NBA -- Saturday, December 4...

[brewers7]

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Preseason: Games bet: 22-18-1 (+2.75 Units), Overall Preseason record: 65-44-2
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Futures play: Detroit +525 to win championship (1.5 units)
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Main Card YTD: 28-12-1 (+15.55 units)
Sides: 16-10-1 (+4.65 units), Totals: 12-2 (+10.90 units)

Added Plays YTD: 13-12 (+1.25 units)
Sides: 7-9-1 (-0.60 units), Totals: 6-3 (+1.85 units)

Other plays YTD: 10-17 (-2.20 units)
2nd-Halves: 6-3 (+3.40 units)-----1st-Halves: 1-2 (-0.10 units)-----1st-Quarters: 1-4 (-1.85 units)
2nd-Quarters: 0-1-1 (-0.55 units)-----3rd-Quarters: 0-1 (-0.60 units)----- 4th-Quarters 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-0.15 units)-----Teasers: 1-3-1 (-2.50 units)-----R-Robins: 1-1 (+0.70 units)

Leans YTD: 32-34-2, (Sides: 19-21, Totals: 13-13-2)
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Note: My bet range generally goes from 0.5 to 5 units...I don't go above 3 units very often…Even though I use Pinnacle a lot, for grading purposes here, I will employ a -110 line for all straight plays…
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One of my favorite NBA trends of all time is in play for 4 games tonight: A team playing their 4th game in 5 days…Check that, my actual favorite trend of all time is a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days...Remember the strike year?...1998-99, er, uh, just 1999, as the season didn’t start till FEB 5 that year and they condensed a 50-game schedule into about 80 days…That trend was $$$$$...Absolute MONEY that year…Fade the Home team playing their 3rd game in 3 days and take the Away team playing their 3rd game in 3 days...That same general principle applies to a team playing their 4th game in 5 days: Fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 days and take the Away team playing their 4th game in 5 days...

Now I said, that’s the general principle...You still got to track the trend all season to see how it’s doing and cap the games for special circumstances or trends...There actually are years where that trend reverses itself, maybe this year will be one of them, because after a 3-1 start ATS, the general trend has gone 1-5 ATS in the last 6 occurrences…So what does this mean?...Means we need to analyze further, dig deeper...The teams playing their 4th game in 5 days today: MEMP, NY, TOR & SA...

Chicago Bulls +10 (1 unit)

Yes, that's right, da Bulls...A team I rarely, rarely bet...RARELY...I HATE betting inconsistent teams, and this team is inconsistent...But if their inconsistency can give us some consistent trends...Well, then, we gotta take a shot...

Trend of the Day:

The Bulls are 4-0 ATS coming off a loss of 18 points or more this season...

They are also 0-2 ATS after wins (which gave me an easy winner last night) which brings us to their last 5 games:

Mon 22--A--PHO L 82-100
Wed 24--A--UTA W 101-99
Sat 27--A--CLE L 74-96
Wed 1---H--LAL W 92-84
Fri 3---H--MIA L 81-105

VERY inconsistent play, however, a consistent pattern is developing...This isn't enough to clinch the play for me, but the Wiz as a 10-point FAV is something that probably hasn't happened in years, AND, the Wiz have covered 7 in a row...I remember one season, maybe 4 years ago in the NBA, where (I think) EVERY Cover and Not Cover streak ended at 7 that season...Well, Miami's Not Cover streak of 7 ENDED last night, thanx to CHI, so can CHI also end another streak?...The Cover streak of 7 by WASH?...We'll see...As hot as I've been, I probably should be betting 2 units a game, but even if I was, THIS play is a 1-unit play because I just don't trust CHI, personally, even though they are the side with the most trends in their favor by far...

I have 2 Added plays which will be totals for 1/2 a unit each, to be added shortly...

Good Luck...brewers7

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ALL PICKS:
Sides: 1) Chi, 2) Mia, 3) Memp, 4) Port, 5) NO, 6) Utah, 7) Milw, 8) LAC, 9) Ind, 10) Hou, 11) NY, 12) Tor, 13) NJ
Totals: 1) NO un, 2) Hou ov, 3) Utah ov, 4) NJ ov, 5) NY ov, 6) Memp un, 7) Mia un, 8) Chi ov, 9) LAC un, 10) Ind un, 11) Milw un, 12) Port un, 13) Tor ov
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Please note: [color=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/color]...
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Main Card:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+1.00 units)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+4.00 units)
Last 7 days: 5-2 (+3.25 units)
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Words of advice: Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Stay humble…Act professional…
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[brewers7]

adding...

Adding:

Detroit/New Orleans Under 171.5 (1/2 unit)

Since Larry Brown has returned to the bench after hip-replacement surgery, he has put the focus back on defense...The result?...6 straight Unders, 4 of those EASY unders...And since Jamaal Magliore has gone down with a fractured finger (out 10-to-12 weeks) the Hornets have become a stone Under, going Under 6 straight (in regulation) themselves...It's a low number, but worth a shot to me...

Philadelphia/Houston Over 179.5 (1/2 unit)

Jeff Van Gundy may finally be opening up the offense a bit...He's making changes in his rotation, he had a talk with T-Mac before the Dallas game and T-Mac responded with 48 points...After 3 straight Unders and 7-out-of-10 Unders from HOU, the Dallas game was an Over in regulation and I feel you might see a few Overs here for a stretch from them...Plus, add the fact that the Sixers have played 3 sets of Bk-to-Bk games and have gone Over in all 3 of the back-end games...I think it'll be close, but this one should just scratch the 180 mark...

GL...

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Hey brewers good luck tonight..Nice to see that you are near the Top in BCN contest...I looked through your old threads and cant find your email..mine is peterosejr@hotmail.com also MSN address as well..Have a good day....

 

[winbet]

One of my favorite NBA trends of all time is in play for 4 games tonight: A team playing their 4th game in 5 days…Check that, my actual favorite trend of all time is a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days...Remember the strike year?...1998-99, er, uh, just 1999, as the season didn’t start till FEB 5 that year and they condensed a 50-game schedule into about 80 days…That trend was $$$$$...Absolute MONEY that year…Fade the Home team playing their 3rd game in 3 days and take the Away team playing their 3rd game in 3 days...That same general principle applies to a team playing their 4th game in 5 days: Fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 days and take the Away team playing their 4th game in 5 days...



Interesting synopsis, care to elaborate on the reasoning. :drink:

 

[brewers7]

The John Q Public's generally think a team is "too tired" playing their 4th game in 5 days on the Road...A public "square" just sees a team playing their 4th game in 5 days on the Road and says "Oh, they are tired, fade them"...

And John Q Public generally WILL take Home teams playing a 4-of-5 because they figure that they are at Home, and didn't travel...Plus the public likes taking Homes teams to begin with...

And Heck, sometimes the public is right...Especially if a Road team just had an emotional win the night before over a rival team...

But as a general rule, Vegas will over-adjust the line for teams playing 4-of-5 on the Road because of the betting public...

I'll have to check my charts to verify, but I believe this trend hit at 70% fading the home teams in 1996 and the taking the Road teams hit over 60% for the year ATS...As a matter of fact, that year, if both teams were playing their 4th game in 5 nights in a particular game, the Road team covered 75% of the time...

There have been a few years since then where the trend just didn't work AT ALL, so I had to ignore it about 1/2 way thru the season...

You STILL have to cap the games...There are always extenuating circumstances that will take me off this general trend...

The trend is ICE COLD right now, not covering 5-of-6, but there are 4 Road teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights tonight, so we'll see if the trend stays ice cold or is about to make a comeback...

Hope this helps...

 

[brewers7]

And notice, with the trend being ice cold, I did NOT bet any of those 4 Road teams (although I picked 3 of them to cover)...

It's just something that a person who handicaps the NBA should be noticing...

 

[winbet]

Brewers,

I was just asking why, I didnt expect a thesis. Short term, you have to be applauded for your time consuming, detailed posts. However, long term, I think you have now put across to the Forum how much work you put in. Maybe a period of less detailed posts will give you more time for the important stuff. Only a thought and thanks for all your contributions.:drink:

 

[brewers7]

Noted...

I'll try and shorten the write-ups...It's hard though, being an ex-sportswriter...And I almost always ran over my limit for space alotted and my copy-editor had to start chopping stuff out...Some habits die hard, I guess...

 

[winbet]

Brewers,

If you enjoy it, then no problem. I just thought I would tell you that your work, although appreciated, is not expected to be at such a high level every post. See as you are a Writer, it is good to know that someone on this Forum has a bent for the Queen's language. :drink:

 

[brewers7]

winbet:

I enjoy writing...Since I am no longer a Sports writer, I guess I need an outlet...I discovered these Sports forums last January, I only post during the NBA season, but once I start typing, it's hard to stop...

I'll try and keep it in check, though, thanx for the heads up...