Western Michigan @ Akron -12
WM at 4-9 and 5-5 ats scoring 73.9 ppg giving up 79.1 ppg for a diff of -5.2
Akron at 11-3 and 3-6-1 ats scoring 79.5 ppg giving up 68.4 ppg for a diff of 11.1
Diff of 16 and Akron worth 3-4 at home, llne could be 19 or so. I like the line and will take Akron at home for the 2nd time in 4 days.
Akron with a big advantage in shooting stats.
Akron shooting 48.8% fg and 70.6% ft and 39.7% from 3 pt land making 11 a game.
WM are shoot 43.1% fg and 68,5% ft and 33.2% from 3 pt land making 5.8 a game
3 pt shooting alone would be the cover if that stayed to numbers, let alone ft and fg %,
Turnover advantage also to Akron as WM is sloppy averaging 15 a game.
Last time out WM lost to Ohio by 31 as 10 point dogs
Akron won by 5 over Bowling Green did not cover the 10 as BG actually played a nice game.
I'm sure coach was happy to get the W but not happy with his team not putting BG away.
I really think this one could easily end up pretty bad with a lot of effort by the home team,
Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road. (just aren't a good road team by far)
Western Michigan is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Akron ( Akron has obviously done well at home in this series)
So it comes down o two teams going in opposite directions. I'm taking the home team tha has the shooters and a lot more Mo on their side. WM having one of those seasons where things just go wrong. Injuries, players getting in big trouble with the law, and just a lack of effort, are things that WM has had to try and over come this season.
I'm fading them once again on the road.
Rhode Island @ Dayton -4
Rhode Island at 10-4 and 7-6 ats scoring 75.6 ppg giving up 64.0 ppg for a diff of 11.6
Dayton at 11-3 and 8-4 ats scoring 77.5 ppg giving up 65.3 ppg for a diff of 12.2
Diff of less than 1 and I value Dayton worth 4-5 at home. Line is right there and Rhode Island is 8-2 ats last 10 games in this series.
Dayton still with statistical advantages on both off and def rebs, fg, ft, and 3 pointers.
And Dayton numbers are even better at home in those stats.
They split last year each winning on the road. Seems to always be a pretty tough game bewtween the two teams.
I like the veteran senior leadership of Dayton. I think they will give maximum effort at home from start to finish to get some revenge for last years home loss to Rhode.
I think that Cooke will play for Dayton tonight after sitting out last game with a sore back. He has also been nursing a wrist injury. This game is just to important for him not to play. I read where he was dressed at St Bonny game and was a game time decision. With or without him I still made the play as I like the Flyers at home.
Dayton is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Rhode Island (home)
Dayton is 5-2 ats at home so far this season (like it)
Rhode is 1-4 ats last 5 on the road (like it)
Oakland @ Valpo -4
Oakland at 12-3 and 6-5-1 ats scoring 80.2 ppg giving up 67.3 ppg for a diff of 12.9
Valpo at 11-3 and 6-5 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 71.7 ppg for a diff of 4.7
Diff of 8 in favor of Oak. Valpo worth 4-5 at home. Oakland by off & def numbers would be a 3-5 point fav. Appears to be a lot ov value on Oakland + the points. But yet I'm taking the home team at -4. No wonder I'm losing!
Valparaiso is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland (I took Valpo)
Oakland is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games on the road (can play on the road)
Oakland leads in almost every stat on the chart. (yet I took Valpo)
Reason for taking Valpo: Why are they the fav when nothing about this matchup favors them? Why, Why, Why, Public bet maybe, hell the general public is out partying on Friday night and couldn't give a rats ass about Oakland Valpo game.
Only us degenerates who try to help one an other out on these forums because we have the fever and we think we can win so we do our home work and it's been wrong a lot lately for me, are playing games on a Friday night.
I played Valpo for one reason only: I personally think they will come out with intensity and get the job done at home for the win and beat this number with a super performance.
Going with my gut on this game!
Still looking a t Monmouth, Ohio, my gut also likes them even though the points look good with Iona and Kent.
good luck my firends
