32
ATS as home chalk when they allow 21 or more keeps us off the
Tigers. What we’re trying to say is we’re off this game
Michigan St over ILLINOIS by 6
It may seem imprudent to take the Spartans here considering
that they just played Notre Dame and have Michigan and Ohio
State dead ahead. Couple that with the fact that our 'Anti Irish
Letdown' theory comes into effect as well (teams who upset
Notre Dame are just 3-17-1 ATS as favorites in their next game).
A boatload of old negative Illini stats surface here as well,
though. Then again, that was before the Zooker arrived on the
scene. Take the points.
Boston College over CLEMSON by 3
Clemson has faced one of the most brutal opening schedules ever
conceived by an athletic director. The Tigers opened with Texas
A&M, took a trip to Maryland and played the Miami Hurricanes
last week. Does Clemmie have anything left for this rugged BC
bunch? The Eagles can win on the road (15-6 ATS last 21) but
they are coming off an emotional game with Florida State. We
like their chances with QB Porter (check his injured ankle) in the
lineup. No Porter, no play.
Louisville over S FLORIDA 27
Louisville gave up ten quick points to Oregon State then blitzed
the Ducks woozy with 35 unanswered before the half. Judging
by that performance, it would appear that the Cardinals have
way too much firepower for stodgy South Florida. Louie is 41-10
ATS in its last 51 road wins and has covered nine of the last 12 as
chalk. Talent disparity, especially at the quarterback position,
keeps us in a 'lay it or leave it' mode. Remember, the Cards were
our longshot choice to steal the BCS in '05. No backing off now.
WAKE FOREST over Maryland by 3
Maryland has had its troubles this season but the Terps rarely
have trouble with Wake Forest. The Turtles have won 13 of the
last 16, including six straight wins and covers, and could easily
extend that streak against a Demon Deacon team still searching
for its offensive identity. Unfortunately, Maryland hasn’t found
its offense either, making this a solid pass for us.
Georgia over MISSISSIPPI ST by 10
The teams haven’t met for eight years but, if there are any long
memories in Starkville, there is no love lost on the other Dawgs.
Georgia has won 21 of its last 27 conference games, including a
perfect 11 for 11 against .600 or less foes, a direct opposite of
Missy State’s record. Over the same period of time, the Starkville
Dawgs are 3-22 SU in league play with only one win in 20 tries
against .300 or better opposition. Still, though, can't dismiss a
17 returning starter taking points with revenge. With the Dawgs
looking dead ahead to Tennessee, this becomes a tentative take.
W Michigan over TEMPLE by 3
This is clearly Temple’s final chance to avoid a winless season. It’s
not a great chance but it is a chance. Western Michigan’s defense
is the worst the Owls will see. However, they haven’t showed
that they can score in a dummy scrimmage. Western won’t go
winless with games against Buffalo and Ball State in the near
future, but this one isn’t a gimme.
C MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 1
After a nice win over Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern went across
the street and got beheaded by a very angry pack of Wolverines.
Now, back in their league, the Emus are looking forward to
regaining their self respect. It won’t be easy. Central did what
few teams have done over the last decade, win at Miami Ohio.
Two good QB’s in an entertaining game... too bad no one will
see it.
VIRGINIA over Duke by 21
Virginia is in its best role (13-1 off BB ATS losses) and has the
perfect foil to extend that record. Duke took the week off (played
VMI) after that thrashing by Virginia Tech but, rested or not, the
Dukies just aren’t very good. They did nothing offensively or
defensively against Tech and Virginia isn’t that far behind the
Hokies talent wise. Still, we abhor homecoming favorites. We’ll
be cavalier about this and ignore it, gracefully.
BYU over Tcu by 10
Let’s see, the Horned Frogs went to Oklahoma and handed the
Sooners their first September loss ever under Bob Stoops. The
next week, at SMU, the Toads gave up the Mustangs' first nonconference
win in 18 tries. Just five days later, TCU stopped Utah’s
18-game win streak in overtime. We’ll need a little more time
to determine what kind of streak BYU is in, but did you notice a
pattern with the Amphibians? We did, and we’re doing it.
W VIRGINIA over E Carolina by 21
Two impressive wins at Syracuse and at Maryland sandwiched
around a roast of Wofford bring the Mountaineers into this
match at an unexpected 3-0. We certainly don’t expect the
Mounties to go undefeated this year but they should be 4-0 after
this Saturday. East Carolina hasn’t beaten a winning team on
the road since November of 2001 and they likely won’t win this.
Linemaker is quickly catching up to West Virginia. No value here.
Thursday, September 22nd
Commonwealth Gobblers to Wreck Tech...
Eagles Show No Brotherly Love to Raidahs...
Saturday, September 24th
Friday, September 23rd
BOISE ST over Bowling Green by 10
The Smart Box (page 3) tells us that Boise is the side in this game
but you don’t need a box and you don’t need to be smart to
understand how hard it will be for the BeeGees to win this game.
Boise is a smart 25-0 SU on the blue rug and Bowling Green is
just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 SU losses. But the key is this: Ball State,
with mostly freshmen and sophomores, boxed the BG defense
all over the field just ten days ago.
Wednesday, September 21st
UTAH over Air Force by 6
Air Force is a capable road underdog, especially in conference
play (14-8 ATS last 22) but the Falcons are going into a hornet’s
nest here. Utah is still steaming about the illegal pick that cost
them a win at TCU and the Utes will be foaming at the mouth
here. The problem with playing Utah is that the underdog has
won the money eight straight times in this series and home
favorites off an overtime loss are pathetic pointspread plays.
FLA ATLANTIC over LA Monroe by 6
Easily the worst game of the week and easily the most impossible
to handicap. Monroe did beat the Owls in Florida last season, its
sixth road win in sixty tries if you don’t count games against
fellow Louisiana garbage can, Lafayette. Can they do it again?
With FAU starting seven freshmen and sophomores on defense,
anything can happen. NOTE: this game moved to Thursday from
Saturday.
Iowa St over ARMY by 17
An interesting Friday game that demands watching. Iowa State,
fresh off its biggest win of the season, takes on an Army team
that rises up every now and them. The Cyclones aren’t looking
ahead to Nebraska and certainly have the talent to dispatch the
Corps. But as bad as Army is as an underdog (8-15 ATS last 23),
Iowa State is as road chalk (1-5 ATS last six).
California over NEW MEXICO ST by 27
It’s been a long time since California covered as a favorite in a
non-conference game against an avenging opponent (15 years,
to be exact) but the Bears are way better than NMSU. Hal Mumme
hasn’t got his spread offense going yet and this Cal defense sure
isn’t a remedy for an ailing attack. Aggies have a strong (9-2
ATS) record as a home dog and that will keep us at bay for now.
OHIO ST over Iowa by 10
Last year, Iowa handed Jim Tressel his worst loss as coach of the
Buckeyes. That 33-7 pounding was the final blow in a three-game
OSU losing streak and a most bitter pill to swallow for the proud
Buckeyes. Be sure that Ohio State will come to play here. Iowa
showed some huge holes in that game at Iowa State but the
Hawkeyes are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 conference games. Line
may be over-adjusted because of that loss at Ames.
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 September 22 - 26 No. 4
11 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Troy State
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 41 - Troy State 10
CKO sources report South Carolina players preparing for a top emotional
effort vs. Troy State after disappointing new HC Spurrier with 37-14 setback
vs. Bama. "Darth Visor" laments, "There's no way our fans could be proud of
that performance and effort; we're going to find guys that really want to
play and play all-out effort wise." Expect resolute, superior 'Cocks to
perform up to Spurrier's standards vs. rebuilding Trojan squad that lost too
many talented srs. from LY's surprising 7-5 team, including 10 now in the
NFL. Troy still hasn't found an adequate replacement for record-setting RB
Betterson, so expect USC front 7 to heavily blitz immobile QB Meadows early
and often. On other side, USC's capable QB Mitchell has developed solid
rapport with emerging RS frosh, 6-4 WR Rice (10 grabs last 2 games), and look
for bruising RB Turman to exploit Trojans softened run "D" (allowing 5.3 ypc)
sans injured star LB L. Johnson. Don't put much stock in 'Cocks lackluster
17-7 victory vs. Troy LY, since ultraconservative HC Lou Holtz refused to
throw ball downfield, which is no longer true in Spurrier's 'Cock-and-Fire
attack.
10 *SMU over Tulane
Late Score Forecast:
*SMU 31 - Tulane 20
Wouldn't read too much into SMU's pummeling at A&M. Mustangs were ripe for
the plucking after upsetting TCU, the biggest win for the program since
returning from the "Death Penalty" in late '80s. And superior Aggies had an
extra week to fume over their opening loss at Clemson. Look for top effort
this week from embarrassed, veteran SMU squad returning home and stepping way
down in class. Tulane played with a lot of emotion in its opening loss to
Mississippi State. But being displaced by Hurricane Katrina is not a
positive for Green Wave. Mustangs have more returning starters than any team
in Div. I-A. And their defense matches up well against a Tulane attack that
lacks premium receiving targets of recent editions. SMU offense features two
veteran QBs and an emerging weapon in RS frosh RB DeMyron Martin, who had 118
YR & 3 TDs in win over Horned Frogs.
10 MARYLAND over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
MARYLAND 28 - *Wake Forest 20
ACC scouts predict Maryland will rebound this week following back-to-back
losses to Clemson & West Virginia. After all, Terps had a 4th-Q lead vs.
Tigers and trailed Mounties by only 2 late in final period. Insiders say
Ralph Friedgen's young team remains upbeat. And the clever Maryland head
coach has won & covered all 4 meetings with Wake counterpart Jim Grobe, who's
covered just 1 of his last 10 as favorite! A major reason for Terps' success
in series has been their ability to contain Deacons' ground game, limiting
Wake to fewer than 200 YR in 3 of those 4 tilts. And, with ubiquitous sr.
MLB D'Qwell Jackson on patrol and Deacons (only 6 TDP last 1+ seasons) unable
to develop significant aerial threat, TY's clash should hold that form. Much
prefer better balanced Maryland attack. Rapidly-emerging jr. QB Sam
Hollenbach (64%, 579 YP, 4 TDP last 2 games) will find lots of openings in
Wake's suspect 2ndary, which can't match up with NFL-caliber jr. TE Vernon
Davis (11 catches for 298 yards last 2 weeks).
10 PURDUE over *Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
PURDUE 27 - *Minnesota 20
Things have worked out just swimmingly so far for Minnesota, which has been
able to unleash "special" RB Maroney on an assortment of over-matched foes,
those being Tulsa, Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic. The yards and
points, and even the victory, will be much tougher to gain vs. a veteran
Purdue defense that has given up a total of 32 rushing yards its first two
games. Worse yet for Minny, Joe Tiller and the Boilermakers have been a
major nemesis for the Gophers, winning the last 7 meetings SU and covering
the last six. Moreover, Purdue running much better TY, with top RB Jerod
Void re-joining the track team to gain speed, and elusive QB Brandon Kirsch
working with a big set of new spread-option plays that the Gophers haven't
seen. Purdue lost five games LY-by 3, 2, 3, 2 & 4 points-four of them vs.
bowl teams! And Minny's early kicking worries not a positive in another
close game.
10 *MIAMI over Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 19 - Carolina 13
(Sunday, September 25)
Miami is definitely an improved team under new HC Nick Saban. The Miami
defense (just 27 points first 2 games) appears to have regained form that saw
Dolphins allow 18 ppg from 2001-03 before falling back to 22 ppg and a 4-12
SU mark in disastrous '04 campaign. Saban has done a good job filling in
after team had several high-profile defenders depart, evidenced by foes
completing just 53% (6th-lowest in NFL). Respect Carolina team that is also
improved, but Panthers have been a terrible favorite over the last few
seasons (5-15 vs. number), and QB Jake Delhomme has been far from sharp in
first two games (53% on 30 of 57 passing with 3 ints. and just 1 TD pass).
Interestingly, Carolina's first two opponents have had some success going
after Panther CBs Lucas & Gamble, who had 6 ints. each LY, but none thus far.
Also, the Carolina pass rush hasn't put as much pressure on opposing QBs as
HC John Fox would like, and Panthers have just 3 sacks. Carolina's upset of
Patriots serves to distort line and lend value to Miami side, set Panthers up
for possible letdown, and ensure a focused effort from intense Dolphin HC
Saban and his team.
TOTALS: UNDER (43) in New Orleans-Minnesota game-After 12 giveaways first two
games, anticipate a "grim," resolute effort from Moss-less Vikes...UNDER
(37.5) in Carolina-Miami game-Dolphins offense still a work in progress, but
not so Saban's defense (13.5 ppg).
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): LOUISVILLE (-23) at South
Florida-Improved USF has revenge motive, but Louisville offense an virtual
unstoppable dynamo at its own level...TENNESSEE (+6.5) at Lsu-Yes, Tigers
fired up for home debut, but Tennessee hung tight at Florida even facing a
much better QB; prefer to get at least 7 points, however...COLORADO STATE
(-17) vs. Nevada-After a week off to lick their wounds following tough road
losses at Colorado & Minnesota, rested Rams should get their potent aerial
game going vs. Nevada team with no covers last eight on the road...OREGON
STATE (+5) vs. Arizona State-In battle of unbalanced, pass-happy offenses and
vulnerable defenses, home field and the points appears to be substantial
edges...NEW ENGLAND (+3) at Pittsburgh-Embarrassed Pats will have their
"pride up" facing a QB who's unbeaten in regular season (15-0); Belichick's
boys 5-0-1 last 6 when getting points.
NFL KEY RELEASES
GOLDSHEET
CHICAGO by 7 over Cincinnati
GREEN BAY by 7 over Tampa Bay
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-Buffalo game
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ALABAMA by 28 over Arkansas
FLORIDA by 35 over Kentucky
NORTH CAROLINA by 1 over North Carolina State
