NBA 2008-09, Week 4 thread...

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 13-12, -$210
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 72-74-2
#1 picks: 12-9

Totals: 81-67
#1 picks: 7-14
=====================================

Day 22:

Running late today, may take the day off, not sure yet...13-13 on the season and for people who like units (which I don't, really, but for tracking purposes, I guess it is ok) I am down almost 3 units for the year...Very unspectacular, to say the least...#1 totals are 6-2 after a 1-12 start...

I have been busy with 2 charts that I'll post here...One was prompted from my 2-day stretch last week where I bet 8 games and went 3-5...Of the 5 losses, had I bet all 5 on the 1H line, I would have went 3-1-1, and this gave me flashbacks to last year where I seemed to have tons of stretches where the game line would lose, but the 1H line would win for my bets...So I had to go back and look at my #1 picks for last year in the regular season to find that over the course of the season, I have NO advantage to doing that at all...This is the chart for all of my #1 picks last year (I didn't do the results for my playoffs picks yet, but will add them):

07-08 #1 picks chart

Sides started 33-18-1 last year and Totals started 37-14...With no juice, that's up 38 units...You then see my final records for the regular season were 85-72-1 for sides and 91-66-3 for totals...Again, with no juice, up 38 units...So for the first 7 weeks and 2 days, if I bet them all (which I didn't last year) I'd be up roughly 38 units and then had broken even over the last 17 weeks...So it's a matter of riding the hot streak for all it's worth and navigating through the rest of the season picking spots...Now the previous 4 seasons for me were very similar to 07-08...This season is starting out like 03-04, where i didn't heat up till late DEC...We'll see how it goes, every season takes on a life of its own...

I also got a chart started for how I do ATS with every team...I didn't get to totals yet, but the Sides are done...It's here:

Picks ATS Chart by team

As you can see, I am 8-1-1 picking GS games and of course, the only loss was a Clippers game, and they are my worst team to pick...

I almost took yesterday off, and wish I did, but the Clips' game just grew on me as the day went on...Sh*t happens...10 years ago, I'd want to get that 3-uni loss back right away, but we have 21 weeks and 2 days left in the regular season, so there is no reason to rush anything...

I may take today off...Don't see a lot today at first blush except Port/GS over...A lot of games tomorrow, too, and some situational spots will pop up, I am sure, so I may wait till tomorrow...No reason to push anything...

Quick thoughts:

The Port/GS over jumps out at me as a possible bet...I just wonder about the Blazers with Oden back as they have gone Under 2 straight now in the 3 games he has been back...I still think PORT will get sucked into the GS pace and they have some athletes who can run if they choose to get sucked in by the fast pace GS plays...

The Bulls/Lakers h2h series has gone Under 10 straight meetings on the closing line and 12 of 13...

Not a lot of time today, but I'll add picks soon for sure, maybe some thoughts if I have time...Doubt if I will bet today...We'll see...If i would, it would be one or both of those totals...


=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[Uno]

good luck this week man.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx...

Additional thoughts:

Toronto plays Orlando and Orlando eliminated them from the playoffs last season and remember that trend about teams in this spot for the first game...I believe that trend is either 3-0 or 4-0 so far...Play on Raptors...

Also, with Devon Harris back, NJ flying over the total, so the game with CLE is now my #1 total as CLE has gone Over 6 straight as it is...CLE has DET next, may be a look-ahead for the Cavs...

Indy line not making a lot of sense, so take the Pacers...

Lakers total has moved up almost 5 points since it opened, despite h2h going Under the last 10...Both teams have good defenses in terms of FG% allowed...None of those h2h totals reached 200...Puzzling line move, IMO...

Busy day and I feel rushed and do not want to bet when I feel rushed...I might take a 2H bet if something looks good...

NO BETS

Sides:

#1 Tor +6
#2 NJ +5.5
#3 Ind -3
#4 Memp -5.5
#5 LAL -13
#6 Was -2.5
#7 Port -1.5
#8 Dal -5.5
#9 Milw +9
#10 NY +8

Totals:

#1 NJ ov 194.5
#2 LAL un 202
#3 Port ov 204.5
#4 Memp un 196.5
#5 Ind ov 207.5
#6 Was un 192.5
#7 NY ov 204.5
#8 Tor ov 193
#9 Dal un 187.5
#10 Milw ov 195.5

 

[brewers7]

Random thoughts:

Ok, the so-called horrible Eastern Conference is 14 games over .500 against the so-called powerful Western Conference as of this moment...Maybe the EAST ain't so bad this year...


WAS at ATL (-9, 200) -- How bad are the Wiz?...ATL back to reality...Missing Josh Smith undoubtedly catching up to them (http://www.82games.com/0809/0809ATL.HTM ) 2 under h2h 7 of the last 8 in regulation time...Jamison & Butler over 40 minutes each last night...

TOR at MIA (Pk, no total) -- Bosh played 44+ minutes in a loss to ORL last night...Raptors have won 5 straight h2h...Both teams are 2-0 to the Under this season in back-end of bk-2-bks...

CLE at DET (-3.5, 192) -- Under being POUNDED here early as it opened at 195...I didn't see it in time to jump on it, but this is certainly a historical Under for sure...28 of the last 35 games have gone Under...Been betting this h2h Under for several years myself...Been easy money...CLE had been Over 6 straight before going Under last night in a blow-out win at NJ...A "chart-play" for me here to the Under...DET started the season with 5 Overs and now 3 of 5 Under...With the exception of a 216 in Game 6 of the 06-07 playoffs, a 198 on 3/7/07 and a 199 in Game 1 of the 05-06 playoffs (all at DET), 32 of the last 35 games have not gone over this Vegas total of 192...Most not even close...Too bad MatchBook doesn't even have a total for this game...Disappointing...Do I give the juice at 192.5?...Total HAS to come down further, IMO...Now I do understand that BOTH teams are playing a LOT more Overs this season thus far and BOTH teams are a bit more up-tempo than past years, but I feel that these teams will at some point in this game, revert back to their M.O. against each other and play a half-court game...CLE has won 8 straight games with their win over NJ last night and LeBron is on fire...In this h2h series, DET has won 9 of the last 11 regular season games...

PHI at MIN (+3.5, 189) -- No opinions here, although Philly is hot, winning 3 straight after a 2-5 start...

LAC at OKC (-2, 188.5) -- Two horrible teams here...Of course I like the Clippers here (like an idiot)...Will I put money on the Clips yet again?...No f*cking way...Just cannot...Clips h2h here are 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS and the Under have cashed 8 of the last 10...Often, when teams that are supposed to be good, who have a bunch of new pieces, can bond well on a Road trip, which might be what the doctor ordered for the Clips as 9 pf their 10 games have been played at Staples this season and their one Road game was a back-end of a bk-2-bk, so no time for bonding there as getting sleep alone was tough enough...Clips will win this, IMO, but I don't think I can bet it...OKC Over 5 straight games and the Clips are Over 3 of 4 and would be better off running, so I do like this Over...

SAC at NO (-13.5, 193) -- SAC terrible on the Road...1-5 straight up, and oh yeah, they did win on the Road vs. the Clips...NO just 2-4 after a 3-0 start...Hornets can fix that in a hurry with SAC, a home-and-home with OKC and the hapless Clips as their next 4 games on the schedule...SAC is 0-6 SU and ATS last 6 trips to New Orleans...Probably too many points for me...5 of the last 6 Over h2h...But with no K'Mart, I'm probably looking at the Under and oh-by-the-way, NO has gone Under 6 straight...SAC Over in both of their back-ender this year, though...

DAL at HOU (no line) -- I missed out on playing DAL last night as they had never lost to CHAR and it was a chart-play on DAL...Tonight still a play on DAL...McGrady and Artest questionable...Artest hurt his ankle in the final minute last game with that game at OKC already decided, so why the coach had him in is beyond me...Serves him right...DAL has won 14 of the last 17 h2h here including 7 of the last 10 at HOU...

DEN at SA (+2, 179) -- Not really a lot to say here other than SA has yet to have an Over since the Parker injury, including going Under in the game he got hurt for 6 straight Unders...DEN is 2-0 to the Under in both of their back-enders this season...I cannot imagine Denver will have any let-up tonight at SA as they see a chance to grab a "W" against an injured Spurs team and they should be able to do what other teams have not been able to with Parker out, and that is, bury this team...Just my 2 cents...Popovich has done a great job with his personnel though since the Parker injury to go 4-1...George Karl is also a good coach (in the regular season) and I think the Nuggets stomp them tonight...

MILW at UTAH (no line) -- Schedule-makers have not been kind to MILW as this is already their SIXTH back-end of a back-to-back this season (while CLE, for example is playing their 2nd back-ender tonight, by comparison)...Utah had covered 11 straight in this h2h series before the Bucks finally covered one their last meeting on 3/12/08, losing by 4, but getting 8 points at Utah...Is this a chart-play for the Bucks??...MILW is 4-1 ATS this season in back-enders and this team has showed a lot of guts so far this season, even garnering a push last night at DEN when they were dead and buried...I guess Altitude may be a concern here, a back-to-back where Denver is the front-end and Utah is the back-end...Holy Altitude, Batman...Too bad I don't have this bk-2-bk combo tracked as I would imagine the Home-team benefactor in a bk-2-bk like this one must have a very good ATS record in theory...

CHI at PORT (-6, 192) -- Past trends between these 2 should be pretty much tossed away as these teams are very different this year...PORT just finished a 5-game road trip last night and now come home for ONE game, before trekking right back on the road to SAC and then PHOE this FRI & SAT to conclude a 4 of 5 stretch...Yes, the Blazers are 3-0 SU at Home, but this is that infamous "first game Home after a 4+ game road trip" spot and then you throw in the fact that they are right back on the Road after this one...Bulls certainly are Road-tested, to say the least, playng BOS, ORL, CLE and LAL in their 4 Road games, teams with a combined 34-8 record...So yes, the Bulls are SUPPOSED to be 0-4 on the Road...However, they are 2-2 ATS against those 4 teams on the Road...Since I already mentioned how much better the East is than the West is to this point, I feel da Bulls have a very good chance to cover this game...

 

[ZJP6050]

can't wait for the picks and leans tomorrow bud, hopefully a little earlier this time!! haha, good luck:lol:

 

[brewers7]

Is this early enough (for a bet anyway)?...Picks to come later...


================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 13-12, -$210
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 75-80-3
#1 picks: 12-10

Totals: 87-70-1
#1 picks: 7-15
=====================================

Day 23:

If I lose this bet, it'll be the last one I make on the overnight line for a while...I have tried this twice and the line has moved against me both times as I could've gotten a better line by waiting...Don't see this happening again, but I may be wrong...Also, I hate laying this juice...

BET:

Level 1 -- Cleveland/Detroit under 192.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one...28 of the last 35 games have gone Under...Been betting this h2h Under for several years myself...Been easy money...CLE had been Over 6 straight before going Under last night in a blow-out win at NJ...A "chart-play" for me here to the Under...DET started the season with 5 Overs and now 3 of 5 Under...With the exception of a 216 in Game 6 of the 06-07 playoffs, a 198 on 3/7/07 and a 199 in Game 1 of the 05-06 playoffs (all at DET), 32 of the last 35 games have not gone over this Vegas total of 192...Most not even close...I will ride this Under train one more time...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

<!-- / message -->

 

[gabbana]

this under looks temptimg but probably a public play...gl anyway brew.

 

[newmeat]

Looks like you beat the line move. GL

 

[MikRetSam]

not sure...........det pushes the ball w ai.....

 

[brewers7]

Ahhh, oh ye of little faith...But there are a lot of good cappers here, so you should ONLY play the plays you agree with...

DET is 4-0 to the over without AI and 3-3 to the Over with AI this season...

This is just an automatic play for me...Chart-play, too...Been playing this under religiously for years between these 2 teams...If it loses, it loses, I am not concerned, but this is a must play for ME, not anyone else, but ME...

Yes, DET with Stuckey in there push the ball a lot more and take it to the hoop and CLE is certainly more up-tempo this year...Vegas has already adjusted the line for the style-change...Can it fly over this total?...Certainly...Time will tell...

And I basically just about never care who the public is on...If i like a play, I take it, because the public is right more than people think...

GL to everyone tonight...

I like a lot of my Sides tonight...I think my Top 5 sides have a shot at 4-1...Tonight is the test to see how deep in the tank my Sides are...

Debating bets, but I may just stick with that total...

Sides:

#1 Den +1
#2 Chi +6.5
#3 Cle +2.5
#4 Milw +10.5
#5 LAC -1
#6 Dal +3
#7 NO -13.5
#8 Tor +3
#9 Was +7.5
#10 Phi -3.5

Totals:

#1 Cle un 192.5
#2 Tor un 188
#3 LAC ov 187.5
#4 NO un 196
#5 Milw ov 190
#6 Den un 181
#7 Was un 199.5
#8 Dal ov 190
#9 Chi ov 195
#10 Phi un 189

 

[Ortiz]

4-1 because TOR ov 188

GL Brewers !:toast:

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Good Luck Brewers..

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 14-12, +$40
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 80-85-3
#1 picks: 13-10

Totals: 92-75-1
#1 picks: 8-15
=====================================

Day 24:

I may have to bet the Pistons...Don't like missing out on the 7, but wanted to sleep on it and it's down to 6.5...Reminds me of last year when Detroit beat Boston at Boston on 12/19 and then 17 days later Boston returned the favor at Detroit...This year, we have the opposite as Boston won at Detroit 11 days ago and now they play at Boston...Ok, DET had a tough game at Home vs. CLE last night where they shot 75% from the floor in the 4Q to come back and win...But is a back-to-back really going to drain them here?...

Let's look at the numbers:

DET has only played one back-ender (more to come on that) and won at LAL easily...BOS is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS at Home when they have rest and their opponent does not...

Let's look at the boxscores:

In Detroit's only other bk-2-bk situation, they had a tough game at GS on the front-end and their starters played a lot of heavy minutes (Wallace 39+, Prince 45+, Iverson 42+, Hamilton 40+), but they still destroyed the Lakers with ease the next night at Staples...Now last night, only Sheed and AI played 40+ minutes vs. Cleveland (Sheed 41+ and Iverson 41+)...So I do not see the Pistons being drained here at all...They have a revenge-spot here and the fact that Boston eliminated them from the playoffs last year must still be in the back of their minds...

I, of course, like the Under as these 2 teams have been a STONE under in all 4 regular-season games since KG and Allen came to Boston...

I may bet this one, not sure...Indecisiveness may lead to a pass...

Sides:

#1 Det +6.5
#2 LAL -5

Totals:

#1 Det un 183.5
#2 LAL un 206

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Went ahead and bet this one:

BET:

Level 1 -- Detroit Pistons +6.5, laying $257.50 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one...Pistons have the motivational edge here, that is clear...This is a similar spot to last year, but in reverse, as Boston won at DET last time out, so the pistons have the revenge spot this time around...DET has only played one back-ender (more to come on that) and won at LAL easily...BOS is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS at Home when they have rest and their opponent does not...In Detroit's only other bk-2-bk situation, they had a tough game at GS on the front-end and their starters played a lot of heavy minutes (Wallace 39+, Prince 45+, Iverson 42+, Hamilton 40+), but they still destroyed the Lakers with ease the next night at Staples...Now last night, only Sheed and AI played 40+ minutes vs. Cleveland (Sheed 41+ and Iverson 41+)...So I do not see the Pistons being drained here at all...They have a revenge-spot here and the fact that Boston eliminated them from the playoffs last year must still be in the back of their minds...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

Damn, skip the "automatic" bet this time (Det/Bos under) and take the side and it's not even close...Go 3-1 with my picks and bet the one loser...That'll happen more than once before the season is over...It is aggravating, but that's the way it goes...14-14 on the year and down almost exactly 3 units...It's a grind right now, for sure...

I smell a possible line-move downwards here, so I will bet this now and hope beyond all hope I am not being stupid for betting the Clippers yet again...

BET:

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers +10, laying $275 to win $250 -- For those of you not familiar with the Elton Brand "drama" from this past summer with how he ended up at Philly, this article may give you an idea of what is going on here: LA Times Article...I said before the the Clips last game that going on this 3-game Road trip may be the best things that can happen to this team, giving them a chance to bond after playing 9-of-10 at Staples to start the season, and if there is a chance for this team to bond quickly, a game like this can make it happen...Brand talked Baron Davis into coming to the Clips and then after that happened, he blew town for a suitcase full of money in Philly...Davis isn't speaking to Brand, or about him to the press...The entire Clippers organization is miffed by the whole ordeal...The Clips are coming off a win, and I realize it is against the worst team in the league, but a win of any kind can be a momentum builder, especially for a team that DOES have talent, looking to get on track...The Sixers have been unpredictable, to say the least...No rhyme or reason whatsoever to their level of play...They have been unimpressive...They are coming off a loss at Minny, so there is a bounce-back spot here for the Sixers, but the motivational edge certainly lies with the Clips here...They won't say it publicly, but they want this one because of the Brand "situation"...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

 

[gabbana]

eh i dont understand why are you insisting with this clippers team..
they are full of shit and dont desearv another bet again...but gl anyway.

 

[indiana]

Brew.....

t/y and g/l on all your plays today

indy

 

[bellyputter]

eh i dont understand why are you insisting with this clippers team..
they are full of shit and dont desearv another bet again...but gl anyway.

They deserved a second-half wager Wednesday night! You might want to take a couple of English courses. :missingte

 

[gabbana]

You might want to take a couple of English courses. :missingte

yeah sure.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

They deserved a second-half wager Wednesday night! You might want to take a couple of English courses. :missingte

they are 2-9 ats, worst in the league, every once in a while a dog finds a bone.