my ratings vs vegas line week 7 (stats, systems, writeups etc inside)

[w365]

winning both weeks with my annual 'line studying approach' in college football, and one of two weeks in pros with the same approach, including my biggest bet in the nfl so far (minnesota +3) that won on mnf. college database has now plenty of data and should help me improve on that 11-5 record. nfl database is getting there but will be ready to kick ass probably next week. i will post the other mid week writeups later tonight or tomorrow. so, check back later. good luck whatever you decide tonight.


TROY -4.5 @ FAU

my initial thought was to go with florida atlantic in this one. i have troy ranked 63 places better than florida atlantic and with such a big rating differential the line should have been higher than -3.5 where it opened, and even higher than -4.5 that is avaiable right now. this line is the mirror image of akron's line at kent last week. akron barely won that game by 3 in ot after trailing almost the entire game. the public is on troy in this one and public teams with such a small line are 0-7 ats so far this season with a ratings differential like this one. the other notable small road faves that failed to cover the spread in this situation so far this season were akron at kent (won by 3 in overtime), oregon state at stanford (lost outright), central florida at utep (lost big outright), oregon at purdue (won in overtime), fresno at toledo (won in overtime), ecu at ncst (lost outright) and mississippi state at louisiana tech (lost outright). note: troy is playing their third straight road game and even the well rested teams with 7-11 days of rest are 1-6-1 ats in last 8 when favored in their third straight road game. having said all that, i will stay away from this one as i was not impressed with this fau team so far this season. i see much better opportunities to make money later this week. lean: none.

 

[w365]

LOU -7 @ MEM

i'm definately not interested in this one. louisville is better ranked according to my ratings and the line is kinda accurate, or at least close to where it should be when a road teams is ranked that much better. memphis is not as good as they looked last few weeks and louisville is just unpredictable right now. not a surprise for a young rebuilding team. lean: none

 

[w365]

UAB @ HOU -18
Play: UAB +18


Those who read my blogs know that I expected UAB to perform well against the spread this season. So far they are 3-2-1 ATS and that's very solid when a small school like UAB travels to Tennessee, S.Carolina and hosts one of the best mid major teams Tulsa. That's some kind of a schedule, and to come out of it with a 3-2-1 ATS record is quite impressive. What else to like about this UAB team. I like their running game (#4 C-USA rushing offense vs #12 C-USA rushing defense in Houston), their red zone efficiency (#3 C-USA vs #7 C-USA), their turnover margin (not great but stil very solid against the kind of opposition they've faced), their number of sacks and their average time of possession. They've already seen two of the top offenses in the nation (Tulsa and Memphis) so they are not gonna be surprised with what Houston can do offensively. They've already seen two top defenses (Tennessee and S.Carolina) and Houston is no where close to these defenses. They've already travelled to two SEC places and let's face it, a game in Houston can not really scare you if you've already played in S.Carolina and in Tennessee. As for Houston, they've struggled against the spread this season (1-3 ATS), but that struggle started last year as they closed their 2007/2008 campaign with a 0-5 ATS record in final 5 lined games. This season they've played against a ECU team that was overrated and down emotionally after their game vs NCST, Colorado State that lost big to Colorado and barely edged Sacramento State (?) at home prior to their game vs Houston, Southern (Div.I-AA school) and Air Force a team that was able to beat a very bad Wyoming team, Southern Utah and Houston, while losing vs Navy and vs Utah. Finally, they've also played a B12 school (Oklahoma State) but they lost by 19, failing to cover the spread. I'm not sure that a team with a 2-3 SU and 1-3 ATS record should be favored by this many points after such a soft schedule. Case Keenum (Houston QB) has some amazing stats so far this season but I believe that UAB will be able to score enough against a defense that allows 28 ppg overall and 35 ppg against Div.-I schools.

I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20. Actually, home teams ranked 70+ better and favored by less than 20 are 0-7 ATS so far this season. This list includes Bowling Green last week (lost outright), Tulane vs SMU, Michigan vs Miami of Ohio, Texas A&M vs Army, Arkansas vs LAMO, Toledo vs FIU (lost outright) Michigan State vs FAU.

2-3 teams vs teams with 4/5 losses, not revenging a 7+ pts loss, with the line lower than +6.5 and previous line higher than +8 are 0-21 ATS. There are two other teams that fit into this system this week, other than Houston (Oregon State and NIU) but I'm not so sure that I will have any play in these games.

Houston was the part of this system last year after losing a close one at Alabama, when they were favored by 21 against Rice only to win by 8 (56:48).

 

[w365]

Good decision to stay away from FAU.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks w365..... I appreciate the insight bro

 

[w365]

CLE @ WF -2.5

Strange line. Not very often you'll see a ranked team favored by only 2.5 at home against the unranked team. The line is strange when I look to my ratings as well. However, I will not risk my money on this Clemson team. Lean: none.

 

[w365]

thanks w365..... I appreciate the insight bro

you are welcome.

 

[spreadproof]

LOU -7 @ MEM

i'm definately not interested in this one. louisville is better ranked according to my ratings and the line is kinda accurate, or at least close to where it should be when a road teams is ranked that much better. memphis is not as good as they looked last few weeks and louisville is just unpredictable right now. not a surprise for a young rebuilding team. lean: none

What about the QB situation?
....
(!) [QB] Hunter Cantwell left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/26/08
[QB] Matt Simms has been suspended for the first 4 games of season. - Disc
.......

Louisville averaging 28 ppg at home and giving up 23 ppg at home. This will be there first road game. One in which they will likely under perform the numbers they have been putting up at home.

Memphis is averaging 31.7 ppg at home and 28 ppg overall. Giving up 26.2 ppg on Defense and 23 ppg on defense at home.

Average power rating of Louisvilles apponents 32
Average power rating of Memphis apponents 26

Assuming Louisville had their QB I would agree with you, line is probably where it should be. If they are going to play a freshmen then they will get lit up.

 

[spreadproof]

UAB @ HOU -18
Play: UAB +18


Those who read my blogs know that I expected UAB to perform well against the spread this season. So far they are 3-2-1 ATS and that's very solid when a small school like UAB travels to Tennessee, S.Carolina and hosts one of the best mid major teams Tulsa. That's some kind of a schedule, and to come out of it with a 3-2-1 ATS record is quite impressive. What else to like about this UAB team. I like their running game (#4 C-USA rushing offense vs #12 C-USA rushing defense in Houston), their red zone efficiency (#3 C-USA vs #7 C-USA), their turnover margin (not great but stil very solid against the kind of opposition they've faced), their number of sacks and their average time of possession. They've already seen two of the top offenses in the nation (Tulsa and Memphis) so they are not gonna be surprised with what Houston can do offensively. They've already seen two top defenses (Tennessee and S.Carolina) and Houston is no where close to these defenses. They've already travelled to two SEC places and let's face it, a game in Houston can not really scare you if you've already played in S.Carolina and in Tennessee. As for Houston, they've struggled against the spread this season (1-3 ATS), but that struggle started last year as they closed their 2007/2008 campaign with a 0-5 ATS record in final 5 lined games. This season they've played against a ECU team that was overrated and down emotionally after their game vs NCST, Colorado State that lost big to Colorado and barely edged Sacramento State (?) at home prior to their game vs Houston, Southern (Div.I-AA school) and Air Force a team that was able to beat a very bad Wyoming team, Southern Utah and Houston, while losing vs Navy and vs Utah. Finally, they've also played a B12 school (Oklahoma State) but they lost by 19, failing to cover the spread. I'm not sure that a team with a 2-3 SU and 1-3 ATS record should be favored by this many points after such a soft schedule. Case Keenum (Houston QB) has some amazing stats so far this season but I believe that UAB will be able to score enough against a defense that allows 28 ppg overall and 35 ppg against Div.-I schools.

I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20. Actually, home teams ranked 70+ better and favored by less than 20 are 0-7 ATS so far this season. This list includes Bowling Green last week (lost outright), Tulane vs SMU, Michigan vs Miami of Ohio, Texas A&M vs Army, Arkansas vs LAMO, Toledo vs FIU (lost outright) Michigan State vs FAU.

2-3 teams vs teams with 4/5 losses, not revenging a 7+ pts loss, with the line lower than +6.5 and previous line higher than +8 are 0-21 ATS. There are two other teams that fit into this system this week, other than Houston (Oregon State and NIU) but I'm not so sure that I will have any play in these games.

Houston was the part of this system last year after losing a close one at Alabama, when they were favored by 21 against Rice only to win by 8 (56:48).

I respect your opinions and I am on the other side of this game so I just went back and looked at the why part of it all...

I've got a -25 point powerline on Houston

Play Against - Road underdogs (UAB) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 17 or more points.
(39-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Average power rating of opponents played: UAB 33.3, HOUSTON 32.4

Houston has a 68% Pass completion rate and a 7.5 pass yard average.
At home it is higher but I am factoring out the give away game against Southern.

UAB might cover but I feel more comfortable on the other side.

 

[w365]

-System of the week-

This is something I do every week. It is not necessairly the best system that I have, but usually a good system for a game that will have heavy action on both sides and totals. This is not an official play of mine, just an additional information to many of you who will have your $ on this game. If I decide to go with any of these two teams I will post it in my writeups.


The unbeaten single digit favorites, are only 5-36 ATS in last 41, against another unbeaten team in weeks 5 thru 11 if:

-Neither team has been favored by 14+ pts in the previous head to head matchup.

-The favorite did not win the previous head-to-head matchup by 25 points or more.

-The favorite did not score 44 points or more.

5-0 Oklahoma is favored by 7 against 5-0 Texas. Oklahoma was favored by 12 last year (which is less than 14), they won by 7 (which is less than 25) and they scored 28 pts (less than 44).


These favorites are also 9-25 straight up in last 34.

The system of the week suggestion: Texas +7

 

[w365]

What about the QB situation?
....
(!) [QB] Hunter Cantwell left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/26/08
[QB] Matt Simms has been suspended for the first 4 games of season. - Disc
.......

Louisville averaging 28 ppg at home and giving up 23 ppg at home. This will be there first road game. One in which they will likely under perform the numbers they have been putting up at home.

Memphis is averaging 31.7 ppg at home and 28 ppg overall. Giving up 26.2 ppg on Defense and 23 ppg on defense at home.

Average power rating of Louisvilles apponents 32
Average power rating of Memphis apponents 26

Assuming Louisville had their QB I would agree with you, line is probably where it should be. If they are going to play a freshmen then they will get lit up.

stil no opinion. i'm very unfamiliar with louisville's current roster. who knows, maybe the backup is better than the injured starter.

 

[w365]

I respect your opinions and I am on the other side of this game so I just went back and looked at the why part of it all...

I've got a -25 point powerline on Houston

Play Against - Road underdogs (UAB) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 17 or more points.
(39-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Average power rating of opponents played: UAB 33.3, HOUSTON 32.4

Houston has a 68% Pass completion rate and a 7.5 pass yard average.
At home it is higher but I am factoring out the give away game against Southern.

UAB might cover but I feel more comfortable on the other side.

Houston has more firepower and they should win, but to win, and to win by 19+ are two different things. as always i will have 1 unit (550$) on uab +18 and then some 50-100 $ on uab moneyline.

gl to you and thans for the feedback it is appreciated.

 

[fadethepublic1]

GL W365,
I have Cougars winning by 12-14 pts at most. Gives us 4-6 pts (almost a TD) advantage to play with.

As always... aloha.

 

[spreadproof]

GL W365,
I have Cougars winning by 12-14 pts at most. Gives us 4-6 pts (almost a TD) advantage to play with.

As always... aloha.

I have them winning by 21. But you guys may be right. I don't see how you could ever come up with 12-14 based on the stats. :think2:

 

[w365]

I have them winning by 21. But you guys may be right. I don't see how you could ever come up with 12-14 based on the stats. :think2:

i've been wrong before...its not a huge game for me, just an average bet and it can lose. you know, sometimes we win, sometimes we lose and sometimes it rains. don't change your opinion based on other peoples opinions, gl !

 

[Jetplane]

UAB @ HOU -18
Play: UAB +18


Those who read my blogs know that I expected UAB to perform well against the spread this season. So far they are 3-2-1 ATS and that's very solid when a small school like UAB travels to Tennessee, S.Carolina and hosts one of the best mid major teams Tulsa. That's some kind of a schedule, and to come out of it with a 3-2-1 ATS record is quite impressive. What else to like about this UAB team. I like their running game (#4 C-USA rushing offense vs #12 C-USA rushing defense in Houston), their red zone efficiency (#3 C-USA vs #7 C-USA), their turnover margin (not great but stil very solid against the kind of opposition they've faced), their number of sacks and their average time of possession. They've already seen two of the top offenses in the nation (Tulsa and Memphis) so they are not gonna be surprised with what Houston can do offensively. They've already seen two top defenses (Tennessee and S.Carolina) and Houston is no where close to these defenses. They've already travelled to two SEC places and let's face it, a game in Houston can not really scare you if you've already played in S.Carolina and in Tennessee. As for Houston, they've struggled against the spread this season (1-3 ATS), but that struggle started last year as they closed their 2007/2008 campaign with a 0-5 ATS record in final 5 lined games. This season they've played against a ECU team that was overrated and down emotionally after their game vs NCST, Colorado State that lost big to Colorado and barely edged Sacramento State (?) at home prior to their game vs Houston, Southern (Div.I-AA school) and Air Force a team that was able to beat a very bad Wyoming team, Southern Utah and Houston, while losing vs Navy and vs Utah. Finally, they've also played a B12 school (Oklahoma State) but they lost by 19, failing to cover the spread. I'm not sure that a team with a 2-3 SU and 1-3 ATS record should be favored by this many points after such a soft schedule. Case Keenum (Houston QB) has some amazing stats so far this season but I believe that UAB will be able to score enough against a defense that allows 28 ppg overall and 35 ppg against Div.-I schools.

I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20. Actually, home teams ranked 70+ better and favored by less than 20 are 0-7 ATS so far this season. This list includes Bowling Green last week (lost outright), Tulane vs SMU, Michigan vs Miami of Ohio, Texas A&M vs Army, Arkansas vs LAMO, Toledo vs FIU (lost outright) Michigan State vs FAU.

2-3 teams vs teams with 4/5 losses, not revenging a 7+ pts loss, with the line lower than +6.5 and previous line higher than +8 are 0-21 ATS. There are two other teams that fit into this system this week, other than Houston (Oregon State and NIU) but I'm not so sure that I will have any play in these games.

Houston was the part of this system last year after losing a close one at Alabama, when they were favored by 21 against Rice only to win by 8 (56:48).

I'm behind you 365... but not in deep... just supporting you because my SUGGESTED LINE is -14.5

So it seem you are on the right side to me.

 

[w365]

fwiw: i have wake forest ranked 20 places better than clemson and small home favs of less than 11.5, ranked 11-31 places better than the road teams are 0-21 ats so far this season. there are 4 other teams in this group this week. having said that i will stay away as i don't like what clemson did so far this season. however, don't be surprised if they stay within 3 pts or win outright. gl !

 

[bookiebanger]

Houston has more firepower and they should win, but to win, and to win by 19+ are two different things. as always i will have 1 unit (550$) on uab +18 and then some 50-100 $ on uab moneyline.

gl to you and thans for the feedback it is appreciated.

Love the play-but do are you putting
some on UAB ML just for the hell of it?

 

[bookiebanger]

Also, the -2.5/+8 system...I'm trying to understand it
a little bit better. So you like favorites under -3 and dogs under +8?
So for example teams like Virginia +6, South Car -1, and ND +7.5 would fit into that system?

 

[alwatts]

CLE @ WF -2.5

Strange line. Not very often you'll see a ranked team favored by only 2.5 at home against the unranked team. The line is strange when I look to my ratings as well. However, I will not risk my money on this Clemson team. Lean: none.

Clemson was ranked #20 when they lost their last game to Maryland. A game they should have won but on the other hand, Wake Forest was clearly beat and they are blaming it on overlooking Navy. Looks like Navy ran the ball very well and now here comes Clemson with both an excellent QB and a backfield and defense to back them up. Looks like Clemson is the play. Good Luck!!!!! d1g1t alwatts

http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/092708aaa.html