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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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A couple game 1 props

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Threes (-152)​

The Miami Heat are a good matchup for the Denver Nuggets' three-point shooters because the Heat give up a bunch of three-point attempts.

In the playoffs, Miami is permitting a three-point attempt rate of 45.0%, tied for the second-highest among postseason squads. That's a continuation of how the Heat have played defense all year long as Miami gave up the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate in the regular season (43.0%).

While Denver isn't likely to take as many three-balls as the Boston Celtics did against Miami last round, they should put up more shots from deep than they usually do, and that has me on the over on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's made threes prop.

KCP is an excellent shooter who is hitting 41.1% of his threes in the playoffs after making 42.3% from beyond the arc in the regular season. He's also been letting it fly of late, averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per night in the four-game series against the Los Angeles Lakers, a series in which he hit multiple triples in all four games. He's drilled at least two threes in 7 of his past 10 games.

Minutes shouldn't be an issue, either, as KCP has played at least 34 minutes in seven of his past nine outings.

Our model has Caldwell-Pope going 2.2 of 5.4 from three in Game 1. The -152 juice isn't fun, but the over is the side I'll be on.

Max Strus Over 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)​

The Celtics were a tough matchup for Max Strus. Not only was it difficult for him on the defensive end, Boston was really stout against two-guards this season. It resulted in Strus seeing fewer minutes in some games, with him failing to top 26 minutes in three of seven contests.

He should find things a little easier against Denver.

Pope -- Strus' likey primary defensive assignment -- isn't as much of a blow-by threat, which could ease some of the concerns Miami may have with Strus on the defensive end, and Denver was right around the league average in terms of points, rebounds and assists given up to shooting guards over the final 30 games of the regular season.

Even in a tougher spot against Boston, Strus averaged 13.2 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) for the series, which is right below this line. He went over 13.5 total PRA in four of the seven games.

We have Strus projected for 9.3 points, 3.3 boards and 1.7 dimes across 26.7 minutes for Game 1. That's a total of 14.3 PRA, and I'm a little more bullish on Strus than our algorithm is as I think that minutes total might be a tad low.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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4 team booster bet

Jokic over 27.5 pts
Gordon over .5 blocks
Butler over 39.5 pra
Vincent under 19.5 pra

$5 to win $250:popcorn:
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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A few Heat props to consider

Jimmy Butler under 25.5 points (-120)​


As Miami’s remarkable postseason campaign rages on, it’s evident that the grind is having an impact on Butler’s efficiency. After ranking in the top five in playoff scoring at the onset of these playoffs, the Heat star has now averaged just 20 ppg over his last five contests on 38% shooting from the field. Miami should get a major lift at home from its supporting cast, but that won’t necessitate Butler having to score 25+ points.


Bam Adebayo over 9.5 rebounds (+105)​


Adebayo has crashed the glass for 22 combined rebounds through the first two games of these Finals and over the last five games, he’s averaged 10.6 boards per game. When Miami last played at home in Game 6 against the Boston Celtics, the Heat big man totaled 13 rebounds. As this series shifts to South Beach, I expect him to be aggressive in the paint once again.


Max Strus over 2.5 made 3s (+140)​


After an ice-cold performance in Game 1, Strus may have reclaimed his shooting stroke after sinking four threes en route to a 14-point performance in Game 2. Over his last five contests, he’s averaged 1.8 made threes per game while attempting a healthy amount of shots from deep (6.8 per game). With a rough 0-9 three-point outing out of the way in Game 1, look for the Heat’s sharpshooter to play an impactful role in Wednesday’s matchup.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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gm4 props

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-132)​

I think this line is just a bit too low.

For the playoffs as a whole, Nikola Jokic is averaging 13.4 rebounds per game. He's snagged an average of 14.0 rebounds per night through three NBA Finals games, although that clip is heavily skewed by a 21-board effort in Game 3.

Over his past seven games, which dates back to the start of the conference finals, Jokic is averaging 14.3 rebounds per night.

Our model has Jokic forecasted for 14.6 rebounds in Game 4. I'm loving this over.

Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 Blocks (-104)​

So far in this series, Aaron Gordon has been the primary defender versus Jimmy Butler. That's good news for this prop.

We know Butler is going to have the ball in his hands a lot and will likely lead the Miami Heat in shot attempts, something Butler has done in each of the past two contests after a quiet 14-shot Game 1. That gives Gordon lots of chances to record a block.

Gordon went without a block on Wednesday night, but he'd registered at least one swat in each of his previous five games before Game 3. He's also playing big minutes, logging 36.9 minutes per night over his last 13.

A bouncy defender who is playing hefty minutes and will spend a lot of time guarding Butler, Gordon is a good bet to tally at least one block on Friday.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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A couple game 5 props

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Threes (+112)​

I've missed on this prop twice in the series as I wrote up the over for both Games 1 and 2. I still think my process was sound there, and considering the over was -140 in those two games, I'm happy to jump on it at +112.

Of course, the over is priced where it is because Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been off in this series. He's hit multiple threes in only one of the four games and isn't even taking that many shots from deep, averaging just 3.5 three-point attempts per night in the NBA Finals -- and that's happened despite him facing a Miami Heat defense that has allowed the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate in the playoffs (42.8%).

Prior to the Finals, KCP was averaging 4.9 three-point tries per game in this year's postseason, hitting an average of 2.0 of them per night. He nailed multiple threes in each of his last five games before the Finals, and while he was going to have a tough time maintaining that pace, KCP has regressed too far the other way.

We project Caldwell-Pope to go 2.2 of 5.4 from three in Game 5.

Bam Adebayo Under 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)​

Bam Adebayo has been outstanding in the NBA Finals. He's averaged 22.3 points, 12.5 boards and 3.8 assists -- a total of 38.6 points, rebounds and assists (PRA). He's arguably been Miami's best player.

But I think his numbers are bound to come down eventually.

Bam was averaging just 16.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.8 dimes -- 29.8 PRA -- in 18 playoff games this year before the NBA Finals. The biggest jump during the FInals has been how many shots he's getting as he's taking 19.8 shots per night through four games against the Denver Nuggets -- 6.0 more shots per game than he was averaging through the first three rounds.

In the regular season, Adebayo was at averages of 20.4 points, 9.2 boards and 3.2 assists (32.8 PRA) on 14.9 shots per game.

Our model is right at this line, projecting Bam to record 20.2 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists (34.4 PRA). I'm not as high on him as our model is and will be backing this under for Game 5.
 

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