NBA 2009 Week 4...

[brewers7]

6-4, +$1480

investment plays:
1-0, +$1000

action plays:
5-4, +$480

Changing the amounts for the "action" and "investment" plays to something more realistic as the numbers I originally had listed simply are nowhere near what my bankroll (even when I did this full-time for a spell) could realistically handle...

It'll be like this on the 1/10 to 10/10 European strength-of-play ranking system:

Action: $200 = 1, $300 = 2, $400 = 3, $500 = 4, $600 = 5
Investment: $700 = 6, $800 = 7, $900 = 8, $1000 = 9, Over $1000 = 10

Not much time today as I have a meeting coming up that I am leaving for within the hour offsite which may be a LONG one...

My top 2 plays are NJ and OKC, as both are quasi-chart-plays, but I am only going to bet:

New Jersey Nets +4.5, laying $150 to win $130
New Jersey Nets Pick, laying $50 to win $78

Why take an 0-10 team?...Motivation...Ever since their horrific start became "the worst start in franchise history", the Nets have been playing better...Played BOS tough at Home before losing in the 4Q after leading throughout much of the game...Then lost to Philly on a late 3 in the final 30 seconds...They played ORL tough for a half on the Road and then had MIA beat until Dwayne Wade hit a buzzer-beater trey to win the game the next night...The Nets started the season on a NC5, and now have coverd 4 of 5 and the ORL Not-Cover was by about a point depending on when you got the line...So since they didn't cover vs. ORL, this is technically a quasi-chart-play instead of a regular chart-play, being a C5 immediately after the NC5...The Nets have the motivational edge here...They want to get off the "schneid"...They want this first win...They are at Home...The Pacers are coming off a big win against Boston and this is a let-down spot for them...Again, I will bet the team with the motivational edge, which is clearly NJ here...What does Indy have to prove or play for here after a big win over the Celtics?...Doesn't mean NJ will win...Doesn't mean Indy won't kill them...But I'll take the Home Dog with a team desperate for a "W" who have shown signs of life, who have played well the last 5 times out...Nets certainly have a shot to win this...

 

[gabbana]

gl man ..

 

[HacheMan]

GL Brewers

 

[HonestRob]

Best of luck! Get money! :toast:

 

[brewers7]

Damn...Just got home from a long-ass meeting and saw that score...Looks like I picked the wrong game of the 2...Should've just bet both, so I'll remember that next time...Looks like the Nets got down early and never got over the hump...36% shooting...Ouch...

Tomorrow is another day, as they say (unless there is a 2H play on the LAL game)...

 

[Dwight_Schrute]

I'm looking hard at this 2nd half under in LAL. I would like your thoughts before i put it in

 

[brewers7]

I'm looking hard at this 2nd half under in LAL. I would like your thoughts before i put it in

Man, I dunno...I have no opinion either way, but 93.5 may be a slight over-adjustment downward based on the 1H score when you consider the 1H line...Vegas will often do this to take away some hedging options...I honestly have no opinion here...No discernible edge for me either way...

 

[brewers7]

Totally swamped today and I just now got a few minutes to hopefully cap some games...

Don't know if I'll bet anything but just some tidbits...

Philly is a chart-play for sure...NC6 and then covered last time out and the best part about that Cover was that they lost, which makes the chart-play stronger...

There is a "trend" I have used in the past called "Brewers7 was on this team one game too soon" and this applies to NJ...I may have been on them one game too soon as they play atMILW tonight getting 9, and I may have faded Indy one night too soon as I really like the the Knicks tonight as they have had 4 days rest to collect themselves and lick their wounds and bounce back after losing 6 straight...NY may win this straight up, but do i take a bad team 2 nigths in a row against a hot Indy team?...

OKC and DET both playing their 4th game in 5 nights and they are on the Road, which makes both automatic picks for me tonight, but whether I actually bet them or not, who knows, but I like those points in both instances...

Miami also jumps out at me as a play in a bounce-back spot off a loss last night going up against red-hot ATL...Again, do I go against a scorching hot team?...Dunno, but I like MIA and the points...

Hate to pick and choose which ones to bet out of these after I picked the wrong one to bet last night, so I may bet a few of these, we'll see...

 

[Vegas83]

Great insight as always, more and more research I do I love the CHART PLAYS. Similiar to stocks, I always follow certain charts, actually no I have a program that does that to make it quicker to spot the right entry points.

 

[brewers7]

Busy night, but as it slows down I will wait for half-time lines and see what things look like...

Top 2 plays are NY and MIA...

No bets as of now as I hate to place bets when I feel rushed...Things will slow down enough (I hope) that I can analyze things at the half and see if those 2 (or others) are still worth playing at the half...

I am backing off Philly a little and won't play them because CHAR has lost 5 straight, so despite the strong chart-play, I am not touching that one unless the 2H line presents something...

 

[Vegas83]

So the chart play PHI was going against Char that lost 5 ATS so that made it a no play? If it was going against anything with no streaks it would have been a play?

 

[brewers7]

So the chart play PHI was going against Char that lost 5 ATS so that made it a no play? If it was going against anything with no streaks it would have been a play?

Right...The 5-game losing streak by CHAR coming into that game cancelled out the Philly chart-play as a bet for me...And that result was basically right on the Vegas line...

Remember I mention all the time that these trends I have (and I have many if you look at my database sample) I use as guides...They "alert" me to possible plays...

For instance, another "alert" for me is when a team shoots 33% or less from the Field their last game...

So far this season, teams that shoot 33% or less their previous game is 3-1 ATS their next game and the only loss was by a single point (Minny at Memp on NOV 14)...

Along those lines, I also have an "alert" when a team shoots 60% or higher from the field their previous game...In this instance, I would fade this team their next game and this "method" is 2-1 ATS so far on the season...And as of this moment, DEN shot 61.5% their last game vs. Toronto, so technically, we should fade them their next game...

Do I follow this blindly?...

Of course not...

The 60% "thing" works better when non-elite teams shoot at least 60% their previous game in the long run...And the 33% "thing" I am fairly sure works better when very good teams shoot 33% or less their previous game...Bad teams don't fare as well, generally speaking...

Again, I use all of these "things" (trends) as guides when looking at possible bets...

Being as busy as I was at work today/tonight, I didn't get a chance to mention that fading PORT WED night was a big chart-play...

Had I had more time to examine the board more closely, this would have been a bet...Had I been doing this professionaly like I was a few years ago, this would have been a STRONG play...

Here is why:

PORT had a C6 before Not Covering at ATL last time out, so that Cover streak will reverse itself (odds are) immediately after the first Not Cover, so PORT shouldn't cover a few games here...Plus, DET was a 4-games-in-5-nights Away team on WED, so this is an automatic play for me AND, this was PORT's first Home game after a long Road trip, which many of you should know is an automatic play AGAINST the Home team...

3 fairly strong betting trends pointed to DET last night, which easily meet my criteria for a not just a bet, but a fairly big bet...

But I was too busy at work to notice it in time...

DET did Cover by the way, despite getting down double-digits at the half and being down 20 in the 2H...

Anyway, maybe I should quit my job to free up more time to do this...Or, maybe not...I love this sh*t, though, that's for sure...Wish I was doing this full-time again...Just too busy right now...

I am not afraid to pass on what I have learned over the last 27 years doing this...I don't see many people offering reasoning with their plays on forums any more, which tends to make me think they are throwing darts...I will always offer my reasoning for a play...I am basically self-taught through many, many years of doing this...I use trends as a guide and have a database that goes back to the 1991-92 season that I am still playing with (and I still haven't gotten the full potential out of my database yet, not by a long-shot)...I also have paper charts that I update daily and those paper charts have long been my Bible for alerting me to possible plays...

I know that there are people on gambling forums who want to learn how to handicap the NBA, so I offer my knowledge and experience to those who want to learn by seeing my "take" or perspective when looking at games...Maybe it makes sense to some, maybe it doesn't...But I have no problem offering advice or comparing handicapping "methods" because there isn't one right way...I am still evolving to a degree because I still feel I should always do better...I am always "striving towards handicapping perfection", which is my favorite phrase...I think once I sit down one day (or month) and really harness the power of my database, I will get there...

Anyway...

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I am not afraid to pass on what I have learned over the last 27 years doing this...I don't see many people offering reasoning with their plays on forums any more, which tends to make me think they are throwing darts...I will always offer my reasoning for a play...I am basically self-taught through many, many years of doing this...I use trends as a guide and have a database that goes back to the 1991-92 season that I am still playing with (and I still haven't gotten the full potential out of my database yet, not by a long-shot)...I also have paper charts that I update daily and those paper charts have long been my Bible for alerting me to possible plays...

I know that there are people on gambling forums who want to learn how to handicap the NBA, so I offer my knowledge and experience to those who want to learn by seeing my "take" or perspective when looking at games...Maybe it makes sense to some, maybe it doesn't...But I have no problem offering advice or comparing handicapping "methods" because there isn't one right way...I am still evolving to a degree because I still feel I should always do better...I am always "striving towards handicapping perfection", which is my favorite phrase...I think once I sit down one day (or month) and really harness the power of my database, I will get there...

Anyway...

Earned respect from me there. So true brewer. Thats why forums are worthless unless you wanna find fades. Only rare few that are great at what they do and share, Boxslayer and buffettgambler to name a few.

 

[Vegas83]

Hey Brewer, Sorry have another question:
DET was a 4-games-in-5-nights Away team on WED, so this is an automatic play

When do you play this road team on the last game of the road trip?

Great stuff, thanks for all the info, have a notbook of all trends yuo look at only have 3 or 4 at this time but I am sure I will get more.

Vegas83

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Brewer, what kind of point value would you give to a team if they were going up against an opponent who was on the back end of a B2B?

Thanks!

 

[brewers7]

Earned respect from me there. So true brewer. Thats why forums are worthless unless you wanna find fades. Only rare few that are great at what they do and share, Boxslayer and buffettgambler to name a few.

Those are 2 of the best there, for sure...I would have to kind of "re-prove" myself by posting every day to be recognized as up to par with those 2 as I rarely post through for an entire season except when I had my own forum back in the day...We'd potentially be the "Killer B's" of therx, for sure...Thanx for the comment...

Hey Brewer, Sorry have another question:
DET was a 4-games-in-5-nights Away team on WED, so this is an automatic play

When do you play this road team on the last game of the road trip?

Never apologize for asking questions as you seem like a guy who wants to learn some different perspectives of handicapping so you should ask away...

As far as DET goes, they were simply playing their 4th game in 5 nights, pure and simple...Had nothing to do with a road trip...

The 4-games-in-5-nights trend is a trend I fell in love with back in 1996, I believe, when it hit 70% for the entire season...All you had to do was take the Away team playing their 4th game in 5 nights or fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 nights and that's the percent it hit for the season...It doesn't hit at that percent annually...It has ebbs and flows and it'll get hot for 6 to 8 weeks at a time and then get ice cold for a month...

Brewer, what kind of point value would you give to a team if they were going up against an opponent who was on the back end of a B2B?

I know where you are going with this...A lot of good cappers are good numbers guys and assign values to all types of different trends...It's tough for me to do that because some teams thrive and cover like crazy in that spot and others almost never cover in that spot...Also depends what the team did on the front-end...Sorry I can't help much with that...

 

[brewers7]

First-blush looks as I glance at the board for the first time after a cursory look last night:

ORL @ BOS -- Here we go again with this angle that I used last week for 2 easy wins:

"Play the team that is playing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs the year before when they play for the first time in the new season as this is a revenge spot"...

Remember my only investment play of the season was CLE at ORL for an easy win and then I had a $600 play on DEN over LAL 2 days later for another easy win...

I saw the opening line at 7 last night and knew it would come down...I ahven't even looked at public percentages yet, but I know the public will be on ORL as BOS isn't playing all that well lately, losing 2 straight before beating GS at Home last time out and BOS has Covered just 1 time in the last 7 games...

I really don't care how bad BOS is playing when a "Statement game" shows up on the schedule...This veteran BOS team is a team that should rise up to the challenges of the season as they present themselves...The celtics have been coasting a bit, performance-wise, and what better time to step up and put together a full 48 minutes than tonight?...

The line has come down (no surprise to me) to 6, which is under the only "key" number in the NBA, which is 7 (you may get arguments from other cappers on NBA key numbers, but for me, it's 7 and that's it and even 7 is kind of debatable)...The younger brewers7 would have taken the points with a solid ORL tem every damn time in the past as I have always been a DOG player in the NBA, but I have evolved a little bit...But even when I was a strict DOG player, I would still always take the FAV if the FAV had a "statement game" situational spot, and to me, Boston has that spot tonight...

I will bet them, it's just a matter of how much...

Other Sides I am looking at are WAS and GS...

The GS play is more of a fade PORT play as fading them is still a chart-play...After a C6, PORT is now on a NC2...

And WAS is also a chart-play a had a NC6 and then just covered and beat CLE last time out so that NC streak should be reversing itself now...

CLE Over is still a chart-play as they had an Under-6 and right after that, they are now currently on an Over-5...A chart-play in its purest form...Like I said before, the longer the streak, the better the chance of the streak reversing itself as soon as it ends...Good example right there...

WAS is also on an Over-2 right after their under-5...

MILW's chart-play to the over just ended (had an Under-5, then Over-3) because they were an Under by a single point against NJ the last time out...

That's it for now...Back later with a play or 2...

 

[HacheMan]

GL Brew

 

[gabbana]

like the celtics play..might be on it too...
i allways enjoy reading your thought and writeups..bol tonight.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

6-5, +$1280

investment plays:
1-0, +$1000

action plays:
5-5, +$280

Have 3 plays to start the night...I am torn on the amount to bet with Boston...I am playing WAS and WAS Over for the minimum, but I don't want to win those 2 and then lose money for the night betting $400 on Boston when I go 2-1, but then again the opposite could happen and I could go 1-2 and virtually break even...I am not sure if Boston blows the doors off ORL tonight...I think it may be close to the line...I just feel BOS is going to show up for this one, so I have to raise the bet here,regardless of my other action...

Boston Celtics -6, laying $440 to win $400

Talked about this game at length already...Statement game for the Celtics in which I feel strongly that they will win, but the points scare me away from a bigger bet and the fact the the Road team did well in this series in the regular season, BUT hey, this is a new season...Celts should take this...

Washington Wizards +4, laying $150 to win $136
Washington Wizards Pick, laying $50 to win $75

With Jamison back for the Wizards, this looks like a completely different team as they came back to destroy CLE at Home last time out to end a NC6 streak, which makes this a chart-play for me...OKC much improved this year and this team is going to be a cover amchine if they keep getting a lot of points, but they are only 2-3 at Home and giving points here, so I'll take the Wiz...

Washington/Oklahoma City Over 194, laying $220 to win $200

Again, a chart-play here to the Over...If you look at how a lot of rookie NBA cappers would look at this game (and I also did this 20 years ago when capping totals), you see that both of these teams RARELY hit 195 in the vast majority of games this season, so how on earth can you possibly take this game Over??...And I remember a younger brewers7 losing the majority of these plays if you take it Under...Jameson adds instant offense and IMO, will add some up-and-down pace (faster tempo) for the Wiz, which of course, is condusive to Overs...And I am basically contractually obligated to bet this Over when it is this type of chart-play for the Wiz going up against a team that has 4 straight Overs coming into this game...