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Think the books are trying to trick us w/ this Bama +2.5 open to +3 (65% of the action on Bama per thespread.com) line or will UGA learn from the loss in the SEC Champ?

I see it as a bit of both. I do think Metchie being out will be a factor this time around, and Brian Robinson isn't running on the Dawgs like he did Cincy. Cincy had numerous opportunities to cover, their offense was just worse than anemic. Not a fan on Stetson but think he is a substantial upgrade over Ridder.

Admittedly played Bama in the SEC Champ but I am assuming Kirby makes some noteworthy adjustments. However I do think Bama owns a very real psychological edge over UGA. Curious to everyone's opinions.
 

F me, F U
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Regardless of seeing some super obvious Vegas lines that made you wonder WTH are they thinking...recent examples IMO, SNF Packers, MNF Pitt, Tues CFB KST...if anyone just ignored lines and went w/ the obvious they were on Packers, Steelers, KST...right?

Vegas as they say just doesn't give away free money. And it sure seems like they are here in Bama +3 & even juicier Bama ML +125 (my local)...so it's expect that whatever your source is, Bama is greater in tkts and money to date.

I'll most likely be on Dawgs...but I'm also going to wait to see if there are any roster issues, specifically Covid/Omicron related. Can you imagine if Bryce Young gets sick?

I too expect or feel like Kirby held back...for the good of the SEC having 2 teams cashing vs just 1 ;) Dawgs will have to play a super clean game and stop Bryce. I think his escapability and running is a huge wildcard. He better be spied by a Dawg or it's all Bama.
 

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Great reply Vinny. I totally agree that Vegas never gives away money and Bama +3 just seems too easy. Not sure if Kirby held back some for the SEC champ but def think Alabama tried to beat Auburn with a vanilla playbook which gave them tremendous value vs UGA. I think I'll be on UGA here too, medium play.
 

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These lines/movement can play serious mind games.

First game showed me that Georgia may not be able to run the ball effectively on Alabama. I'm not sure why this will change this time around. I think a lot of Georgia backers are calling for Kirby to stick with the run game longer, but who knows if he will. He may ask Bennett to try and win the game for them if Georgia can't get anything going in the running game early on. That's not a good proposition, because Bennett is not very good when he doesn't have the running game to compliment him.

I also think the semi-finals played out perfectly for Alabama. They didn't have to do too much offensively. They were just on cruise control -- didn't look amazing, but were in control of the game from start to finish. They've had similar outings in CFP semi-finals. Meanwhile, Georgia is gonna be feeling themselves after crushing Michigan. I think it's a perfect scenario for Alabama

I think trouncing a team twice is tough, but I think Alabama is the pick here. I'm not buying the "too good to be true" angle. I think Saban can coach circles around Kirby, and the fact that they are underdogs again is gonna motivate this team.
 

F me, F U
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These lines/movement can play serious mind games.

First game showed me that Georgia may not be able to run the ball effectively on Alabama. I'm not sure why this will change this time around. I think a lot of Georgia backers are calling for Kirby to stick with the run game longer, but who knows if he will. He may ask Bennett to try and win the game for them if Georgia can't get anything going in the running game early on. That's not a good proposition, because Bennett is not very good when he doesn't have the running game to compliment him.

I also think the semi-finals played out perfectly for Alabama. They didn't have to do too much offensively. They were just on cruise control -- didn't look amazing, but were in control of the game from start to finish. They've had similar outings in CFP semi-finals. Meanwhile, Georgia is gonna be feeling themselves after crushing Michigan. I think it's a perfect scenario for Alabama

I think trouncing a team twice is tough, but I think Alabama is the pick here. I'm not buying the "too good to be true" angle. I think Saban can coach circles around Kirby, and the fact that they are underdogs again is gonna motivate this team.
Can't argue one bit...BUT, wouldn't VEGAS set line accordingly? Why not even a PK? Nope, -2.5, now -3...and very predictable to this point the majority of folks already betting are on Bama...

Bama has certainly created a monster in many who've tried to bet against and taken it in the shorts and kicking selves for betting against Saban...

This feels awfully different but I say that only cuz LINE STINKS. If I saw Bama -3...and I told others before this was our game, Bama -2 my line...if I was setting...and no way Dawgs as FAV due to SEC Champ game and what we saw...I think most would agree. Even Dawg fans I think expected to be a DOG...but SHOOT, what a curve ball.

Is Vegas this ruthless?? Maybe, maybe not...at least we have something good to debate and hash out...
 

my clock is stuck on 420 time to hit this bong
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Can't argue one bit...BUT, wouldn't VEGAS set line accordingly? Why not even a PK? Nope, -2.5, now -3...and very predictable to this point the majority of folks already betting are on Bama...

Bama has certainly created a monster in many who've tried to bet against and taken it in the shorts and kicking selves for betting against Saban...

This feels awfully different but I say that only cuz LINE STINKS. If I saw Bama -3...and I told others before this was our game, Bama -2 my line...if I was setting...and no way Dawgs as FAV due to SEC Champ game and what we saw...I think most would agree. Even Dawg fans I think expected to be a DOG...but SHOOT, what a curve ball.

Is Vegas this ruthless?? Maybe, maybe not...at least we have something good to debate and hash out...
I agree if Georgia was +3.5 would you feel that good maybe . Is it a trap so all alabama teasers are crushed at 10+ hard to imagine
 

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im at the point where if Brady or Saban are in the championship game i bet em. i can sleep at night if that loses but over the past countless years its made so much i would kick myself for betting against them and feeling like an idiot.
plenty of talent on the field. game could change with a turnover.
here is the one thing that worries me for those betting on georgia:
does kirby think they can win with just straight up football or does he think he needs a trick play or something. alabama may be in his head and he may feel like they gotta go off script. in the sec champ game in 2018 he brought in fields and went for it on 4th and 11 at midfield in a tie game with 3 minutes to go. i say this cause i think georgia can line up and compete with bama without the gimmicks, but if kirby doesnt feel that way and goes for the gadget plays more often than not it hasnt worked in his favor in this matchup.

regardless, while it may be stupid i will blindly bet saban until a trend develops that makes it not profitable anymore. im a pretty average sports gambler but over the last decade alabama has been an ATM.
 
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I agree betting on saban.... How many coaches in the last 7 yrs have beat him... Championship games included..

clemson and Lsu who both had much better QB and same good defense as GA

If vegas sets this line at -3 1/2 everyone would be on bama no question asked... vegas sets the line at bama plus 2 or 3 depending on what out there makes you scratch your head and think maybe I am wrong and Ga right side....

Gman has a point both teams playing sec teams ga blows them away bama gets lucky on several

I just didn't see much on offense when ga played michigan - nothing changed same offense does ga come into this game with a difference offense? Why now are they 2 points better... except the old saying its hard to beat a team twice... that if your anyone except saban...

Thats why he has 7 rings......
 

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No disagreement on Saban, he is the best CFB coach of my generation and probably history. It's a scary proposition going against him. Having said that his ATS record in recent National Championships isn't very good:

  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - WIN + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -3 vs. Georgia - WON + PUSH
  • Alabama -5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State - WON + COVER
I would caution betting him blindly just because of his greatness. I think the same holds true w/ Belichick, Brady and even Mahomes to this point. You can't just bet them bc of the brand, you have to analyze the matchup.

Back to the game, I think UGA learned you can't rush 4 against Young and the Bama OL. They're going to have to bring pressure i.e. Auburn, LSU. Again I think missing Metchie will hurt and has to do with the line moving since they last played. Do they have the guys to step up? Sure, they always do. I'm expecting a big game from Bolden and Billingsley. But that's hardly a given. If they're able to let anyone else but Jameson beat them I think they have a shot. They're thin at RB and like I said earlier I don't think Robinson is going to win the game for them.

Conversely betting on Stetson Bennett alone is a risky proposition. Ideally UGA would be able to use their stable of backs to just run down Bama but their run defense has been legit. That again brings us to Bennett, he's a game manager at best and in these big close games is prone to an extremely bad turnover.

It used to be the best defense would win, recently it has been the best offense won. There is no such thing as a lockdown defense against a truly great offense. I just don't think despite recent success that this is a great Bama offense compared to '19 LSU(Greatest in history), '20 Bama, Clemson with Watson and Lawrence etc...

Still lean UGA but really appreciate everyone's thoughts. Am fully aware it could be Vegas just messing with everyone, sometimes the obvious is just the obvious which would be Bama.
 
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No disagreement on Saban, he is the best CFB coach of my generation and probably history. It's a scary proposition going against him. Having said that his ATS record in recent National Championships isn't very good:

  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - WIN + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -3 vs. Georgia - WON + PUSH
  • Alabama -5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State - WON + COVER
I would caution betting him blindly just because of his greatness. I think the same holds true w/ Belichick, Brady and even Mahomes to this point. You can't just bet them bc of the brand, you have to analyze the matchup.

Back to the game, I think UGA learned you can't rush 4 against Young and the Bama OL. They're going to have to bring pressure i.e. Auburn, LSU. Again I think missing Metchie will hurt and has to do with the line moving since they last played. Do they have the guys to step up? Sure, they always do. I'm expecting a big game from Bolden and Billingsley. But that's hardly a given. If they're able to let anyone else but Jameson beat them I think they have a shot. They're thin at RB and like I said earlier I don't think Robinson is going to win the game for them.

Conversely betting on Stetson Bennett alone is a risky proposition. Ideally UGA would be able to use their stable of backs to just run down Bama but their run defense has been legit. That again brings us to Bennett, he's a game manager at best and in these big close games is prone to an extremely bad turnover.

It used to be the best defense would win, recently it has been the best offense won. There is no such thing as a lockdown defense against a truly great offense. I just don't think despite recent success that this is a great Bama offense compared to '19 LSU(Greatest in history), '20 Bama, Clemson with Watson and Lawrence etc...

Still lean UGA but really appreciate everyone's thoughts. Am fully aware it could be Vegas just messing with everyone, sometimes the obvious is just the obvious which would be Bama.
I agree this is a very interesting game to pick a side ... the above analysis on championship game bama just has to win so the covering as stated in the above game won't come into pay this time..

basically everyone just picking the winner..
 

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No disagreement on Saban, he is the best CFB coach of my generation and probably history. It's a scary proposition going against him. Having said that his ATS record in recent National Championships isn't very good:

  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - WIN + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -3 vs. Georgia - WON + PUSH
  • Alabama -5 vs. Clemson - LOST + DID NOT COVER
  • Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State - WON + COVER
I would caution betting him blindly just because of his greatness. I think the same holds true w/ Belichick, Brady and even Mahomes to this point. You can't just bet them bc of the brand, you have to analyze the matchup.

Back to the game, I think UGA learned you can't rush 4 against Young and the Bama OL. They're going to have to bring pressure i.e. Auburn, LSU. Again I think missing Metchie will hurt and has to do with the line moving since they last played. Do they have the guys to step up? Sure, they always do. I'm expecting a big game from Bolden and Billingsley. But that's hardly a given. If they're able to let anyone else but Jameson beat them I think they have a shot. They're thin at RB and like I said earlier I don't think Robinson is going to win the game for them.

Conversely betting on Stetson Bennett alone is a risky proposition. Ideally UGA would be able to use their stable of backs to just run down Bama but their run defense has been legit. That again brings us to Bennett, he's a game manager at best and in these big close games is prone to an extremely bad turnover.

It used to be the best defense would win, recently it has been the best offense won. There is no such thing as a lockdown defense against a truly great offense. I just don't think despite recent success that this is a great Bama offense compared to '19 LSU(Greatest in history), '20 Bama, Clemson with Watson and Lawrence etc...

Still lean UGA but really appreciate everyone's thoughts. Am fully aware it could be Vegas just messing with everyone, sometimes the obvious is just the obvious which would be Bama.
Of course your right. I never “load up” on such a big game cause the lines are usually pretty accurate. My point is simply, as deep as you dive if i take Georgia and they lose I would say “im such an idiot betting against Alabama.”
Your right analysis matters, but these teams are close and I don’t think there is a glaring matchup anywhere except the sideline and qb.
 

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Line of Bama + 3 is astonishing

EVERYBODY's first gut it to take the 3, it is a gift

I have seen some lines that are confusing, but I have never been more surprised

I bet offense, defense, coaching, injuries, weather, QBs, OL, home, road, turf, situational, motivational, streaks, never ever lines or line movement... but in this case I have to think GA is the bet, Vegas wants Bama money
 

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Congrats to the Dawgs bettors! Overall a great game, entertaining at least towards the end. Happy for UGA (coming from a Gators fan) finally getting over the hurdle. Dealt w/ adversity (Bennett fumble) and kept on going. Running and defense finally came through.
 

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