Temple (2)
Cincy at 12-2 and 6-5 ats and 1-1 away scoring 80.9 ppg giving upp 59.1 ppg for a diff of 21.8
Temple at 7-6 and 5-7-1 ats and 3-2 home scoring 72.4 ppg giving up 72.5 ppg for a diff of -.1
Diff of 21.9 and Temple worth 4 at home so line could be 17-18, they can't put that line out,
Cincy has beat up on some teams: By all means I'm not putting them down as they are tough and well coached and have cashed for me a lot at home in the past years. But their diff is really inflated after pounding on:
Sav St, WC, Coppin St, Alabama St, Ark Pine Bluff, and a terrible Clev St team this year. They beat Memphis who is definitely not the Memphis teams I remember from the pst years, and a struggling Richmond team. Cincy had a nice road win over UCLA (you never know how they are going to play) and their 2 losses were at Xavier by 13 and Florida by 6 on a (N)
Temple schedule has been a nightmare:
Now wonder their diff is about even. No cupcakes at all!
Houston, Georgia, Nova, St Joes, Wiscy, SC, Clemson, Auburn, Old D, (get the picture, use to playing nothing but tough teams henceforth their record and differential of course is not great)
Shooting, rebs, %, all close, but wonder what Cincy's would be without all of the layups playing the cupcake schedule. (hoping not as good in this one)
Cincy are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. (this game at Temple and Temple plays Cincy tough at home)
Temple has covered the spread 7 out of the last 10 in this series (like it)
Temple has covered the spread in 4 out of the last 5 in this series (like it)
last 4 in this series have been decided by, 7, 6, 2 in ot, and 7, Temple actually won 2 of those games (so of course I like the +8)
Cincy will be without Cane Broome listed as out with ankle: gone are 20 minutes, 9.8 ppg and 3.1 assists, 72%ft and 43.8 % from 3 pt land
(he will be missed in a game like this)
also sub Brooke listed ? 11 minutes 4 ppg,
So going to take the home dog and the big +8 and making it a (2), I'm usually not a dog player unless I really think they have a legit shot at winning outright, hoping this could be one of them.
S.Miss (2)
UTEP at 6-8 and 5-3 ats and 0-1 away and 0-3 on (neutral) scoring 68.4 ppg giving up 66.9 ppg diff of 1.5
S. Miss at 7-8 and 4-6 ats and 5-0 home scoring 70.8 ppg and giving up 69.9 ppg for a diff of .9
Diff very close .6 and S. Miss a very tough place to play at, worth 4 for me, so line could be a point or 2 higher. It should be in my opinion.
At home S. Miss averaging 89.0 ppg and giving up 71.0 ppg for a diff of 18 (I'd say they play much better and shoot much better at home)
On the road UTEP scoring 63.0 ppg and giving up 72.0 ppg for a diff of -9 (a true road game loss and 0-3 on a (N)) (much worse on the road)
So I like the line enough to risk a (2)
stats against me in this one
UTEP are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. (UTEP have been covering away) mostly based on last year when getting a bunch of points
UTEP are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall. (Kind of leary cause they cover a lot but still like S. Miss at home)
what I like better
USM are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. (Home court team, been there to watch my daughter play college game)
Home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings. (Love it)
Just some numbers that helped persuade me for a (2):
S.Miss overall shooting stats: 41.9 fg%, 32.1 3pt %, 65.5 ft% (nothing to write home about)
S. Miss home shooting stats: 56.6 fg%, 54.2 3 pt %, 84.2 ft % (incredible diff, caught my attention)
and the last thing:
the home team has won the last 10 games in this series: S.Miss home tonight
S. Miss have won the last 5 at home in this series and have covered ats in all of them margins of 8, 13, 3, 8, 18, (love it)
As I've stated many times, I know some couldn't care less about the strong trends, but this is what I look for and if I lose I lose!
ULL (2)
App St at 7-8 and 6-5-1 ats and 0-6 away scoring 82.0 ppg and giving up 75.7 ppg for a diff of 6.3
ULL at 12-3 and 4-4 ats and 6-0 home and scoring 85.9 ppg and giving up 73.7 ppg for a diff of 12.2
Diff of 5.9 and ULL worth 4 so line could be 10-11, set at 12, Sure Vegas knows more than I do, but App St just not very good 0-6 on the road. Tough to play against them at home, but they are away tonight.
At home ULL scoring 93.2 ppg and giving up 74.8 ppg for a diff of 18.4 (obviously better at home)
Away App scoring 75.2ppg and giving up 87.0 ppg for a diff of -11.8 (gives you a idea of how different from night and day App is on the road)
those numbers give you a diff of 30.2 (just to give you a idea that 12 is a very attainable number in this game)
All shooting stats favor ULL and I like that the % re higher at home for Ull and lower for App ST.
APP are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 road games. (how can you not like it)
ULL have won 5 straight in this series and have covered the spread in all 5 of the games (like it a lot)
in ULL two home games in this series they won by 21 last year and 15 the year before.
Moving on: ULL is a (2) for me.
eat some lunch and try to get the other (2) games up
