N. F. L. Week #10 (New Thread)

[Loves2kickass]

17-3 Overall, 5-0 Best Bets last 5 weeks. I may add to my as the lines move. These are my early wagers.


Sunday, 11/09/2017

255Pittsburgh @ 256Indianapolis +10.5, -120 BEST BET

251Minnesota @ 252Washington OVER 42, -110

257LA Chargers @ 258Jacksonville -3.5, -110

269Dallas +3, -110 @ 270Atlanta


cheersgif

 

[Loves2kickass]

PROJECTED FORMULATED LINES

Indianapolis +3.35

Minnesota/Washington 46.23

Jacksonville -8.16

Dallas -1.33

 

[JETE]

gl 2 u

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

thx again for posting

 

[Loves2kickass]

gl 2 u

Good luck to you also!

thx again for posting

Not a problem.

 

[StevieRay]

Good luck L2KA

 

[Loves2kickass]

Good luck L2KA

Thank you. You too!

 

[Loves2kickass]

For those that have been interested in my TNF numbers here they are. Keep in mind, as I've said in the past, injuries are not calculated into my formula so in a case like in this game Drew Stanton has only played in a couple games so my formulated line is with mostly Carson Palmer starting at QB for the Cards. So do with these numbers as you wish with that in mind.

Seattle -3.43, 45.74

I would lean to Seattle even though my line is less than the actual line. If you take away home field that was added, Seattle is about a 6 point favorite in regards to my formulated line and that's with Palmer behind center for the Cards. Looks as if the line is slowly climbing up so if your wagering on the Hawks I'd do it soon. I'm not wagering on this game but I did take Seattle in my football pool, FWIW.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Below are my 5 Westgate Super Contest picks. I am not wagering these. Just posting what I would select if I entered the contest.

Indianapolis +10
Jacksonville -3.5
Dallas +3
Buffalo +3
Miami +9

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight....

 

[Loves2kickass]

Good luck tonight....

Same to you

 

[Loves2kickass]

If anyone is interested in my formulated lines for a particular game let me know and I'll post it. That keeps me from posting all of them if I don't need to.

 

[Hambergler]

What do you have for the Denver/ NE game?

thanks

 

[Hambergler]

What do you have for the Denver/ NE game?

thanks

also would like to see packers / bears as well

 

[FFAssassin]

If anyone is interested in my formulated lines for a particular game let me know and I'll post it. That keeps me from posting all of them if I don't need to.

If you can post the CLE/DET lines that would be great. Thanks

 

[Loves2kickass]

What do you have for the Denver/ NE game?

thanks

New England -5.68, 48.82

If you are wagering the game I would play NE -7 or less and I would play Denver 7.5 or more.

also would like to see packers / bears as well

Green Bay -0.84, 44.17

Stats used are primarily with Rodgers in the lineup. No play for me.

If you can post the CLE/DET lines that would be great. Thanks

Detroit -10.12, 45.76

Toss up with the current spread.

 

[optimo78]

Thanks for the info. How have you done over the last few years with your system? Just curious.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Thanks for the info. How have you done over the last few years with your system? Just curious.

Good enuf for a second income. I wager my best bets 2x my average wager. All other picks listed are average wagers. I don't like the word system. I think the best way to beat the book is formulating your own lines (if you know what ur doing) and base your wagers comparing those lines with the actual line. For instance my formulated line for Indy is +3 or so. I'm not saying they will lose by a FG but rather they will cover the +10. comparing the line to my line we have a TD differential, which is large. Pitt should be favored by 10 (at the very most) at home versus Indy, not on the road.

 

[Loves2kickass]

BTW Dallas is still a average wager for me, even without Zeke.

 

[optimo78]

So next question:
how did you learn to formulate your own lines, and is this something you have to alter year to year?