Name your biggest possible upsets for week 1

[GoSooners]

We usually get at least one or two big opening day upsets every year..Will we have any this year? And who will it be? Last year the big upset happened with Appy St. over Michigan. But we did have a few minor upsets and near misses. I remember Texas came very close to getting beat by Arkansas St. on opening day..And VA. Tech and Auburn both had scares put into them at home as double digit favorites..A few minor upsets were Bowling Green over Minnesota as 14 point dogs..UCF went to NC State as 8 point dogs and won..Wyoming knocked off Virginia as small dogs at home..And a game I won some good money on was Kent State pulling an upset on Iowa State to open the college season. Many of these upsets happened to teams in transition with first year coaches..I'll be listing a game here and there as I go along..Feel free to add your own..First up for me is:

Arkansas State at Texas A&M-The Aggies are a team in transisition with an entirely new coaching staff and offensive and defensive system..The players that HC Sherman have running his West Coast offense are the types of players that were drafted for an option style offense..So I can see some growing pains with Texas A&M this year..Especially early on. The first game could be a bit dicey..And judging by the Texas game last season, ASU doesn't travel to these hostile places just to collect a paycheck.

 

[SoonerBS]

With a line of +22 for ASU, I think this is tremendous value on this game as well. Good call here, GS . . . . .

 

[trentmoney]

ULL @ S Miss

ULL runs for over 250 a game, gets all their offensive stars back, and s miss playing under new coach and new qb with only 4 def starters returning

ull lost by 14 @ so car last yr opening day and only lost by 7 to FAU in ot last yr

 

[UoweDucks]

Stanford over Oregon St. on ESPN Thursday night.

 

[OTK]

UCLA @ home against Tennessee, although I'm not sure how big of an upset that is.

 

[ATP]

dont think it will happen but E Carolina may hang with V Tech like they did last year.

 

[Conan]

I think Fresno St. should be getting points at Rutgers... and they may win it outright.

 

[ToujoursPret]

dont think it will happen but E Carolina may hang with V Tech like they did last year.

ATP, don't forget the slow start ATS that VPI got off to - unusual for Beamer. I think it was a hangover from the campus massacre. They snapped outta it around mid-season. But I LOVE Skipper and the Pirates. He always gets his boys up for BCS school games. I'd stay away from this one.

 

[mws]

Arkansas State & ULL are at the top of my list as well.

 

[GoSooners]

Bowling Green at Pitt...This is by no means a strong straight up play. But it could happen..Bowling Green has 17 starters coming back from an 8-5 team, including their QB Sheehan who is a dual threat rushing and passing (64% completion LY). BG's last game was a 63-7 spanking at the hands of Tulsa in their bowl game..So I'm sure they'll be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths in this first game. And HC Brandon looks to be a pretty solid coach who should have his team ready to go. As for Pitt, as long as Cavanaugh is their OC, their probably never going to be a big threat on offense, which will probably keep BG hanging around within striking distance in this game..Not a big play because I really don't expect a big spread with the line..But we might possibly get a couple more points than we normally would have had because of BG's lopsided defeat to Tulsa and Pitt's big last game of the season win over West Va. What will be good for the BG defense in this spot is Pitt is no Tulsa when it comes to having a big play offense. Especially with a new QB running the show.....And Wannstadt has yet to show me anything as a HC both in the NFL or the college game. Until he proves me wrong, I'll still be betting against him.

 

[ToujoursPret]

Sooners, Wanny is 2-1 ATS vs non-BCSers in the first month of the season since '05. Not exactly a Bully but.....

 

[GoSooners]

Sooners, Wanny is 2-1 ATS vs non-BCSers in the first month of the season since '05. Not exactly a Bully but.....

TP...It helps to have a good team before you can call yourself a bully. 2-1 ATS isn't a big enough measuring stick for me to be swayed one way or another..Like I said, this probably wouldn't be a big play for me because the spread may not be that much. But we ARE talking about a BG team that some pick to win the MAC this season vs what has been a middle of the pack Big East team. So these two teams may not be all that far apart in the first place. I also have a nasty habit of picking on bad coaches..If Pitt was coached by somebody like a Brian Kelly or a Jim Leavitt, I wouldn't even consider Bowling Green in this spot. As a rule, inferior teams win these kinds of games for 3 reasons:

1.Bad coaching by opposing teams
2.Teams in transition with first year coaches
3.Teams who suffered very heavy graduations or preseason injuries to key skill players (especially on offense)

 

[GoSooners]

As a rule, inferior teams win these kinds of games for 3 reasons:

1.Bad coaching by opposing teams
2.Teams in transition with first year coaches
3.Teams who suffered very heavy graduations or preseason injuries to key skill players (especially on offense)

And to back up this argument, here were a few outright upsets on opening day last season: All but one of these games were lost by the favorites on their home field:

Minnesota lost to Bowling Green as 14 point favorites-Minnesota was a team in transition with a first year coach.

Iowa State lost to Kent State as 3 point favorites-Iowa State was a team in transition with first year coach Chizik..By the way I think Chizik is going to be a terrific coach..But trying to turn around a losing program with a whole new style of football takes time..There wasn't a big spread on this game, which threw alot of people off with a Big 12 team being favored by just 3 over a middle of the pack MAC team..But if your not ready your not ready. And this happens to many first year coaches in their first game.

N.C.State loses to UCF as 8 point favorites-Team in transistion with a first year coach with a team coming off a losing season.

Rice loses to a Division 2 school Nicholls State NL-Rice was coming off of their first bowl game in 45 years. But their excellent coach Todd Graham left to go coach Tulsa..In comes David Baliff from a Division 2 school, with a whole new staff and system..This was a team who was returning 15 starters off of a good team by CUSA standards, but with their third coach in 3 years ended up with just a 3-9 record..Again, despite all of the starters, it was a team in transisiton having to learn a different coaching philosophy.

Virginia loses to Wyoming as 3 point favorites-Virginia wasn't a team in transition. And they were returning 19 starters..They ended up having a good year finishing 9-4 (this was probably Groh's best team). But they had no business losing to Wyoming by 20 points. I don't care if it was on the road..They also had no business losing to Texas Tech in their bowl game after being up in that game. Groh just got outcoached in both games..Apparantly he's been outcoached in alot of games in accumulating just a 77-77 record as a head coach. By the way with a 16-19 record Dave Wannstadt has yet to reach this higher level of mediocrity.

Like I said before though, if you are a first year coach with a team in transistion, anything can happen in your first game. Just a couple years ago Dan Hawkins was coaching in his first game for Colorado and they lost to Division 2 Montana State. And it very nearly happened to first year coach Ron Prince that same year on opening day when Kansas State needed a miracle play to beat Illinois State. So right now, the main thing I'm looking for are first year coached teams..Especially the ones coming off a losing season and are favored in their first game..

 

[silver7]

Being The Selfish SOB That I Am I hope

Pitt wins by more than 10, setting up my fav. play of the 1st 2 wks. My GG @ BG. If GG look good vs NIU may get a decent #. This is a gme BG better win first Pitt & then Boise after Mn.! A lot of people are expecting a big improvement from Brewster's boys. So far I haven't seen anything that inspires me in his game day abilities. No doubt he can recruit but that's only half the battle. Hey I just realized I'm about to hit 4K in posts, when I started in Aug 2000, never thought I'd live this long. Well only 50 days to go hope I make another one. BTW Sooner BOL I always enjoy your posts re. a sport we both love NCAA Foots!!:toast:

 

[SoonerBS]

UCLA @ home against Tennessee, although I'm not sure how big of an upset that is.

UCLA has some growing to do this season: grow to rebuild, grow to heal injuries, grow to learn new offenses and defenses, etc. I just don't think betting on UCLA early in the season is going to be wise this year. I think Tennessee will win the game straight up. I don't know what the line will be as to whether there will be any value in betting them or not. I can't really see Tennessee being a dog in this game, but if they are, I'll be betting on Tennessee.

 

[Conan]

UCLA has some growing to do this season: grow to rebuild, grow to heal injuries, grow to learn new offenses and defenses, etc. I just don't think betting on UCLA early in the season is going to be wise this year. I think Tennessee will win the game straight up. I don't know what the line will be as to whether there will be any value in betting them or not. I can't really see Tennessee being a dog in this game, but if they are, I'll be betting on Tennessee.

SBS,

UCLA is actually in pretty good shape now. Their injuries last season were something just short of monumental. All healed up now. They will have a mighty fine rushing game with Kahlil Bell healthy... assured of a 1000 yd rusher if he remains in one piece. Defensively they are mostly in tact too with a great DC like Walker calling the shots again. Their biggest issue is getting something out of Olson who hasn't yet performed up to expectations. Also, the loss of Pat Cowan this past spring was huge because WHEN Olson gets hurt again, what will they have to fall back on?

But keep in mind that UCLA has been a fast starter over the years. Their weakness is playing with an inexperienced 2ndary and I'm more worried about their trip to BYU than their chances in this game. They have all the ingredients they need to shut down anybody's rushing attack. That tends to win games most of the time.

I'd also have to give the Bruins an edge in coaching in their home opener. All speculative up to this point because no one knows what offense Chow will have put in place until fall camp. He really needs Olson to step up and if he does, the Vols will be toast. Tennessee's best chance is to put a lot of pressure on Olson from the very beginning.

I don't see the UT passing game the way I see BYU's. Even beyond the QB question, that's the Bruin's big weakness. Tennessee just doesn't seem to be the team that's cut out to exploit it. (Holyshit, I just thought about their game vs Zona with Tuitama poised to break all kinds of Pac-10 passing records this year. Now that could be real bad news for UCLA.)

 

[GoSooners]

Conan...I actually think this is going to be a more potent Tennessee offense than they brought to CAL in their first game last season..Plus, they have a new OC and some outstanding skill players to work with..Despite the great coaching staff, UCLA is definitely a team in transistion coming off a losing season and returning only 9 starters. Despite having some VHT recruits in camp, I believe the Bruins could not only lose their first 2 games, they could go 1-3 or 0-4 in their first four games before they start getting their act together..I think in this case Phil Steele is dead on in rating them 7th in the PAC 10 and Blue Ribbon rating them 6th. I would be very surprised that after the mess Dorrell made of this team, they would come out of the gate this strong and ready..I've very seldom seen this happen in the past.

 

[GoSooners]

Pitt wins by more than 10, setting up my fav. play of the 1st 2 wks. My GG @ BG. If GG look good vs NIU may get a decent #. This is a gme BG better win first Pitt & then Boise after Mn.! A lot of people are expecting a big improvement from Brewster's boys. So far I haven't seen anything that inspires me in his game day abilities. No doubt he can recruit but that's only half the battle. Hey I just realized I'm about to hit 4K in posts, when I started in Aug 2000, never thought I'd live this long. Well only 50 days to go hope I make another one. BTW Sooner BOL I always enjoy your posts re. a sport we both love NCAA Foots!!:toast:

Silver...I hadn't really thought about this, but yes, we could get a decent number on Bowling Green if Pitt should somehow clean their clocks in that first game (a big if)..The fact that BG took Minnesota down on the road last year and then gets them at home this time should at least give them some confidence. Usually I would call this a sandwich game..But when it comes to MAC teams playing BCS teams, they know they have to be on their toes every game..It looks like you could be right about your GG's...Blue Ribbon has them rated dead last in their conference..Which doesn't say much for the new coaching staff..

 

[Conan]

Conan...I actually think this is going to be a more potent Tennessee offense than they brought to CAL in their first game last season..Plus, they have a new OC and some outstanding skill players to work with..Despite the great coaching staff, UCLA is definitely a team in transistion coming off a losing season and returning only 9 starters. Despite having some VHT recruits in camp, I believe the Bruins could not only lose their first 2 games, they could go 1-3 or 0-4 in their first four games before they start getting their act together..I think in this case Phil Steele is dead on in rating them 7th in the PAC 10 and Blue Ribbon rating them 6th. I would be very surprised that after the mess Dorrell made of this team, they would come out of the gate this strong and ready..I've very seldom seen this happen in the past.

I'll give you this GoSooners... UCLA is definitely in a transition phase and I'm not all that up on Tennessee's latest offense. They might have the speed at WR to do some damage but I have to say that the UCLA team is NOT in a state of disarray as has commonly been stated in the annuals. They were DECIMATED with injuries last season and that's not Dorrell's fault. I'm not sure what Chow's arrival has done to confuse things but his presence will be a good thing in the long run. So the big question is how well Chow can install his system by opening day and how well Walker can throw together a 2ndary that can stop the pass. Keep in mind that they've drafted 2nd in the Pac-10 behind USC for the past several years UNDER Dorell, so as questionable his coaching abilities have been, I would not include recruiting in that assessment. Spend a few minutes at scout.com and go back over the past few years. I think you'd be surprised.

 

[MajorGCG]

ULL @ S Miss

ULL runs for over 250 a game, gets all their offensive stars back, and s miss playing under new coach and new qb with only 4 def starters returning

ull lost by 14 @ so car last yr opening day and only lost by 7 to FAU in ot last yr

Dont underestimate Larry Fedora - he's a hell of an O mind and will put a lot of points on the board.