NBA -- Saturday, November 20...

[brewers7]

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Preseason: Games bet: 22-18-1 (+2.75 Units), Overall Preseason record: 65-44-2
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Futures play: Detroit +525 to win championship (1.5 units)
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Main Card YTD: 17-8-1 (+8.55 units)
Sides: 9-6-1 (+1.65 units), Totals: 8-2 (+6.90 units)

Added Plays YTD: 4-7 (-2.00 units)
Sides: 3-5 (-1.35 units), Totals: 1-2 (-0.65 units)

Other plays YTD: 8-14 (-1.10 units)
2nd-Halves: 5-1 (+3.45 units)-----1st-Halves: 1-2 (-0.10 units)-----1st-Quarters: 0-4 (-2.85 units)
2nd-Quarters: 0-1-1 (-0.55 units)-----3rd-Quarters: 0-1 (-0.60 units)----- 4th-Quarters 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-0.15 units)-----Teasers: 1-3-1 (-2.50 units)-----R-Robins: 1-0 (+2.20 units)

Leans YTD: 21-27-2, (Sides: 12-16, Totals: 9-11-2)
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Note: My bet range generally goes from 0.5 to 5 units...I don't go above 3 units very often…Even though I use Pinnacle a lot, for grading purposes here, I will employ a -110 line for all straight plays…
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We have an afternoon game which ends up being my top side play, and top overall play...I don't know if I'll be adding anything or not...

Houston Rockets +1.5 (1 unit)

The Rockets are falling WAY BELOW expectations thus far to start the 2004-05 campaign...Coach Jeff Van Gundy isn't happy as he called the team's first practice since November 10th to hash out everything that has been going wrong for the Rockets as of late, and the list isn't a short one...Van Gundy is even calling out Yao and T-Mac to a degree, saying he needs the leaders of the team to perform...Jim Jackson said the theme to Friday's practice was: "How bad do we want it?"...

Capping the NBA is all about capping situations...You can have all of the basic trends and all of the power/efficiency ratings in the world and that will only take you so far...You have to watch how the season progresses and remember revenge spots from earlier in the season or even the previous season...There will be plenty of spots during the year where "situations" and key trends fall just right and you have yourselves an easy winner...That doesn't happen too often in November, but I believe this game fits the bill a bit...

Motivation...Which team is motivated more in a given situation?...That's what capping the NBA is all about...

The Clips are off to a great start and are playing well, while Houston is struggling mightily out of the gate...The Rockets haven't lost 3 in a row yet (have lost 2 in a row 3 times now) and I don't expect them to lose tonight...They want to get back on track and even if they lose, it will NOT be due to a lack of effort...Look for T-Mac and possibly Yao to have big games as I will take a motivated Rockets team today...

Don't know if I'll play these, but I like Utah -7 and the Nets game Under 181 (top total)...I doubt if we'll see a line on the Pacers game after the Detroit debacle and the suspensions as I don't know if Indy can even suit the NBA minimum 8 players tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7

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Please note: [color=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/color]...
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Main Card:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+1.00 units)
Last 3 days: 2-1 (-0.25 units)
Last 7 days: 5-2 (+2.75 units)
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Words of advice: Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Stay humble…Act professional…
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[brewers7]

Vegas has released a line on the Pacers' game...

Can't believe Vegas released a line and of course, I cannot help myself here:

Adding:

Orlando Magic -7.5 (1/2 unit)

Orlando/Indy Under 181.5 (1/2 unit)

Reminds me of the Clippers game at Conseco on November 10 when Indy was short-handed and lost 102-68...Well, Indy is even more short-handed this time...Heck, anything can happen in a game like this, but I'm taking a shot here hoping the worst I do is "juice out"...

GL...

 

[Doug]

I like the under

 

[Mr.AlwaysRight]

brewers
i love that under in orlando, if i get 1 or 2 more pt its gonna be a POUND play. good luck tonight, we have a few picks we gonna be sweating for together.
GL!

 

[Doug]

I really like first half under 90. Probably start slow.

 

[brewers7]

Juiced out...Thank God...

I could see in the 2H that Orlando wasn't covering, so I was just hoping it didn't go OT...I should've pounded the 2H Under after that somewhat high-scoring 1st-half...No problem though, still a good day, and good call by you guys on the UNDER...

10 games on Sunday, let's get 'em!!...

 

[Doug]

Brewers7; You seem really good about NBA, posting good stuff. I thought you were a clown at first, when you posted a hundred times in Newbies section in a day.

I liked this play ( under) a bunch. I screwed it up though. I bet the game at 3 different books, and accidently bet the OVER at CRIS. I was due for one of those F-ups. I made small play on Q1 under, lost by 1, medium play on half under ( push), and large on game ( I thought !). I still had more on under than over, but it was a costly error.

I liked the half under so OT couldn't mess it up, or fouls at the end.

I felt better about half under 90, after placing full game bets. I think that was the best option, even though it only pushed.

What do you think ? You are showing good stuff in your brief time here, keep it up.

 

[winbet]

Appreciate the work you put in

 

[brewers7]

DougJ:

I felt like a TOTAL jackass making, like 80 posts that day, BUT, I was dying to be in the NBA contest and you had to have 100 posts to be in the contest, so I went in there and welcomed about 20 people and did my best not to have too many wasteful posts, but there were several, i must admit...

I'm new here, but not new to capping the NBA, I have paper charts going back 11 years and MS-Excel spreadsheets which I am building into databases...

I just want to contribute information, knowledge and experience to a forum where there isn't a bunch of BS...I posted in 3 forums last year, and wagerline was a total joke with all the BS...

I'm not looking for views, I'm looking for wins, and if I can help a few people along the way, then I have made my contribution...

You're a good capper, too, and there are several good NBA cappers in here, and after I make all my picks and rank all my plays from 1-to-whatever, I must admit, I do a double-check with my picks with some people in here...Almost never takes me off a game, but it might stop me from making a bet if others in here are on the other side...

As far as the ORL game, my only regret was not betting more on the Under...Those 6 Indiana guys were going to get tired and slow down the pace at some point, and capping the NBA as long as I have, I should've realized this, although playing with 6 guys is a somewhat unique situation for the NBA...

All I want to do is make this forum a better place and if my insights help a little, then I am doing my job...

GL to you and thanx for the nice words...

 

[brewers7]

Just to clarify, when I say "views", I mean how many "views" a thread gets...I post at a few other forums and all people seem to care about is how many "views" they get, so they make a real eye-catching title to get people to click on their thread...Not me...No flash, just substance (hopefully)...People aren't stupid...If you have good write-ups that make sense and show you know what you are talking about (and get some winners), people will notice...

I'm just trying to help some NBA cappers who are maybe just learning the ropes...I've been doing this for 20+ years and have really fine-tuned it over the last 8+ years...I love the NBA, it is my best and favorite sport to cap, by far (NHL is my 2nd-best -- darn lockout)...