My thoughts on this weekend's movies...

[SoundofSilence]

It's really pissing me off that WSEX and Olympic are so damn slow at putting up lines -- its hard to decide what bets you want to take when you don't know if another book will give you a better #.

Bad Boys 2: $55-$65 million is still my guess.. +225 isn't enough value at Intertops for me to take it OVER $60 million... I'll wait and see what WSEX and Olympic put up on their lines.

Johnny English: $14-$17 million is my guess, but again... unless the odds at Intertops work that you can take two "brackets" and show a profit if just one of them wins, its not worth it. I'll wait for WSEX and Oly.

How to Deal: Strictly a value play here, but at +300 I certainly think OVER $14 million is a solid play. Last Mandy Moore flick had a $5,050 PSA and it got good reviews. Similar movies have been in the $6-$8k PSA range, and at 2200 theaters, I think this has more than a 25% chance of hitting over $14 million. So that is my one play so far:

How to Deal OVER $14 million +300 (Intertops)


Now hurry up OLYMPIC and WSEX!

 

[Oren1]

I'm guessing that WSEX opens their lines sometime tonight, and Olympic opens theirs tomorrow night. I think that's been the pattern for a while now.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Olympic hasn't always been that way... Opening movie lines on a Thursday night that close at 10am the next morning is ridiculous... Get some better oddsmakers.

 

[Oren1]

yeah... but, do you really want them to get better oddsmakers? I like their blockbuster match-up props.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Of course mere minutes after my post, Olympic posts their lines for BB2 and Johnny English... Them actually posting them before WSEX has their lines up is a big deal, Olympic usually waits to see WSEX's opening lines and follows suit.


Bad Boys 2: O/U $48 million -115


As I said in my writeup a few days ago, I have this one pegged to do anywhere between $55-$65 million. The early reviews are bad, but generally that only effects movies that have the sneak previews -- by the time word of mouth spreads about BB2, the weekend will be over. Hitting up the OVER.

My Play: Bad Boys 2 OVER $48 million -115 (Olympic)

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Johnny English: O/U $12.5 million -115


I counted 4 comparable movies:


Bean (PG-13, $8259 PSA, competition of I Know What You Did Last Summer and Devil's Advocate)
Rat Race (PG-13, $4694 PSA, competition of American Pie 2)
Spy Hard (PG-13, $5997 PSA, competition of Mission Impossible, Flipper)
Wrongfully Accused (PG-13, $2099 PSA, competition of Dead Man On Campus, Blade)


The lowballer Wrongfully Accused is the only one that has me worried, but I think that was more due to releasing what amounts to a male-targeted comedy on the same weekend as a male-oriented action flick AND another male-oriented comedy.

English is opening up in 2100+ theaters, and if it does only as well as Spy Hard did (which was released with a big-big budget Mission Impossible and a kid oriented Flipper), it'll hit over $12.5 million. Looking at how Bean pulled in a PSA of $8259, there's obviously some big fans of his "work". $8259 PSA puts Johnny English at $17.34 million, and assuming it does even a few million less than that it still should cover the $12.5 million fairly easily. I also think it will do well as a "younger movie". It's rated PG, and Finding Nemo has started to lose some of its newness as the kid flick of the week, so I'm thinking when parents take their kids to the theaters this weekend and don't want another animated film their new choices will be Bad Boys 2, How to Deal and Johnny English -- and I gotta think Johnny English will win outta those 3.


My Play: Johnny English OVER $12.5 million -115 (Olympic)



-Sound of Silence


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Movie Wagering YTD: 15-7, +25.00 units @ 1 unit per play.

PENDING: More stars, "The Hulk" or "Bad Boys 2": "The Hulk", -120
PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million vs "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Bad Boys 2" OVER $48 million, -115
PENDING: "Johnny English" OVER $12.5 million, -115
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $14 million, +300

 

[Oren1]

oh, damn, I didn't notice that the 2.25 million opening for Bean was apparently with a screen count of 242?!.

Personally I'm not a big fan so I find that per screen average a little hard to swallow. But, it went on to make 45 million, so, hell, I don't know, maybe you'll hit that one. I think I'm going to pass one these over/unders this week. I guess I'm leaning towards the under for Bad Boys, but, you know the drill.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Oly got hit hard early... -115 lines on the OVERs up to -145 within 20 minutes of line postings.

 

[Oren1]

holy crap those lines moved fast. How long have they been up?

 

[Oren1]

****it, I'm making a small play on the under 48 at +115.

 

[Oren1]

and the public doesn't seem to like the Johny English under.

get out the lube.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I don't like taking OVERS as much as I did, but if the line they spit out is that far below the line I think it should be, I just gotta take it.