NCAA/NIT Tourney Plays Thread

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Thursday: 4-1

My computer crashed while typing my half-@ss angles, so I'm justing posting the plays.

ETSU +9- Medium Play

Monmouth +20 Medium Play

ULL-NCS Under 145 Regular Play

WMU -1 Regular Play

BC -1.5 Regular Play



Saturday: If you can reach 'em, or have a friend in the streets.

Manny +8 & 7.5 Large Play

Texas Tech +7 & 6.5 Medium Play

GL!

Edited thread title to NCAA Tourney Plays, to save bandwith..one thread.

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 20, 2004 at 04:00 PM.]
 

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7-3 Tourney

Manhattan 7.5 & +7 Large Play

Press Play, even at 7, can do, can do, despite interior edge to WF, look for Jaspers to give self a chance in final minutes.


Texas Tech +7 & 6.5 Medium Play

Doubt until they're out..0-1 ATS thus far is St.Joe, gonna copper 'em until they go..Knight's big game savvy & interior edge should have his bunch in game late, as they have the reach to disrupt Martelli's game from the arc, just need to keep that Philly speed in check.


DePaul +11 Small Play

Against the move, and may be blowout, as many Rnd 2 games are, especailly if lock up Demon's TD, but went small with name brand taking DD's.



Md-buy pt -2 Medium Play

Maryland was sleepwalking the other day versus a good UTEP, and needed help from refs to eke it out, but have the players to lock up McNamara..just need to keep Warrick in check.

Texas +1 Regular Play

Horns have more interior bodies, and should be able to take advantage, however Williams has them well scouted from days on the Plains, and will be game here. In the end, I look for UT to guard arc versus Heels, and if NC not on offensively, plus if Barnes frees his bunch to let loose, they should edge in savvy to get the job done.


Ill +1.5 Regular Play

Illini play better D, and despite spotting talent edge here, should out discipline a sometimes lax Bearcats, that allow too many spurts, which are often started by their bad shot selection(though the shots were falling in their 1st Rnd gm).
 

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10-5 Tourney Total..Passing too many winners, and went into teeth of very logical/probable rout MSU & Conn moves.

Today is a day where it may be just case-by-case, or a situation where certain conferences may make hay as a group, and show the country what they've got, as SEC, ACC, BE, & B-10 all have multiple national stages.

Sunday:

Pitt-Wisky Passing The Game

I originally thought Wisky due to current form, locale, and the go-to-guy edge, but upon further review didn't like hole they dug Friday, nor last ten game margins & stats.

Pitt is better team, but not in better form, as they are uglier of late, than have been all year, yet always right there in every game due to being absolute warriors..if I only had cajones..El Paso!


Kentucky -5.5 1st-Half Medium Play
UAB-Ky Over71 1st-Half Large Play

Was originally leaning Ky for game, but their mid-season form of close games coupled to UAB's propensity to stay close to teams all year nixed it for me.

UAB's loosy-goosy style serves right into the teeth of the UK transition game counters. Plus Tubby may get a better effort than average effort displayed by Cats on Friday, also UAB's run to a hun(dred) may have taken a toll?

But must respect the black coaches association angle here, as Anderson(Nolan Richardson disciple), is well versed on Ky from Hog days, & as an up-and-comer, may be played kindly?..it happens.

UK's recent run in SEC Tourney, plus memory of when Marquette & Wade caught them flatfooted last spring, may also keep UK from airing it all the way here late, with eye to next weekend?

But going off UAB-UW score, UAB may be spaghetti-legged, presenting Ky an oppurtunity to build early lead by halftime, then hit cruise-control in 2nd?


BC +6 Medium Play

Eagles play tough, and don't throw ball away much, and though somewhat pedestrian, and clearly put in their place by BE competition, still alive w/Conn, Pitt, Syr.

While GT has shown flashes of brilliance all year, and has nice size and athleticism, they are the ACC's version of Bama, which means take the number when made dog, yet go-against as chalk..they gravitate towards the competition often.

GT allows a fat FG% & doesn't tend to outrebound teams, which makes a BE squad getting three baskets look good..even a small team w/fleas..plus this game also is another possible friendly coach battle?



Vandy +4.5 Regular Play

I watched in disbelief Friday, as an average ULL was playing NCS straight up until late lockdown by Pack to close them out.

If not for Vandy's queer effort vs.UF following the MSU upset a week ago, I would like them more, as they have the size & outside shooters to present same angles ULL presented to NCS, just less up-and-down floor speed.
 

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Ill +1.5 Regular Play

Illini play better D, and despite spotting raw talent edge here, should out discipline a sometimes lax Bearcats, that allow too many spurts, which are often started by their bad shot selection(though the shots were falling in their 1st Rnd gm).

Just relisted down here, due to playing it & posting it with Saturday Plays.
 

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Tourney Tots: 14-6 Overall
Large Plays: 2-0
Medium Plays: 4-4
RegularPlays: 8-1
Small Plays: 0-1


Monday NIT:

Nebraska-Hawaii Over 130 Regular Play

1st NIT play thus far for me, two teams that both average 70, and have been getting up and down the floor of late, will have "UAB Fever" after what they saw on the tube yesterday.

GL!
 

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Great job Horse... yesterday i had ML Parlay : Illinois (won) Kansas (won) and lost on Kentucky ML ..who would had thought Kentucky will lose.
 

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Good to hear that Coolcat, there are still some oppurtunities to score this March, this forum will get you rolling, it's loaded with talent.

Sadly, UK & NCS served up the outright losses on a platter, and NCS unlike Ky, even had a chance for the cover, & though I was against one w/pass to the other game, if they would've survived, they would've made for nice go-againsts as chalk next weekend..oh well.

GL next weekend!
 

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Good right ups Shoe, and nice record. Im looking forward to your thoughts on the sweet 16. Steve Lavin made an interesting point about the UAB-Kansas game, saying Kansas isnt very deep and may gas out late, Blazers have tremendous heart. You were right about Knight, any other coach and StJoe covers that game.
 

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Hope your roll is still on Rail, as I need help with the Nevada game angle this next weekend, plus am looking forward to your exotics and Masters writeups soon.
icon_wink.gif
 

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I am looking forward to the Masters, I hope Hootie and the boys will give John Daly a wildcard, his game is perfect for this course. And John shot 20 under at Bob Hope, Won Torrey Pines, 4th at Riviera, and top 10 today at Bay Hill, yet he will probably get stiffed, while guys like Gary Player and Arnold Palmer will get to tee it off because they won a green jacket a half century ago.
 

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I almost forgot to tell you SWolfpack have 2 909 boys that start, Snyder and Pickney, Snyder will be a first draft pick in 15 months. Trent Johnson is the one of the best coaches in the country, and WAC teams have been winning everything in sight the last 10 days, not counting UTEP who got screwed. I would play the PAck late as nobody believes an ACC team could lose. Hewitt is a great recruiter but his teams dont get better and this one is no exception.
 

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Tourney Tots: 15-6 Overall
Large Plays: 2-0
Medium Plays: 4-4
RegularPlays: 9-1
Small Plays: 0-1


Wednesday NIT:

Haw-Mich Ov30.5 1st 10 Mins Small Play
Mich -2.5 -120 1st 10 Mins Small Play
Ha-Mi Ov62.5 & 63 1st Half Medium Play

Bows blew it out early versus Huskers, then mainlanders reeled 'em back in, with bad beat ending for most at TheRx.

While Michigan continued their mid-tempo paced season finish form, in finishing a good yet depleted OU(Bookout/Brown long gone) in solid fashion.

Though the numbers show a Wolverine squad that plays in the mid-sixties, they are athletic & began to drain the open trey this past month, and if presented the oppurtunity to jump teams of late, or dared to run, they can and will..just rarely presented chance versus Big-10 battle-ball crews.

Bows' longest Over streaks are three pairs of two(of which they are currently on one), while Michigan's crawl-ball was more a necessity for much of the year, with it's limited arsenal in an admittedly weak B-10(sans Ill & Wisky)..yet feeling good on current 7-3 SU run.

After what the Bows showed vs.Neb, Michigan would just be holding themselves back to play their usual game of chess, as Hawaii's finish begs to be tested early(ala young Tyson 1st Rnd TKOs).

Just a hunch, but Hawaii may attempt to stay R&R'ing, or Michigan may test 'em for spaghetti-legs..if either happens, it spells fun-time tv for a "who cares but the gamblers, or Haw/Mich vieweing audience game?"

Amaker could use the exposure of a few more TV games, and NYC is a nice stage to get his program's interest back in gear.

An ever so slight lean to Nova in revenger, but Rutger home mark must be respected, despite WVa escape job by Sacrlet Knights..El Paso!
 

The Great Govenor of California
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Thanks for the play Shoe, I also like your Gold Sheet type write ups, very informative.
 

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Tourney Tots: 18-6 Overall
Large Plays: 2-0
Medium Plays: 5-4
RegularPlays: 9-1
Small Plays: 2-1


St.Josephs -2(buy) Regular Play
St.Joe -1.5 1st Half Regular Play

As a member of the St.Joe Doubters Club, it appears I'm taking leave of my senses, but upon further review of seasons numbers, and tourney numbers(which all say tight ending), gonna go St.Joe, despite originally leaning ACC pedigree.

All the angles and analysis on this game is about Nelson-Paul, rebounding margin, & interior size edge, but upon further review, I am gonna take leap of faith on "Lil Engine That Could", as they lost how many times & to whom?..Xavier,and they're still playing!

St.Joe has moxy & a heart, that Wake hasn't shown defensively, as the Deacs play up or down to teams(quite well I must say), yet are always in it to win it.

St.Joe won their two tourney games more comfortably than the scores, while Wake lived on the edge twice.

If I look at all the stats any longer I may change my mind, as they're close, and WF wipes the glass better, yet allows a fat FG%, so I am gonna trust what I watched last week, and try to put Wake's wins over Duke, GT, NC, Md, and Cincy out of my mind..rather noticing that St.Joe took out Gonzo early, Xavier on road, and sits on a mere loss(revenger on neutral) for the year.

As a chalk team all year, and more vet savvy, I look for them to also be more focused on leading at the half, as Wake seems to be content to play slightly off pace at times.

"I think I can, I think I can,.."


UConn -4.5 1st Half Regular Play
UConn -2.5(-20)1st 10 Mins Small Play

SEC fan, but after today, it's back to Spring football talk down south, as Dores, too soft inside, too reliant on arc, and too slow if Calhoun lets his team loose to counter.

Have too much respect for the backdoor w/ this number, and really respect Vandy's heart in comeback versus NCS, but Wolfpack looked queer in both tourney games, and yet had Vandy in worse shape late than they did ULL, but didn't close it out.

Lock up Frieje and Moore, and you may have a Vandy-UF SEC Tourneyesque score here, despite UConn's late season slumber, it really comes down to whether Calhoun lets his guys loose.


Syracuse -1.5 Large Play
Syr -.5 & 1 1st Half Medium Play

Bama begged to be put out in both games thus far, yet faced a soft two foes thus far in tourney, and Stanford had eight point bulge until rally.

Bama lost to LSU twice this year, and finished 8-8 in their weak division, they rallied in the end by winning scant, to eke way into Dance.

Bama lives and dies by the arc, the same arc that they don't guard much at the other end of the floor, saving their energy for offense.

Syracuse, plays the meanest 2-3 zone in the land, which will really hurt the Tide's reliance on 3's, and Bama's big guys are going to find getting fed on the blocks into Warrick's wingspan..the same horror they experienced by Ky's Hayes, LSU's Lloreda & MSU's Roberts.

Cuse often lives dangerously for sure, yet is sitting on 7 L's, from a Conference that still has two beasts playing elsewhere, while Tide is 19-12 versus RPI #1 schedule, from conference that has shown it's @ss as expected this March.

Gonna back legendary coach and team of big game savvy!


Ok St -1.5 Regular Play
Pitt-OSU Un 59.5 1st Half Medium Play

McSorley and Domi one-on-one in the driveway for ten dimes
icon_biggrin.gif


Love Pitt's D, but they've really struggled on the other end for three weeks now, and a decided edge in shooters goes to Sutton, a veteran coach that is an HOFer vs. great young talent, and may have his best chance to get something he has laid the groundwork for at Arkansas and Kentucky, before leaving..as he & Big Country's OSU were just window dressing in '96's O'Bannon Bros run to reestablish UCLA & West coast.

Foul trouble and ref's game calling could mean everything here, but lean to awkward start for both, and will go from there at HT for 2nd Half call on total?

GL!
 

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McSorley and Domi one-on-one in the driveway for ten dimes.

Great analogy.

And nice call and Mich-Bows game, never a doubt with the total.
 

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Half sets gm total to 137.5..goes off 77 in my face..dumb move..gym ball/no D..easy over!

Sucker Bait = Impulse Betting = Lost Money
 

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Tourney Tots: 24-9 Overall
Large Plays : 2-1
Medium Plays: 6-5
RegularPlays: 13-2
Small Plays : 3-1


Alabama +9 Small Play
Ala-UC Un143 Regular Play

Was originally leaning hard to Uconn, and do expect Huskies to win rather easily, as their edge on glass & interior D, is too much for finesse Tide.

But upon looking at season numbers, it's now showing a UConn that just hasn't had to beat many good teams, especially long-armed ones with size and athleticism, like Alabama.

Even though it was just a fun OOC tilt where the game could be deceiving(missing player), the team that most resembles Alabama's game is UNC, and UConn lost 86-83.

If, and it's a big if, the Tide coach can geek his soft players to ball the whole game, and not allow the open 3s nor easy putbacks off the offensive glass that they allow with such regularity..the backdoor may be open.

Bama, like GT from the ACC is the classic "class underachiever", they're lazy and coast, but when presented a challenge, can play up to a great team..thus both bad chalk/tough dogs..this further demonstrated by Bama's always being in games despite bad rebound margins(3=great equalizer).

Okafor's back is still hurting him obviously, and if Pettway can have a good defensive game vs Gordon & cohorts..?

UConn is solid Under team of late, and though Bama is a whopping 14-5 Over to year, just 2-3 of late.

Most tourney-grade teams tend to stay within the 7 to 11 point range of Huskies, and Bama has the the FT% edge, so if the 3's are falling and the Tide's D comes balling..

SEC glory going down today, but may go down fighting?..may be the 1st game to come short weekend?


Ok St -2.5 & 3 Large Play
Ok St Ov35 & 35.5 1st Half Regular Play

I've doubted St.Joe's all along, and the last time that they've faced a team with OSU's inside/outside attack was Xavier in a revenger on neutral, as their year has been stellar, yet their competition lacking.

St.Joe is just giving up too much of their achilles heel versus OSU, rebounds and interior scoring edge.

St.Joe has played two soft teams of late, and had to hold them off, in contrast OSU cruised a bit over a Memphis team that had roared to season finish & a Pitt squad that despite being second fiddle to UConn was still a top 5 team.

St.Joe when playing top-notch teams has to have almost everything click from their area of strengths to eke by, where a team like OSU can play variable tempos or rely on a wider array of go-to-guys.

A lone loss in revenger to Xavier is a scary team, yet OSU has but 3 L's(all very close..1 OOC) from a stiffer conference by far.

Noble effort expected, yet think the bubble bursts.

P.S. Though passing until possible HT play, lean Under, as despite reputations as scorers, both teams sit around mendoza to totals, as linemakers have kept high bars.

Lately, OSU is 6 of 8 Under, while St.Joe is 6 of 10 Under..Martelli may need to slow it down to give self chance late?
 

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Very impressive Shoe, with limited options it gets tougher. Im going to root for Xavier, but my money is going on Lady Vols -7 and Adam Scott +220.
 

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Rail, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades..still sick for not buying back more w/St.Joe, even more sick I never bought the hook.

a) I was ready to pull trigger on UConn, then went small Bama, then coppered total also, knowing Tide 14-5 Over..no alibi

b) The world was on OSU, into teeth of #1 seed/lone loss with overlay, but did wind up Under for lone plus play of the day late.

Actually pondering LTU on ML in dykeball play today, as I considered yet passed ND, UGa & LSU Saturday..it was that kind of day yesterday.

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 28, 2004 at 06:30 AM.]
 

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