#516 Charlotte/Marshall over 179 -110
Charlotte at 10-15 and 16-7 ats scoring 78.0 ppg giving up 79.8 ppg for a diff of -1.8
Marshall at 13-12 and 15-9 ats scoring 85.0 ppg giving up 84.0 ppg or a diff of 1.0
O/U ats numbers
Charlotte are 14-8-1 on the o/u: at home are 8-5-1 and away 6-3 (they are away today)
Marshall are 15-9 on the o/u: at home 7-4 and away 8-5 (they are home today)
The score in Jan 21 at Charlotte was 103-95 (198) That's going up and down and scoring mostly layups and 3's, long shots mean long rebounds which lead to fast breaks
The last 4 games in this series have gone over.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games on the road (Just the way they play under Mark Price who love to shoot the 3 ball himself)
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Marshall's last 12 games (looks like a pretty decent thing going on, score, 83.3% going over with those numbers)
Charlotte averaged 102.5 points in its last two game (both w's, why change, keep the heat on)
The two teams rank #1 & #2 in scoring offense in conf play at 93.3 and 82.9 and 3 pointers at 11.8 and 9.3 (got to like it)
Marshall has hit 10 or more 3's, 14 times this season.
Charlotte leads the conf in3 pt % at 38.7, they hit 17 in one game this year, and just hit 14 in their last game. (hope their hitting them tonight)
A very high total at 179. The totals from all games on their offenses and defenses come up to 163.4. (not like were getting a gift as jacked up)
No guarantees but I'm taking a chance that these two teams are going to go at each other and if they are at least shooting their % then there is a shot at going over.
#542 Cincy/Tulsa under 134 1/2 -110
Cincy at 19-7 and 10-11-1 ats scoring 74.2 ppg giving up 61.5 ppg for a diff of 12.7
Tulsa at 16-9 and 13-9-2 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 68.6 ppg for a diff of 5.1
O/U ats numbers
Cincy are 8-13-1 on the O/U and 7-3-1 at home and 1-10 away (away it is in this one)
Tulsa are 12-12 on the O/U and 4-8 at home and 8-4 away (home it is in this one)
So I have the numbers on my side, once again no guarantees or automatics that it pans out that way, but do have the %.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 15 games on the road (strong trend and worth the gamble for me)
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games at home (like it)
Cincy won in Jan 76-57 (133) with a line set at 136. Cincy won last year at Tulsa 56-47 (103) with a line set at 118 1/2
Cincy def 61.5 ppg, def fg % 38.8 and 3 pt def fg 35.3% (they defend)
Tulsa def 68.6 ppg, def fg %41.6 and 3 pt def fg 36.1 % ( not to shabby either)
Def rebs will be key and both teams do reb well. 2nd chance points on the offensive end could be the killer as they do pound the boards.
We also need the refs not to call the nickel and dime fouls. That always aids the offense, gets them to the ft line, and Defenses and players get cautious and don't defend because of foul trouble.
I could be way off base in this one, but thinking it will be more of a grind between two teams that need to build their resumes up to make the tournament. The way the bubble is bouncing around if you want to win you better D it up!
#584 IUFW +3 1/2 -110
SDS at 20-6 (9-3) and 13-9 ats scoring 77.4 ppg giving up 68.2 ppg for a diff of 9.2
IU-FW at 20-7 (9-3) and 17-5 ats scoring 79.4 ppg giving up 75.7 ppg for a diff of 3.7
Diff of 5, IU-FW worth 3-4 at home, we have value on this one and I like it.
I bet SDS -9 back on Jan 14 in this game and did hit it. I said I was following the strong home trends in this series and hope it would hit one more time. It did hit. Now I'm following them again in the return match at IU-FW.
The teams are tied for ast in conf at 9-3. SDS beat up on them at home like they always do. SDS are 7-6 on the road and 3-3 in conf play. Definitely a different team on the road. IU-FW are 10-1 at home and 5-1 in conf play at home.
IU-FW are 6-2 ats at home. (like it)
IU-FW have won the last 3 at home in this series by 10, 4, 7.
I thing we have a live home dog in this one and I'll gladly take my chances with the points because I do expect a close game here as the teams battle for that #1 seed for their conf tourney.
If you search back to Jan 14, I probably had my reasons for the same game but taking SDS at home in that one.
#588 UCLA -1 -110
Utah at 19-7 (8-5) and 10-13-1 ats scoring 79.1 ppg giving up 69.5 ppg for a diff of 9.7
UCLA at 14-11 (5-7) and 10-15 ats scoring 79.0 ppg giving up 76.6 ppg for a diff of 2.4
Diff of 7, I value UCLA at 4 for home, you know they aren't going to give UCLA points at home in tis match-up. I'm also glad that all the have to do is win the game and a worst I push then if by 1.
The question is we never know what UCLA team will show up. Will it be the team that has beat Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Arizona, or the team that has lost 7 conf games and some of them by large margins? UCLA are finally playing at home again after 3 straight road games, and are definitely, desperate mode, as they need to win every game possible to stand a chance at even getting a NIT bid. Unless they pull off a miracle and win the conf tournament they are not going dancing.
Utah coming off a home sweep of the Wash schools. The week before on the road they were swept by the Oregon Schools. Just a different venue when you are away from home and it's very tough to win conf games on the road.
I have no trends or reasoning for this play. Simply put, I'm betting the home team and expect little Alford and Hamilton to play well enough and keep the crowd into it and get a much needed W at home.
#592 NCG/Samford over 146 -110
NCG at 10-17 and 9-11 ats scoring 72.1 ppg giving up 74.4 ppg for a diff of -2.3
Samford at 12-16 and 11-13 ats scoring 74.2 ppg giving up 74.0 ppg for a diff of 0.2
O/U ats numbers
NCG at 12-8 on the O/U: at home are 3-5 and away 9-3 (they are away)
Samford at 12-12 on the O/U: at home 4-5 and away 8-7. (ok, not so great)
I have it at 147 going by the math on the numbers. Last time they met at NCG score was 86-78 (164) with a line set at 142.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UNC Greensboro's last 5 games on the road (road it is)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UNC Greensboro's last 5 games when playing on the road against Samford (good)
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Samford's last 6 games (good, scoring points like coach Padgett wants)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Samford's last 6 games at home (scre them points at home, keep the fans interested)
The last 6 have gone over with the total scores at:
line for this game bet at 146 (had to go for it)
164
157
148
167
166
146
good luck everyone
Charlotte at 10-15 and 16-7 ats scoring 78.0 ppg giving up 79.8 ppg for a diff of -1.8
Marshall at 13-12 and 15-9 ats scoring 85.0 ppg giving up 84.0 ppg or a diff of 1.0
O/U ats numbers
Charlotte are 14-8-1 on the o/u: at home are 8-5-1 and away 6-3 (they are away today)
Marshall are 15-9 on the o/u: at home 7-4 and away 8-5 (they are home today)
The score in Jan 21 at Charlotte was 103-95 (198) That's going up and down and scoring mostly layups and 3's, long shots mean long rebounds which lead to fast breaks
The last 4 games in this series have gone over.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games on the road (Just the way they play under Mark Price who love to shoot the 3 ball himself)
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Marshall's last 12 games (looks like a pretty decent thing going on, score, 83.3% going over with those numbers)
Charlotte averaged 102.5 points in its last two game (both w's, why change, keep the heat on)
The two teams rank #1 & #2 in scoring offense in conf play at 93.3 and 82.9 and 3 pointers at 11.8 and 9.3 (got to like it)
Marshall has hit 10 or more 3's, 14 times this season.
Charlotte leads the conf in3 pt % at 38.7, they hit 17 in one game this year, and just hit 14 in their last game. (hope their hitting them tonight)
A very high total at 179. The totals from all games on their offenses and defenses come up to 163.4. (not like were getting a gift as jacked up)
No guarantees but I'm taking a chance that these two teams are going to go at each other and if they are at least shooting their % then there is a shot at going over.
#542 Cincy/Tulsa under 134 1/2 -110
Cincy at 19-7 and 10-11-1 ats scoring 74.2 ppg giving up 61.5 ppg for a diff of 12.7
Tulsa at 16-9 and 13-9-2 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 68.6 ppg for a diff of 5.1
O/U ats numbers
Cincy are 8-13-1 on the O/U and 7-3-1 at home and 1-10 away (away it is in this one)
Tulsa are 12-12 on the O/U and 4-8 at home and 8-4 away (home it is in this one)
So I have the numbers on my side, once again no guarantees or automatics that it pans out that way, but do have the %.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 15 games on the road (strong trend and worth the gamble for me)
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games at home (like it)
Cincy won in Jan 76-57 (133) with a line set at 136. Cincy won last year at Tulsa 56-47 (103) with a line set at 118 1/2
Cincy def 61.5 ppg, def fg % 38.8 and 3 pt def fg 35.3% (they defend)
Tulsa def 68.6 ppg, def fg %41.6 and 3 pt def fg 36.1 % ( not to shabby either)
Def rebs will be key and both teams do reb well. 2nd chance points on the offensive end could be the killer as they do pound the boards.
We also need the refs not to call the nickel and dime fouls. That always aids the offense, gets them to the ft line, and Defenses and players get cautious and don't defend because of foul trouble.
I could be way off base in this one, but thinking it will be more of a grind between two teams that need to build their resumes up to make the tournament. The way the bubble is bouncing around if you want to win you better D it up!
#584 IUFW +3 1/2 -110
SDS at 20-6 (9-3) and 13-9 ats scoring 77.4 ppg giving up 68.2 ppg for a diff of 9.2
IU-FW at 20-7 (9-3) and 17-5 ats scoring 79.4 ppg giving up 75.7 ppg for a diff of 3.7
Diff of 5, IU-FW worth 3-4 at home, we have value on this one and I like it.
I bet SDS -9 back on Jan 14 in this game and did hit it. I said I was following the strong home trends in this series and hope it would hit one more time. It did hit. Now I'm following them again in the return match at IU-FW.
The teams are tied for ast in conf at 9-3. SDS beat up on them at home like they always do. SDS are 7-6 on the road and 3-3 in conf play. Definitely a different team on the road. IU-FW are 10-1 at home and 5-1 in conf play at home.
IU-FW are 6-2 ats at home. (like it)
IU-FW have won the last 3 at home in this series by 10, 4, 7.
I thing we have a live home dog in this one and I'll gladly take my chances with the points because I do expect a close game here as the teams battle for that #1 seed for their conf tourney.
If you search back to Jan 14, I probably had my reasons for the same game but taking SDS at home in that one.
#588 UCLA -1 -110
Utah at 19-7 (8-5) and 10-13-1 ats scoring 79.1 ppg giving up 69.5 ppg for a diff of 9.7
UCLA at 14-11 (5-7) and 10-15 ats scoring 79.0 ppg giving up 76.6 ppg for a diff of 2.4
Diff of 7, I value UCLA at 4 for home, you know they aren't going to give UCLA points at home in tis match-up. I'm also glad that all the have to do is win the game and a worst I push then if by 1.
The question is we never know what UCLA team will show up. Will it be the team that has beat Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Arizona, or the team that has lost 7 conf games and some of them by large margins? UCLA are finally playing at home again after 3 straight road games, and are definitely, desperate mode, as they need to win every game possible to stand a chance at even getting a NIT bid. Unless they pull off a miracle and win the conf tournament they are not going dancing.
Utah coming off a home sweep of the Wash schools. The week before on the road they were swept by the Oregon Schools. Just a different venue when you are away from home and it's very tough to win conf games on the road.
I have no trends or reasoning for this play. Simply put, I'm betting the home team and expect little Alford and Hamilton to play well enough and keep the crowd into it and get a much needed W at home.
#592 NCG/Samford over 146 -110
NCG at 10-17 and 9-11 ats scoring 72.1 ppg giving up 74.4 ppg for a diff of -2.3
Samford at 12-16 and 11-13 ats scoring 74.2 ppg giving up 74.0 ppg for a diff of 0.2
O/U ats numbers
NCG at 12-8 on the O/U: at home are 3-5 and away 9-3 (they are away)
Samford at 12-12 on the O/U: at home 4-5 and away 8-7. (ok, not so great)
I have it at 147 going by the math on the numbers. Last time they met at NCG score was 86-78 (164) with a line set at 142.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UNC Greensboro's last 5 games on the road (road it is)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UNC Greensboro's last 5 games when playing on the road against Samford (good)
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Samford's last 6 games (good, scoring points like coach Padgett wants)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Samford's last 6 games at home (scre them points at home, keep the fans interested)
The last 6 have gone over with the total scores at:
line for this game bet at 146 (had to go for it)
164
157
148
167
166
146
good luck everyone
recap: 2-3 -1.30
Just wasn't meant to be tonight as Tulsa hits a 3 quarter shot at the half and Cincy scores with 1 sec left to go OT. Then Tulsa misses the front end of the bonus late in ot and Cincy (lane violation) would have only been down 1 but instead gets it over and hits it and the bonus which forces Cincy to foul. Doesn't matter it was a loss.
overall: 309-243 +51.10
1 unit: 275-220 +34.05
2 unit: 34-23 +17.05
#516 Charlotte/Marshall over 179 -110 L
#542 Cincy/Tulsa under 134 1/2 -110 L
#584 IUFW +3 1/2 -110 W
#588 UCLA -1 -110 L
#592 NCG/Samford over 146 -110 W
Just wasn't meant to be tonight as Tulsa hits a 3 quarter shot at the half and Cincy scores with 1 sec left to go OT. Then Tulsa misses the front end of the bonus late in ot and Cincy (lane violation) would have only been down 1 but instead gets it over and hits it and the bonus which forces Cincy to foul. Doesn't matter it was a loss.
overall: 309-243 +51.10
1 unit: 275-220 +34.05
2 unit: 34-23 +17.05
#516 Charlotte/Marshall over 179 -110 L
#542 Cincy/Tulsa under 134 1/2 -110 L
#584 IUFW +3 1/2 -110 W
#588 UCLA -1 -110 L
#592 NCG/Samford over 146 -110 W
