NBA Playoffs Thread

[bznofx19]

my record for the regular season:
totals >> 45-22,
ATS/ML >> 15-7 (+10.01)
overall >> 60-31, 65.9%

going to stay away from totals to start off...i have a new system for sides that i have been using in baseball, i tweaked the equation to apply to the NBA and will start using it in the playoffs. Here are the picks for the first games (units are "to win"):

Washington +5 (-104) (3.35)
San Antonio -8.5 (-110) (1.33)
LA Clippers -5 (-105) (1)
Indiana +7 (-105) (4.89)
Memphis +7 (-108) (2.45)

 

[vegasdon]

I like the Indiana Play and Indiana for the series also.

 

[charliepeete]

MAN I THOUGHT WE WERE CRUSHING THEM WITH THE OVER AND UNDERS???????????????? HOW STRONG ARE THESE SIDES??????????????????????uppy:

 

[bznofx19]

here would be the projections for the respective matchups for game 1:

ind/nj -- 176
lac/den -- 189
chi/mia -- 196
mil/det -- 186
mem/dal -- 175
wsh/cle -- 194
sa/sac -- 180
lal/pho -- 211

i subtracted 5 from my "raw" projections to get those to match a playoff game's slower pace (because thats about how many points vegas took off as well). we will have to see how certain teams will change their tempo before betting off of those projections for now.

 

[vegasdon]

bz - when do u plan on hitting up the totals? 2nd game into the series and are u playing any series?

 

[bznofx19]

2-3 for -.96 units

if you noticed...the vegas totals have all moved towards my projections so there isnt as much value in them right now.

matchup..proj...(vegas)
ind/nj -- 175 (176.5)
lac/den -- 188 (191)
chi/mia -- 198 (195.5)
wsh/cle -- 192 (193)
sa/sac -- 180 (182.5)

one play for Monday though:

LA Clippers/Denver UNDER 191 (-104) (1)

 

[charliepeete]

call spreadbeater and save the 10cents or should i say 8 cents in juice....................uppy:

 

[bznofx19]

this game is about to get out of control...i've had enough games in the MLB that have screwed me over today so i am going to try and "middle" this one, can't afford another bad beat:

Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Clippers OVER 94 2nd Half +107 (1)

 

[thewiscokid]

agreed, let's cash this

 

[bznofx19]

what a finish!!! the den/lac finished right at a 185...so i got the "middle"

2-0, +2.03 units today

4-3, +1.07 units for the playoffs.

 

[bznofx19]

matchup..proj...(vegas)
ind/nj -- 175 (176.5)
wsh/cle -- 192 (194)
sa/sac -- 183 (185)

not much value in the totals today..i doubt all 3 games would go 'over' today'. the 'under' will probably go 2-1 today, but i will pass on the totals today. here are 2 sides (both are "to win" as always):

Washington +4 (-103) (2)
Indiana +7 (-103) (2)

 

[Tulsa]

Good luck. tulsa

 

[bznofx19]

5-4 for +.95 units

2 plays for wednesday:

mil/det OV 185½ (-102) (1)
mem/dal UN 182 (-103) (2½)

 

[bznofx19]

2-0 for +3.5 units today.

overall: 7-4, +4.45
totals: 4-0

 

[teazeman]

nice work sir.

 

[charliepeete]

congrats i was plus 2 units same on both ....................congrats:money8: uppy:

 

[bznofx19]

projections for thursday:

teams......proj....(vegas line)
nj/ind......176..... (174)
mia/chi....193......(200)
lac/den....204½...(194)

the 2 plays, based on these projections:

mia/chi UN 200 (-108) (2½)
lac/den OV 194 (-105) (1)

 

[charliepeete]

thnaks for the early post and good luck...............uppy:

 

[parlayin]

how do you determine unit ratings? your projection is off more for the den game than chi, but you have the chi under rated higher. why?

 

[bznofx19]

adding:

Bulls +1 (+100) (1½)

recap:

mia/chi UN 200 (-108) (2½)
lac/den OV 194 (-105) (1)
Bulls +1 (+100) (1½)